UK To Ban New Gas/Diesel Cars By 2040, EVs For The Win

JUL 26 2017 BY MARK KANE 31

The British government has announced a plan to ban the sales of new conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans in 2040, which would result in a nearly zero emission fleet as early as 2050.

Plug-in Electric Car Registrations in UK – June 2017

It seems that air pollution issues (as we have seen on other areas like China) has encouraged the government to take bolder actions against petrol vehicles, as the electrification of every automobile in the future is planned.

“The Government confirmed today that it will end the sale of all new conventional petrol and diesel cars by 2040, as it unveiled new plans to tackle air pollution.”

We assume that between the 2017 and 2040 there will be a gradual increase of EV market share, both organic and through new regulations to have to change be as least disruptive as possible.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling said he hopes for almost all the cars and vans on the road to be zero emission by 2050:

“We are taking bold action and want nearly every car and van on UK roads to be zero emission by 2050 which is why we’ve committed to investing more than £600m in the development, manufacture and use of ultra-low emission vehicles by 2020”

The clean air strategy includes also includes £3 billion of new spending ($3.1 billion).

  • £255 million implementation fund for all immediate work required to deliver plans within eight months to address poor air quality in the shortest time possible
  • £1bn – Ultra low emissions vehicles. This includes investing nearly £100m in the UK’s charging infrastructure and funding the Plug In Car and Plug In Van Grant Schemes.
  • £290m – National Productivity Investment Fund. In the Autumn Statement 2016, a further £290 million was committed for reducing transport emissions which includes £100 million for new buses and retrofit (of which £40million is made available today), £50 million for a Plug In Taxi programme and £80 million for ULEV charging infrastructure.
  • £11m – Air Quality Grant. We have awarded over £11 million under our Air Quality Grant scheme to help local authorities improve air quality.
  • £89m – Green Bus Fund. The UK Government has invested a total of almost £89 million via the Green Bus Fund to help bus companies and local authorities in England to put over 1200 new low carbon buses on the roads.
  • £27m – Clean Bus Technology Fund and Clean Vehicle Technology Fund. Since 2013, Government has awarded over £27 million to retrofit almost 3,000 of the oldest vehicles (mainly buses) including through the Clean Bus Technology Fund & Clean Vehicle Technology Fund.
  • £1.2bn – Cycling and walking. In April 2017, the UK Government published its Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy which identifies £1.2 billion which may be invested in cycling and walking from 2016-2021.
  • £100m – National road network. Through the Road Investment Strategy, the UK Government has allocated a ring-fenced £100 million for an Air Quality Fund available through to 2021 for Highways England to help improve air quality on its network.

Details of the strategy can be found here: gov.uk – Plan for roadside NO2 concentrations published

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31 Comments on "UK To Ban New Gas/Diesel Cars By 2040, EVs For The Win"

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Chris O

Good for the UK. At the rate EVs are improving in cost and practicality plus the trend towards autonomous driving I doubt anybody would even still consider getting an increasingly costly and inferior by comparison traditional car after 2030 but there is still some symbolic value there I suppose.

Or maybe one should read this as reassurance towards the oil lobby: don’t worry, despite the fact that there is probably no longer any reason to accept any direct vehicle emissions any more within a decade or so you can keep up the pollution until 2040.

Nada

+1
Banning ICE sales in 2040 is silly as they will largely be irrevelant way before then just like this law…

Chris O

Exactly. To actually impress anybody the UK and France should have proposed a complete ban on the *use* rather than just the sales of ICE vehicles by 2040. Assuming an average lifespan of 15 years for a car people would really have to think twice about still investing in internal combustion by 2025.

Ocean Railroader

What I’m wondering about now is if the EV’s start gushing in on the roads wouldn’t over time unless the government pores money into keeping old gas stations open.

You might start to see the old system of gas stations start decaying as gs stations close due to lack of oil sales.

What makes this statement funny is they are opening a new gas station in my area in the next few weeks.

It’s more of a signal to business and the world at large for planning. `Hey world – this is the way we want to go – plan accordingly.’

