The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog appears to be stabilizing at around 100,000 units.
According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated order backlog as of February 15, 2023 was 106,000 - so about the same as a month ago - 107,000 as of January 15, 2023, although meanwhile there was a slight decline to 87,000 (January 31, 2023).
The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model), as shown in the attached tweet.
The number of 106,000 units corresponds to about 30 days of manufacturing capacity, according to the report.
For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: around 470,000
- January-February, 2022: less than 400,000
In other words, through noticeable price reductions around the world, Tesla managed to reverse the trend and started to receive more orders than before (on par with the current production output).
It's worth noting that the estimated order backlog of 106,000 electric cars is a global average. Troy Teslike lists a few markets:
- United States: 56,951 (38 days)
- Canada: 4,511 (50 days)
- Europe: 17,573 (22 days)
- China: 13,610 (17 days)
- other: 13,645 (69 days)
- Total: roughly 106,290 (30 days)
It's interesting that in the US, the estimated backlog increased by over 18,000 units in one month. It means that the massive price reductions (a few times adjusted) and eligibility for the $7,500 federal tax credit for Model 3 and Model Y not only allowed to balance the supply and demand but also attracted more orders than the company can process.
The situation in Europe, on the other hand, is different. The estimated order backlog decreased by over 12,000 units. In China, the balance remains stable.