Tesla Expected To Ship 3,000 Model 3 To Europe Weekly By February

Tesla Model 3 in Europe

DEC 12 2018 BY MARK KANE 58

3,000 per week is more than 12,000 per month

According to the Belgian news agency Focus-WTV (via Teslarati), Tesla intends to ship to Europe about 3,000 Tesla Model 3 weekly, beginning on February!

That’s a lot of cars – about 12,000 per month, which over the longer-term would place the Model 3 at #1 among all plug-ins in Europe, as the Nissan LEAF this year probably will fail to achieve an average of 4,000/month.

Transport of the Model 3 by the sea takes about 15 days (through the Panama Canal). Cars are expected to arrive in the Zeebrugge docks in Belgium.

Assuming that production of Model 3 will be:

  • 7,000 per week: 4,000 (≈16,000 per month) will be available for U.S., Canada and China
  • 10,000 per week: 7,000 (≈28,000 per month) will be available for U.S., Canada and China

Bonus: ordering Tesla Model 3 in Europe

Source: Focus-WTV via Teslarati

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58 Comments on "Tesla Expected To Ship 3,000 Model 3 To Europe Weekly By February"

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Does this imply falling demand in North America or higher production output?

My guess is still trying to maximize cars with the largest markup first.

Or racing to get some sales in before VW, Audi and BMW come up with some serious competition in the 45-55k price range? Competition for Model S and Model X from big manufacturers already impacts their market share in Europe. Sales for both luxury models stagnated in a fast growing market and they’re going down now, with Audi and Jaguar providing excellent alternatives.
We love our small city cars in Europe and nobody’s going to pay 45k for a Model 3 knowing a VW ID is just around the corner for 35k.

Both, I assume. Higher output as planned in the production rampup. And some market saturation in the US, especially in California, at least for the higher priced variants (not the base version).

Yup, some of both. Altho overall demand in N. America hasn’t been satisfied; just demand for the higher trim levels available without a lease. Tesla can increase demand at any time by pulling one of the demand “levers” that it has chosen not to pull… yet.

A fact that escapes the serial anti-Tesla shills, shorters, and haters.

Tesla has lots of demand levers it can still pull like leases,new markets, non-PUP and of course the SR when they get there.

So true Real , can’t believe I agree with you

How about lease deals on the LR AWD P and MR AWD? 5k down very favorable terms for the company

In my opinion, the demand for the 45k+ model in the US has slowly stabilized and has little potential for further increases, especially after the decrease in the subsidies. Therefore, it is an extremely clever move from Tesla to start the deliveries to Europe now and therefore be able to increase production so far, that the SR Model can bei delievered in a few months in the US and thus generate new demand there.

Yep, I just convinced a couple of people that EV’s are vastly superior with a test drive. Within a year or so, I predict Model 3 will be selling 30K+ a month in the US… as long as Tesla can make them at that volume and satisify Europe and Asia.

We’ll see N. American demand shoot up again when Tesla starts offering leases on the TM3, even if they don’t offer any lower trim levels.

I think we’ve already seen evidence of tapering demand in the US for current spec models – if there wasn’t, Tesla would not have needed to send multiple “order now for year end delivery” messages (i.e. they would have all been booked up).
We’ll probably see another bump in the US once the short range version comes out.
Demand globally will be high enough to gobble up they can all supply for at least another year. Maybe then they’ll change the mix in favour of the Y’s ramp.

F150 Brian, let me get this straight — any time a car maker does anything to encourage customers to buy their products, it is because demand is tapering?

Then why do we see wall-to-wall Ford F-150 advertisements, and discount offers, and “buy now before the offer ends” offers, limited time lease offers, etc? Isn’t it supposed to be the best selling vehicle? Why is there a double-standard that if Tesla dares to do anything to promote sales that suddenly it is because of demand?

The reality is that you guys keep DREAMING that demand for Tesla vehicles is dropping, and you’ve been repeating the same meme since 2012. Then year-over-year sales numbers come in and Tesla just keeps massively increasing sales!!! How many years do you guys have to get it wrong on Tesla demand before you realize that Tesla just keeps cutting into more and more ICE car sales?

Just goes to show that the dumber the meme, the harder it is to kill.

