Optimistic Tesla Model 3 Sales Projections Push TSLA Target Price Up

Tesla

JUN 13 2018 BY DOMENICK YONEY 92

Don’t call it a comeback

Tesla stock (TSLA) is seeing some crazy action of late.  At one point last week — the 6th, to be precise — it rose some $29.51 in a single trading session, prompting this writer to publicly speculate whether the mythical short squeeze was underway. It was not, and the price settled down somewhat for the next few days. Then, something seems to have happened that kicked off another price spike this week, and then another.

The first big gains made on Monday when shares moved from Friday’s close of $317.66 to $332.10 (+$14.44) at the end of trading Monday may be partly attributed to a research note from analysts at German investment bank Berenberg. The firm maintained its future target of $500 per share and kept a buy rating in place, noting that it believes Tesla still retains a significant technological advantage over its competitors and that it believes profit margins on the Model 3 will be higher than expected. Said the note,

Imminent competition from traditional Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) is often cited as a key threat to Tesla, but this underestimates the full extent of Tesla’s technology advantage, which manifests in the entire electronic architecture design,”

According to Teslarati, the recent over-the-air (OTA) update which Tesla used to shorten the braking distance on its Model 3 by 20 feet really underlined this advantage. The automaker had previously used an OTA to improve backup camera imaging and activate rear seat heating.

To its point about margins, the Berenberg note makes the case that inferring similar margins as its Model S and Model X siblings may be wrong, as the 3 is being produced in much higher volumes with more automation, saving significant manufacturing costs. It sees margins exceeding the 25 percent mark.

One might have expected the dust to settle on Tuesday, with traders locking in gains and the share rise leveling off, but the action was actually even more dramatic. After jumping to $344.70 in overnight trading it soared again to $354.97 before falling all the way back to $340.31 at 3:00 PM when again, it seemed traders locked in some profits. The last hour saw another slight gain, after Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced a 9 percent slashing of its workforce in an effort to ensure 3rd quarter profitability — the type of action the market generally likes — closing the day at $342.77.

The impetus for Tuesday’s dramatic rise has been put down to remarks from an analyst from a different outfit: KeyBanc Capital Markets. Its Brad Erickson, after checking in with a number of Tesla sales centers, wrote in a note that they expect 2nd quarter deliveries to be 50 % higher than expected —  an optimistic 30,000 units instead of its original 20,000-unit estimate. That would be quite an accomplishment if it actually happens.

So, considering all this upward action, are we seeing a “short squeeze?” Traders with short positions are reported by Reuters to have lost $2 billion so far this month. Not according to Galileo Russell of YouTube channel HyperChange. (Yes, this is the same YouTuber who got to ask a number of questions at Tesla’s last quarterly call with analysts.) He believes the surge is still down to fundamentals. Rather than sum up his arguments, though, we’ll let him speak for himself in the 6-minute video below, which he published yesterday afternoon.

As of this writing this morning, Tesla stock is up an additional $2.71. As it has always been an extremely volatile stock, it’s impossible to say where it will move from here in the short term. It seems quite likely, though, that if evidence of Model 3 production indicates a reaching of the 5,000 per week production target by the end of the month, upwards would be a good bet. If not, downwards.

As always, please be aware that we are not financial market professionals and do not intend any of this to be perceived as investing advice. We ourselves hold no positions in any automotive or related stocks.

Source: Teslarati, CNBC

Categories: Tesla

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92 Comments on "Optimistic Tesla Model 3 Sales Projections Push TSLA Target Price Up"

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Kdawg

I got another OTA update yesterday for the Model 3. This one changed the screen to show all the cars in adjacent lanes, not just your lane. It also allows the system to save HVAC settings for each driver.

Now, if they will just build a shuffle feature into the music system 🙂

Josh

Lol, was music shuffle a 2013 request on Model S?

Can you check if the map was updated to move directions closer to the driver?

Kdawg

No change to the map.

ffbj

Got any pictures? You got yours pretty quickly, you must have been early day order.
Hope you’re enjoying it.

Kdawg

Here she is after the ceramic coating. I reserved online, the night it opened.
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(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

What does the Ceramic coating do???

Mister G

It protects paint job from damage and keying by anti-ev conservatives
CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS thanks for caring

Rightofthepeople

A true conservative respects the property rights of others and would therefore never key someone’s car. And btw LOTS of conservatives have Model 3 reservations (some already have their Model 3).

