UPDATE: Tesla Stock Surges: Loads Of Analysts Offer Tesla Model 3 Q3 Predictions

OCT 1 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 104

The stock surge is massive ahead of Tesla’s official Q3 report.

Following last week’s SEC lawsuit announcement, the stock plunged, but in pre-market trading it’s back up big time (real-time stock ticker info here) and there’s a solid reason for this.

***UPDATE: Market now open. TSLA at $305. Check here for real-time.

Over the weekend, Tesla made a last-minute push to move Model 3 deliveries at a rapid pace. The push, outlined in an email by Musk, called for an all-out Tesla team effort and we believe it was a success.

But let’s examine what some analysts think of Q3 too:

RBC, Joseph Spak

Model 3 production estimate: 52,000, deliveries: 55,400

Goldman Sachs, David Tamberrino

Model 3 production estimate: 50,000, deliveries: 52,000

Cowen, Jeffrey Osborne

Model 3 deliveries: 45,000

Vertical Group, Gordon Johnson

Model 3 production: 52,582

Consumer Edge, James Albertine

Model 3 production: 50,000, deliveries: 55,000

Barclays

Model 3 production: 47,500, deliveries: 52,000

Now that the analysts have chimed in, what’s your take? Offer it up in Comments below.

Source: Bloomberg

Categories: Tesla

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104 Comments on "UPDATE: Tesla Stock Surges: Loads Of Analysts Offer Tesla Model 3 Q3 Predictions"

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Alaa Sadek

My take is that they are all jerks.

Mil

Yeah, especially: Vertical Group, Gordon Johnson. Saw a youtube video of him debating against a Tesla bull and Gordon seamed completely clueless with so much inaccurate information. It was pathetically embarrassing for him.

Gasbag

52,573 M3 produced.
82,169 vehicles delivered.

Those numbers extracted from my arse but my methodology is proprietary.

G2

…and no one wants to touch your proprietary “method”.😄
Thanks for the chuckle.

jeffhre

Your “proprietary” method stinks! Just an observation. Not saying you’re wrong though.

Lou Grinzo

There’s a computer biz term for this: PIDOOMA (pulled it directly out of my ***).

Scott

I guess that’s why they are called ANALysts. . .

mathijs

model 3 production: 53000
model 3 deliveries: 53000 + 11000 (transit at start of quarter) – 4000 (transit at end of quarter) = 60000

Doggydogworld

Model 3 production – 53k
Model 3 deliveries – 57k

S/X production – 27k
S/X deliveries – 27k

snm

TESLA has sold over 50k Model3 each worth over 44k . Man thats Awesome

Mark.ca

Average well over 44k….

Doggydogworld

Roughly 60k average this quarter.

optimist

production 53,342
deliveries 60,240

Espiritiv

I think none of the analyst have a clue. if they wrote something they probably just took your numbers and change a little bit so it seems like they did some work!

REXisKing

Well, at least CNBC is giving credit for taking InsideEv’s data.
So, good job InsideEV!

REXisKing

Funny, today in the US market, Tesla stock took a hit of a Big Sell Order at beginning of trading, as shorts? continue to try to manipulate the price down. But, the market ate it up.
If I were a short I’d be covering before Q3, but, I’m more cautious, risk adverse investor.


https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/TSLA#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%3D

Interestingly, Yahoo daily chart shows a huge initial buy order at beginning of trading.
My stock charting program reporting it as a sell order, I’m going to have to report a bug, as I think Yahoo would know how to chart their own data!

pjwood1

And the shorts (by headline), include Wall Street Journal’s: “Tesla Braces for Uncertainty Amid Shift in Elon Musk’s Role”. That one didn’t age well (up ~40 points).

I expect analysts will do a mix of both, advancing the view that pumps their position and saying what is most agreeable to those employing them. What bothers me more, though, is the heavily sponsored media message. Hype the bad, neglect the good. Too few outlets push the other direction, and nothing close to balance becomes the message.

Chacama

Your are right. Probably someone trying to lock-in profits but possibly as well that sSomeone must have jumped off of a window at Wall Street after it kept going up.

