The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog remains relatively stable in early 2023, with slight signs of a decrease, which would indicate that supply slightly exceeds demand.
According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of March 31, 2023, was roughly 102,000, which is about 4,000 units or nearly 4 percent) less than a month earlier.
The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model), as shown in the attached tweet.
The number of 102,000 units corresponds to about 28 days of manufacturing capacity (down two days in a matter of one month), according to the report.
Those are still minor moves, but if we consider the recent price reduction in the United States (two times in April) and in Europe (by as much as 10 percent), it seems that Tesla is trying to make the cars less expensive to increase volume.
For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):
- March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
- March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
- February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: around 470,000
- January-February, 2022: less than 400,000
In terms of particular markets, it seems that in the United States, the estimated order backlog is decreasing faster than in other markets. As of the end of March, it was just 44,599 units (worth some 32 days of waiting).
On the other hand, in Europe, things improved and the number increased to 33,430 (33 days).
We are now eager to see what will happen next, after April's price reductions, because at some point the cars should become affordable enough to support the production scale of up to 2 million units per year.
Estimated order backlog:
- United States: 44,599 (32 days) - decrease by 4 days in two weeks
- Canada: 2,010 (27 days) - decreased by 2 days in two weeks
- Europe: 33,430 (33 days) - increase by 4 days in two weeks
- China: 12,008 (15 days) - decreased by 1 day in two weeks
- other: 9,768 (44 days) - no change
- Total: roughly 101,815 (28 days) - decreased by 1 day in two weeks