U.S. Will Get 2 Or 3 More Tesla Gigafactories, Says Musk

4 months ago by Mark Kane 45

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk was the keynote speaker at the National Governors Association 2017 Summer Meeting, which took place in front of 30+ governors.

NGA 2017 Summer Meeting — Introducing the New Chair’s Initiative “Ahead of the Curve”

Musk described the weight of various incentives that are most attractive to establish plants like the Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada.

At the same time Musk expressed the believe that “at least two or three” more Gigafactories are needed in the US.

As to where those Gigafactories will be built, Tesla plans to announce locations by the end of 2017.

Let the fight for new Tesla Gigafactory locations…begin!

We should clarify that Tesla counts its current Gigafactories as not only the battery plant in Nevada, but also its solar cell/modules production plant in New York. Neither are yet fully complete.

So, we can’t guarantee that the next 2-3 US Gigafactories are to be for electric vehicles, or even battery plants; but those that do end up involved in EV production, will be probably even larger than plant in Nevada, because Tesla plans to combine car assembly and battery production.

Separately, Tesla could (at some point in the future) build EV Gigafactories in Europe and China (Tesla is working with the Shanghai Municipal Government to explore that possibility today in China). Elon noted a “couple [Gigafactories] overseas”.

The reason behind the next new EV Gigafactory in US is that Tesla’s Fremont is in all liklihood unable to handle any more production beyond the anticipated full scale domestic demand for the Model S, Model X and Model 3. With several new vehicles expected in the coming years (Model Y, next generation Roadster, pickup truck, semi truck, etc), Tesla doesn’t have much choice in the matter if it looks to continue to expand.

Other topic of interest in the video: Elon Musk considers that non-autonomous cars in 20-30 years will be akin to horses today.

source: Electrek

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45 responses to "U.S. Will Get 2 Or 3 More Tesla Gigafactories, Says Musk"

  1. speculawyer says:

    He must be really confident that he can profitably build & sell that base Model 3 for for $35K.

    If so, Tesla should really be off to the races.

    1. FISHEV says:

      I think Musk is confident that the Model 3 is going to sell for around $60K and that Tesla will make money as people option up for range ($10K), AWD ($5K), Autopilot($5K), Autonomous ($3K), color, sub-zero pushing the $36.2K delivered Model 3 close to $60K.

      He’ll still get the volume 500K a year volume in US and another 500K abroad to keep moving forward.

      1. speculawyer says:

        Apparently you have not been keeping up with the news. They have said that they will be offering very few options for a while.

        1. Kir says:

          Offering few options is not the same as offering a base car. I believe the first cars will be premium versions with large battery sizes.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “I think Musk is confident that the Model 3 is going to sell for around $60K…”

        🙄 Another telegram from Planet FUDster.

        Elon has said that Tesla estimates the average selling price of the Model 3 at $42k. Certainly nobody outside Tesla has sufficient information to give a better estimate.

  2. M Hovis says:

    Just needs Texas to cave on dealerships in order to build a truck plant in their state. Either Michigan or Texas has to fold and the direct sales model fight is over. Texas may be an oil state but is huuuuge in renewables. Texas will cave before Michigan and I think Musk would rather build somewhere different from the norm as well.

    1. At the rate we are getting stories on the Fear of Disclosure happening in Michigan, it will be interesting to see whi caves first: Michigan Auto Dealers Association, or the Texas Auto Dealers Association?

      MADA OR TADA?

      Ether way, when one of them gets off their old boys club protectionist pedestal, others will start to weaken, too.

      As the first 100,000 USA Model 3 Owners start driving them in the states, and more and more folks discover Tesla, and find out about these restrictions on the selling, servicing, and test driving laws, the bigger fight these states will find themselves in!

      Flood gates start to leak on July 28th, 2017!

      As a pending Canadian buyer of a Model 3, and a current Texas Land Owner, I expect I will be adding my voice to the fight, as well.

      Any WWII or other War Veteran might also want to join this fight, as they fought for Freedom from Tryany, too.

