Musk Says Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is 6,000 A Week By June

APR 18 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 70

Following the temporary shutdown of Tesla Model 3 production, CEO Elon Musk has big plans for the months to come.

We reported about a brief Model 3 production stoppage a few months back, but weren’t sure if it was “the” upcoming pause that Musk had previously talked about. It looked as though perhaps that was the case, since March deliveries were up substantially and Tesla had a stellar quarter overall. In fact, it was the automaker’s best ever.

Read This: Tesla Q1 Production Soars To New High Of 9,766 Model 3

Red Tesla Model 3 frontHowever, it wasn’t the big planned shutdown to fix the production process and ramp up production significantly. We know that now because the automaker just closed shop for the Model 3 for up to five days to improve automation. Musk recently admitted that he went overboard with automation for the Model 3 and it seems to have taken its toll.

The reported shutdown impacts Tesla’s factory in Fremont, as well as the Gigafactory. Once complete, the CEO claims that the goal will be to double production to about 6,000 units per week. He says that by June, when accounting for some margin of error, we will see Model 3 production at a minimum of 5,000 copies per week.

A few days ago, Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker surpassed 3,000 units. However, within a day it was adjusted back down to around 2,800, which is where it stands at the time of this writing (2,866). Thus far, Tesla has missed all of Musk’s targets, but it seems that significant, newfound efforts are aiming to change that. Now is high time to get the ball rolling, and much more quickly.

According to the leaked email from Elon to employees, next month Model 3 production will be set for 3,000 to 4,000 units, and the automaker is moving to 24/7 operations. Musk writes:

Starting today at Giga and tomorrow at Fremont, we will be stopping for three to five days to do a comprehensive set of upgrades. This should set us up for Model 3 production of 3000 to 4000 per week next month.

Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.

As part of the drive towards 6k, all Model 3 production at Fremont will move to 24/7 operations. This means that we will be adding another shift to general assembly, body and paint. Please refer anyone you know who you think meets the Tesla bar for talent, drive and trust. Between Fremont and Giga, Tesla will be adding about 400 people per week for several weeks.

Musk also offers several productivity suggestions to assure the best results. A few are listed here:

– Excessive meetings are the blight of big companies and almost always get worse over time. Please get of all large meetings, unless you’re certain they are providing value to the whole audience, in which case keep them very short.

– Don’t use acronyms or nonsense words for objects, software or processes at Tesla. In general, anything that requires an explanation inhibits communication. We don’t want people to have to memorize a glossary just to function at Tesla.

– In general, always pick common sense as your guide. If following a “company rule” is obviously ridiculous in a particular situation, such that it would make for a great Dilbert cartoon, then the rule should change.

To read the email in it entirety, follow the links below.

Keep the conversation going on our Forum. Start a new thread about this article and make your point heard.

Source: Electrek, JalopnikTesla Model 3 Tracker

TESLA MODEL 3

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2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

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70 Comments on "Musk Says Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is 6,000 A Week By June"

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(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Doubt it.

Me too. Might as well say 60,000 a week. But I sure wish they could make 600,000 by end of this year.

dan

They’lll produce a little more than 60,000 for all of 2018. They are announcing peak rates, that cannot be sustained all year given the state of affairs. CEOs of well run organizations aren’t talking about how to run meetings – indicating a lot of underlying managerial chaos.

Get Real

Well dan with a very little d, chaos best describes your pathetic, whining serial anti-Tesla FUD that you constantly and lamely try and spread here.

The facts show that Tesla now makes and sells more Model 3s then any other Western producers of PEVs and their production rate is climbing.

Meanwhile, many of the laggard OEMs are laying off workers and slowing production lines as they announce vehicles they will soon stop making because of a lack of demand.

SJC

You should know that no one reads your insults.

Get Real

Then why did you?

SJC

Can’t avoid idiocy right on the page, virtually no one reads the junk.

ClarksonCote

A voting scheme for posts on these pages could resolve a lot of this, hehe. 🙂

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

The I’d have to open it to see what everyone hated……..lol

ClarksonCote

Haha! Oh my, we have a voting scheme now!

