Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Decreased To Just 163,000 As Of Dec 8

That's down 27,000 in just one week.

Estimated Tesla Order Backlog - December 8, 2022 (source: Troy Teslike)

Mark Kane

By: Mark Kane

Dec 26, 2022 at 8:30am ET

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Tesla's estimated global electric car order backlog continued its quick decrease in the early days of December, reaching the lowest level in more than a year.

According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source of Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated order backlog as of December 8, 2022 was roughly 163,000 - down by 27,000 or 14% in just one week from November 30 (190,000).

For reference, it was at nearly 300,000 at the end of September and through October, nearly 400,000 at the end of August, and close to 500,000 in the period between March and July. In other words, the total value has lowered by more than 300,000 or two-thirds since July.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times), as shown in the attached tweet.

The number of 163,000 units corresponds to about 40 days of manufacturing capacity, according to the report. Previously it was estimated at 44 days on November 30, 70 days on October 6 and 78 days on September 21.

If nothing changes, Tesla will end the year 2022 with a very low order backlog - very likely, below 100,000 and 30 days (global average level). It means that Tesla's production of new electric cars quite significantly exceeds sales.

One of the most interesting findings is that the estimated order backlog started to decrease also in Europe, as more and more ships arrived from China (Tesla's main export hub is in Shanghai). On top of that, the European plant in Germany is ramping up production reaching new record levels.

China was the first of the three main markets that dried out. Then, also in the US things started to change (but there are different reasons - like changes in the federal tax credit incentive, which prompted some of the customers to delay purchase).

The detailed table indicates that only the most popular versions of Tesla cars in the US still have some noticeable wait times (a month or higher). That's the Model 3 Long Range, Model Y Long Range, Model S Long Range and Model X Long Range.

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In China, the estimated average wait times are lower than two weeks for all Model 3/Model Y, while in Europe the average is around two months still.

The situation is very dynamic, so we expect significant changes in the coming months. A lot will depend on Tesla's price policy in early 2023, because with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) boost of $7,500 federal tax credit, Tesla might do pretty well.