Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Weakened Again: 68,000 On April 30, 2023

Is this the new low?

Tesla electric cars

Mark Kane

By: Mark Kane

May 17, 2023 at 9:46am ET

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The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog once again decreased in the second half of April and it seems that it reached the lowest level since January 2022 (and most likely the new low in a few years).

According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of April 30, 2023, was roughly 68,000, which is about 4,000 units (or 5 percent) less than two weeks earlier.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.

The number of 68,000 units corresponds to about 21 days of manufacturing capacity (down by one day in a matter of two weeks), according to the report.

We know that the company applied a noticeable price cut on April 19, which indicates that Tesla is aware that it has to increase the value proposition to maintain/increase the volume. Production of Tesla cars is increasing (it recently reached 5,000 units per week in Texas), so there is constant pressure to attract more and more customers.

Prices were adjusted in the United States several times (see the latest change here), including a deep cut in January and a noticeable cut in April, to balance supply and demand. It will be very interesting to see the results in May, but we guess that anything below 100,000 units is quite low for Tesla (considering the expected production of 1.8+ million units annually).

For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):

April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
October: 31, 2022: 285,000
September 30, 2022: 299,000
August 31, 2022: 385,000
March-July, 2022: around 470,000
January-February, 2022: less than 400,000

In terms of particular markets, the balance is still marked "red" (too low) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).

In the US specifically, the estimated order backlog decreased in two weeks from almost 29,000 to almost 24,000, which represents about 20 days of supply (down by three days).

What do you think?

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In Europe, the number increased from over 21,000 to over 24,000 (but the wait time is shorter a bit, probably because production is higher as well). In China, the situation is relatively stable at 11,000-12,000.

Estimated order backlog:

United States: 23,842 (20 days) - decreased by 3 days in two weeks
Canada: 2,295 (34 days) - increased by 11 days in two weeks
Europe: 24,423 (23 days) - decreased by 1 day in two weeks
China: 11,117 (16 days) - increased by 1 day in two weeks
other: 6,354 (29 days) - decreased by 8 days in two weeks
Total: 68,031 (21 days) - decreased by 1 day in two weeks