Kdawg

I got CeramicPro. This site can explain it a lot better than me. https://ceramicpro.com/

eject

It costs money. That is its main function.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Sweet! And the silver color is very practical in keeping the car cooler in direct sunlight, too.

Congratulations, Kdawg!
🙂 🙂 🙂

Mister G

Very nice congratulations
Thanks for caring about our planet.

ffbj

Great Job!

Mark.ca

How you like it so far?

Kdawg

Lovin’ it. I have some small nitpicks, like no shuffle on the USB music, and sometimes the phone key takes a bit to connect, but nothing major. It gets looks/questions from some people. Others just think of it as another car and pay no attention.

Scott Franco

I have no idea why, but in Silicon Valley it is now common for the kids to yell out “tesla” as you pass by. Hey, at least the younger generation keeps up with this stuff.

Kdawg

Maybe it’s the new “slug-bug” game.

TNT

Loving mine. I have almost 2000 miles after a trip from Tucson to Boise. Car is a game changer

Scott Franco

I would prefer they add spotify (the most popular music service out there ). I don’t feel like paying for two music services.

Kdawg

I’m not sure what music streaming service Tesla uses (I think i read Slacker?), but it doesn’t cost any money (to me).

james

Online they were showing this is not yet the short squeeze as <2% of shorted stock was getting covered so they are still hoping for a crash.

Mark.ca

Why would they cover? The valuation is insane. It would be fun to see a squeeze ala VW…this one would probably more than double since the short float was around 40% last time i checked.

mx9000

First off the 200 day moving average is 322. That’s where market sentiment is. So, to think your going to crash this stock is unrealistic.

And I’d say Wall Street sales targets are conservative, which may be a shock for shorts next quarter. Now it time to get out of your short position before the burn.

If there’s reservations for 450,000, there’s demand for 1.2 – 1.8 million.
A short position is extremely risky right now.

TeslaInvestors

Two big factors are the current tax credits and the HOV access in California. I got a red sticker for HOV that’s only valid till end of 2018. If the HOV access is not renewed for EVs, it can be a big setback for all EV sales in California, Tesla’s biggest market.

The other question is how much Model 3 sales are eating into Model S&X sales. Last quarter didn’t look good. I’m very very skeptical about selling 1.2-1.8M of this sedan a year. May be divide these by 10 to make them look realistic. Next year can be really troublesome.

Robert Weekley

While California might have lead the sales for the S & the X, and are doing so for the 3, this could shift a bit for the 3, once the base Model arrives and ships!

Rafael Sabatini

Fortunately, they are being thrown out of LA’s carpool lanes, so traffic’s moving a bit better. The 10 was actually flowing at 5PM the other night.

Mark.ca

The premise that Tesla sales in CA are conditioned by the carpool sticker is laughable at best.
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/decal
“Vehicles issued a green or white decal in 2017 or 2018 will be eligible to reapply for a decal in 2019 granting them access to high–occupancy toll lanes until January 1, 2022.”
Are you intentionally posting miss information?

TeslaInvestors

But now, only red decals are being issued. I don’t see renewal mentioned in this. Will those be renewed too? I do see that bill 544 is passed.

“Beginning in March 2018, the department will begin issuing a new single-color red decal for qualifying vehicles pursuant to CVC §§5205.5 and 21655.9. The new red decal will be valid until January 1, 2019, and will be issued to vehicles that meet California’s super ultra-low emission vehicle (SULEV) standard for exhaust emissions and the federal inherently low-emission vehicle (ILEV) evaporative emission standard, as well as vehicles that meet the state’s enhanced advanced technology partial zero-emission (enhanced AT PZEV) vehicles or transitional zero emission vehicle (TZEV) standard. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) fueled vehicles may also qualify. Visit the California Air Resources Board’s (ARB) website at http://www.arb.ca.gov for additional information on vehicle eligibility.”

Scott Franco

So I don’t understand. I will have both a white sticker car and a red sticker car. The red sticker is not going to be commuter lane eligible, but the white still is? Arrrrggggg.

Mark.ca

It will be until 2022.

Mark.ca

“Owners of vehicles issued a Red, Green or White HOV decal from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2018, may apply for a new Clean Air Vehicle Decal that will expire on January 1, 2022”
IT’S IN THE FRICKING LINK YOU QUOTED!!!
I’m losing my patience with you, dude.

TeslaInvestors

Chill down mate! I didn’t post any link. I read your link and that’s the only link I find by googling too. I can’t find the text you posted on that page. Did you just pull it out of think air or somewhere else?