Leptoquark

The fascinating thing are all of the volunteer Tesla owners who came out to Tesla showrooms to help staff deliver cars. Have there ever been any other examples of customers coming to the dealer of any automaker to voluntarily help out? Extraordinary. Let’s see if that makes it onto CNBC…..

https://twitter.com/seanmmitchell/status/1046116677639950336
https://twitter.com/TeslaMdAtlantic/status/1046197445611474945
https://twitter.com/doyendon/status/1046034883561238529

krona2k

Yeah they reported that as desperate Tesla *asked* customers to help. They’re not even trying to pretend to be truthful now. Why do so many people want Tesla to fail? Well I think I can guess, it’s in their financial interest.

Alan Campbell

Just looking at Model 3, I expect at least 20k for September and over 55k for Q3. Which should put the YTD at over 75k.

antrik

55,000 in Q3 should put YTD closer to 85,000 I think?…

MarcS

what sense does it make to predict production + delivery numbers at this point of time? Only a few hours left until numbers are being published by Tesla ?!?!

antrik

Since the final number will affect stock price, knowing in advance — even just minutes — is very valuable for stock brokers…

Pushmi-Pullyu

With automated trading, even a microsecond of advance warning is sufficient to earn lots of money. That’s just one of several ways in which large financial institutions have access to methods of making money unavailable to ordinary people. That’s one of the reasons why the rich keep getting richer, and the rest of us poorer.

Guest 89

Even if you know the numbers, you still can’t know for sure where the stock will go.

Pushmi-Pullyu

There is, and will be, a lot of last-minute buying and selling before Tesla releases its official numbers. So a lot of opportunities by stock brokers to make fees on buying and selling. Plus, of course, many of the large financial firms “push” either the “bear” or the “bull” position for a stock, as a “play” to make money. Even if that’s illegal in some cases, they have found workarounds by using shell companies.

Just keep in mind that if a self-described “analyst” gives you his opinion of a stock or a company, he’s almost certainly not doing it for the benefit of his audience; he’s almost certainly doing it for the benefit of whoever pays him.

Chris O

Guess SEC actually did TSLA a favor by announcing its settlement with Elon Musk just before the upcoming production/profit numbers rather than after. looks like the loss of part of the “Elon Musk factor”in TSLA is compensated by the chance of Tesla moving into profit territory. For now.

I wonder to what extend Elon Musk being ousted from the board of directors and therefore having less (no?)control over the overall strategy of the company is going to affect TSLA over the next 3 years though.

Ron M

Musk is still CEO his vision and innovative motivation reminds in tact. Rest easy Chris O, Tesla rules.

Chris O

Yeah, the vision is still there but the power to make that vision determine company policy seems quite reduced and I wonder what sort of vision those independent members of the board will turn out to be bringing to the table.

chano1

More clueless add-ons like Murdoch, guaranteed. People unable to offer any ideas of value. Who do you think will choose the new directors?

Rolando

“” Who do you [sic = Chris O] think will choose the new directors? “”

Elon might chose Charles and David Koch as independent board persons …… and the SEC required Twitter filter person = Bob Lutz !!

David

His control of Company will barely change. His Tweeting will be monitored and 1% of his tweets might need tweaking.

Chris O

Well, some oversight over his twitter account is definitely a good thing because an overworked Elon Musk+twitter account amounts to a baby with a razor. Gets messy real quick;)

chano1

Significant oversight of your nanny mentality posts here are In order.

amt

David, However. The Shorts Are Wishing Otherwise….lol

bradley cross

Yes his Twitter account “has been secured”

davidd

He has not been ousted from the Board of Directors. He will still be a Director, just not the Chairman. https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/29/elon-musk-agrees-to-resign-as-tesla-chairman-in-settlement-with-sec/

chano1

Musk has lost no control. If anything, his position is even stronger now. The company will continue to act and execute as Musk wishes. No question imm.

