Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In Norway Expected To Begin In February

DEC 7 2018 BY MARK KANE 26

Just two or so more months of waiting left.

The first buyers of Tesla Model 3 in Norway report that they’ve received info about expected delivery in February 2019.

Model 3 is, in general, expected in the first European markets in the first half of 2019 and if Tesla is able to produce enough, it should significantly increase electric car sales on the other side of the Atlantic.

The demand for Tesla Model 3 remains unknown. According to AID analyst Matthias Schmidt (SchmidtMatthias.de), at least in Germany demand for Model 3 might not be as high as one would think. Tesla says that orders placed by the end of 2018 should be fulfilled by the end of H1 2019 there.

Guess well find out soon enough just how high (or low) demand is for the Model 3 in Europe.

Source: Matthias Schmidt

Categories: Tesla

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26 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In Norway Expected To Begin In February"

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Do Not Read Between The Lines

If deliveries begin in February and Tesla could only make 19,300 Model 3 per month, there could be no more than 96,500 sales. Tiny.

Also note that the UK+Ireland are 13.8% of the EU+EFTA market and Tesla won’t be producing the RHD version until end 2019Q2.

Isn’t this the case for all countries in Europe where orders for Model 3 opened up? So not just Norway? I am a reservation holder from the Netherlands and in my email it also said delivery is in February.

Yeah, I’m regarding February as extremely unlikely/optimistic, even for Norway.

Edit: I’ve also ordered.

As with what we’ve seen from US demand and production, the demand for the standard range model is probably the only variant that’s really overwhelming. There is evidence that pre-orders for the more expensive long range and performance models were all met this year in the US, which is why Tesla opened up ordering for those variants to the general public. Based on the total number of pre-orders and how many cars they delivered this year so far, I’d guess there are still roughly 300,000 or more standard range pre-orders waiting to be fulfilled.

Possible, but also consider that Tesla has not stated the number of cancellations for a very long time. Maybe people changed their minds for whatever reason. It’s also the reason that people rave about cars at an auto show but the convsersion to sales is low. It’s not a unique problem.

Seeing as that a huge percentage of the people in the same price range tend to lease, they might have been anticipating a lease more than anticipating the base model.

I am not sure why would anyone change their mind about the Model 3 SR reservation here in Europe.

The 2018 Leaf is still a dud without thermal management and not very good availability (6mo+ in my country and nearly Mod3 SR price on the acceptable trims). 60 kWh liquid-cooled variant just got delayed.

Ioniq, Kona, Niro, Soul are produced in tiny quantities and are even less available. 9-12 mo delivery times with non-refundable deposits (~5000 EUR in advance)

BMW i3 is way too small, funny looking and still short range. VW eGolf production already stopped.

And the rest are not even worth mentioning. Either way too expensive or unacceptable from the minimal technical requirements of any sensible EV buyers.

All in all, it is still worth keeping my reservation. I will cancel it when something worthwhile comes up and gets available.

At the moment I still expect that the Tesla Mod3 gets my money.

eGolf production already stopped? I don’t think that’s true?…

“There is evidence that pre-orders for the more expensive long range and performance models were all met this year in the US…”

That’s absolutely the wrong interpretation of the available evidence.

What is unquestionable — not merely having some evidence to support a claim — is that Tesla has limited demand for the Model 3 by not offering leases, and by making the $5k PUP (Premium Upgrade Package) mandatory. Tesla certainly has not satisfied all the demand for the Long Range Tesla Model 3, nor the Performance version; it has only satisfied the demand for the highest trim levels available for outright purchase, not leasing.

Well, they still havent opened the configurator to Lithuania. And im waiting for the mid-range RWD or Long-Range RWD version. EU does not need AWD

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Many people want the AWD for performance or handling, rather than for ice and snow.

So the handling is too good on the RWD, and that’s one of the reasons to get an AWD?

Suggesting European demand is limited because orders placed by the end of December will be fulfilled in the first half of 2019 is pretty dumb.
#1 – These orders are by invite only. They haven’t allowed people to generally order yet.
#2 – These orders are only for the more expensive configuration.
#3 – Tesla is currently building Model 3 at a rate of 7K per week and wants to reach 10K per week during the middle of next year. So a estimate of the first half of next year means Tesla has fewer than 260K orders. We already knew that – this literally told us nothing, because we already knew that fewer than 250K of the 500K deposits that Tesla received for the Model 3 had come from Europe.
#4 – Tesla still isn’t allowing people to lease.

In short – we have absolutely no idea where the ceiling on demand is.

#3 is a little high. I think they are producing around 5k a week.

The paint shop has been doing around 1300 bodies a day for at least a week. That’s s/x/3 but would imply a model 3 build rate of around 7000 per week.

That would be great news! Where did you see that number?…

Tesla employees on twitter:

“1302 was the old record the new record is much better”

#5 – I am a Tesla model 3 reservation holder in Europe, I am not able to order yet.

Tesla just started to invite people who are early reservation holders.

In Norway everyone can order a Model 3 even without a reservation.

Indeed, Tesla said so.

??? On the website you can still only reserve in Norway.

From what I’ve seen demand Is high in Europe.

Tesla can easily sell in US or Europe every Model 3 it can make and as they go down in battery size/options to lower price levels that dynamic repeats itself.

There is a limit on how many the organisation can handle, logistics and manpower. They hire people for all Tesla centers.
Many wanted the cheaper, not yet produced model, but I know people that will buy and sell with a profit.

True, but that has been the case with all EVs. Model 3 is the first EV model that will probably be able to have no waiting line, due to production volume. Maybe they’re 6-12 month too slow to really get the benefits from no competition.
Nissan LEAF is the most sold car in Norway now. VW Golf/e-golf/GTE is second, and BMW i3 is third. Waiting line for all electric models. Looks like KIA and Hyundai is slowly increasing production too.
Lets see if Model 3 can cover demand before 2020. They must keep a high stable volume.

Covering demand for the higher trims before 2020 is pretty much a safe bet… For the cheapest versions, it’s less certain.

Yeah, that’s a given. A lot of people are waiting for the cheapest version. I have 4 friends on a waiting list for the cheapest version.
Maybe one will be willing to pay more, for a higher spec model.
Keep in mind they didn’t pre order the Tesla Model 3 because of performance or autopilote. They liked the looks, and the low price Tesla said they could make it for.
They are not rich, and they wanted that EV to save money with less “fuel” costs and lower maintenance costs. Add free parking and toll roads too (that really add up).

If Tesla can offer more then the most expensive models pretty soon after lauch in Norway – they will really sell well. The top spec model will sell well too – but the real volume will be for the lower priced vehicles.
After all these are Toyota Corolla/Auris owner types, that want less hassle and cost in their daily driving.

They must be ready to sell several model specs by the time other large manufacturers come with their cheap(ish) EV models.