Tesla Delivers ~17,400 Model S Sedans In North America. We Got It Right. Again

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FEB 12 2015 BY JAY COLE 29

Tesla Delivered ~17,400 Model S Sedans In North America In 2014

Tesla Delivered ~17,400 Model S Sedans In North America In 2014

Yesterday, Tesla Motors announced 4th quarter and full year results for the company – full details can be found here.  And in so doing they reported the cumulative Model S sales worldwide for the quarter – 9,834, bringing the total deliveries for the year to 31,655.

About A Third Of All Model S Sales Came Via Europe Last Year

About A Third Of All Model S Sales Came Via Europe Last Year

However, the company also noted the worldwide splits for the first time in several quarters.

“In 2014, about 55% of new Model S vehicles were delivered into North America. While North American Model S orders grew year-on-year, deliveries were about flat as we directed vehicles into Asia/Pacific (APAC) markets to support our first year of deliveries there.

The APAC region represented about 15% of our deliveries for the year, and the remaining 30% of deliveries were to Europe, where delivery volume more than doubled from a year ago.”

In real world/numerical data, this breaks down to:

  • North America: 17,400
  • Europe: 9,500
  • Asia/Pacific: 4,800
Tesla's Asia Sales Were A Noticeable Weak Spot For The Company In 2014

Tesla’s Asia Sales Were A Noticeable Weak Spot For The Company In 2014

Each month InsideEVs estimates Tesla Model S sales (as well as a model recap) on our “Monthly Plug-In Scorecard“, and each month we receive a lot of emails about our numbers, the how, the why behind them.  A LOT of emails.

Given our track record of success predicting the overall numbers, we now also get a lot of press each month when we do report them.

Sometime that press is favorable to our prediction, sometimes its not.  Sometimes people tell us we shouldn’t even try to do it…wait for the “professionals”, the “bean counters” to accrue potentially better/more accurate number months later they say.

Truth be told, we really only started doing it to try and provide the most accurate read on the EV industry in North America for our readers, and to try to illustrate what is happening month-to-month at Tesla for production and deliveries, but it has turned into “a thing”.

So this is our moment to say, we pretty much nailed it…again. 

In 2013 we pegged the number within about 300 units.   For 2014?  Within 100, estimating 17,300 sold.  We’d also like to note that Tesla said “about 55%” so we will just go ahead and not edit/adjust our chart until we hear better.

Will we always be so fortunate with the numbers? Not hardly. We don’t profess to be as near accurate as our track record indicates…but so far, its been a great ride.

Check out our 2014 sales chart to see how we got there:

2014 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers *Estimated Tesla NA Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals from Earnings Report (Q1 Sales reported @ 6,457-3,000 Intl Delivers, Q2 7,579 total-approx reported International registrations, Q3 7,785 total deliveries ~ 3,900 US, Q4 via 55% net NA deliveries from 31,655 total) *Fiat 500e data estimated for Jan/Feb

2014 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers *Estimated Tesla NA Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals from Earnings Report (Q1 Sales reported @ 6,457-3,000 Intl Delivers, Q2 7,579 total-approx reported International registrations, Q3 7,785 total deliveries ~ 3,900 US, Q4 via 55% net NA deliveries from 31,655 total) *Fiat 500e data estimated for Jan/Feb

 

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29 Comments on "Tesla Delivers ~17,400 Model S Sedans In North America. We Got It Right. Again"

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Well I’m impressed.

Elon’s claim of “30% of deliveries were to Europe, where delivery volume more than doubled from a year ago.” is completely deceptive. Europe deliveries began in Q4 2013. Comparing annual 2013 sales to 2014 sales makes no sense. Let’s compare Q4 2013 to Q4 2014, which is flat or lower.
Elon loves to compare apples to peanuts when it is convenient.

“See Through disagrees with news about Tesla”

Oh come on now, that’s not news.

Doesn’t “North America” include Canada, so if Canada was around 900 wouldn’t that imply that U.S. deliveries were around 16,100? (If so, you were still quite close, regardless.)

Sorry, that should have been around 16,500 for the U.S., not 16,100.

As noted on the scorecard graphic for the month (and every month), our Tesla estimate is inclusive of North America…which includes Canada.

Honestly, trying to figure out what is happening at the plant/distribution level, and when you are also basically trying to work in real-time, we find it near-impossible to split out which cars are heading to, or being allotted/built for, Canada…so we don’t try, lol.

If you check the item listing for the Model S on the monthly scorecard/roundup, we also noted this last month as:

Of note: Unlike other EVs on this list, we estimate Tesla deliveries in North America cumulatively, and a much higher proportion of these deliveries than normal were made in Canada.

Ah, okay, I just saw “U.S.” Then congrats.

Thanks Mark, appreciate that, (= We try to be really as transparent as we can about the estimate.

I probably should have stressed this better I the article, but we have no position in Tesla at all, and really aren’t concerned with the implications of sales in anyway, we just want to try and put out an accurate number when the other OEMs report at the end of each month.

The problem with your approach is that you get North American sales right but you are inflating U.S. total, w/o Canadian sales, 2014 sales in the American market totaled about 118,900.

Therefore your YOY growth is overestimated & risk having the Model S ranking wrong depending on Canadian sales and how close other PEV is to the Model S on a given month.