I’ll be glad if what you say is true. I just got a red decal. But my car is only for 3 years (lease).

Mark.ca

O….M fricking ….G!
The green text in your quoted message
“http://www.arb.ca.gov” is a link!!!
On the front page, under “Resources” click on “Carpool Stickers”
Or here is a shortcut for your lazy ass….
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/carpool/carpool.htm

Stop with the misinformation!

Pushmi-Pullyu

But posting misinformation, or rather intentional disinformation, is the agenda FUDsters like him. It’s the only reason they make an effort to comment.

Brian

There is no way EV sales in California will shrink. You can’t turn this ship around.

Robert Weekley

Canadian Tesla page already is showung new deposits for a Model 3 as being deliverable in 6-9 months! I expect that will be even faster by year end, if not sooner. All indicating internal data leaning to higher production rates, for sure!

TeslaInvestors

“higher production rates, for sure!”
Are u sure? I can think of some other possibilities too:
i) Low order conversion rate.
ii) Queue got too short due to people getting refunds.

TomArt

No, it would be for maximizing the tax credit in the US. The clock for the Federal income tax credit for EVs has started for Tesla vehicles. The full credit is available until Dec.31st, then by July 1st of 2019, it’ll be gone.

pjwood1
Short covering can be a product of a margin call (when the bank closes a position because its price-rise creates too high a ratio of borrowed to invested capital in an individual’s account). IOW, I believe a custodian can do it to a short. Here, pain doesn’t matter to the bank, as it seeks liquidity no matter the investor’s harm. I’ve been longer than usual, lately, and had some good fortune this week. On the advice of another in these forums, I put a GTC order on my shares, which limits their ability to be loaned out (short-sold). I don’t know if that’s true, but my GTC limit was 329 the morning it reached 332 and then came back down to 316-318. I literally tried to set a higher limit, on Tuesday seeing it shoot up Monday, but I “messed up” and hadn’t clicked all the way through. That meant getting taken out across several lots, and then being able to buy the whole position back ~12 points lower, when I discovered it. So, I do think this was in part a short cover, as well as believe more than a few are trying to prevent stock lending, which adds… Read more »
Dr. Miguelito Loveless

No way Tesla can hit 30K for quarter, and I say that as a Tesla supporter.

30K for year by June 30? Certainly possible. But to hit 30K Q2 would mean cranking out 20K cars in June, and I just don’t see that happening. Would love to be wrong, but I suspect that the analyst is inflating the number so he can slam Tesla for missing his unrealistic prediction.

Dave

You are exactly right. at the end of Q1 I predicted 25K Model 3 sales in Q2 and the Tesla fan boys lambasted me… calling me Troll, Short, Russian etc… haha! Now I have had to revise that number downward 15%+ or so, to 20 to 22K Model 3’s delivered in Q2. I wonder what I will get called today?

Total 12 month production of Model 3 should hit 36K-38K by the end of June IMO. Considering that Tesla guided producing 40550 Model 3’s in Q2, and that is even taking out the 10 days of factory shutdowns, we are going to see a miss of 30 to 40% for the QTR. We will find out July 2nd…

Pushmi-Pullyu

If you don’t want to be called a short-selling troll, then stop posting FUD that you know isn’t true, and try actually saying something positive about Tesla when they deserve it, which is quite often.

Duh.

Scott Franco

Or go post on SA. They love misinformation there.

David Green

Care to revisit my predictions? Not FUD, just facts… :)~

Robert Weekley

What is great about all this pessimism, is that even if it turns out to be true, Tesla Will Still Lead All Other USA Sales of EV”s, with the Model 3 Alone!

Then, there is the debate about how or if, Tesla will “Manage” US sales for the Q2, so as to not exceed 199,999, at June 30th, 2018!

mx9000

You do know they’re putting in a 3rd assembly line, correct?
5000 per week will be do-able, if not June then July.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“No way Tesla can hit 30K for quarter, and I say that as a Tesla supporter.”

Note it doesn’t say 30k TM3’s for the quarter, and it doesn’t say U.S. sales only. It just says 30k deliveries. If that’s the worldwide figure including the MS and MX, then that doesn’t appear to be that difficult a goal to reach.

Tesla delivered 101,312 cars last year worldwide.

Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)

Pushmi-Pullyu

Okay, my assessment above is mistaken: The CNBC article that this article is based on specifies “KeyBanc Capital Markets raises its second-quarter Model 3 delivery estimate to 30,000 from 20,000”. So MS and MX deliveries are not included.

