Tesla Production And Deliveries Graphed Through Q2 2018

JUL 3 2018 BY MARK KANE 65

Tesla just released its production can sales numbers for the second quarter of this year and the numbers show tremendous progress.

Even more so when laid out in graph form.

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – through June 2018

As we know, the production target of 5,000 Tesla Model 3 a week was achieved and it’s now time for a short celebration before all hands will go on-board again to further improve output.

Deliveries are now at an all-time quarterly high of 40,740 (±0.5%) (up 85% year-over-year) and >70,000 YTD:

  • Model 3: 18,440
  • Model X: 11,370
  • Model S: 10,930

You can just see how big of a jump this was in this graphic:

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – through June 2018

Production hit an all-time high too of 53,339 (up 107.5% year-over-year) for the quarter and 87,833 YTD:

  • Model S + Model X: 24,761
  • Model 3: 28,578

Production increased quicker than sales, which of course means that the next quarter will likely be even stronger.

Because there was 11,166 Model 3 in transit to customers at the end of Q2, the Model 3 could become the #1 best-selling electric car in the world as early as July of this year. If not in July, then August seems a safe bet.

Tesla Model S/X/3 Production (quarterly) – through June 2018

In just a few short hours, we’ll report on U.S. sales for the month of June. It’s a hot one and we’re not referring to the temps. Stick with us throughout the day today and into tomorrow as the scorching numbers begin to pile in.

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65 Comments on "Tesla Production And Deliveries Graphed Through Q2 2018"

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On NO. Eye’s Burning. GEOMETRIC GROWTH. Shorts On FIRE.

TSLA has actually made absolutely no sense over the past 30 hours. At close on Friday, they were at $342. Premarket Monday they hit $360. Now they’re at $326.

I still expect they’ll crack $500 by the time Q3 financials come out, but that’s still 4 months away.

Strange right?

Buy the rumor, sell the news. Perhaps the oldest bromide on Wall Street.

Not really strange. People investing probably already knew. Otherwise, they wouldn’t invest in such volatile stock.

True true

Yep, not surprising at all. People invest on either:
1) speculation
2) detailed analysis of financials where discounted future cash flows are a significant factor
In the case of Tesla (and many young companies), there’s a lot of guessing in both cases.
I’ve worked in high tech for several decades – get ready for positive financial reports ==> stock going down because investors’ expectations (i.e. speculation) were too high.

The selloff of Tesla stock yesterday and today is not individual investors, it is institutional investors, look at the volume yesterday, and in the first hour this morning… This is institutional… they were not impressed with the deliveries, and all the spin in the press release.

Green, just so you know, the institutional and algo trades happen at EOD. That’s when the trading algos need rebalancing. Pros trade the close traders trade the open. I see you are working hard on your spin. TSLA is a trading stock now and it will pinball between 300 and 400 on any news so trying to make sense of anything is futile.

Wrong… But I bet Doug Feld dumped his last 20K shares… He had been selling on peaks for a while I noticed in the SEC filings.

The pattern you have identified is called “profit taking”. As TSLA approached $360/share, many shareholders took the opportunity to bank their profits on shares they have been accumulating over years. They are now quietly buying back in at today’s lower prices.

This has nothing to do with institutional long-term investment strategies changing. They aren’t as short-sighted as you. It is purely a market volatility play.

Wrong… Profit taking does not dump 5M shares in the first 30 minutes of trading… How many Tesla shares are controlled by individuals? 20M total? I am guessing, so that means 25% sold at low prices this AM? I do not think so…. Profit taking happened late last week, shorts increased at the same time… what is happing since yesterday is a more of a dump… The data Tesla released is disappointing. Wall Street caught wind there was another factory shutdown that was not publicly scheduled. Sunday and Monday this week, no production…

It is the 4th of July. What you are going to whine about next? Christmas?

LOL! A serial Tesla basher like David Green arguing with Nix.

What’s that line from “Man of Lamancha”?

“Whether the stone hits the pitcher, or the pitcher hits the stone, it’s going to be bad for the pitcher.” — Sancho Panza

Hey, David Green, I thought you claimed you were not an investor in TSLA, despite being a serial anti-Tesla FUDster?

As they say: If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s a duck. You sure are quacking like a TSLA short-seller!

Yeah, you should see his shorter trolling posts on Electrek.

LMAO, he even pulled up satellite photos of the aftermath small fire in the cardboard recycling station.

David “Green” proves by his constant bringing up financial FUD and dumpster-diving that he is a HARDCORE serial anti-Tesla troll and FUDster!

I’m an investor and bought two contracts of puts when Tesla was at $345,so far so good,I want them to produce lots of BEV,as they are good for the environment,and our trade balance,I just want the stock to trade lower.
Who would use a term like “factory gated”? I see 3rd quarter production of the 3 at 3K a week, they can run the rest of the year selling $50K 3’s,then they’ll have to go overseas where slightly less demand with SP of EU 55K?

Another Euro point of view

You are a courageous man :-). I wouldn’t touch this stock with a 500 foot pole, either long or short.