I think all this is a bit of semantics. Yes – demand for higher spec units may be maxed – at full price, will no inventory and no lease with zero traditional advertising.
But advertising in any form is a way of maximizing sales. Tesla is trying to maximize sales with a quick line on a webpage. Nothing wrong with that.
Listen – even F150 Brian is acknowledging that global demand is high enough to eat all of supply for “at least another year” – that doesn’t make him an anti-Tesla troll.
Maximizing US deliveries in 2018 makes sense. Just like sending much of early 2019 to Europe. And increasing production also makes sense.
There is a demand limitation. It is not infinite today. It will continue to grow but many new car buyers want SUVs anyway. Local inventory of an SR with a lease would have demand probably close to 500k a year in the US. They can’t produce that many today and they make more money sending Ps to Europe. All very rational. As does making sure they sell all they can in December in the US.

Here here

“Model Y ramp” has activated my Pavlovian Tesla drool syndrome.


Another Euro point of view

Maybe they deem that it is better to starve a bit the US and Canadian market as not to loose the Euro reservation holders to competition. Europe is a much more competitive market for them with Tesla barely making it in the top ten in many European countries as far as pluggin sales are concerned. This as opposed to the US where they won the EV market anyway.

Here below a ranking as at October 2018 for total pluggin sales figures for first 10 month of 2017, appearance of Tesla first Model (S or X):

France: 15th
Germany: 20th
Sweden: 11th
Netherlands: 1st
Norway; 4th
Belgium: 12th
Denmark: no comparison available/very few sales
Spain: 15th
Italy: 9th
Ireland: 7th.

If it was not for the hugely incentivized Dutch and Norwegian markets the best sold Tesla in Europe would have sales figures more or less comparable to the very expensive (+/- EUR 100k) Porsche Panamera PHEV so it is now or never for Tesla to grab a larger part of that market.

So you prove that Tesla model S & X demand is quite Low in Europe. So after the initial fanboys purchase Model 3, there is No Reason to believe any different for a 2nd class product, ala iPhone XR. the demand will Dry up just like it has already done in USA. So Flatline plateau level. there is no chance of any Exponential curve, as Smoked up by Elon in arrogance. China sales will be even quicker to die down given nastiness of Canada and USA.

Another Euro point of view

I think Model 3 will do very well in the Netherlands and Norway, as now with Model S & X.

I expect Tesla sales in the Netherlands to collapse because of new tax rules for 2019.

Another Euro point of view

I don’t think it will, I understood the new tax rule is till very favorable for the price tranche up to EUR 50k so if you by a Model 3 of say EUR 60k it would only be the EUR 10k tranche on top of the EUR 50k which would be fully taxed, so still a very good deal as compared to an ICE car of same price. This is the way I understood it at least.

Your understanding is correct. It’s just that the Dutch seem to care more about their wallet than brand status or loyalty. They went from buying Opel Amperas to Mitsubishi Outlanders to Teslas. So if Hyundai is willing and able to ship enough Konas, that’ll become the biggest seller. Hyundai/KIA recently stated they probably won’t break even selling EVs till 2021, so availability might be a problem.

“…the demand will Dry up just like it has already done in USA.”

The sheep in the anti-Tesla “Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!” pack have been bleating that since 2008. Do you honestly think you’re fooling anyone?

Demand temporarily plateauing ≠ demand “drying up”.

Lack of Logic, aka Mark Spiegel the spectacularly unsuccessful Tesla shorter, doubles down once again on his wet-dream stupidity.

Meanwhile, the Model S continues to outsell the S Class, 7 series and A8 both in the US AND IN EUROPE!

The exponential demand comes at the expense of ICE sales. Remember that legacy companies spend about 2000$ in marketing to sell every full-sized pickup and SUV. Jaguar spend 3000$ in marketing for every ICE car.

The auto industry in the US has spent billions, and has been very good at convincing ordinary people that they need/want a big-ass pickup, but those days are coming to an end. When VW/Audi/MB start advertising how cool their new EVs are, there will be a mass-market counter argument to the practicality/coolness of a landwhale ICE.

At the upper end of the market will be Tesla. They can float above the fray as long as they continue to innovate. As the recent entries into the market have demonstrated, the legacy companies aren’t anywhere near being competitive with EV technology, but their need to be successful will ensure that consumers will receive enough marketing attention to finally understand that ICE cars and trucks are turds. RIP the spark plug.

Can’t wait for that

All you have managed to show is that less expensive cars tend to outsell more expensive cars. Thank you Captain Obvious.

A bit of both?

Neither. It implies that they are a global car company, that is opening sales of a new model into their traditional markets they have been selling in and have always been expected to sell in.

It is no different than BMW or Audi introducing a new model in Germany first, and then later offering it for sale in the US market. This is normal and standard in the automotive world. People only become perplexed about this normal and standard reality when the story is about Tesla…..