FISHEV

“…as they [ICE vehicles] will largely be irrevelant way before then just like this law…”

As noted by the battery mfgs. and industry analysts, the improvements in Lion battery in both power and cost have leveled out and ICE vehicles will more likely maintain their ~$10,000 advantage over EV’s along with convenience issues for the foreseeable future which is to 2040.

Without government mandate and incentives, conversion to EV’s will not happen to get to 100% EV sales by 2040 in order for us to have sustainable non-polluting transportation system by 2050, the deadline laid out by climate scientists. That deadline is likely optimistic as global warming changes are happening faster than most pessimistic prediction and we are increasing our green house gas emissions not decreasing them.

Asak

What are you basing this on? I don’t recall reading anywhere that battery tech has “leveled out”. The costs are still going down quite quickly and that’s without even large economies of scale yet. I just don’t buy this at all. EVs are going to keep getting cheaper and I expect they’ll reach price parity by 2025.

przemo_li

He refers to strawman argument peddaled by ff lovers.

Basically battery costs started from 1000’s.

So if You plot it, and then eyeball it….

In my country at least they tech You better at the age of 12. When percentages are introduced.

Industry estimate is 100$per kWh for cost effectiveness. Tesla wants to go below that with gigafactory and hundreds of thausands of of sales.

But do note that since S/X are in luxury market, Tesla have ample margins to be easily profitable, with them.

Tosho

That’s what politicians do. They label other people’s achievements as their own and they always act late to avoid any risk….

CLIVE

Wow 22 years from now.

EV’s will conquer regardless.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’m not sure it’s realistic to talk about political goals for 23 or even 33 years from now; long-term goals tend to change with every election, and goals that far away tend to be more expressions of hope at best (and at worst, cynical empty promises), rather than what is practically achievable by politicians.

But the short-term “by 2020” goals described here look like the UK is moving toward plug-in EVs and away from petroleum-burning vehicles in a very aggressive manner. Would that the USA were doing the same!

Go John Bull!

FISHEV

“I’m not sure it’s realistic to talk about political goals for 23 or even 33 years from now”

It is the job of good government to do exactly that. Pretty much have to in order to give industry and the infrastructure time to adapt. And having the ability to adapt over the longest possible time makes for the best adaption.

And political push really doesn’t change that much. Most businesses know that the Trump/GOP backward looking ideology has no future and doesn’t help them adapt to the future the rest of the world is embracing. The pendulum will swing back pretty quickly from current Trump/GOP extremism. Even that has been mostly talk. We have not seen the MPG standards reversed. We have not see the EV tax credit reversed.

Mik

10 years maybe, not 23 years

Just_Chris

I know past performance is no indication of future performance but the UK government has a pretty good track record of continually moving in the same and right direction. Yes different ruling parties slow things down or speed them up but overall they have kept going even after elections have changed the party in charge.

This set of policies has also been put in place at the request of the courts so changing it dramatically will likely lead to litigation.

The other thing to keep in mind is that healthcare in the UK is paid for by the government. At 18% of the total tax revenue, 3 times the defense budget, things that can improve peoples health are generally taken reasonably seriously by government. Hence the sugar tax, tobacco tax, high fuel tax, high beer and spirits taxs, London congestion charge, the national Lottery (an idiot tax that pays for sports facilities), etc. These taxes are not always attributed to health benefits but when doing cost benefit analysis of a proposed new tax in the dark corridors of Whitehall they do mean that there is tangible benefit to them that might not necessarily be taken into account in other countries.

Someone out there

I expect that to occur all over the EU soon. It is absolutely necessary and it’s not really that hard to do. Announcing it however does put pressure on car manufacturers to start working.

Ocean Railroader

I would use EV’s and Solar power as a plan to stop using Oil and Gas imported from Russia.

Damocles Axe

I believe that these “ban diesel and gas” rules will greatly benefit traditional car companies who find themselves unable to commit resources to EV production because it obsoletes their own IP and production equipment, reduces short-term profits, and frightens share-holders.