MDEV

Every large organization I had work for, meetings become a huge drag, just waste of time with an outlook full of colors and of course acronyms and abbreviations to learn, the problem gets even worse in the company has nationwide branches.

vich

Spot on MDEV. And I agree with Musk. I wish the CEO of my company would articulate these simple truths. I have colleagues scheduling 1 hour meeting for items that can be dealt with in email or a ten minute conversation.

arne-nl

Hope. A funny thing. Do you really believe what you’re posting? Or is hope clouding your logical reasoning?

Tesla produced about 10k Model 3’s in Q1. That extrapolates to 40k for 2018.

The Bloomberg tracker is above 10k/month now, so that would mean about 30k for Q2. And for Q3 and Q4 it is safe to assume Tesla will be able to increase production further. But even if they don’t, that’s still 100k Model 3’s for 2018.

There is absolutely no sound reasoning behind your 60k number.

ffbj

Oh, Ye of little faith.

JR

I almost what to believe this guy and his goal, but is does not really matter 5000 or 6000 in June, they already produce 50% more than they produce model S and model X combined, in the end of 2018 they will reach there goal and this difficult beginning will be forgotten

DJ

Just remember these are aspirational goals. So if they hit 1,000 per week consistently by then you still have to be happy 🙂

Does anyone know how many shifts they are currently running and how many days a week? I mean if they are putting out 2k a week for one shift 6k a week is at least plausible if they go to 3 shifts 7 days a week.

Vexar

It’s not the shifts, it’s the robot/human labor arrangements. This is a complicated relationship not easily understood by non-employees. I bet they hit 5,000 a week by June (burst week of 6000), no problem. They redesigned the assembly line in February and got to >2000 a week. a second redesign this week plus operational efficiency through getting up to speed with it, I see it as plausible.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

They’ll probably burst at 6k here and there but not sustain.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I think that’s likely, yes. Tesla (or Elon) keeps bragging about its burst rate, but what’s important is the average production rate, which is rather lower than what they brag about.

I wish they’d stop citing burst rates. That just looks like desperation… and of course, that’s what it is: an attempt to spin the reality of how much slower this production ramp-up is than what Tesla anticipated, and even less than the scaled-back guidance at the beginning of the year.

Here’s an idea, Elon: Why don’t you try setting guidance for less than what your engineers think can be practically achieved, and then give everyone a pleasant surprise by exceeding that figure? Wouldn’t that be better than continually setting the bar impossibly high and then falling below the mark every time? I think you have passed the point of diminishing returns in trying to motivate your workers to work harder by setting impossibly high goals. Time to change to a more sustainable, more long-term method of motivating employees.

Dang, much more of this and I’ll start sounding like a Tesla basher! 😯

HH

Yeah – we can’t have that. You almost sound like you are making sense there 😉

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’ll try not to do that again. 😉

ClarksonCote

Pushmi, get out of here with your anti-Tesla serial FUDster short selling stock bashing posts! 😉

Tom

The full email says they are adding a shift to get to 3. So 2 to 3. That would imply 2000 becomes 3000 per week without much major change. Hiring and training a whole shift is the hard part there.

Miss production goals last 3 quarters…what do you do? Increase next quarter’s goal!
It all makes sense in the bizarro mind of Elon Musk. I wonder if Tesla will be able to break the $1 billion net loss mark in Q2.

Willem-Alexander

There is a certain psychology that Musk is employing:

In American Psychologist, where they published their findings, Locke and Latham wrote that not only did “specific, difficult goals consistently [lead] to higher performance than urging people to do their best,” but “the highest or most difficult goals produced the highest levels of effort and performance.”

This really proves that Musk is much smarter than you.

Doggydogworld

That strategy worked brilliantly the past 10 months!

