The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog remains stable, above 100,000 units, although on the local level, the situation is quite dynamic.
According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated order backlog as of February 28, 2023, was 106,000, so exactly the same as two weeks earlier (February 15, 2023).
That's a clear indication that the price reductions, applied globally, allowed Tesla to find an equilibrium between supply and demand, after several months of rapidly decreasing order backlog in late 2022.
The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model), as shown in the attached tweet.
The number of 106,000 units corresponds to about 30 days of manufacturing capacity (no change here), according to the report.
For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):
- February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: around 470,000
- January-February, 2022: less than 400,000
Probably the most interesting thing in the latest report is that while the global estimated order backlog appears to be stable, that's not the case on the local level.
According to Troy Teslike, we can see that the number of customers that await Tesla cars in the United States consistently increases, and at almost 69,000, is higher than in all the other markets combined.
The first thought would be that the massive price reductions (a few times adjusted), combined with the $7,500 federal tax credit for Model 3 and Model Y (and lack of eligibility for some imported competitors), really attracted a high number of customers. If things remain like this, Tesla might again increase the prices here and there by the usual $500 or $1,000, but we would not expect anything drastic right now.
On the contrary, in Europe and China, the queue of customers and expected delivery times shortened. We also saw reports that Tesla offered some interesting rebates for the Model 3/Model Y cars in Europe (in transit). It means that price reduction might continue in 2023 to maintain production/sales volume.
Estimated order backlog:
- United States: 68,748 (42 days) - increased by 4 days in two weeks
- Canada: 3,472 (40 days) - decreased by 10 days in two weeks
- Europe: 14,211 (19 days) - decreased by 3 days in two weeks
- China: 11,201 (17 days) - stable
- other: 8,628 (56 days) - decreased by 13 days in two weeks
- Total: roughly 106,260 (30 days) - stable