Tesla Model 3 Production May Now Exceed 140,000

DEC 12 2018 BY MARK KANE 33

Tesla Model 3 Tracker still doesn’t show signs of >5,000 a week, but we know it’s sometimes faulty.

According to Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 Tracker, cumulative production of the Tesla Model 3 stands now (as of December 12, 2018) at 142,078.

The number consists of officially announced production results in previous quarters and estimated production rates in the current quarter, which translates into the uncertainty of up to a few thousand.

The weekly production output based on the available unofficial data is now just 4,351 per week, but again, we don’t know if that’s exactly accurate either. There is a big chance that production is actually above 5,000.

Compared to 186,148 registered VIN numbers, around 44,070 VIN numbers (9 weeks of 5,000/week worth of production) are ready for use.

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered
  • 2018’Q4 – already 47,810 produced (estimated)

Source: Tesla Model 3 Tracker

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33 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production May Now Exceed 140,000"

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I’d say a bit over 60000 produced in Q4

If Tesla can’t crack 5k produced a week then it’s never going to clear it’s obligations and bring down the huge debt. Higher interests rates in the future could really mess with its goals.

What I can’t figure is the intent to open ordering in Europe if there’s 100s of thousands of reservations in N America.

North American reservation holders want 35-40k versions. Tesla is coaxing as many of those people as possible to pull the trigger on the MR, which doesn’t cost much more than SR after you factor in the declining tax credit.

Why wouldn’t they open ordering to Europe? Roughly half of Tesla sales have traditionally come from non-US markets. They are a global automotive company, so of course they are going to sell into other markets outside the US. That is the definition of being a global automotive company.

2 streams, 3 streams and more are required to represent the company in overseas markets. Better to have placeholders and excitement in the lands of your competitors than to focus only on fulfillment of orders in N. America only.

Truly Tesla cannot stretch themselves too thin, but they have to stretch. Models S and X sell only to the high end of those markets. The promise of an available model at a lower price can stave off foreign car buyers only so long before they go buy something else. Having 3s on European and Asian roads is ever so important.

Once sales/service centers are established in EU, it becomes easy to take over a plant and then make M3 AND MY.

At the end of Q3 the big delivery push involved everything from volunteers to tagging lots full of cars and come pick one. Certainly that hasn’t been completely figured out and there’s still some delivery constraints. We heard they were going to use more trucking and less by rail but beyond that any news on parking lot crazy days for end of year?

There’s a lot in Eden Prairie, MN with a couple hundred Tesla’s delivered every week. Two truckloads per delivery run now, multiple times a week. It is as bad as Orange County, CA out here now. You can’t go ten minutes on the freeway without seeing one. It used to be you were the only one with a Tesla in your block, at your place of worship, picking up your kid from school, at the office, etc. Now? You’re not unique any more.

Attach a photo

I thought I read in Inside EV that Tesla bought a trucking company to have more control over deliveries and that it was faster than rail.

Yes, but car carrier trucks are only one link in the delivery chain. Every chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Will Tesla once again be calling for volunteers to help with end-of-year deliveries? I suspect they’ll find far fewer willing to help during the holidays!

Kudos to those volunteers who helped with deliveries at the end of Q3, but that’s no way to run a for-profit business.

datapoint: my LEMR’s VIN has serial number: 155752

It was scheduled to be delivered yesterday, but they denied financing (I guess $29k down isn’t enough?) so it’s being delayed until the 24th or whenever I can get alternate financing.

Sorry to hear your troubles.

I got mine with VIN 150NNN delivered on November 29th (LR AWD) … just another data point

Hmm. Should I ask a mod to X out the last digits? or is it far too late for that? :p What’s the harm?

No harm – if anyone really cared about VINs they could walk around any parking lot and look at them. It’s online privacy paranoia.

It might not matter, since it looks like the VIN is gone from my reservation now… I guess they’ve probably given that VIN to someone else and I’ll get the next one that meets my build spec.

