New Survey Predicts Huge Future Market Share For Tesla

Red Tesla Model 3 driving

MAR 31 2018 BY EVANNEX 23


One of the most famed Apple analysts, Gene Munster, has recently turned his attention to Tesla. Munster’s firm, Loup Ventures, “surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3… [and] found a surprisingly high number (17%) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by 3x, the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5%.”

RELATED: The Long-Term Case For The Tesla Model 3

*This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Matt Pressman. The opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily our own at InsideEVs.

Even though any first-time survey has its limitations, Munster acknowledges that the insights are “still valuable” for future projections. He predicts, “Longer-term (10 yrs from now) we believe Tesla can capture 17% of the U.S. auto market share, consistent with our survey results… [although] it’s easy for someone to say they’re going to spend $40,000 and harder for them to actually do it. Our optimism regarding this initial survey is based on dialing back the intent to buy by 60%, which would still indicate significant market share gains.”

Red, white, and blue Tesla vehicle lineup

A look at the Tesla line-up (Source: Tesla)


So what does all this mean? According to Munster, “Expect Tesla market share to increase from 0.5% to 1.5%. As of the end of Dec-17 Tesla has delivered 1,772 Model 3s. We expect 14k in the Mar-18 quarter and 168k deliveries in 2018, with a 70% chance they actually hit those numbers… If we assume Model 3 deliveries are heavily weighted (70%) in the U.S. initially, and that Tesla delivers the net preorders over the next two years, we expect Tesla (Model 3, S and X) to make up 1.5% of all cars sold in the U.S.”


Consumers wait in line for over 1.5 hours to sit in a Model 3 at a showroom in TX. January 2018. (Source: Loup Ventures via ntxteslaowners)

On the other hand, Munster expects a choppy ride. He notes, “[Tesla’s] ramp in Model 3 production won’t be linear. As Model 3 production scales to meet this backlogged demand, it will not be a smooth ramp from ~1,000 vehicles per week today to their goal of 10,000 per week. Steps up in output require factory retooling and significant capex investment that will cause temporary steps down in production. In other words, don’t be alarmed by the inevitable news of Model 3 production issues, as it may be part of the natural process of scaling production.”

Nevertheless, Tesla remains laser-focused on improving its manufacturing prowess. Once executed, volume deliveries of ~455,000 Model 3 pre-orders will likely result in market share impact. To accomplish this, Tesla’s herculean efforts to ramp up battery production at Nevada’s Gigafactory are both forward-thinking and industry-leading. That said, Munster admits, “We’ve seen the challenges Tesla has had scaling their production… To tackle this problem, Tesla has [also] made acquisitions in the manufacturing space.”

Tesla's investments

Above: Tesla is also investing aggressively in manufacturing capabilities via recent acquisitions (Source: Loup Ventures)

Elon Musk has said, “The biggest epiphany I’ve had this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory, and that this is at least two orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself.” Musk may be getting a head-start on this front as Munster notes, “While other car manufacturers build gas-powered vehicles at scale, building [high volume] EVs is a vastly different process that will require traditional auto manufacturers to re-engineer their production facilities. That means every automaker that wants to compete in the future needs to go through the production pain Tesla’s experiencing today.”


Source: Loup Ventures (Note: Loup Ventures surveyed 519 people in the U.S. — survey age and household income distribution representative of U.S. census data. Survey question: Would you buy a Tesla Model 3? ($40,000); Survey results: Yes: 17%, No: 61%, Maybe: 22%)

*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.

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23 Comments on "New Survey Predicts Huge Future Market Share For Tesla"

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“it’s easy for someone to say they’re going to spend $40,000 and harder for them to actually do it.”

That is actually true regardless of what car they are asking about, ICE or EV.

Statistically the two issues are completely separate. The reality is if you ask 500 people if they would buy a certain brand new car they are asked about, only about a third of those people will end up buying ANY new car at all. Instead they will buy a used cars. That’s just the reality of polling.

Obviously no poll can 100% accurately predict what people will actually do compared to what they say they would do in the future. But regardless of the number who actually buy, the important value of this poll is the gauge of the openness of mass market consumers to EV’s.

Traditionally the openness to EV’s has been claimed to be low. This is showing significant openness to even just this ONE brand of EV. This is a good sign for EV’s going forward.

I put out $55K for our new model 3. It’s the best car I’ve ever owned or driven. We had a 2012 S which was and is great but the 3 is even better.
We’ve meet Tesla owners all over the USA. They all love them and would never switch. One guy has the Roadster II Founders series. He loves Tesla and who doesn’t except oil producing nations and Frackers.

