Tesla Releases Q4 Results: Turns A Profit Again

JAN 30 2019 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 129

Tesla notes back-to-back profitable quarters for the first time ever.

In its just-released Q4 earnings reports, Tesla again shows a profit, though it’s not as high as in Q3. Regardless, a profit is a profit and Tesla has proven to the world that it can indeed make money.

The main financial details from the report are as follows:

Tesla said it earned $139 million, or 78 cents a share, in the quarter, impacted by a $54 million non-cash charge, versus a loss of $4.01 a share in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted for one-time items, Tesla earned $1.93 a share, versus a $3.04 loss a year ago. Revenue rose to $7.23 billion, compared with $3.29 billion a year ago. 

That profit of 78 cents per share is a solid figure, though the big Q3 profit was way higher at $2.90 per share. However, Q3 was always expected to be a bigger profit quarter for Tesla, so there’s no miss here.

Tesla Model 3

The Model 3 is the primary focus of late. On this front, Tesla states:

Model 3’s production rate progressively improved through Q4, with December 2018 being our highest volume month ever. In ourFremont facility, we are now past the steep portion of the production S-curve, and we expect our production rate to continue to gradually improve. Every part of the Model 3 production process has demonstrated over a 24-hour period the ability to produce at an extrapolated rate of 7,000 vehicles per week. By the end of this year, we expect to be able to produce Model 3 at this rate on a sustained basis.

As we improve the production rate of Model 3, the cost per vehicle continues to decline. It is critical that we continue this trend so that we can keep increasing the affordability of Model 3 while retaining a sustainable level of profitability. The labor hours per Model 3 vehicle declined yet again by roughly 20% compared to Q3 and by about 65% in the second half of 2018 alone. Despite introducing a lower-priced mid-range variant and other headwinds, Model 3’s gross margin remained stable in Q4 at over 20%.

You’ll find Tesla’s release in its entirety below:

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129 Comments on "Tesla Releases Q4 Results: Turns A Profit Again"

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Good for Tesla! the Model 3 is a tremendous success!
* Best-selling passenger car in the US in terms of revenue in both Q3 and Q4
* Best-selling premium vehicle (including SUVs) in the US for 2018 – the first time in decades an American carmaker has been able to
secure the top spot.
* Best-selling plug-in car in the US for 2018 and also the world’s top selling plug-in model for 2018 (leaving the Leaf and BAIC EC-180 well behind)
* First plug-in car to sell over 100,000 units in one year

And kudos to InsedeEVs. Tesla presented a graph of U.S. sales to show off that “Tesla vehicles have accounted for all of the electric vehicle (EV) volume growth in the US” for the past two years, based on InsideEVs’ scorecard!

” the Model 3 is a tremendous success!”

I continue to see model 3’s even in our podunk little town of 20K. Yesterday I saw 2, last week I saw 4 on the highway in a stretch of just 2 miles.

Yeah, but it is typically he same one driving around just to drive u crazy.

Agreed, probably more in town than all other EVs sold previously. I have seen only a small handful of i3 cars in 5 years, and probably a dozen Model 3 cars in a couple months. The Model 3 is more subtle and harder to notice right away too.

Non in my podunk little town, but then I am in the UK so I suppose I have to wait for mine a little while longer, ohh well.

Go go gadget Tesla

I’m in the UK too – and my sister has a Model S. I’d like a Model 3 but it would probably have to be 2nd hand before I could afford it. So a couple of years wait yet.

The thing about the Model 3 – even more than the X we have – is how damn fun it is to drive. I’m just happy each time I get into mine.

I live in Arlington Virginia and I see Teslas every 3 to 4 minutes when I am driving. They are incredibly popular here. When I visit McLean next door, they pop up every 2 or 3 minutes. It is incredible how many Teslas there are in McLean Virginia. And a ton of them are X’s. But it is the 3 that is starring in the show, every week it seems like they become more common.
I see Volts, Leafs, Bolts and i3’s, in that order of frequency, but not nearly as often as the Teslas.

