Morgan Stanley Predicts 10 Million Tesla Vehicles On The Road In 10 Years



Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

It seems Morgan Stanley gets more bullish regarding Tesla on a daily basis.

This may come as no surprise to some since the electric automaker’s stock has risen a whopping 63 percent thus far this year. Morgan Stanley analyst, Adam Jonas, has gone so far as to say that there could be some 32 million Tesla vehicles on the road globally by 2040.

At this point, it’s still somewhat rare for most people to see a Tesla on their daily drive. This is especially true if they live outside of areas like California or other CARB states, or major foreign markets like Norway.

If Jonas is even close to correct with his recent estimates, the company is soon to become a household name.


Image Credit: Morgan Stanley Research via Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg, Adam Jonas, head of automotive research at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients:

“With the launch of the Model 3, we forecast the Tesla car population to multiply three times by the end of 2019. It has been generations since the investment community witnessed such a high growth rate in the population of a single auto firm.”

Source: Bloomberg

Categories: Tesla

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37 Comments on "Morgan Stanley Predicts 10 Million Tesla Vehicles On The Road In 10 Years"

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More Gigafactories are just on the horizon.

Morgan Stanley probably owns lots of Tesla stocks.

They own a lot of stock and, with good reason…

But, this projection isn’t geometric, therefore, it’s conservative.

Only 260 model 3 this far…..

I am a Tesla fan, but that number seems excessively optimistic. Folks, scaling up any business is hard….and automotive is particularly difficult, given the need to scale up service and charging support. I wish it could be true!

GM puts that many cars on the road every year, so not that large of a number. So GM will probably put an additional 100M vehicles on the road in 10 years, but that isn’t news, it is daily business. But still, Tesla is valued higher…

Tesla seriously needs a new factory for current/future vehicle output in the U.S.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

This sounds like a stock pump. Are they large share holders?????

You really need to ask?

I’m sure Tesla will announce building a factory in China and possible one in Europe and a new one USA early next year so 10 million is definitely doable.
Tesla will also be the leader in storage batteries.
If tariffs are imposed on solar panels Teslas solar panels grab market share.

Agree — as soon as the Model 3 launch gets past the production hell phase — I think you will see the plants officially announced.

It really isn’t unusual to see a Tesla outside of the carb states (as the article suggests). I live in Georgia and see at least one almost daily. I travel extensively in Kentucky (coal country, not exactly an EV hotbed) and hardly a week goes by that I don’t see at least one S or X. As sales of the 3 begin to ramp, more and more people will become familiar with Tesla and EVs, which will lead to more people test driving one, and finally to more sales.

The era of dead dinosaur powered autos is about to begin a long, slow decline toward extinction.


I’m thinking a long slow decline of ICE vehicles is too conservative. More like another decade and they’re toast.

Unlikely. It’s one thing to sell a bunch of super high-end cars to people with more money than they know what to do with. It’s a completely different matter to sell a million cars a year, in an already saturated luxury market, to low end luxury buyers. Don’t even start with “but they have 600k orders right now!” Yes, and their preorders are not climbing by leaps and bounds anymore. Also, a lot of those buyers are going to wait because they stretched hard and really can only barely afford the $35k base model. Tesla may have saturated their own fanboy market. It’s likely that once all the orders are filled, they will have difficulty selling 100k Model 3s a year. Lets put that into perspective, Accords sell ~220k a year, BMW 3 Series sell ~60k a year. You really think they will sell anywhere near 500k a year? I don’t think so. The only vehicles that sell that many a year are the big three trucks. Tesla will need to have a car in every niche in order to even come close to producing an average of a million cars a year. Heck they haven’t even made a million… Read more »

@Brandler said: “…”Don’t even start with “but they have 600k orders right now! … It’s likely that once all the orders are filled, they will have difficulty selling 100k Model 3s a year.”

Or…here is what is much more likely:

For every 1 current paid Model 3 reservation holder (600k+) there are ~3 highly interested potential *qualified* consumers for Model 3 that have not yet placed a paid reservation …

Of which ~ 50% of those 1.8m will convert to a paid reservation within next 24 months as Model 3 goes into volume production.

Ergo an additional 900k paid reservations for Model 3 to follow the current 600k paid reservations.

Thus far the average net daily paid reservations up-tick supports this.

So … 600k + 900k = 1.5m

Those numbers don’t take into account the effect of the anticipated upcoming Model Y paid reservations holders which are likely to start sometime in late 2018. Model Y will likely cannibalize some Model 3 paid reservation holders (Model 3 paid reservations converting to Model Y) but the combined will result in pushing the above 1.5m number somewhere north of 2m.

Yup selling huge numbers of sedans in the us market is not a good long term plan. Tesla knows this and that’s why the Y or whatever they decide to call it is next up.
Add in a pickup, a new S, a more conventional X replacement SUV, a next gen roadster , then yeah huge sales numbers are possible

I’m with Bradler. I don’t see the 3 selling more their 600k I’m it’s entire life. Once people start configuring thier preorders most people will drop out when they see that they have to pay 600 a month for a car they will spend 5% of there day in. At least BMW 3 series BMW have incentives and take some hits for the brand for people can stay loyal and move up in thier brand

@Will said: “At least BMW 3 series BMW have incentives and take some hits for the brand for people can stay loyal and move up in thier brand.”