Larry Al

As I understand, Elon has sometimes not exercised his vote rights. He may choose to use his voting shares more often now.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I wouldn’t be so sure. Before this SEC kerfuffle, Tesla promoted some senior executives to positions of greater authority. Elon’s days of trying to micromanage the entire company by himself may be over. And if so, that’s a rather large step in the right direction.

antrik

Some people might argue that filing the case just before the quarter end, was actually a move to put on extra pressure for a quick settlement…

Some Guy

In most companies, the fact that someone owns about 20% of the stock gives a boatload of influence, even when it is not a controlling majority.
Even if he is not chairman of the board for the next three years, the stockholders are to be kept happy, especially when they hold large amounts of stock.
Just look at the European ICE manufactueres and who holds large positions in them. Ties to big oil are evident there.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Ties to big oil are evident there.”

Is there actual evidence of that, or is this just another conspiracy theory?

Martin Lacey

There is nothing to prevent the Board from tripling the number of board members and negating the impact of 2 more “indy” board members. Bringing in an owner and stock holder onto the board and simplifying tasks of the current board members as the company expands from a medium automaker to a major automaker would justify such a move.

Doggydogworld

Even Musk isn’t crazy enough to end run the SEC settlement that way. And adding directors doesn’t simplify tasks. They don’t really do much.

ffbj

A definitive example of being “caught short.’

amt

Yes Caught , With Thy Shorts Down! ….lol

Pushmi-Pullyu

Shorts in a wringer. 😉

“Tesla envy happens when other people have, ahem, long positions and yours is too short.” –Jim Whitehead

Vexar

There was a line of Model III’s at the street signal for the on-ramp from the Eden Prairie service center, after the store hours were over. A quick glance at the lot from the freeway and I saw a line of people and a corresponding line of Tesla vehicles as well, again, after hours. Our local club was tapped over the weekend to answer new owner Q&A. Last week, truckloads of Tesla vehicles from the factory peaked at 5 /day, whereas it was 2/week in March.
I sincerely hope that, starting Q4, Tesla opens up that second service center they built in town. it is 6 months overdue.

Ron M

What town are you talking about.

ffbj

Minneapolis. Eden Prairie is a suburb.

Ron M

Thanks seems like 150 TM3’s a day in Minneapolis is a ridiculously high number so high I have trouble believing it.

Vexar

This is eyewitness reporting from the MN Tesla Club volunteers, and if the photos were public, I’d share them with you as proof. 150/day is not accurate. 8-12 per truck (different truck types), we will call it 50 a day for their delivery push. Not 100% Model III’s, I might add. More believable for a quarter end push?
Remember, we had 1200 day one reservations in this town (on site, out in the cold rain), and I dare say that Minnesota is taking on more than its 1/57th of the US population. Some of that is income, some of that is a love for the trees, lakes, rivers, and all the laughing loons in our lakes. Looking forward to calling Minnesota the Land of 10,000 Tesla’s.

Counterpoint

I’ve seen Model 3s in 3 or 4 different colors around town in the last couple weeks. They’re starting to become more common than Model S sightings.

REXisKing

Thank you for your service.
It’s greatly appreciated.

Ron M

55,500 TM3 Deliveries Total Tesla’s sold 82,000

REXisKing

With no production improvement, Tesla is now at a Yearly Run Rate of 328,000.
So, Mr. Lutz’s “production” numbers were off 33%.

G2

Who is this “Mr Putz” you speak of…/s😉

chano1

aka Klutz Hasbeen

amt

Rite On, Putz Is A Bought & Paid For , Hired Gun ,,To Gun Down Tesla ….However ., Putz Has 0ld Age Related Bad Vision & A Has Very Bad Aim ! ….

chano1

Well past his sell-by date. The guy who was involved in putting GM into bankruptcy. He can’t stand to witness a runaway success in motion that’s putting his favourite dinosaurs out of the game.