Willem-Alexander

How do you know? Remember, it’s not meeting the goal, but setting a high goal, and achieving a higher amount than a “realistic” goal.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Going by the publicly available information, my judgement is that setting impossibly high goals has been an utter disaster for Tesla’s Model 3 ramp-up. Consider: The major bottleneck was on the production of TM3 (Tesla Model 3) battery packs at Gigafactory One. Elon admitted that the automated line wasn’t at all ready to run when they started running the TM3 assembly line at the Fremont plant. Tesla has not been forthcoming about exactly what the reason for the battery pack assembly line not working at all, but one article said the fundamental problem was that Tesla engineers could not agree with the engineers of the company installing the production line on just how those machines should be installed. So why wasn’t this problem identified by management as a non-starter, and why hadn’t it already been addressed when production started? Why did Elon wind up camping out at Gigafactory One, and even famously throwing a barbecue party on the roof of Gigafactory One? I could be wrong, but it looks to me like nobody was willing to tell Elon (or other top Tesla execs) that the battery pack assembly line wasn’t even remotely ready to go; that they would have to… Read more »
HH

Actually, it is even worse than that.

There is a recent story on SA citing court documents in a case claiming that Musk knew considerably ahead of Dec 2017 that scaling to 5K Model 3 per week was impossible.

They claim testimony from a lot of people. One of the people was responsible for part of the Model 3 production line in May 2016. He flat out told Musk that his goal of 5K/week by Dec 2017 is unachievable. They claim he was fired right after the meeting.

arne-nl

Musk and realism have a special relationship.

I think there must be a 100 counterexamples where people “in the know” told him that what he wanted is impossible and he went through with it anyway and succeeded.

It may look like a case of “shooting the messenger”, but maybe Musk felt he needed someone 100% motivated to *try* the impossible. Too much realism can lead to complacency and slippage.

We can all discuss this ad nauseam, but it is impossible to know where Model 3 production would be had Musk listened to the “wise men” and set “realistic” goals.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“I think there must be a 100 counterexamples where people ‘in the know’ told him that what he wanted is impossible and he went through with it anyway and succeeded.”

Well said!

If a Tesla manager or engineer flat-out told Elon his goal was impossible in a group meeting — rather than in private — then he should have been fired. That sort of attitude is devastating for team spirit and unity.

There’s no good reason that the ramp-up of the TM3 had to be so slow. Sure, Elon did admit he was overly ambitious in trying to use 100% automation, but far more serious — if my assessment of the underlying problem is correct — is that the complete failure of some sections of the automated battery pack production line at Gigafactory One was hidden from Elon and top management. If it hadn’t been hidden, then they would have been making a major effort to install a new production line and get that running before they started up the assembly line at the Fremont factory… not afterward!

Nix

It is very good that Elon admitted failure publicly. That creates a work environment where failure is accepted. Not as a fault, but as a sign you tried as hard as you could.

It is like in many sports when they tell athletes that if they aren’t falling they aren’t pushing hard enough. Shawn White didn’t become who he is today because he never fell. Exactly the opposite.

Sadly, much of the corporate world has become so risk adverse to any failure because short-term thinking investors are thinking in terms even shorter than quarterly results, that they will not risk any failure at all. Or even a hint of failure that actually is successful in the long term.

And Tesla is now under investigation by Cal-OSHA for under-reporting workplace injuries at the Fremont plant. That might throw a monkey wrench into their 24/7 plans.
I’m sure Tesla will put out a press release saying how the Cal-OSHA are just grandstanders that want to grab headlines by picking on poor, lil Tesla.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/18/technology/telsa-ca-osha-investigation-workplace-safety/index.html

Nix

They are mandated by law to investigate any and all accusations. That does not imply guilt.

If you personally filed a completely false accusation today with that department, by law they would have to launch an investigation. Would that make your false accusation somehow valid?

Get Real

Yeah, now that the Model 3 is the number one produced and selling Western PEV right?

What a troll.

Terawatt

As if. Nissan delivered 40% more LEAFs in March alone than Tesla did Model 3s so far this year.

Is this Leaf built in just 1 Factory?

Pushmi-Pullyu

The Leaf is built in three auto assembly plants: In Japan, the UK, and Tennessee (USA).

ROFLOL

Thousands of hate postings didn’t achieve much so what does troll1999 do? More hate posts! It all makes sense in the bizarro mind of troll1999. But..what do they say about doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result….ROFLOL!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup. Gotta wonder about the mental health of someone who claims to be a GM fanboy and a fervent supporter of the Bolt EV, yet who spends far more time and effort on InsideEVs bashing Tesla — even making a habit of posting utterly off-topic Tesla bashing posts to articles having absolutely nothing to do with Tesla — than he does on discussing and/or praising GM and its vehicles!

