Estimated Tesla Order Backlog: 75,000 On May 31, 2023

Numbers appear to be relatively stable.

Tesla electric cars

Mark Kane

By: Mark Kane

Jun 22, 2023 at 3:01pm ET

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The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog did not change much in May, compared to April, which indicates a balance between supply and demand.

According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of May 31, 2023, was roughly 75,000. That's 7,000 more than at the end of April, but 8,000 less than on May 16. In other words, the numbers go up and down a bit, but in general, the situation can be described as relatively stable.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.

The 75,000 units correspond to about 22 days of manufacturing capacity (down by one day in a matter of two weeks), according to the report.

We are very curious about the numbers for mid-June, but those are not yet available in the open version of the report.

For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):

May 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
May 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
October: 31, 2022: 285,000
September 30, 2022: 299,000
August 31, 2022: 385,000
March-July, 2022: around 470,000
January-February, 2022: less than 400,000

In terms of particular markets, the balance between supply and demand is still marked "red" (too short) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China), in comparison to a potential sales volume of 1.8+ million units annually.

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In the US specifically, the estimated order backlog decreased in two weeks from almost 40,000 to almost 35,000, which represents about 24 days of supply (down by three days). Decreases were also noted in Europe and China.

Estimated order backlog:

United States: 34,473 (24 days) - decreased by 3 days in two weeks
Canada: 1,484 (22 days) - decreased by 5 days in two weeks
Europe: 15,710 (19 days) - decreased by 4 days in two weeks
China: 10,939 (15 days) - decreased by 1 day in two weeks
other: 12,738 (50 days) - increased by 8 days in two weeks
Total: 75,334 (22 days) - decreased by 1 day in two weeks