Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Rebounds To Above 100,000 In January 2023

"Price really matters" - Elon Musk.

Estimated Tesla Order Backlog - January 15, 2023 (source: Troy Teslike)

Mark Kane

By: Mark Kane

Feb 6, 2023 at 10:52am ET

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The two first weeks of January bring a noticeable increase in the estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog.

According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated order backlog as of January 15, 2023 was 107,000 - up by 33,000 or 45 percent, compared to 74,000 as of December 31, 2022.

For reference, it was 163,000 as of December 8 and 190,000 as of November 30, at nearly 300,000 at the end of September and through October, nearly 400,000 at the end of August, and close to 500,000 in the period between March and July.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model), as shown in the attached tweet.

The number of 107,000 units corresponds to about 30 days of manufacturing capacity, according to the report. Previously, it was estimated at 23 days on December 31, 40 days on December 8, 44 days on November 30, 70 days on October 6, and 78 days on September 21.

It seems that at least for now, Tesla managed to reverse the trend and started to receive more orders than before (more than the current production output).

The increased estimated order backlog does not surprise us, as Tesla significantly lowered prices in the United States (as well as becoming eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit for Model 3 and Model Y cars). Prices were reduced also in China, which boosted sales in January, according to initial reports, as well as in Europe and many other markets.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during the Tesla Q4 and full-year 2022 financial results and Q&A webcast, that "price really matters." We expect that Tesla will face demand higher than supply and, if that happens, the company will be tweaking prices carefully to find a new balance at which the plants will be fully utilized to maximize revenues and profits. However, there is always a risk that it's a temporary boost - no one knows the future.

What do you think?

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It's worth to note that the estimated order backlog of 107,000 electric cars is a global average. Troy Teslike lists a few markets:

US: 38,697 (30 days)
Canada: 2,774 (31 days)
Europe: 30,246 (35 days)
China: 14,258 (17 days)
other: 21,143 (76 days)
Total: roughly 107,000 (30 days)

As we can see, the difference between the three largest markets markets (US, Europe and China) is now relatively small (17-35 days).