“Consumers wait in line for over 1.5 hours to sit in a Model 3 at a showroom in TX. January 2018.”

Which is especially crazy, since Tesla isn’t even allowed by law to sell cars in Texas. People are waiting in line 90 minutes just to see a product in a store, that the store can’t even sell them.


Tesla will file for Chapter 11 before this year is over.


That’s right WillTroll and Some Troll Out There, keep claiming that you are for America and voting for Trump while you are at it again.

Meanwhile Tesla is doing what no other Americanauto OEM has ever done and that is compete and win against the Euro luxury/sport auto OEMs.

Can’t have that–can we, in Seeking Liars/Breitbart/Trump Land?

Trump is winning👏👏👏👏

Too bad he has trouble keeping his staff employed.

Oh, and has he four lawyer to take is cast yet?

“out there”, indeed.

No way. Seeing and driving the Model 3 and seeing how deliveries are ramping I just bought more stock.

Tesla couldn’t successfully file for Chap 11 if they even tried. They are growing too fast and have too much future income for a judge to approve any cramdown Tesla would ask for. It wouldn’t get confirmed by the judge, and would end up being dismissed. So no, there is no chance of them filing. The creditors’ committee’s would reject any offers for partial or waived payments, because they would have the numbers to back up that they can be paid back in full by the time they are actually due payment in the future. Since Tesla is currently able to pay their bills when they are due, and has been successfully paying their bills when they are due, and they have the foreseeable revenues that could be used to pay their bills well into the future, the Judge would rule against Tesla trying to force a cramdown on creditors. The net effect of filing chap 11 would be the courts refusing to give Tesla relief, and effectively telling them to stop spending money on expansion and pay their bills when they come due in the future out of future revenues. (which have been growing like wildfire and show no… Read more »

hes under some delusion

The only things that are growing are Tesla’s losses and its debt to suppliers. Tesla needs to come up with a huge amount of money this year in a market where it is downgraded left and right, unable to keep up with promises and the stock is tanking. Give it two more failed quarters (and they will) and Tesla is toast.

Wow, you don’t know jacksh1t about BK.
Gi ask GM how it’s done. They’re the professionals at it.

Did you accidentally overdose on your “idiot” pills or did you take them on purpose as usual? Go away and keep your trolling and unfounded predictions to confines of your nursery school classmates.


That was refreshing…

In the last 3 years, Tesla’s Assets have by far grown faster than their Debts.

Tesla has also massively grown Revenues and Units sold.

But thanks for disqualifying yourself from intellectual discourse… yet again.

I believe in Elon and Tesla. But I personally do not believe that they are inventing means of producing cars and batteries that no one else is capable of or doing. Does anyone really think that Samsung or LG hasn’t figured out how to automate battery production? Apple seems happy with their work, and Tesla used Samsung for their Australian installation. And that BMW and VW can’t automate their factories? I grew up in Detroit, worked in a stamping plant. 20 years ago, I saw faster robots and a faster line in a Detroit factory than I did when I toured Tesla a year ago. Tesla is ahead on design for sure, but I’m not sure they’ll ever be ahead on production.

Well, If we just for a few seconds, take a look at Tesla this way: They are basically less than 6 years old in Auto Production, since the Roadster first edition, was basically Hand Built, like GM’s old EV1, and yet – they have gone up from about 12,000 vehicles a year to 100,000+ Vehicles per year, in about 4 years since (From 2013 – 2017 Production Years). Most people keep focusing on what Elon is saying they will do, but missed, instead of seeing what they have actually done, while others mostly watched, and a few, decided to come to the party! Now they are trying to get from 100,000 vehicles per year, to 500,000 – it ain’t going to be no picnic, and while they might not totally reach that level of production for the start of 2019, consider this – if they even make it to 360,000 total Vehicles made & sold in this year, that is 30X what they did, in 2012, just 6 years back! Seeing it in that perspective, makes it sound quite a bit different, and doing so will of course be some heavy lifting for them, maybe even a bit of Faith… Read more »

Good point, montefuego.

Tesla is using the same people, methods and tools as everyone else building vehicles, or batteries. It’s taking longer because they are starting from scratch rather than leveraging an existing functional plant.

I strongly disagree that other manufacturers will have to go through the same painful process. Other than optimising the pack manufacturing process, electric vehicles are the same or less complex to built than conventional vehicles.

Tesla is still a one plant company for building cars.
What idiot moron would compare they’re mufacturing numbers against other companies with 2 or more manufacturing sites?

How dumb.

Haha, nice April fools joke 🙂