That dude needs some serious therapy, or drugs, or both.

Personally, I think real EV advocates are those who can show support for both Tesla and for GM’s plug-in EVs, the Volt and the Bolt EV. Hopefully that’s not just me!

” I think real EV advocates are those who can show support for both Tesla and for GM’s plug-in EVs,”

You are nothing but a paid TSLA shill. Don’t even try and pretend you support all EVs. Everyone knows you couldn’t care less about anything other than TSLA.

At least when I post my comments, I don’t have to hide behind fake names like a pansy to post them, unlike you. Grow some balls, boy!

Nix

Your real name is bro1999? Your mother clearly didn’t love you.

Get Real

Actually Mental MadBro and all around sleezy GM dealership employee, Tesla is firmly on pace to build and sell more Model 3s a week then GM sells Bolts in a month!

100% wrong, as usual.

DonC

Tesla is running through the order list pretty quickly. I have a friend who put down a depost on the second or third day. When I talked to him a week or so ago he said Tesla had sent two emails telling him he could configure his car. Not sure if he’s going to buy one, but I believe half the orders were placed the first day.

Probably reasons for this, the big one being price. But the point would be that Tesla likely can’t sell 6000/week for very long. Even 2000/week may not be sustainable. However the narrative is better if you’re production limited than demand limited.

Mats

Wolkswagen and Toyota sells almost 200 000 per week.
If you consider that outside US not many cars have been delivered and there are most probably many first day reservations there. International deliveries are scheduled for 2019. They will have plenty of customers in line for a long time.

Get Real

Don C is a long time serial anti-Tesla troll and especially an Elon Musk hater.

Like most of the trolls in this category, his reality distortion field overrides any facts or logic that contradicts his pre-conceived wet-dream fantasies of Tesla/Musk failing.

Very similar process to the Trumpsters’ unfiltered tweets devoid of reality and instead rooted in some pathological fantasy.

Pushmi-Pullyu

DonC continued his anti-Tesla FUD campaign:

“Tesla is running through the order list pretty quickly.”

Tesla bashers also predicted that Tesla would run thru the demand for the Model S and the Model X pretty quickly. How did that work out, again?
😆 😆 😆

Tesla bashers seem to think that shoveling out the same B.S. over and over and over, actually works for them! I guess they think everyone reading their comments is clueless and/or stupid. Rather insulting, innit?

They’ll need to MAKE 6k/week before they can sell 6k/week. Sounds like pushing up the production rate to a steady 6k/week (not some burst rate nonsense that are just dog and pony shows for investors) will not happen till much later this year. Likely right after TSLA suckers in more investors into another capital raise which they will desperately need in the next few months.

Cuda

They’ll get there eventually. Right now I’m concerned about the quality of these builds. It would be a mistake to compromise quality for volume.

This same story on http://www.electrek.co is more complete, includes the full email in the body, not a link out, and states his goals for Quality, Profits, Cost Controls, as well as Volume. Also mention the increasing (each week abobe 2,000) Model 3 Production volumes, for the last 3 weeks! “First, congratulations are in order! We have now completed our third full week of producing over 2000 Model 3 vehicles. The first week was 2020, the second was 2070 and we just completed 2250 last week, along with 2000 Model S/X vehicles.”

https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-model-3-production-goal-6000-units-per-week/

Terawatt

How bad must the production process design have been to be confident, in advance, that a redesign will more than double the output??

But I hope they manage to keep ramping. 25 months since I reserved and probably at least another 15 to be able to order the base model, if it ever becomes anything more than mythical…

Chris

I assume that they have some really experienced operations managers on the project, but with a 24 hour burst rate requirement of 6,000 at a sub-component level it will be really difficult to get such a complex process, as the final assembly, to a stead state rate of 5,000 per day. Anybody having worked in production has learned the hard way how big the difference Is between hitting a rate for 24 hours and achieving steady state production.

Nix

Tesla’s head of production has headed 400000 units production and Tesla has 100000 in proven S/X production

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…all Model 3 production at Fremont will move to 24/7 operations.”

That’s a bad plan. Better to have some scheduled down time for maintenance, at least a few hours on a weekend evening or night.