Another Euro point of view

Maybe a blessing in disguise, getting myself into debt to buy myself something as vulnerable and as superfluous as an expensive a car is in the short list of the few stupid things I didn’t do in life.

what does LEMR mean?

Limited Edition Mid-Range.

“Limited Edition”? Can you explain the how the limited edition is equipped? How limited is it?

I suspect Bloomberg’s tracker isn’t working anymore. Now that Tesla’s are being delivered to normal customers instead of fanatics, they’re no longer receiving the stream of VIN info they were receiving previously.

Agreed

That seems to be the case. My LEMR is 151nnn and was delivered on 11/15. I did submit mine 🙂

Yea, I posted about that a few months ago. The other thing people aren’t doing is entering their orders into a once-popular online spreadsheet. Also a website that was dedicated to displaying the polling results for 10’s of thousands of reservation holder’s intentions for what they want to buy also shutdown completely. And there are no more new reservations being taken for US customers, so tracking Tesla’s SEC reports on deposits is also meaningless.

This is all the predictable and inevitable result of the Model 3 graduating into being a mass production car.

Per InsideEVs data, there are roughly 10,000 more Model 3s produced than delivered. Can’t expect all demos and loaners to convert to deliveries, but betting that enough of them combined with a slight increase in production is going to make Mark Kane move the InsideEVs logo up once more on his monthly graph. As Steven Loveday taunts us on the final days just before reporting December, the number is gonna be UGE!

It better be. They only managed to make a profit last quarter by holding back over 10k cars from Q2 and delivering in Q3. This is largely been lauded as a benefit to purchasers by triggering the 200k tax limit in Q3, but what is not talked about is that this same tactic allowed a profit in Q3. Basically Tesla has to make at least 10k more cars in Q4 just to make any profit.

Roy — You are incorrect about that. It turns out that Tesla actually sold MORE than 200K car by the end of Q2, and did not hold back at all as many as was expected. Instead Tesla relied upon the “sold AND put into service” wording of the law, where an EV isn’t counted as put into service until the state it is put into service officially registers it as in service.

Much of the sales made in the last weeks of Q2 were booked as sales in Q2 in Tesla’s SEC reports, but they were not counted towards the 200K sunset under 30d until they were registered by the states. (FYI — BMW and Ford are also known to benefit from the same thing, and likely many other companies — this isn’t something that just affects Tesla)

There are stories about this in the Insideev’s archives if you want to learn about it. Likely you don’t, since your only goal seems to be to attack TSLA.

Then how do you explain the table In this article:

2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered

Seems to pretty clearly show 10k more manufactured in Q2 than delivered and almost 3k less manufactured in Q3 than delivered.

“They only managed to make a profit last quarter by holding back over 10k cars from Q2 and delivering in Q3.”

Oh, lookee! A new conspiracy theory from the anti-Tesla cult. A new way to pretend Tesla isn’t profitable. 🙄

You are incorrect, Roy. First, Tesla always has cars in transit at the end of the quarter. It’s unavoidable. They had almost as many at the end of Q3 as the end of Q2. So there was no “10,000 cars held back” effect.

Second, even if they did hold back a few thousand, it did not create a Q3 profit. Cars produced in Q2 carried almost no gross margin. At most you’re taking about a couple thousand dollars per car, or less than 10 million out of a total. 300+ million profit.

The costs of making the 28k+ cars in Q2 is a Q2 expense. When selling these cars in Q3 the full prices shows up as revenue. You are wrong about revenue only being gross margin in this case.

“The costs of making the 28k+ cars in Q2 is a Q2 expense.”

That’s incorrect. The cost is added to the inventory line on the balance sheet. They do not recognize it as an expense until they sell the car. It’s basic accounting, which they explain it clearly in the 10-K.

Build a car for $50k in Q2 but don’t sell it:
-Add $50k to inventory, no effect on revenue or expenses.

Sell that car for $52k in Q3:
-Subtract $50k from inventory, recognize 52k of revenue and 50k of expense.

what does “lemr” stand for?