Will be interesting to see how that plays out for BMW considering that BMW 3 Series is currently the #1 car (by a wide margin) being replaced by Model 3 reservation holders.

Tell me who is a BMW losing. No one. We talking about 500k around the world reservation. Once configuration opens you will see those numbers dwindle because No one is paying 600 for a afforable car

The first thing to do, once you’ve dug yourself into a hole, is to stop digging.

Push who’s digging? Not me. 600 for a car is not afforable. You might think that’s afforable but 90% Americans will disagree with you

“It’s likely that once all the orders are filled, they will have difficulty selling 100k Model 3s a year”

Deja vu all over again!

Aside from this higher number, that is exactly what the Tesla bashers said about the Model S. How did that work out, again?
😀 😀 😀

Go Tesla!

Push, I’m still waiting for the S 100k sale a year like I’m waiting for the 1500 3s for September instead of the actual 230sh I will be still waiting because that month has came and went

Hey, good job of moving the goal posts there, Will. Nobody here is claiming the Model S would sell 100,000 per year.

Mr. Google suggests there were 11,170 pre-orders for the Model S. In 2016, worldwide Model S sales were ~50,931.

Your prediction that annual sales of the Model 3 will max out at less than the number of preorders… well, let’s just say that’s not the smart way to bet.

And your opinion “I don’t see the 3 selling more their 600k I’m it’s entire life” — presumably you meant “I don’t see the TM3 selling more than 600k in its entire life” — looks very much like deliberate Tesla bashing FUD. Unless Tesla drops the ball very badly, and so far the signs look pretty good that it won’t, it’s almost laughably ridiculous to suggest the lifetime sales will be that low.

Elsewhere in this discussion thread, CDAVIS estimated 1.5 million Model 3 + Model Y sales per year. That looks to me to be at least in the ballpark of the numbers we’ll see in 4 years or less.

We don’t need to be stock pumpers like Morgan Stanley to think it’s likely Tesla will succeed to at least that extent.

Lol. Fremont cannot produce more then 1 millions a year and especially for three models plus if they ever build another factory it will ta3ke 3 years after land acquisition and contruction to be fully operational but knowing tesla they can’t deliver. Lol

For one thing they will be on the road a lot longer than most cars are today, still far out projections are just that.

My own belief is that they will keep going from strength to strength and keeping taking market share.

I predict by 2040, cars will become sentient and eat their passengers.

Good luck finding me if I am wrong…

Oh how, how I wish that the optimism or pessimism of financial analysts’ forecasts did not depend on whether or not they were pumping or dumping a certain stock when they issued the forecast!

But I suppose that’s about as realistic as wishing that unicorns will build cars for us out of rainbows.

Trying to forecast 10 years into the future about what’s going to happen as a disruptive tech revolution progresses, especially one as far-reaching as the EV revolution, is pretty pointless. I certainly hope Tesla will grow at least that far and that fast. I can hope that this forecast winds up being too conservative! But trying to peer that far into Tesla Inc.’s future, anybody’s guess is as good as Morgan Stanley’s.

10 million cars?? Surely there’s a good CPO Model S/3/Y/Z for me somewhere at that point!!

What the haters and trolls don’t recognize/admit is that Tesla is gearing up to be the dominant maker of compelling BEVs in the mid-higher end markets for AT LEAST the next decade due to their vision and investments in battery production and charging networks with Model 3 and forthcoming Model Y and next-gen Roadster.

And that, is a big lead when EVs get past the knee of the S curve adoption.

One only has to look at what the Model S has done to MB S class sales both in the Us and Europe and how Tesla is quickly becoming a big luxury player in China and those are the three biggest markets for the mid-high end.

But, fools and haters are going to hate!

You said it Real, luxury, not afforable where you sell high quantities of cars with a small profit margin but where you can dominate the market like the model T 100 years ago

Maybe Morgan-Stanley executives have already invested and are pumping up the stock to help there own personal investment; all while the middle class shrinks.

@B-rich said: “Maybe Morgan-Stanley executives have already invested and are pumping up the stock to help there own personal investment; all while the …”

Morgan Stanley has been tied to TSLA for a long while including acting as a book-running manager (jointly with Goldman, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank ) when TSLA went public in Jun 2010 with TSLA then priced at $17.

Since that time, Morgan Stanley has published many TSLA related guidance reports including the controversial 2014 guidance report changing TSLA guidance to $320 from $153:

In theory there should be no conflict of interest associated with Morgan Stanley’s TSLA guidance reports but for sure it’s understandable why there may be appearance of conflict of interest. Ironically, within the institutional investment community one of the biggest criticisms placed on Morgan Stanley is that their TSLA guidance reports significantly undershot TSLA causing lost-opportunity-cost for those portfolio managers that exited TSLA over the last few years while TSLA keept going up way past guidance. The criticism is somewhat justified as Morgan Stanley has over the years consistently undershot TSLA guidance.

And selling high while they can. I feel sorry when the SEC start looking into MS for speculation on thier mutual fund that’s why they pumping Tes stocks

It is an aberration to play with people´s money like this.
So don´t trust Morgan Stanley do your homework before investing. Tesla is a high risk company which shares value are based on keeping the hype.