    2. Josh Bryant says:

      San Antonio is my odds on favorite for the next GF. Whispers were it narrowly missed last time. Offered more $ then Nevada but lost on logistics (
      Distance from Fremont).

      Logistics won’t matter if batteries and vehicles are build in the same location. Factory would be for Y and Truck which fits the Texas market.

      Toyota has already built up the supplier base there from Tundra production.

      Of course would require a bill to lift the current local sales ban.

  3. Delta says:

    Elon is very scared of AI – he seems to know something and he can’t reveal it. I think he is almost begging the government to do something to control the AI race.

    Are we really in that much trouble with AI. He believes that we are in a virtual world already – so what would be the difference if an AI takes over a virtual world that was itself created by an AI… It’s just AI universes within AI universes all the way down.

    Wait a second – his name is eLON – he is a robot AI sent from the future to save us.

    How else to explain how he can do everything he is doing.

    That would explain everything…

    1. ?ELON:

      Electric Long-range Operating Nebula?

      Expansive Living Operations Now?

      Expensive Light Operated Newness?

      Electric Lovable Organic Nexus?

      Sorry, I am not Alien Enough to be more creative, today!
      ;÷{)

      1. cylindrical says:

        Enigmatic
        Lifeform
        Orchestrating (or Overseeing)
        Nexus

  4. I wonder how far out from now that Tesla Model 3 Owners will get offered a referral program to promote this car?

    If each reservation holder became a sold car, and each could get credits for referring 10, that would put Tesla at probably over 4 Million of them possible, right there! No doubt they would need another car factory or couple Gigafactories more to keep up, even at 10,000 a week production!

    If TM3 owners could unlock a free Roadster or Model Y with enough referral credits, it could lead to a frenzy of new reservations and orders!

    Offering them an invite to the Tesla Semi Delivery Party, an invite to Tour SpaceX, an invite to the Model Y Reveal and/or Roadster Reveal, would all be attractive referal prizes!

    Ofering them to have the first Supercharger V3.0 installed near them would also be an interesting offer!

    1. Cfttester says:

      Don’t stop there. What if these 4 millions will refer 10 each? It’s 40 million cars alone. I think Elon is substantially underestimating the demand for the batteries.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        And each of those 40 million refer another 10, to reach 400 million?

        Do you understand the reason why Ponzi schemes inevitably collapse? It’s simple math; at some point, the required size of participants in the next step of the pyramid scheme exceeds the total population.

        But hey, if you want to let your imagination roam free, imagine that Elon is successful at colonizing other worlds beyond his wildest dreams, we invent practical superluminal (faster than light) travel, and that we use cloning and forced growth tech to increase the population on other worlds at a speed unimaginable today, as humanity spreads out into the galaxy. And of course, Model 3’s will be sold on all those new worlds. Then you could continue that Ponzi scheme for several more steps in the pyramid! 😀

        1. Cfttester says:

          Sorry, I should add “sarcasm” tag to my comment 🙂

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “I wonder how far out from now that Tesla Model 3 Owners will get offered a referral program to promote this car?”

      Probably not for at least a couple of years. Tesla uses the referral programs to increase demand for their cars, and at this point the demand for the Model 3 vastly exceeds supply. Promotions such as the referral program would be worse than pointless at this time; they would waste of Tesla’s money as well as increase the number of frustrated would-be Model 3 buyers who will have to wait years to get one.

  5. Cfttester says:

    But didn’t Tesla said that the existing one will be able to produce enough batteries for 500000 cars alone by 2020?
    Why do we need 2-3 more? 😉

    1. Ambulator says:

      GM produced 9.8 million cars in 2015, and there are Semis and Power Packs to build, too. There’s a long ways to go.

      1. Cfttester says:

        So, we about to hear new plans to build at least 1-2 or more (if Tesla is able to reach the efficiency of Toyota) new NUMMI plants?
        After all, it seems that the battery production ramp-up should be easier to achieve than the car production. Simply, based on the number of moving parts…

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          It would have helped if the article had noted that Elon said future Gigafactories would combine an auto assembly plant with battery manufacturing.