Robert Weekley

…Lob Butz? He’s a guy from the “Old School”, with lots of “Gas!”
/S 😱😌😂

Ron M

I wonder if Putz’s will apply for the Chairman job. They can give him a room where he can play with a set of Hot Wheels. lol

Pushmi-Pullyu

Some myopic old dinosaur who keeps looking backwards, and can’t see where we’re headed. 😉

TeslaPlease

Did the initial SEC offer to Elon include a cash penalty? If not, Elon and Tesla paid $40 million dollars to return their stock back to pre SEC offer refusal levels.

Congrats to Elon and the Tesla BoD /s

Gasbag

“Did the initial SEC offer to Elon include a cash penalty? ”

Yes that was included and it was reported as “tens of millions of dollars” for Elon and Tesla so at worst the settlement minimized the penalty relative to what was reportedly offered. Congrats are in order.

Doggydogworld

NYT reported the original settlement was $10m each for Musk and Tesla vs. $20m each in the revised deal. Also 2 year chairman ban went to 3 years.

Get Real

And congrats to the shills, shorters and haters and all around financial leeches like yourself who have again FAILED to stop the Tesla-led rEVolution.

pjwood1

Yes, we should really raise a glass. Without them, the market could not have become so volatile, inefficient…and profitable.

chano1

And congrats to the SEC for damaging shareholders a huge 15% by their payola-driven actions. What fines will they pay for that crime?

Dhandu

Based on the VIN numbers out, I think production is somewhere in the range of 60K and sales would be touching around 62K.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Bloomberg has admitted that its Model 3 “tracker” (actually an estimator) went badly off the rails this quarter because it depends too much on the VINs.

Best to wait for InsideEVs’ estimates, which have proven quite accurate over the years.

Another Euro point of view

It is called late bull market cycle volatility 😛

Pushmi-Pullyu

I call it shorts being put thru the wringer… again. 😉

james

I say the person off by the most has to publicly apologize…

Pushmi-Pullyu

The stronger the FÜD, the weaker the chance of any apology.

Ron M

There talking now about $100 a barrel oil soon. Which should increase demand for EV’s and demand is already a lot higher than supply for EV’s. Trump demanded OPEC lower the price if oil at the United Nations last week. Apparently Trump doesn’t understand when you don’t let Iran sell oil the supply on the market goes down causing prices to rise.
Hard to believe Trump majored in economics at Wharton Business School.

William

It’s easy to “believe” in his “Trump majored” claim, if you “gradumicated” from the now defunct Trump University!

He only paid a $25 million “no fault” settlement, to make his three T-Rump U. Legal suits go away!

Economics Major “Secured”!

Some Guy

The most funny thing is that thanks to the sanctions, Iran can’t sell the oil to the western ciuntries that follow the US lead sanctioning. However, China does not care about US sanctions aganist Iran, and, as Iran can’t sell large quantities to anyone else*, China is happy to get Iranian oil at a discount now to fuel the growth, while the competition from the west gets to pay more for oil from elsewhere, rising prices for the consumer and ironically promoting EV adoption.
* During the last sanction period, Iran also sold a lot of oil to Russia, that was then used in the country replacing Russian oil that coild be exported. Russia did quite well on that deal.

Vexar

I am eager to see gas prices north of $4.25 a gallon. That makes driving the average of 20 mpg ICE vehicle 21 cents per mile. If you go with 300 Wh / mile as a BEV average, that puts it at 4 cents per mile. Then you can say things like “it costs you more than 5x per mile to drive combustion. When do you plan on spending less to go places?”

Counterpoint

I never understood the sentiment of wishing higher gas prices. Most EVs are not yet price comparable with gasoline powered cars, so the only people who can afford electric vehicles are wealthy. An extra tax or hike on gas prices does not make electric cars more affordable; it simply acts as a tax on the majority of the country who can’t afford them.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Higher gas prices put pressure on auto makers to produce more energy efficient cars. In the past that merely meant smaller cars with smaller engines, but now it’s definitely part of what’s pushing legacy auto makers into getting serious about making and selling EVs in significant numbers.

Not to say that any of your points are wrong; higher gas prices do cause a hardship for the working poor. But in the long run, we’ll all be better off when we finally wean ourselves from the teats of Big Oil. Wishing for low at-the-pump prices for gas is short-term thinking.

