Toyota Optimistically Predicts 30,000 Fuel Cell Sales Per Year By 2020


The Japanese firm is increasing production capacity to keep up with demand.

Toyota is upping its production capacity for hydrogen-powered cars after the company announced that it expects hydrogen car sales to increase ten-fold from 2020.

Whereas global sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles currently stand at around 3,000 a year, Toyota has said that it expects more than 30,000 hydrogen vehicles to be sold annually during the 2020s.

As a result, the company has unveiled plans for two new factories in Japan, which will build fuel cell stacks and high-pressure hydrogen tanks.

Production of the company’s fuel cells for its hydrogen-powered cars will move to a new eight-floor facility situated in the Japanese firm’s Honsha plant, near Nagoya, while the tanks will be built in the nearby Shimoya factory.

Construction is already underway, with the Honsha facility awaiting its interior fitting while the Shimoya plant is still being built. Both factories are expected to open around 2020.

At present, Toyota’s only hydrogen car is the Mirai saloon, which is sold in the UK and 10 other markets. Although it arrived on British shores in 2015, few of the £60,000-plus four-doors have been sold, mainly due to a lack of hydrogen filling infrastructure.

The firm also makes a hydrogen-powered bus called the Sora, which is sold in its home market of Japan.

According to Toyota, increased manufacture of the fuel cells and tanks will be vital in making hydrogen fuel cell cars more affordable.

‘To encourage more widespread use of hydrogen-powered, zero emission vehicles, they need to be made more popular and widely available by the 2020s,’ the company said in a statement. ‘Manufacturing these components at scale is critical to reducing system costs and making FCEVs more widely available.’

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54 Comments on "Toyota Optimistically Predicts 30,000 Fuel Cell Sales Per Year By 2020"

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Now THAT is comic gold.


Thank you to California TAXPAYERS, CARB is Fully Funding this HOAX.
You’d think taxpayers would rather the money be spent on an Electric Infrastructure of Charging in Cities and along Highways.

As the Hydrogen will come from Methane this is sad the Voters are being fooled.


“Fully Funding this HOAX”

If you repeat it enough times, it just might be true?


Look up the CARB credits for Hydrogen. California taxpayers are FULLY Funding this boondoggle.

Chris O

Also google travel provision for ZEV credits. You will find they are terminated this year for BEVs but the hydrogen lobby convinced CARB to be exempted. That should what, triple the ZEV credit value of these compliance cars?

That might explain Toyota’s eagerness to ramp up production.

For direct subsidies california’s $200 million contribution to hydrogen infrastructure comes to mind.


Not ALL of it comes from methane. Some stations split water on site.


Really? Which stations?


The ones which frequently close because they run out of H2 after fueling just a dozen or two fool cell cars.

The only stations which can supply more than that are the ones which are getting daily deliveries of “frackogen”, made from natural gas.

Gee, how “green” that is, wasting a lot of energy to convert one form of fossil fuel to another, wasting more to compress it and store it, and wasting even more transporting it in an expensive cryogenically cooled tanker truck to the fueling station!

Greenwashing at its finest. 🙁


“few of the £60,000-plus four-doors have been sold, mainly due to a lack of hydrogen filling infrastructure.”

That is BS. California alone has H infrastructure to support 10 times what they are producing and infrastructure is growing much faster than their production.


I’m not so sure about the infrastructure supporting many more FCEVs, certainly not ten times the present amount. At present, there are already lines at the existing stations on a decently regular basis.


“I’m not so sure about the infrastructure supporting many more FCEVs, certainly not ten times the present amount”

Looks like you’re right. It is only 7 times not 10. As of April the California had 33 stations and 4,200 FCEVs. They are supposed to be able to handle 900 FCEVs each.

Big Solar

how many refueling sites are in CA? Like 12? 16? Youd have to make sure you drive near them since there is no other way to refuel. Not even at your own home.


35 in all of America. Most are in CA. Still, not even close to enough.

