European Plug-In Car Market Expansion Interrupted In September 2018

OCT 26 2018 BY MARK KANE 9

Sometimes you have to turn direction to continue growth.

September 2018 was a specific month for general car sales in Europe, highly affected by the requirement to sell only cars certified to the new WLTP test cycle, which inflated sales in August and caused big drops in September (by more 23.4% according to JATO).

As you can see below on the graph provided by JATO Dynamics, almost all of Europe was on red as not all models were ready with WLTP ratings, and plug-in hybrids decreased by some 21% (all-electric went up by 17% as their emission results are zero regardless of test cycle).

EV Sales Blog reports that in September some 32,654 plug-in electric cars were sold in Europe, which is about 1% above September 2017.

The nine-month period thus far in 2018 closed at 274,504 and average market share of 2.2%.

Plug-In Electric Car Sales In Europe – September 2018

The best-selling model in Europe is the Nissan LEAF with 4,596 units and a big advantage for the year.

Strong September deliveries enabled Tesla Model S to take second place (2,854) and Tesla Model X to take fifth place (2,453). In total, Tesla delivered some 5,307 all-electric cars, which appears to be more than other manufacturers.

Registration stats for Europe are provided by EV Sales Blog:

Europe is now significantly behind the U.S. in terms of plug-in car sales and the difference is expected to further expand in near term.

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9 Comments on "European Plug-In Car Market Expansion Interrupted In September 2018"

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It’s because the WLTP. All hybrids, PHEVs and such have to rethink their battery sizes in order to comply with the new (a bit more realistic) emission/consumption data.

If Tesla can muster the Model 3 volume we should start to see an uptick next summer.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Tesla said in their earnings call that production for Europe would begin in January, so we might start seeing a Model 3 effect there in 2019Q1.
But, the larger effect would indeed be summer since that’s when Tesla should start shipping the Model 3 to the UK. Given the UK’s policy shift with PHEVs receiving _no_ POS rebate and BEVs #3,500 (down from #4,500), I can see Model 3 doing reasonably well. But as the Model 3 hits the UK market, expect the media to go heavy on the Thai libel case.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Later, in the UK, from April 2020 the BIK rates will more heavily favor BEVs. Can’t help but think they’re waiting for the big-battery Leaf.

How soon will that red graph reach the 50,000 level?

I don’t expect it in October or November, but it should easily happen in December… heck, even 60K seems possible for December.

in Europe, gas is expensive (~100$ a full tank), but we buy less EV than in US. It is not logical

Yet we spend less on fuel than the Americans.

Cars sold in Europe are way more efficient. Look around for V8s and count them.