Ford F-150 Lightning Reservations Exceed 160,000

Ford reports that the cumulative number of reservations for the upcoming all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning increased to over 160,000.

That's some 10,000 more than in the previous note in mid-September when the electric F-150 entered the pre-production stage.

The company clearly has an EV-typical demand problem - the inverse-type of the demand problem - which means that it is not able to produce as many vehicles as customers would like to buy.

Let's remember that the expected production targets are probably: 15,000 in 2022, 55,000 in 2023 and 80,000 in 2024 (doubled from 40,000) - the last one is official. That's maybe 150,000 units over three years.

Surely, not all reservations will turn into orders, but over three years, many more might be placed, which brings us to the production bottleneck. Ford's electrification push was simply delayed too long, but at least the current management is doing a lot more.

The order books will be opened in December, since the opening in late October did not happen.

The average number of new reservations per month - after crossing the initial 100,000 around June 9 - appears to be at over 10,000 a month. In 2024, the post-ramp-up production rate will be at under 6,700 a month, which speaks for itself.

• 20,000 in 12 hours (May 20)
• 44,500 in 48 hours (May 21)
• 70,000 in about 8 days (May 27)
• 100,000 in about three weeks (June 9)
• 120,000 in over two months (July 28)
• 130,000 in over three months (September 2)
• 150,000 in about four months (September 16)
• 160,000 in over five months (November 3)

Well, Ford has no choice but to closely monitor the situation, launch the F-150 Lightning in early 2022, invest in new gigfactories and already develop next-generation versions of the truck, with structural battery packs inside the frame, maybe LFP chemistry, and other ideas.

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