Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Increased: 60,000 On July 16, 2023

The recent slight rebound concerns mostly the United States.

Tesla EVs

Mark Kane

By: Mark Kane

Aug 2, 2023 at 8:40am ET

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The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog improved during the first half of July, rebounding from a record low level at the end of June.

According to Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike / Twitter), an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of July 16, 2023, was roughly 60,000 units. That's some 11,000 (or 22 percent) more than about two weeks ago.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.

Such volume corresponds to about 18 days of manufacturing capacity (up by one day in a matter of roughly two weeks), according to the report.

That's an interesting outcome, because there was no significant price reduction, like in January or April. There were some noticeable rebates on new cars in existing inventory though.

We also wonder how the announced plant upgrades (scheduled for the third quarter) will affect supply and the overall balance between supply and demand, which is the primary factor behind the estimated order backlog.

A lower supply in Q3, and a new "refreshed Model 3" offer (higher demand related to a new product), potentially might boost the order backlog quite noticeably later this year (Q3/Q4).

For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):

July 16, 2023: 60,000 (18 days)
June 30, 2023: 49,000 (17 days)
June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
May 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
May 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
October: 31, 2022: 285,000
September 30, 2022: 299,000
August 31, 2022: 385,000
March-July, 2022: around 470,000
January-February, 2022: less than 400,000

In terms of particular markets, the balance between supply and demand remains marked "red" (considered too low) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).

One of the most interesting things is that in the US, the estimated order backlog increased in about two weeks from over 7,000 to over 17,000, which represents about 16 days of supply (up by five days).

What do you think?

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The situation in Europe and China was relatively stable.

Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):

United States: 17,378 (16 days) - increased by 5 days
Canada: 888 (16 days) - no change
Europe: 14,373 (21 days) - decreased by 1 day
China: 14,423 (15 days) - decreased by 1 day
other: 12,760 (38 days) - decreased by 2 days
Total: 59,822 (18 days) - increased by 1 day