Only true measure is “vehicle registrations” as it will give state level detail. Unfortunately in N.America NADA has lobbied for laws that require this data be sold and not placed in public domain (eg: homes sales data is publicaly available).

EVs like the ActiveE and FitEV will only have 3-6 year life, vs. other EV having a more normal longer useful life. This is just one issue in counting sales vs. registrations. Regarding US/Canada S deliveries …. used US LEAFs have been exported to Canada, thus effecting cumulative totals.

If it were that easy it would be swell. Problem is that the registrations aren’t counted properly (or timely) inside the auto sales month calendar…and the fact that Tesla logs the sale when they get the money. Compounding the issue, if the Model S is going on a long trip to say a state they can’t legally sell. The sale is logged at point of ship, then it goes for a ride, the customer gets a temp permit and then registers it themselves…big lag. If you look at data from the state level (lets say from Polk) you will notice in a month like September where we KNOW Tesla delivered a whack of cars just before month end (after an unforeseen extended shutdown killed August sales), registrations via government collection will show a fairly docile September result, but then this huge whack also in October…when we know cars the cars where shipped in September, and Tesla sold very little in October. Put another way, registrations for Q3 only show about 2,800 US sales, but we know via Tesla is was 3,900. We are going to see the same phenomenon for December/January. Tesla has a habit of queuing US production at… Read more »

Way to go.

Tesla says they missed 1,400 due to rear seat issues… if they hadn’t, and hit, say 1,000 of them, then December would have been 4,500.

That’s true. We noted in December the problems with seats, and last month how Q1 was going to get propped up with late Q4 sales.

Here is part of our ditty on that from last month – January (ahead of Tesla’s report yesterday)

“Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your prospective of things), December P85D production and delivery didn’t go terribly smooth for Tesla, and while they did sell an all-time record number of cars during the month (in our estimation), early sourcing problems and troubles physically delivering the cars to the northeast and into Canada at the end of 2014 meant eager buyers expecting a Holiday delivery – didn’t get it. Instead January arrivals where had in there place…artificially inflating the month’s results considerably.”

Tesla’s approach on this is bizarre, as the 1400 vehicles represent about a week and a half of current production. Any other manufacturer would be ecstatic to have that little inventory leftover at the end of the quarter, and each car already with buyers eagerly waiting for it. It’s generally a plus, not a “Geez, things didn’t go well!” moment.

Except if someone is going to pick the car up in Fremont, the last week or so of production will always end up in Tesla’s hands. If production is 2,000 vehicles a week at the end of 2015, Tesla probably will have at least that many vehicles not yet united with their buyer.

FYI, California had excellent weather in 2nd half of December. No rain for 6 weeks.

The whole state had no rain? Seems unlikely.

“And this just in: See Through graduates with a degree in Meteorology”

Just 290 shy of hitting 120,000 for the year. Well, hopefully 2015 will be even better.

And I want to see the world clear 1 million sold worldwide soon.

+1 to Jay et al.!

If there’s one media lesson to learn from recent years, it’s precisely this:

The best journalism is citizen journalism.

When done right, of course, as you do here.

+10

This is why insideevs is my favorite website regarding plug-ins, keep up the good work!

Props to you too Jose, and ev-sales

You know the pain of compiling data like few others. Lots of work, not so much on the payback, (=

Mucho trabajo poco dinero.

With delayed Q4 deliveries on ~1800 S’s wondering if January’s 1100 US Model S total is a bit low? Perhaps the delayed deliveries just offset the week-long plant shutdown.

Given 55,000 forecast and 55% US Tesla deliveries (vs. 30% EU &.15% Asia), we should see ~30,000 US Tesla’s in 2015.

With 30,000+ LEAFs delivered in 2014, would expect 35-40,000 in 2015. Anyway it should be exciting for the first half of 2015 as Nissan and Tesla US delivery number will remain close.

Congratulations once again to the InsideEVs editors for their tireless work in tracking all North American sales of plug-in EVs, even from a company which doesn’t publicly disclose monthly sales figures.

I admit to being puzzled at the criticisms and detractors of InsideEVs estimates. If someone thinks they can do a better job, then by all means let them do so.

I suspect most of the nattering comes from investment advisers who are annoyed that InsideEVs provides better information, for free online, than the “inside investor info” those advisers want people to pay them to get!

I have always liked the way you presented, estimated, and reconciled results. I would LOVE if you made a live updating Google spreadsheet of the Tesla data. Ideally it would be tracking all known/estimated/updated monthly sales (orders), production, and deliveries by model and country. You present it will but sometimes seeing/playing around with the raw data is needed to silly wrap your head around it since there are so many different numbers you could report.

*reservations, sales, production & deliveries

PLEASE do this! Maybe give those bean counters something to peruse.

Regarding the missed numbers Jim Cramer of “Mad Money” fame, really unloads both barrels on Elon Musk. To be fair he tends to be over the top but his negativity in this case is in essence unbounded. He sees nothing good about Tesla, except that they make a great car, and he actually owns one.
Also his remembering of his historical non-embrace of Tesla is a bit clouded, as he said you would have made a lot of money if you had listened to him on Tesla. Not true as he never recommended them, long or short.
So take it with a grain of salt, but he has lots of followers and can move the market, though I think in this case he is wrong, about putting Musk up on his wall of shame. After all it is about making great product.

close result between Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV with 31,689 vehicles sold, and Tesla Model S with 31,655 vehicles.