As of April 33 were operational in CA. We add as many stations as 20 million dollars buys each year. As the average station price declines the number of stations per year increases. The stations are supposedly able to accommodate 900 FCEVs per. In theory they should be able to handle a population of 30,000 FCEVs. We had 4,200 in April. The simple solution for H fans is to swallow their pride, drop the religion and add a decent sized battery and a plug. Most FC stacks scale power and cost. Increasing the battery capacity would allow them to decrease the FC stack. With FCs currently more expensive per KW than batteries per kWh that actually should reduce the cost. As a range extender the stacks could be reduced from the current 100kW to 30-50kW. A 20-30 kWH battery would mean 95-98% of miles driven for most people would be driven via grid supplied electrons. That means your hydrogen infrastructure can now service 20-50 times as many vehicles because it is only fueling 2-5% of vehicle miles. If most of your miles are powered by low cost electricity then expensive H miles are less of an issue.

America has 35 stations. U really think that is enough?


Of course fool cell fanboys know it’s not enough. That’s why they keep predicting that hundreds of new stations will open up within the next year or two.

They’ve been predicting that for some years now, but the real world stubbornly refuses to bow to their wishful thinking. In the real world, building a H2 station takes about a million dollars per dozen fool cell cars served per day. So it’s not really a surprise that their wishful thinking continually fails to come true. What is a surprise is that auto makers continue to throw money away on this huge boondoggle!


“…infrastructure is growing much faster than their production.”

The number of H2 fueling stations is growing far, far slower than predictions by those actively promoting the “hydrogen economy” hoax, such as the California Fuel Cell Partnership. The number of H2 fueling stations actually open and dispensing fuel at any time is much lower than the total, also.

The CFCP predicted that over a hundred stations in the U.S. would have been built a year or two ago. In reality, that number is still less than 40! And significantly less than that open on any given day.

Not so amazingly, people actually running real H2 fuel stations in the real world are constrained by the Laws of Physics and basic economics… unlike the wishful thinking of fool cell fanboys and the Big Oil shills who promote the “hydrogen economy” hoax!


I’ll be lucky to even seen a Hydrogen full pump before 2030. Toyota needs to cut this. Fuel cells will only work in large vehicles and even then battery technology will replace hydrogen in those vehicles in the next 15 years.


China must not have heard, because they’re going all in on the tech. It’s all there in the “Made in China 2025” paper, look at the fuel cell section (no doubt few will!). A new Hydrogen Corridor was just announced, linking 5 major Chinese cities. You might ask yourself why you haven’t heard any of this.

The hydrogen vs. battery war (started and perpetuated by the H2Haters) is way over, you just don’t know it yet.


This, in economics, is called a “Stranded Asset”. The governments money will be totally wasted with no return on investment. And as China fully knows, batteries will be cheaper, and EV’s in general are cheaper.

This is an economic dead end.
But, if China want’s to blow their lead in EV’s….

Lou Grinzo

I often wonder about how the unwind from hydrogen will go. While the number of H2 filling stations and cars in the US is tiny compared to other technologies, it’s still a sizable number in absolute terms. As the new sales/leases of H2 cars declines in the face of their inability to compete with EVs, what happens to filling stations? If even a small percentage of them goes away, we could see thousands of drivers with no reasonably close to home/work way to fill up. Do the car makers then offer to cancel leases and simply take the cars back?


Sure. There is a reason why Toyota doesn’t ever sell the Mirai, but only leases it. Despite all its claims to the contrary, Toyota is fully aware that fool cell cars are a dead end, and they are ensuring they can repossess the cars when the number of H2 fueling stations inevitably starts to shrink.

I thought Honda was actually going to allow customers to buy the Honda Clarity Fuel Cell car, but perhaps Honda realized that was a very bad idea. According to the article linked below, you can only lease that fool cell car, also.


“The hydrogen vs. battery war (started and perpetuated by the H2Haters) is way over, you just don’t know it yet.”

Hydrogen cars have a battery so they could hardly be at war with batteries. That’s one of the problems. Hydrogen cars are at war with physics. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I’d be surprised to see a performance hydrogen sedan in the immediate future.


“China must not have heard, because they’re going all in on the tech. ”

All in? Did you read the doc yourself? China’s goal in 2025 roadmap is to have 40,000 passenger FCEVs by 2025. All in is more like the 300,000 battery electric buses China deployed in the last three years. Averaging 5,000 cars per year from now until the end of 2025 is not all in. It is a pilot project.


I have no doubt that those promoting the “hydrogen economy” hoax are claiming it’s a pilot project. But in reality, it’s just token support for a politically motivated greenwashing campaign.


“China must not have heard, because they’re going all in on the tech.”

Really, this is what you call “all in”?!?!