  6. Tony says:

    Comparison of non-autonomous cars to horses is probably not the best one. I’m guessing you could stagger out of a bar, hopped on your horse and he would have taken you home as barely held on to consciousness.

  7. John says:

    Classic, the chair of the NGA is in bed with NV Energy’s Warren Buffett. Sandoval has destroyed solar in Nevada, talks out of both sides of his mouth.

    Welcome to hypocrisy…

  8. John Ray says:

    Pretty sure he knows his audience and is fishing for offers/incentives. He is probably also telegraphing the need for additional capital. I’m pretty sure Tesla doesn’t currently have the means to go any further than the Model 3 launch capital wise.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      I’m “pretty sure” that you, as a serial Tesla basher, know perfectly well that what you’re saying is completely untrue. As a short-selling investor, you surely are aware that Tesla extended its borrowing power at the end of last year (link below), with an ease which of course completely undercuts the Tesla bashing Big Lie drumbeat that Tesla is in financial difficulty and will soon collapse.

      Of course, y’all have been saying that literally for years, while Tesla keeps right on succeeding and rapidly growing. Oh, just how much money have you lost on trying to short Tesla stock, “John Ray”? Hmmmm? Well, Tesla appreciates your “donations.” 😀

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/tesla-adds-500-million-to-borrowing-capacity-amid-expansion

  9. Mister G says:

    FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA…gigafactory

    1. DJ says:

      who wants to build batteries in a plant that will soon be under water?? 🙂

      Seriously though. It could make sense to have another plant somewhere in the Midwest/the South close enough to a good port just for logistics sake.

      1. Mister G says:

        Shut your mouth, I own property in Florida and I’m looking for some suckers to buy it before global warming becomes obvious to general population.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          I don’t know why you would be worried. Just pick anyone who voted for our current president. They obviously have the ability to ignore reality (and real science) developed to a very high degree.

          1. Ziv says:

            Ocean levels have been rising for centuries if not millennia. Over the past 100 years they have been rising about 1 to 2 mm per year.
            There are reports that ocean levels have been rising at nearly 3 mm per year over the past 20 to 30 years, so global temps have had an noticeable effect. Barely.
            It looks like Florida is going to be safe for at least a couple centuries…
            But don’t let the facts get in the way of a good agit-prop campaign!

  10. Someone out there says:

    Man it’s hard work listening to Elon Musk! Eh.. ah… every other word

    1. Null says:

      Likely fatigue…

      I did the same in my younger days of IT.

  11. JeremyK says:

    I heard an interview on the local public radio station talking about a very large (secret) project in central lower MI. Locals think they’re going to propose a steel mill, but I think that’s ridiculous. Nobody is building steel mills in the US these days. The project is code named “TIM” and is described as being $4-$6B in scope.
    http://www.mlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/07/mid-michigan_town_wants_detail.html
    Dropping a GF in the middle of central lower MI would certainly be a strong move in convincing MI government to allow Tesla sales within the state, would also put them within easy reach of the many many automotive suppliers, fabricators, and a skilled workforce. Interesting.

    1. Mark C says:

      Not a chance I’d build in MI in the hopes they would let me sell my wares there if I did. It would be the ultimate insult to spend billions building a factory and them still not allow direct sales.

      Probably not even if they changed the rules now, unless they put together an incentives package that was at least as good as the best from another state.

      1. Dipster says:

        How about looking at the flipside. Michigan lawmakers looking for a Tesla GF repeal dealer requirements, offer great incentives and get told to piss off anyway. How would that play out at election time?

      2. JeremyK says:

        Looks like others might disagree with MI not being a desirable location.

        From a June 7th CleanTechnica article, discussing possible Model Y manufacturing locations.