We should make a GoFund me account for a National Tesla Ad campaign for the upcoming year. $ Anywone that contributed gets $1k off their next EV from Tesla

Neither. It is according to plan.

Demand in the US may drop a bit when various incentives expire after the new year (including the $7,500 federal tax credit). So, it makes sense to ramp up deliveries to places that still have strong incentives, while continuing to work on ways to lower production costs in the US and China.

Yes, the expiration of the Federal tax credit is going to have more impact on TM3 demand than it will on MS or MX demand, because of the lower price segment and customers more sensitive to a price difference of a few/ several thousand dollars.

It’s no coincidence that Tesla has chosen to start European sales of the Model 3 at about the same time as the expiration (or reduction) of the U.S. Federal tax credit.

Wow 3,000 a week to Europe 12,000 a month. Production of 7,000 a week. Tesla is moving on all cylinders without using cylinders. Fourth quarter numbers will be great and 2019 will be like a rocket from SpaceX.
Shorter’s wearing there short shorts will definitely be needing there Depends.


So, there.

and “shorters”, not “shorter’s”. #GrammarNazi

I need not only the spell check but a grammar check. Didn’t do well in 4th grade with diagramming sentences. I’ll try to do better. lol

Next summer is the time to wear short shorts 🙂

Cars like Zoe or Leaf, more popular and affordable, sold 4000 units in october. I can’t see how Tesla is going to sell 12.000 Model 3. But by other hand, I expect the car will be a success and give a punch to european makers, pushing them to wake up at last.

And please don’t be cruel for my english, I’m trying to improve it. 😉

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Firstly, there’s a backlog of demand, which means they can sell the higher spec versions for a while.
Second, price is relative. The Zoe and Leaf are neither premium nor performance vehicles.

PS I won’t be cruel _about_ your English. 😉
For is _normally_ about purpose or intended recipient.
For example, I wrote this bit about the use of “for” for you, for your benefit.

Ship the Model 3 to where the incentives are which often correlates with demand.

So, about how many units of the Tesla Model 3 will be delivered to customers in the US in 2019?

More than 2018.

Might not be that much more. If they can sell out overseas with higher cost models, we might not see that many sales in the US. They have to be close to what max production is today without more factories. They should sell the highest cost product they can – that might be in Europe.
I would say 300k is a reasonable production and a 50/50 US/elsewhere split is about right. That puts 150k in the US which is right about 2018 sales (guessing 130k?)

Norway could take 500/week in addition to the 3000/week in Zeebrugge, leaving 3500/week for Asia/Pacific and North America. That’s after they hit 7000/week, which probably won’t happen for a few more months.

I figure US Model 3 deliveries will be less than 5000 in January.

As a rule, Jan-Feb auto sales are the lowest of the year, even for auto makers which are not ramping up year-on-year production.

You can figure that, but I suspect that Tesla will continue to have demand of 20+k / month in America. So far, with S and X, demand goes up and up. It has not fallen. Tesla is addressing what legacy car makers are missing. A massive demand for decent low cost EVs.

Not sure “low cost” is accurate. Looking at S&X demand curves should not relate well to a car that have huge pentup demand. Also the tax credit is a thing…..

I was in Europe a few weeks ago and stopped by 2 different Tesla stores — one in Austria and the other in Germany. The people there are so excited about the Model 3 finally coming……they say they have so many customers asking about it. They were so pleased to just to get to speak to someone who already owned one!

169,000 plugin vehicles were sold last month in China.
Time for Tesla to ship it to that country as soon as possible.

They are building a factory specifically to address the China/Pacific Rim market. Until then only a token amount of Model 3’s will reach China due to the tariffs.

China’s factory is for china only. Zero exports from there

GF3 will eventually supply most of APAC.

Define token amount. 10/week? 100? 1000?

I could see 1000/week by mid-2019.

When Tesla sells a lot of model 3 in Europe, it will be able to afford to make $35000 Tesla for the USA. 3rd quarter is my prediction.

I wonder if Tesla has started work on another line in CA, or if Tesla is learning to keep quiet and has a factory started elsewhere.

And what is battery production? The gigafactory is not fully on-line yet right?
The nice thing about model 3 sales is the demonstration of demand. I don’t think anyone reasonable now doubts that sales of combined 1,000,000 annually would be hard with the Model Y (and 3) and the pricing that comes with the economy of scale.
Tesla has over 150% growth from 2017 to 2018. That would be seen as accelerating growth to nearly anyone.