It does indeed seem improbable to estimate a growth from 8180 (estimated) TM3 deliveries in Q1 to 30,000 in in Q2.

TeslaInvestors

The same analyst used same method to predict 4500 Model 3 for Q4 of 2017. The actual number was ~1500.

“so he can slam Tesla for missing his unrealistic prediction.” : Or someone signaled him to come up with a BS prediction to pump the stock even more, in the hopes of a short term “short burn of the century”. 🙂

Nix

Seems like they are either setting up a strawman on purpose to say that Tesla didn’t hit their inflated target, or that they don’t know the difference between Production numbers and Delivery numbers.

If Tesla builds 5K units in the last week of June, they wouldn’t be delivered until July anyways. They just take too long to load on vehicles and move across the US and Canada, then prep them for delivery at delivery centers.

Mark.ca

I wish you guys would stop talking about the stock prices. I don’t remember seeing a post about the +10% drop 2 months ago so why mention the jump here. Just stick to the story and leave the pumping to others…as you can see, they don’t need your help.

Dave

I agree… It seems the stories only fit the narrative in 1 direction, bottom line is that a long term Tesla investor lost equity in the last 12 months.

Mark.ca

Lol…you can’t do anything right, can you? Do you want me to post how much the shorts lost from IPO? Someone that bought TSLA 12 months ago IS NOT AN INVESTOR!!! That’s called a trader.

Dave

Sorry Mark, If you owned Tesla from IPO, you have lost equity on paper at least in the last 12 months, during the same time period the Nasdaq has gone up 25%, so I guess a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats. :)~

Mark.ca

You are a spinner, aren’t you? You like cherries too…

Dave

No spin at all 52 week is a common metric to be looked at when evaluating a company. I am actually not spinning.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Sorry Mark, If you owned Tesla from IPO, you have lost equity on paper at least in the last 12 months…”

Those who bought into a long-term TSLA position in the first 2.5 years after the IPO have seen their stock value rise to about 10x or 12x the initial value, which is wildly higher than industry average.

Any long-term investor in TSLA certainly isn’t going to cry over the mild loss over the past 12 months, and if they have to sell some or all of their stock, they’re going to “cry” all the way to the bank!

Meanwhile, TSLA stock shorters — like you, “Dave” — have lost an estimated $2.4 billion just this month! So we can certainly see why you won’t stop your constant whining about Tesla.

Too bad you’ve lost sight of the difference between TSLA and Tesla. Fortunately, most of the rest of us have not.

https://electrek.co/2018/06/13/tesla-tsla-shorts-billio-losses-elon-musk-next-level-burn/

Kbm3

It really displays the weakness of an argument when one cherry picks a time. Look at the long term trajectory. The current stock price is massively distorted by 25% of the stock being sold short.

If I was a short, I would be trembling!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Anybody who is currently posting anti-Tesla FUD is clearly too foolish to exit their short position. So just take note of who is posting FUD here — those are the LOSERS!

Ah, schadenfreude…
🙂 🙂 🙂

Pushmi-Pullyu

“I wish you guys would stop talking about the stock prices.”

Hear, hear!

The name of this website is “InsideEVs”. It’s not “Inside Tesla’s Finances.” There are plenty of other websites that dissect Tesla’s finances; we don’t need IEVs to echo what the investor sites are covering.

And every article here about Tesla’s finances attracts anti-Tesla FUDsters like flies to honey. We don’t need more of that bull pucky here, either.

Mark W

Seems that any thought of them not meeting 200,000 in June is out the window now?

Robert Weekley

My Canadian coworker gets his Model 3 today, but he jis not the first, nor the last! One of our office staff already got theirs, and another coworker is seeing then in driveways on the way to work! I saw one in the wild in traffic last weekend!

Canada is delivering lots in Ontario, Quebec, and B.C., to control that excess from exceeding the 199,999 point, by June 30th! They can also put them on Trucks, Trains, and Delivery Lots, for a Blow Out Sales Day, on July 1st!

pjwood1

My local SC lot is filling with M3s. If not already, I would bet fewer actually get delivered and the lot will be full through the last week of June. Only 17 days to go. I have never seen the stack they already have, which isn’t too surprising.

I bet by this time next quarter the broader media will begin educating everyone on how the tax-credit works. A big, free-advertising, debate will ensue about Tesla “unfairly” playing the tax-credit to its advantage. Musk won’t need to message, because the shorts and haters will do that for him, as they make noise about how “Obama-phone” cheap the car is. This, of course, will only help sell the car and be interpreted as “Get ‘um before the credit runs out!!”.