> Turns A Profit Again

Some people are going to be really upset, in denial, or complete ignore the good news.

No kidding. I still keep hearing the “Tesla will never make a profit” lines from deniers. I wonder how many quarters or years of continuous profit it will take before they stop saying that?

I think the more important question is “How much longer can they keep saying that before everybody just points and laughs at them?”

What if they gave a Tesla bashing FÜD-fest and nobody came? 😉

All that profit is just government subsidies.

I hate that I have to do this, but /s

The fact somebody modded you down, says u were spot on.

The thing is forcing Tesla to be profitable, Slows Tesla’s Growth.
That’s the number one reason shorts want Tesla to be profitable, to slow them down.

Exactly, I want growth not profit. 50% growth or more yearly without increasing long term debt. Positive free cash flow is more important than profits for that growth to continue. They will be just fine on that front even if they don’t have profits in Q1 2019.

Congrats to Tesla.

GO TESLA!!!

Marvelous news! Great job! The future looks very very bright indeed!

Nothing surprising. Everything is on track. Okay, maybe the energy side is a little bit lagging. But the automotive operation looks good and cash flow is good.

Well done.

I saw Energy & Storage did 371 rev, on 328.7 cost. That ~43mn helps(!), and they expected 2GWh of just stationary storage sales, for the year.

Unfortunately, that 43m doesn’t begin to cover SG&A and R&D costs for solar and energy storage.

” The labor hours per Model 3 vehicle declined yet again by roughly 20% compared to Q3 and by about 65% in the second half of 2018 alone. Despite introducing a lower-priced mid-range variant and other headwinds, Model 3’s gross margin remained stable in Q4 at over 20%.”

So, anything on the timing of that base $36K version?

End of 2019, after every $ of federal incentives are gone?

From the UK Tesla website:

“Designed to attain the highest safety ratings in every category, Model 3 achieves 220 miles of range while starting at only 35,000 USD before incentives.

Reserve your Model 3 today. Deliveries in Right Hand Drive markets begin in the second half of 2019.”

NA base Model 3 deliveries are supposed to start 1st quarter.

Those two sentences aren’t necessarily the same. RHD is true for later this year. Highly doubt that base would be available in Q1.

We switched to Dollars in the UK? When did that happen?
I know Brexit was going to cause significant change but never saw that one mentioned before !
How will i pay at the pub tonight?

Almost sounds like it will have to come from the Chinese plant. Otherwise my answer is ‘not until they have to’ because it would be outright foolish to roll it out until there isn’t enough demand for the higher end units.

Bingo! As long as Tesla is straining to build enough higher margin models, why on earth would they devote precious resources (as in production capacity) to lower margin models? I wish Musk would simply say, “We plan to keep our promise of bringing to market a $35,000 Model 3, but in the short run we have to focus on profitability, building cars for those on our immense reservation list, and bringing out new models.”

I agree, Tesla should say exactly that. But then, a lot of those North American reservation holders would give up and buy a different car. So Tesla’s claim for “about 3 to 6 months from now”, a claim which keeps drifting into an ever-receding future, like walking toward a mirage, seems to be merely a marketing effort to dissuade reservation holders from abandoning their plans to buy a Standard Range Model 3.

They still have a ton of money in the reservations account. I think I read $793Mn. That is a lot of demand even if most of it is for the base model. I am hoping to see base model deliveries in Q3 but having upgrade demand stay high enough to push the base model into Q4 would probably be better for Tesla long term, even if it chaps the a$$ of a lot of base model buyers.

Doesn’t that also include those reservation fee from the roadster at $200K and Semi at $100K each?

It does, but the amount of 3 reservations would seem to outweigh the roadster and semi deposits by a huge margin, but I may be wrong about that.

No way. Will be some time before they can create excess capacity there. Shipping a car across the ocean is unnecessarily expensive.. especially when you don’t have to.

CAPEX for continued build-out of Giga 1 seems to be missing from the discussion. I suppose GIGA Europe won’t start in 2019. That’s a shame. Think that’s needed to make room for Y production start in US in 2020.

