The expected result of shifting to overseas is seen in our estimates again this month, but this doesn't mean that demand for the Model 3 has fallen.
We believe the cheapest Model 3 will soon begin to steal some would-be sales from vehicles like the Chevy Bolt, Nissan LEAF e-Plus, Hyundai Kona Electric and Kia Niro EV. But that's in the longer outlook. However, now that this version is harder to order, it may not have quite the impact we first suspected.
Our estimates show that Tesla delivered some 10,050 Model 3 to U.S. buyers in April 2019. That's slightly down compared to the 10,175 in March, but hugely up compared to the 5,750 we estimated for February and 6,500 we estimated for January and it blows away the year-over-year figure from April 2018 (3,750 Model 3 estimated sales in the U.S.).
For April, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:
Tesla Model S – 825
Tesla Model X – 1,050
These combined figures are a bit weak for an April month. For example, in April 2018, Tesla sold 1,250 Model S and 1,025 Model X. Meanwhile, in March 2019, Tesla sold an estimated 2,275 Model S and 2,175 Model X, so April represents a significant combined drop. However, we see a rise in orders now, likely due to the recently announced range boost, but those orders won't be fulfilled right away.