The quarter of uncapped $7,500 rebates is about to begin.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Seems that any thought of them not meeting 200,000 in June is out the window now?”

Look at the calendar: it’s June 13, and whatever Tesla could in theory do to delay crossing the 200,000 milestone until July, has to be done no later than about June 23, because most of the last week of deliveries will already be in transit by then.

The only news that could possibly be related to Tesla delaying crossing the milestone to July is the increase in deliveries to Ottawa, and at the absolute maximum (according to the VINs) that’s only going to be 3000 units for all of Canada… which simply isn’t enough to push the milestone to July.

Look at it this way, Mark: Based on the sales projections last year, Tesla should have passed the milestone in Q1 this year. As it is, they’re gonna pass it in Q2. So I submit from Tesla’s viewpoint, that looks like a win for its customers.

Expecting Tesla to delay it voluntarily was, in my opinion, never a realistic scenario.

BroncoBet

Do you still hold to this position? Tesla has aways done a masterfull job of managing credits and subsidies, it would be a shock if they dropped the ball now.Bloomberg has them at 1566 a week of 3’s today and quickly escalating to over 4K,all of these vehicles can be sold in the third quarter.
In the past few days we’ve seen videos of large parking lots with 6 or 7 hundred cars being loaded onto transporters. Financially they are aiming to have a horrific 2Q and possibly a profit in the 3rd quarter.If they average 3K a week of production of 3’s and have a carryover of 8K that’s 44K in one quarter at at least $50K or 1.8 billion without measuring the S and X.

ffbj

Probably one of the stupidest things you can do is be short Tesla, but then everybody knows the world is filled with stupid people.

Nix

Volatile stock is volatile.

It will go up and down by definition.

ffbj

Btw this has been a short squeeze as the percentage of stock held short is irrelevant to whether it’s a squeeze or not.
In that other shorts could come in, while current shorts cover, exiting their positions, they are being squeezed out of holding Tesla short . It just requires a bit of logical thought to conclude that shorting Tesla has been a losers game, especially long term shorts.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup. It’s possible to make money short-selling TSLA in the short term, but in the long term that is a guaranteed money loser.

What’s very strange is that so much of the serial Tesla bashing comes from long-term short-sellers! For example, “tftf” posted a bit of anti-Tesla FUD here just the other day. Wonder how much he has lost in the several TSLA short squeezes? It’s most likely that he’s lost quite a bit! Not that he’d ever admit it…

DrDauger

It’s interesting how much quieter the negative chatter (not zero, just much less) about Tesla is just when this TSLA rally started. It’s like the shorts stopped their attack ads, trying to regroup and decide what to do next. It feels like the calm before the storm.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Don’t worry. Any other story that they can spin 180deg on will wake them up.

Pushmi-Pullyu

It’s because all but the most foolish TSLA short-sellers have exited their positions, so no longer have any motive to waste their time posting anti-Tesla FUD to social media forums. Take a good look at the names of those who still are posting FUD — those are the most foolish of the lot; the biggest losers!

Ah, schadenfreude… 🙂

Rafael Sabatini

You do realize this isn’t actually true, right? Very few have gone to the market to cover. It continues to set records as “the most shorted stock ever”.

Whether they are betting correctly or not is another story, but the stock continues to have very high levels of short interest.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Well, given that you are one of the serial anti-Tesla FUDsters, it’s hardly a surprise that you are much more aware of the day-to-day TSLA “short” activity than I am.

There are subjects on which I treasure my ignorance! 😉

Mark.ca

You’re obviously not a trader otherwise you would know this stuff. TSLA was top 7 on the hardest to borrow list at IB where i trade. Top 7! I’m supporting Tesla but to say they are in danger is an understatement. An economic downturn when valuations squeeze will push it to the brink, they need to move fast now.

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Ron M

Tesla probably already is producing 5,000 TM3 a week and it’s only going to get better.

BenG

I’ve not heard any official pronouncements that they’re producing 5k/week and I doubt they are. Is the line even running again?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Is there any rational reason to believe that it’s not running again? Do you think we need webcams positioned above the Model 3 production lines (reportedly there are now two of them) to keep you posted 24/7 on whether the line happens to be running at any given minute?

If you did have that much real-time info, what good would it do you?

Robert Weekley

Unrelated, but as an aside, there is a particular part I install on our Jet at the Factory where we build them, that, if we had a correct tool, it could b done in a few minutes, instead of the 30 to 60 minutes it currently takes!