Trying to run 24/7 while at the same time trying to keep increasing the line speed, just means they’ll have unscheduled shutdowns when things go wrong, rather than scheduled stops to make adjustments and perform maintenance.

As has been noted in recent discussions in IEVs comments, auto makers almost never run their assembly lines 24/7. It’s just not practical.

Hiring hundreds/thousands of new factory workers, increasing work load on existing workers, and pushing to hit increased productions goals after not being able to hit previous goals the last 3 quarters….what could possibly go wrong?

The 24/7 move should definitely help with the build quality issues!

MDEV

I wonder if the Trolls haters of InsideEvs are Russian trolls? Perhaps I just wonder why you hate so much an American entrepreneur who builds in America, who creates jobs in America and has changed the Automobile industry to a more cleaner way.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Of course we’ll never know just how many of the anti-Tesla trolls are paid employees of Russian troll farms, but it seems likely that an increasing percentage of them are. The Russian trolls have spread out to affect all social media in Western countries, trying to create or exacerbate divisiveness, tribalism, and hate. The Russians have moved beyond mere propaganda to using outright, open and ongoing information warfare to attack the USA and other democracies.

But given all the FUD posted by “short” Tesla stock investors over at Desperately Seeking Liars Seeking Alpha, and the fact that we see a lot of the exact same FUD here and at least a few of the same screen names, I think it likely that a greater percentage of the anti-Tesla trolls are here only for their agenda of promoting their “short” position.

Odds are greater the TSLA fanboi crowd here are actually bots. They spew the same nonsense every time anyone dare to criticize Tesla and Musk. Just like the Cheeto Trump admin actually. So many similarities between the Cheeto heads and Tsla fanbois!

MDEV

I am on my third Tesla, if you don’t like the car, Elon, electric buy what you want, still a free country, I don’t know for how long but still. No need to hate, just move on and buy what you want, diesel or wathever just take your troll comments back to Facebook/Risia

Eddie

I believe it is a supply and demand issue. The industry EV industry does not have enough consumer demand today. True electric cars like Tesla are selling although they are only about 1/2 of the total reported number of EV’s. Hidden in the total # of EV’s sold are all the plug in hybrids that run on gasoline when the 12 – 100 miles of battery charge is depleted. Electric only market is growing at a good clip. 24000 TM3 per month will eventually add to unsold inventory. Tesla is an incredible marketing company- all free! Elon has kept them in the news. Excess inventory will be an issue if the production targets are met. So for now we’ll call it a production issue instead of a demand issue.

Lets see what whoppers Baghdad Elon has to say at the next earnings call!

Get Real

LMAO, sleezy GM stealership employee Mental MadBro checking in as usual to FUD against Tesla.

Nix

He will say they lost money and increased sales. What are you expecting?

Steven

Say what you will about Tesla and Musk, I’ll simply say this, Tesla is one of the few companies that sells all of it’s BEV offerings in Pennsylvania and other non-compliance states.

When Tesla’s just one in the crowd, then maybe I’ll think differently.

TNT

Configured my Model 3 last night. I should have my Tesla in 3-6 weeks. So excited! I reserved right before the reveal.

Will

How much? What did you get with it? Lets hope that they get to a 6k production rate not a burst rate

Nix

Cheers!

So you are one of the “golden hour” reservation holders who got in on the internet in the hour before they scheduled the reveal to happen?

It seems like there have been a flood of folks who reserved around the same time getting their invitations.

Nix

It is becoming a bad sign for insideev’s that such a dominant number of anti-Tesla posters are dominating every Tesla story, often outnumbering people actually interested in Tesla’s posting on Tesla stories.

When we look at the raw numbers, Tesla is outselling all other EV’s in the US by a wide margin, and another order of magnitude of reservation holders just waiting to buy theirs. With these market statistics, there should be a dominant number of posters actually interested in Tesla’s posting on Tesla stories on an EV site if insideev’s is able to successfully tap into that growing demographic.

The fact that the opposite often seems true shows that Insideev’s is losing the largest growing sector of EV fans as their audience. They are losing people interested in Tesla’s at the very time that Tesla ownership is massively expanding. This same story is pushing towards 1,000 comments on another EV website.

This is not healthy.