Correction: China is throwing some “greenwashing” money away on building a token support for those whose wishful thinking has lead them to demand a “hydrogen highway”.

Just like other efforts to promote the “hydrogen economy” hoax, this will be abandoned within a few years. Even the most ardent wishful thinking will only sustain continually wasting money and resources for so long.


Even Chinese government must not have read it then. Otherwise they would not be doing their serious push for plugins


Yep, they are taking over. 10 years from now you might happen to see one.




Plug-in hybrids with larger batteries, if they’re smart. Stranded assets if they’re not.


Just think, Toyota is predicting they will achieve yearly fuel cell sales in 2 years that will be equal to the 6 week Model 3 production of 2018..


Doesn’t seem too unreasonable when you put it that way.


250k Model 3 produced per year compared to 30k fuel cells for Toyota? That sounds good to you?

Shoot for the bottom rung, you’ll never miss, right?


Toyota didn’t actually say that. What they said was “post 2020” meaning not before the end of 2020. 2022 is post 2020.


Reminds me of Toyota claiming that the Mirai was “flying off the shelves” when they put it into production.

Well, as has been said: It’s a very small shelf! 😉

Chris O

30K people willing to pay $12/gallon equivalent fuel prices? I think not so fuel subsidies it is. Not a problem as long as it is Toyota that foots the bill.


Wow. There are going to be QUITE the lines at those five H2 stations…


Don’t worry, they’re building a sixth! 😀


Oh, well problem solved then! 😉


True story, though. I was at one a couple weeks ago and the line was five cars long.


Five H2 stations in a country of 1.4 billion. (That’s not a pilot project, that’s a joke!)

Actually, it won’t be a problem… because there won’t be anybody trying to actually fill up a fool cell car! It’s reasonable to believe that all or nearly all sales of fool cell cars will be token sales to government fleets, where the cars will remain parked and never used except for “greenwashing” campaign stops.


When people experience recharging at home, who will want to drive to a re-fitted gas station to pay $50-$100 or whatever to fill up with hydrogen, especially when that hydrogen was probably derived from natural gas?

Everyone I know with an EV loves plugging in at home in lieu of periodic trips to the gas station.

When graphene batteries reduce recharging time (400 miles in 20 minutes) and increase the range of EVs, the advantages of hydrogen wlll be what? Samsung allegedly already has such a battery.


Yes, and if you get an EV and Solar, you’re gas/transportation bill helps pay off your Solar Install at a faster rate: Profit to YOU.


What exactly will Toyota do with all the Mirai lease returns that should be returning as soon as this fall?


The become cars of the future past.


It is such a good looking car – why aren’t they selling thousands? I hear that if you drive a FCEV, it cures your cancer!


Makes your teeth whiter, too!


Toyota needs to read, “The Hydrogen hoax”


Sorry, the Japanese government IS the hydrogen hoax!


“The Japanese firm is increasing production capacity to keep up with demand.l
No,it isn’t. It’s increasing production to make it seem like it’s viable so that those employed in this division keep their jobs for a couple more years, because if their forecasts reflected reality they’d be fired right now.


Yup. I’d love to see a graph of Toyota’s projected sales of the Mirai vs actual sales over time. The two lines would be diverging rapidly!

It’s good to see that so few people have actually been taken in by those promoting the “hydrogen economy” hoax, despite all the efforts of Toyota and the Japanese government.


Maybe they should graph a comparison of the Prius sales vs Mirai FC, shifted so first year aligns. That should alert them that FC is not the market they think it is. I’ll help, here’s the first 2 full year’s sales in USA:

Mirai 1034 1838
Prius 5600 15600

They’re diverging already, even on a percentage basis.


honestly, 2800 Miraî only for the US, i am surprised !
Who did they sell to ? More expensive than a Tesla you can’t refill them, and a full charge is 40$

Sales or in-house sales ?


“Toyota Optimistically Predicts 30,000 Fuel Cell Sales Per Year By 2020”

That’s not being “optimistic”, that’s being outright delusional!

You would have thought Toyota had gotten the message from much lower sales of its fool cell car than they expected. But no; learning has not taken place!

If I was a Toyota stockholder, I would submit for a vote a demand that they cease throwing good money after bad on mass production of fool cell cars immediately.

* * * * *

A previous InsideEVs news report: “Toyota To Select Dealers: Stop Delivering The Mirai, There Is Nowhere To Refuel”