Indeed, would only make sense if they were at $3.26

$322 now… Makes total sense, Deliveries of Model 3 were a huge miss at 18K, Wall Street expected 22-28K Model S is down 12% 1H2017 to 1H2018 and Doug Field quit…. all bad news… Also Fremont was closed Sunday and Monday, making it very obvious that 5K weekly rate is not sustainable. It was a massive push with tons of overtime, and double shifts. then close the factory for 2 days to let everyone recover (I see that as 5K Model 3’s in 9 days) Nobody is buying Elon’s burst build crap anymore.. Wall Street wants to see a car every 53 seconds in a sustainable manner (like Ford).

If you look deeper into the numbers for Q2 2018 S and X production was also 1 week rate lower then Q2 2017, hmmm sounds like the S and X team were helping in the tent? Again showing the rate is not sustainable.

You think Wall Street doesn’t understand the hold up in deliveries vs. the Tax Credit. You think they’re simple Fools?

The cars are built, doesn’t matter if there’s a burst to finish higher at the end, to make up for maintenance down time. Again, are Wall Street analyst’s stupid fools?

Wall Street didn’t hear the new target of 6000?

Is Wall Street this incompetent?
Tells you a lot.

Wall street is absolutely this incompetent.

No, but the stock market is actually this volatile, especially with a stock as unstable as Tesla’s.

Wall Street wants to see a car every 53 seconds in a sustainable manner (like Ford). This is the bottom line…

To Tesla’s credit, they are delivering vehicles to Norway in a steadier more sustainable fashion,but the core values at Tesla are that of the end of the month sales at weird Al’s flailing inflatable tube man store and emporium, come on down NOW!!

There was no hold up in deliveries, 11K Model 3 in transit is about the final 3 weeks Q2 production which is typically what Tesla has in transit

When you burst build it stresses the factory (think of nitrous oxide on an engine), the work force, and the supply chain, when you look at the drone video from yesterday it is obvious there was chaos all over that Fremont property.

Wall Street does not care about 6K, because 5K was obviously a farce… Wall Street want to see steady and smooth profitable production, just like all the other automakers at their factories.

I think Wall Street is pretty smart, Tesla’s release data was weaker then expected, and they reacted.

Regurgitating the same FUD in multiple posts in the same thread is only going to annoy people, David. Give your short-seller whining a rest, already.

Tesla made it clear in advance that Model S+X production won’t surpass 25,000 per quarter on average in 2018; so no surprise there at all.

Yup, Tesla announced Dec. that they were intentionally slowing Model S/X production. Now Q2 S/X numbers match last year’s 2017 numbers. Both were 22K, with S/X numbers actually up from the intentional Q1 slowdown. the news in the Q2 numbers is that Tesla is ending their intentional, announced S/X slowdown and are back to 2017 production levels.

On top of that, S/X sales (like all EV sales from all car makers) are seasonal, with Q3/Q4 traditionally being the biggest quarters. With the intentional S/X production slowdown ending, and the seasonal upswing still ahead, it is entirely possible that Tesla will end up closer to an average of 25K S/X units per quarter once all the numbers are added up.

Clearly that will include losing some Model S sales to Model 3 LR Dual Motor Performance sales, as some customers realize they can get more performance for the same price from the Model 3 than a moderately equipped Model S for the same price. But that’s fine, Tesla still keeps the sale.

I’m not sure the slight fluctuations between quarters matter all that much. Tesla said that they are planning to make 100,000 S+X over the entire year; so something around 25,000 for each quarter.

There was a mention somewhere that they can’t make more, since Panasonic can’t supply enough 18650 cells for more than 100,000 vehicles… Not sure how reliable that information is, though. If it’s true, and Panasonic isn’t ramping up production to meet the demand, that’s a pretty strong hint though that Tesla actually intends to switch S+X to 21700 cells as well next year 🙂

Panasonic will make only enough for 100K S and X Tesla will not invest more because of lack of demand, they can not shift to the 1870 as the contracts are take or pay like as a natural gas contract, every lost S and X that is profitable for a 3 sales that is not is more hurt for a company with a multi billion dollar negative working capital account.

I find it amusing how, after all the whining about production, now that production for the quarter surpassed most expectations, the naysayers switched to “oh, but deliveries!” 🙂

Production was guided by Tesla at 40K for Model 3, 2500 ramping to 5000 per week minus 10 days of scheduled shutdown is over 40K, Tesla Badly missed with only 28K produced, and admitted they had only built 23K through week 12 of the Qtr. The last week burst raised the average, but then the factory shut down, which shows the rate was completely unsustainable. Anyone that is in management of any kind can clearly see the writing on the wall..

Yup. The whiners don’t care about consistency, or facts, or logic, or reason in their FUD. They just have this compulsive need to find something to whine about, even if it’s the exact opposite of what they were whining about 5 minutes earlier.

Tesla had a large miss in production.

LOL at whining about factory downtime for the 4th of July holidays!! You burnt yourself right there.