Counterpoint

I agree that electric vehicles are the future, but I don’t see a need to force the change. EVs are generally more efficient, are more convenient for people in houses and should in time be universally more convenient, have the potential to be less expensive to run, are quieter, have quicker acceleration from a stop than most gasoline cars in the same class, and they’re better for the environment. They will practically sell themselves once they get to a reasonable price point (see Model 3 pre-orders, etc.)

Get Real

Yes, another example of stupid is as stupid does by the Trumpster.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Hard to believe Trump majored in economics at Wharton Business School.”

Hard to believe he actually earned any grade or degree he got. More likely he or his daddy paid others to do his homework, or simply bribed/ blackmailed his professors.

This is a guy so inept at business that he managed to drive three Atlantic City casinos into bankruptcy court… four times! As one pundit put it: “How can you possibly run a casino into bankruptcy, when it’s basically a license to print money?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atlantic-city.html

TM21

When the readers are asked for “what’s your take?” that doesn’t mean gut feels or guesses, there should be some data to the estimate. Some of the readers have provided the basis of their estimates, and I’ll say kudos to them.

TM3x2 Chris

My take: 56,852 delivered in Q3
My basis: a neighbor just got 2 TM3s last week

Robert Weekley

I might be helping the Q1, 2019 numbers, a bit, but unfortunately, not US #’s, which seem to be the focus here!

Also, a Coworker told me, last light, “Lots of Tesla’s at the International Center” (Toronto, Ontario, near Pearson Airport), and a Tweet I saw yesterday, suggested a delivery goal of 300 for the Sunday, September 30th push!

Quite surprising, considering the “End Of All Rebates”, was September 10th, 2018, in Ontario!

Some Guy

Awesome things technically don’t require rebates to sell well.
But incentivising the sale for the buyer sure helps to accelerate adoption, and the more that are on the road, the faster word of mouth spreads that there is a “new sheriff in town”.

Ron M

Of course asking readers there estimate is your gut feeling. We don’t have access to Tesla’s database.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Exactly right. The self-appointed financial “analysts” are often wildly wrong. Furthermore, crowdsourced data often results in surprisingly accurate results, so if we averaged the guesses here, then we’d probably find our collective wisdom is greater than that of those poseur analysts.

See “Wisdom of the crowd”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

Texas Leaf

Bouncy, bouncy, bouncy! Can you say v-o-l-I-t-I-l-e?! I know you can.

scott

I knew I should of bought Tesla stock Friday.

Pushmi-Pullyu

If ever there was a time I was tempted to buy stock… Yeah, that was it.

Murrysville EV

Now I’ve balked for a second time on buying a Model 3.

After cancelling my Day One reservation in March, I finally test drove one two weeks ago and really liked it, for the most part. So for the Q3 push the store was offering $1000 off the showroom model, which was exactly the car I would configure.

But alas, I just can’t bring myself to drop $50k on a car, even considering the subsidies.

jelloslug

Your loss….

nathan prather

I believe tesla will shatter expectations with 60,000 model 3 vehicles produced, as well as deliveries of up to 72,000. I also predict model 3 and x sales totaling as much as 45-50,000.

Mark.ca

Apply for one of these analyst positions….

Younger

Bloomberg finance by short

jim stack

You could not buy that type of publicity for $20 Million. What a neat ploy.

voracity

I just realised something.

Musk tweets funding secured at $420 when that wasn’t really the case (probably due to overenthusiasm, but hard to tell). The stock jumps, then heads back to normal when it doesn’t pan out.

The SEC claimed that it was proceeding with suing Musk when that wasn’t really the case (probably due to overenthusiasm, but hard to tell). The stock drops, then heads back to normal when it doesn’t pan out.

One of those was met with justifiable punishment.

(OK, I may be stretching the analogy a little.)

Doggydogworld

SEC actually did file a civil suit against Musk in US Court, Southern District, New York, though. You can read the filing.

Benz

Tesla reports Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles (55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X).

Epic!!!