Y is to be built in GF1 starting 2020.

Who said 2020?

Musk said initial production in early 2020, volume production by yearend. Along with some mumbling about exponential S curves.

from the text:
“Additionally, this year we will start tooling for Model Y to achieve volume production by the end of 2020, most likely at Gigafactory 1.”

Model Y 2021!
🙏🏼

They were able to change the layout to improve the current production with existing size of Giga 1.

Y is gonna be done at Gigafactory 1

That’s the plan, but it could still change. Hey, they’ve got 11 months, no reason to lock things down prematurely.

They seem to be waiting on some shuttered plants.. definitely holding the cards tight.

They are adding space right now to the European assembly plant. Hopefully, that is to make the 3.

I presume you mean Tesla’s Tilburg “Final assembly” plant in the Netherlands? That’s very far from being a full-fledged auto assembly plant, and I seriously doubt it will ever be expanded into one.

Tesla (or Elon) has talked in the past about a European Gigafactory. Haven’t heard anything about that lately, I think because Tesla has (wisely) concentrated on more immediate concerns. But perhaps Tesla will start moving forward with plans for a European Gf this year, or next.

Great job Tesla. Hope they will streamline the process and produce Model-3 more efficiently and start selling in other countries and turn out more profit in the coming quarters.

The high # that Model-3 sells makes us so happy.

Better than I expected.
🙂 🙂 🙂

Keep Going Tesla!

Another Euro point of view

So the Q4 2018 profit is tiny, the Q1 2019 profit will be even smaller if not a loss, both in Q4 2018 and in Q1 2019 Tesla has that specific segment of EV market almost all for itself with little to no competion, all of that while addressing the highest priced Model 3 back log. From there I really wonder how Q2 and Q3 2019 will look. Good luck anyway.
Also, how will Tesla finance their growth in 2019 with those tiny profits, having to proceed to a 920 mio bonds repayment in March ? Was Elon talking about possibility of raising fresh capital in 2019 during the earnings call ? If not then Tesla growth story is more or less on hold for 2019 while the rest of the car industry is investing huge amounts in EVs production. The most interesting view on the current situation comes from the Tesla Motors Club bulls themselves, complaining about poor owner experience (service centers). Correcting this requires investments (cash) if super tiny profits and no capital raise then no customer’s experience improvement. Neither European customers nor Chinese customers are likely to accept this current situation.

You didn’t pay attention to the call, did you?😄

“Clean Diesel “ driving Another Euro is a serial anti-Tesla poster here like MadBro.
It is probably going to kill him when he constantly sees Model 3s driving around him in the next year!

Tesla volume in 2018 was way ahead of any other manufacturer outside China. 2019 may double that. Now you’re already beyond the volumes that the competition has planned for 3 years from now.

2019 won’t double. They did 245k in 2018, guided 360-400k in 2019. Roughly 50% growth.

Practically nothing really.

It’s amusing to see a “mere” projected 50% growth in sales in a year, from a heavy industry business which is no longer a startup, to be dismissed as same ol’ same ol’. 😉

But Tesla’s sales growth during 2018, about 138% (!!), is unlikely to ever be duplicated.

100% quarterly revenue growth, YoY. That is a nice number to see on the report!
” Tesla generated $7.23 billion in total revenue, more than double its $3.29 billion in revenue during the same quarter in 2017. “

Can anyone sing a lullaby for this person?

Not surprised at your disgust at Tesla’s success. Yet everyday we see more and more of their vehicles on the road.

That’s gotta suck for you.

I know you typed a lot of words, but they didn’t make any sense. But see you next quarter when you can paste the same thing, just like you probably did last quarter.

Another euro point of view
Well cash increased by 713 million in the 4th quarter, so Tesla now has 3.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

So what were you saying again.

@Another Euro… said: “So the Q4 2018 profit is tiny… bonds repayment in March… poor owner experience… blah… blah… blah…”
————-

lol…

@Another Euro… has a rough 2019 ahead of him. Gig3 coming online may take him over the edge.