        “Elon noted that the supply chains for Tesla’s current vehicles span the globe. Parts are sourced from numerous countries across the planet. This means that an economic shakeup or natural disaster on the other side of the planet can impact Fremont’s ability to produce cars and adds unnecessary instability to the company. To mitigate this, Tesla is intentionally planning Model Y with that in mind. It will seek to minimize the complexity and geographical distance over which the supply chain is stretched, which may result in the location of the Model Y factory being somewhat of a surprise. Given the high number of automotive suppliers in Michigan, that could be a logical choice — though, it would require Tesla to ship batteries or rolling battery chassis from the Gigafactory in Nevada to Michigan … or perhaps the new Model Y factory could land somewhere in the middle.”

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      There is no way in hell that Tesla is going to make any deal to put a large manufacturing center in Michigan, so long as the hard-right politicians in control of the State government are so virulently opposed to anything Tesla. They not only block Tesla from selling cars in the State, they even block Tesla from opening service centers there!

      http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/09/tesla-cant-service-cars-michigan/

      1. JeremyK says:

        Think of the leverage Tesla would have if their decision to build in MI was contingent on being able to sell their cars in the state.

        Consider of all the machine builders, fabricators, mechanics, research colleges and engineers within an hours drive of this facility.

        I’m not saying this will be a Tesla facility, but I’d like to point out some similarities:

        Land
        GF: 1000 acres (original), but expanded to include an additional 1864 acres of adjacent land for 3000 total.
        Project TIM: 850 acres

        Facilities
        GF: Planned floor space “could” exceed 10M sqft (up to 15M sqft counting multiple levels)
        Project TIM: up to 24M square feet

        Employees:
        GF; 800-1000 (as of Dec. 2016), up to 6500 employees (estimated/potential)
        Project TIM: 800 (initial/estimated)

        Estimated Cost:
        GF: $4B-$5B
        Project TIM: $4.5-$6B

        Employee Compensation:
        GF: $25+/hr
        Project TIM: $25-$30/hr

  12. JeremyK says:

    More on Project TIM
    Quotes from a Crains article:
    http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20170716/news/634016/what-project-tim

    “As of this time we cannot share details on the precise nature of Project Tim,” according to the document, which the city of Durand has been distributing to residents. “… It will be a high-tech industrial development unlike anything that you have probably ever seen before.”

    “A major component of this project is clean energy and the community can be assured that the company is not only willing to make sure it has a positive environmental impact but due to the nature of our funding source, this will be a key requirement,” the document says. “Thus, any project that has an adverse impact on the community will not go forward until those issues are addressed.”

    “At the time it is complete, they’re looking at 800 full-time jobs — jobs between $25 and $30 an hour jobs,” DeClerg said. “One of the reasons for the area … was it’s between Flint and Lansing, large areas, tracts of land available, highway access, railroad access, proximity to high voltage powerlines and another one is access to a skilled workforce.

    1. Josh Bryant says:

      Interesting…

      Everything sounds like a Tessa factory except for 800 full time employees. $6-$8 billion and 800 employees doesn’t seem to match.

      1. JeremyK says:

        As of Dec. 2016, Tesla had between 800-1000 employees.

        See my post above outlining some other similarities.

        Also (read above), I found a CleanTechnica article discussing possible Model Y manufacturing locations.
        According to Musk, Model Y will need to be build in a new, highly automated, manufacturing facility.

        Anyway….a project/investment of this magnitude is EXTREMELY uncommon for this area of MI. There are nothing but corn fields in this part of the state.

  13. Ocean Railroader says:

    I hope they put the next Tesla giga factory in Richmond Vriginia. In that we have a lot of people who would need jobs and the factory would be interesting.

  14. ModernMarvelFan says:

    Let us finish the first one before starting another 2-3 Gigafactory…

  15. Someone out there says:

    Elon should make a statement that all states that refuses to allow Tesla to sell cars are automatically disqualified from getting a gigafactory. That is 5000+ jobs they won’t get.

    1. Nicole says:

      I understand your logic but it’s the corrupted law makers and lobbyists who don’t want Tesla. Michigan has some of the most highly trained manufacturing workers in the country. It’s too bad the state government can’t see that change is good; green energy is good.

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