Only laws “threatening” the future of diesel and gas car company profits is enough to overcome “resistance to change” inherent in most companies (and people in general).

Gazz

It sends the right signal to the industry. Now to watch new EVs come to market.

windbourne

No, it does not. It sends the WORST signal. It says that you have mulitiple decades to change. They have known for the last 10 years that changes were coming. They are fighting things and UK caved.

Asak

EVs aren’t proven enough yet for them to set a closer deadline. Would I prefer they set 2030 as the phase-out? Absolutely. Personally, I believe the technology will be there long before then (probably by around 2025) and that a 2030 phase-out would be aggressive, but achievable. However for the general public or general politician, that is currently too extreme.

If things look good by 2025, maybe the ban gets moved up to say 2035.

Ocean Railroader

If they are going to put 1.2 billion in walking and biking.

The UK could put a few hundred million into narrow boat canal infrastructure to reopen some of the old canals for walking and bikes and narrow boats.

unlucky

“conventional petrol and diesel cars”

So they mean non-hybrids? 2040 is a very weak target for such a move.

What does this really mean?

Don Zenga

They should not club Gas & Diesel vehicles together and put a long 2040 timeline.

Instead the diesel private vehicles (Cars, Vans, SUVs) should be banned first by 2030 and this is absolutely feasible.

Then by 2035, Gas vehicles should be banned still allowing hybrids and plugins to be sold.

Finally by 2040, all petro fuel based vehicles should be banned.

windbourne

Nothing gutsy about that. In fact, long before then, gas/diesel vehicles will only be sold for specialty situations (series hybrids for long-distance off-road; military vehicles; etc).

A nation saying that they will end it in 2025 is more like it. And if California CARB had a pair, they would slowly increase the % of no emissions; start in 2020 with 10%, and then raise it by 10% EACH YEAR. In fact, they might pause at say 80-90%. Then decide again in another 5 years if more is needed.

Asak

California and CARB have really been pretty aggressive in pushing clean tech and EVs. CARB actually wanted them in the late 90s, early 00s, but ended up failing in the face of industry resistance. I wouldn’t be surprised if CARB goals get revised to be significantly more demanding as the technology develops.

Loboc

Blowing smoke. EV will be cheaper than ICE way before 2040 or 2050. This is a non-goal.

Just_Chris

Tell that to Fiat – this is a clear signal that will drive everyone in the right direction.

There is no question now that if your business needs to sell cars in the UK or France to survive that you have a future beyond 2040 unless you develop and sell zero emission vehicles. That makes a big difference when talking about investments in new car factories that might take 25 years to pay back or when developing a new drive train that might take that long to develop to the point where it is cheap enough to go into a low cost hatch back.

Just_Chris

doh! “…no future…”

Also forget about a new oil refinery in the UK or France. That is pretty significant if you consider that most of their refineries will close in the next 10 to 15 years

Alan

Maybe the government here already had this planned when they decided to make all major petrol (Gas) and service stations have to install EV chargers from next year ?

Simply turn them all into multi EV charge stations over time ?

islandboy
About two years ago, someone in the comments section of this web site linked to a video of a presentation at the AltCars Expo and Conference,Sept 19, 2014 by a guy named Tony Seba. In 2014 Seba was saying that EVs will cost less than comparable ICE powered cars across all price segments by 2025 based on some cost projections he did at the time. He projected that no cars with ICEs will be on the market by 2030 There are a couple of new presentations from last month in which Seba provides updates on the progress of costs relative to his 2014 projections. What he is saying now is that everything is happening faster than he projected, so much so that he is now saying EVs will cost less than comparable ICE powered vehicles, even at the low end of the market, in another three to four years. He has also brought forward his projection for the end of ICE sales by five years to 2025! If Seba is even optimistic by five years or so (in his original projection of the end of ICE sales by 2030), talk of banning ICE sales by 2040 is moot since they… Read more »
RussB

It won’t be a “nearly zero emission fleet”, it will be a “mostly elsewhere-emission fleet”.