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi was also downbeat on the report, and said the key issue for the Model 3 is not production but profitability. Tesla said it still expects to be profitable and cash flow positive in the third and fourth quarters, but “we believe that even if Tesla does hit these targets, it will likely be due to one-time austerity (working capital, opex) and/or product mix (4WD and performance version) factors … and will not resolve the fundamental controversy of long-term Model 3 profitability.”

That sounds like shifting the goalposts, though. Nothing in the numbers reported by Tesla suggests outlook for profitability has become worse than before; they didn’t need to wait for the quarterly numbers to be published to make this point…

You better hope they keep losing money, you want them to post profit of a dollar and be valued at 10X for a share price of $10?

I’m not a stockholder. I don’t care how they are valued, as long as they keep advancing the transition to sustainable transportation 🙂

I’ll post the same thing I post when the share price jumps quickly upwards:

Volatile stock is volatile.

The two things you can be sure about a historically volatile stock is:
1) It will go up
2) It will go down

How much of each and when each happen is the question.

Wouldn’t they split at some point? Not sure they reach 500 before that happens.

It’s almost like TSLA is a very volatile stock, and the market doesn’t know what to expect from Tesla’s quarterly report. 😉

Another Euro point of view

On the contrary I think the markets have a good rough idea of what to expect from Q2 report (at least a half billion $ loss), what they don’t know is if they need to believe Musk regarding future profits. He seems not to be the guy that is shy of pulling some one time tricks and that makes the markets really nervous. Elon is playing big with that short squeeze thing he announced, if that does not take place in the next 2 weeks and that on the contrary the stock remains around $300 he will really look like a goat, and not only from the naysayers but also people from his camp will say that he needs to grow a thicker skin and stay away from his twitter account.

Serious investors probably don’t care about “one time tricks”, as they understand that the overall trend is positive, which is what really matters. It’s speculators that tend to be twitchy about such details…

Wow, that seems poignant and quite right now

I’d like to see X and S sales graphed only for California. That will tell us how EV sales are likely to go over time, as it is Tesla’s most mature market.

So far I’ve only been able to find this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-06/tesla-registrations-plunge-24-california-its-largest-market (“Tesla Registrations Plunge 24% In California, Its Largest Market”) but it’s a year old. I’m sure InsideEVs has far better data.

If California can’t increase its EV penetration, no state can.

Do you live in California? You can’t throw a paper cup from a national coffee shop without hitting a Tesla. Toyota Prius, meanwhile, is lagging. Here’s a funny story about the Prius in California:


No, he lives under a rock.

Actually, he live under the TROLL’s bridge!

Eighteen Electric’s hunt for year old data from “Zerohedge” known shorter haven just goes to show how desperate he is to cherry pick ANY data he can find anywhere for the slightest corner case where there is even a momentary volatility in sales.

Meanwhile he remains intentionally blind to the very clear and obvious massive upward trend in sales in the graph on this very page!! So funny!! LOL

Tesla now down to it’s 200 day moving average of 322.
A Good Day to Buy, with dollar cost averaging…

Yes, sellers who jumped on the opportunity to quickly bank profits when TSLA approached $360, will be quietly dollar cost averaging back in through this dip and ride it back up again. Classic play on market volatility on a known volatile stock.

Buy low, sell high.
That is the golden rule for investors. It is also what shorts do. The recent high was a sell signal for shorts, and the market reacted.
Large parts of the market don’t react to the news anymore, only playing the volatility.

There was NO reaction to the recent news about SDG&E building a 700-1,000MWh battery plant.
As if nobody realizes what the meaning of this is. It is really weird, but the financial fundamentals of Tesla are getting better.
Patience rules.

You live in an alternate world. Tesla lost money on the South Australia project, and if they get the bid on this CA project the prices will be so low Tesla will most likely lose money on this one too. Who cares how much work you do or cars you build when you lose money

If you say so, then we know it’s not true. You’re very reliable that way! 😀

Tesla has never broken out their financials on the South Australia project. Nice try, but we caught ya.

Even with such a project in the pipeline, their storage business is still tiny compared to their car business…

I gotsta know…did they hit 200k before July 1 or not….

We will report on the details surrounding that in the coming days. Still some loose ends and discrepancies to iron out.

One thing that remains unclear is whether Tesla passed a different kind of milestone at the end of this past quarter. The company has been approaching 200,000 cars sold in the US, and when it reaches that mark, an 18-month gradual phaseout of the $7,500 federal tax credit begins. Passing 200,000 cars sold in the US in the third quarter, as opposed to the second quarter, would mean the full tax credit would remain available to customers for an extra three months.

When asked if Tesla surpassed that mark or not, a spokesperson for Tesla declined to comment.

As has been pointed out, it’s up to the IRS to decide that and to announce it, not up to Tesla. Tesla just follows the IRS’s rules.

I like the first chart in this article (quarterly deliveries, one color for each year).

But that chart is a total of Model S, Model X, and Model 3.

I would like to see such a chart with data regarding ONLY from the Model S.

Would that be possible?

Trump’s trade war will affect everybody, even Tesla.