The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog, used as a proxy to better understand the relation between supply and demand, very slightly improved month-over-month at the end of July.
According to Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike / Twitter), an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of July 31, 2023, was roughly 54,000 units. That's some 4,000 more than at the end of June. However, it's slightly less than in mid-July (60,000), which indicate that the number is bouncing up and down.
The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.
The volume corresponds to about 18 days of manufacturing capacity, which appears to be a stable level since about two months or so. At the same time, 17-18 days is the shortest average wait time for Tesla so far.
Let's recall that Tesla applied two significant price reductions, one in January and one in April, accompanied with multiple smaller price tweaks up or down along the way in 2023. There were also various other promotions (free Supercharging package, rebates on existing inventory cars) and reintroduced eligibility for full federal tax credit (Model 3/Model Y) in the United States.
The relatively low estimated order backlog indicates that the above factors were necessary to attract more customers, as the production is consistently increasing to new record levels.
This might remain stable for now because Tesla announced plant upgrades (scheduled for the third quarter), which are expected to affect production. On the demand side, there is a potentially significant boost, related to the anticipated upcoming new "refreshed Model 3" offer.
For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):
- July 31, 2023: 54,000 (18 days)
- July 16, 2023: 60,000 (18 days)
- June 30, 2023: 49,000 (17 days)
- June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
- May 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
- May 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
- April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
- April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
- March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
- March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
- February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: around 470,000
- January-February, 2022: less than 400,000
In terms of particular markets, the balance between supply and demand remains marked "red" (considered too low) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).
The shortest wait time for new cars is in the US and Canada - just 11 days. It means that in those two markets, there might be high price pressure.
On the other hand, in Europe, the estimated order backlog and average wait times increased noticeably, suggesting improved demand.
In China, things are rather stable, although it's difficult to judge because of a very big export share. On top of that, the recent price reductions in August indicate that the local market is very competitive.
Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):
- United States: 7,783 (11 days) - decreased by 5 days
- Canada: 373 (11 days) - decreased by 5 days
- Europe: 21,202 (31 days) - increased by 10 day
- China: 14,057 (15 days) - stable
- other: 10,094 (32 days) - decreased by 6 days
- Total: 53,509 (18 days) - stable