If Tesla is able to do what we don’t seem to be able to do, in making things right for their production workers, to simplify dificult build steps, I can see how they can speed up their build rate!

Nix

Long time ago I had a job where I needed a more powerful computer in order to get something done in about an hour that would normally take all day. I begged and begged my manager and got nowhere, with him saying it was too expensive.

I spent about a week’s worth of my own wages to buy what I needed anyways. My productivity went through the roof and I was quickly recognized for my work. I was made the team lead, and then within 6 months I was made manager. By the end of the year I had 2 people leave the team/company, and instead of hiring new workers to fill their spots, I used my budget to buy everyone left the computers they needed.

I was now under budget and out-producing other groups, and all my team were considered wunderkind by upper management who never looked deep enough into the budget numbers to figure out it was all because I spent money on the right tools. Crazy.

David Green

WRONG… 1900 last week

BroncoBet

Latest numbers are 1566,but about to bound upwards to over 4K.

agzand

Tesla’s stock price is at a critical point, because they have convertible bonds that are due in early 2019. If they can’t get the stock to $550 or so by that time, the bonds will be redeemed and They need more cash, about a billion dollars.

BroncoBet

No, I thought the conversion price was about where it is right now an if it stays here all they are out is dilution by issuance of more shares, and if the price dropped ,they’d have to pay in cash.
This stock is somewhat volatile so there’s lots of time between now and then.

Nix

You are confusing Solar City bonds with Tesla bonds. Tesla bonds are worth 1 billion, and are due March 2019, but they have a conversion price of $359.87. The Solar City bonds at $550 conversion price are way less than the Billion dollars and aren’t due in 2019. You seem to be cherry picking bits and pieces from both sets of bonds, and then presenting them as if they were one.

The 2019 Tesla bonds have quite a good change of conversion based on a successful 2nd half of 2018.

The only thing I don’t know is if you don’t know any better, and are just confused on the facts? Or if you are intentionally falsely conflating the facts just to spread FUD you know is false. So which is it? Did you simple get all your facts wrong, in which case you can simply say “my bad, I went from memory and got the facts wrong” and end it there? Or are you intentionally spreading falsehoods, and therefore will never admit you were wrong, and try to continue to flim-flam us?

agzand

Wow slow down cowboy! Yes maybe I mixed up some numbers, but it doesn’t make a difference, there are convertible bonds at $550 that at current prices won’t convert, and more bonds at $360 that may or may not convert. Either way there is a risk and Tesla will do anything to manipulate stock price higher. Even if the bonds convert, the ballooning float of Tesla shares is what have kept a lid on share price, while every other growth company has tripled in the past few years.

Nix

Don’t call me “Cowboy”, slowpoke. “Maybe”? There is no maybe about it. The difference is about three-quarters of a billion dollars, so when you are whining about a billion dollars, and you are wrong by three-quarters of a billion dollars, anybody but a complete horse’s backside would simply apologize for being badly wrong and stop digging. Instead you keep digging.

Are you seriously under such a massive level of delusion that after 2 quarters of profits, that TSLA stocks are more likely to be lower than where they are at this second (currently above the $359.87 conversion price) than much higher? Is that the BS you are trying to fear-monger us with? That somehow AFTER the Model 3 hits 20K+ per month in production, and Tesla shows 2 quarters of profits, and while they are in the middle of launching the Model Y, that we should expect the stock should be lower than where it is now? Do you know how silly that sounds? Stop the nonsense, and when you are wrong, just admit being wrong

agzand

You are obviously clueless. It doesn’t matter what I expect. There is high possibility for stock to be lower that what it is today in early 2019.

ffbj
Another Euro point of view
Well probably the smart measure of investors sentiment about Tesla is still the bonds markets (has the bond market ever been wrong ?). As for the stock, either you are in to support Tesla mission and and as such do buy the stock with disregard for gains or losses, if not if you enter market now, you are likely a bit of a fool, short or long. Short because Tesla stock is still mostly about emotions so fundamentals have not much saying, longs because this company still has much to prove . Now what is ironical right now is that Musk is more and more admitting that Tesla needs to act as a “normal” company to do what is expected from companies, that is posting a profit. Needing to lay off workers to post profits (thus effectively slowing growth down) , admitting that producing $35k Model 3 now would run the company into the ground (thus de facto torpedoing the amazing gross margins narrative). Now what could become an issue is that by starting to act like a normal company people may start to assess its value as a “normal” car company as well. I still think that shorts have… Read more »