How odd. Other than 1 owner who had an early model X and another who was a far right winger gripping that Tesla gets massive gov subsidies ( yeah, right) I’ve never met any owner that has had a bitch about the service center. Why is it that only the online anonymous are where I hear service center issues?
Also why does Tesla have the highest loyality from customers?

I find it both surprising and amusing that several diehard serial Tesla bashers pretend to own Tesla cars. What, they actually think we’ll believe they hate Tesla so much that they just had to go out and buy a Tesla car?!?
😆 😆 😆

Where to start? 1. “Q4 profit tiny.” Well it is less than infinity so comparably yes on that scale. 2. “All to themselves.” Well yeah. That was kind of the point. Too many people on this site compare Tesla to every single vehicle on the road which is off base in my opinion. But right now there’s no direct competitor…that doesn’t seem to be changing in 2019. The downfall of the Germans is pre-mature and if we read his comments and the numbers he is saying it isn’t German premium cars being traded in for the most part. It’s vehicles one wouldn’t normally consider competitors. That means he’s suggesting any drops in German car sales is self cannibalization of their cars by their SUVs. i.e. he’s providing info that says it’s BMW SUVs cannibalizing BMW cars. By extension he is implying that the introduction of BMW PHEVs or Audi e-tron isn’t going to impact Tesla sales that much even if those products are run away successes. 3. “How will Tesla finance their growth in 2019….920 million dollars in bonds”. Well pretty sure he just told us. Chinese factory = Chinese bank loans. Cash on books > sufficient to pay the… Read more »

“completely free of starry eyed ‘aspirational’ talk that has no foundation in reality”

Seriously? Dispatching service trucks before your broken-down car comes to a stop? 15-20 minute repairs? Building factories in 1/3rd the time anyone else can, for 1/4th the cost of Fremont even though they got that building essentially for free? 500-700k Model 3s per year?

Well. Lets start with just one thing. If they build the Shanghai factory in 2019, and produce 2k+ cars there per week by Dec 31, yes, that is some kid of record which is probably 1/3 of anything else.

Tesla has already said the Shanghai Gigafactory won’t be producing in volume for 2-3 years after construction started.

You’re confusing using the Shanghai Gf for something like Tesla’s European “final assembly” plant, with an actual automotive assembly plant.

They said full production line – body stamping, welding, paint and assembly – by end of this year, reaching 3k/week between Q4 2019 and Q2 2020.

That schedule is nuts, and likely to turn out as well as the last time Musk over-promised.

Oops! My error for not actually reading the article. You’re correct, the earnings report does specifically say:

“In the initial phase of Gigafactory Shanghai, we expect to have stamping, paint shop, body joining, and general assembly shops in operation by the end of 2019. This accelerated timeframe should be possible due to the radical simplification of our manufacturing layout and processes compared to our first-generation production line in Fremont.”

Looks to me like Elon is back to being his old much too optimistic self, but we will see what happens.

California is the biggest car market in the USA.
Tesla is not even at 15% of the California market, should make it to 50%.
Especially with the Model Y.

Recommend learning something about the topic before forming opinions.

A tiny profit added $720M cash to the chest.. that’s THREE QUARTERS of a BILLION, after CapEX and a $230M debt repayment

Speaking of comments for which the proper response is merely to point and laugh…
🙄

With Tesla it seems people always want more. What about the Y, when is the truck coming, how about the Semi? Little to no excitement in regards to other legacy auto manufacturers or what they are doing in the ev space, though the Ford Ranger is getting some buzz. Think about how that would be received as an ev.

The point of all this is that how can this be, it’s because Musk is the Kwitatz Haderach, and Tesla are the Fremen and they have come to change the world and cleanse the Universe, in what amounts to an electric vehicle “Holy War” vrs ICE.
But still there is no demand for evs, as some would preach and have you believe. But they have been, and will continue to be, wrong, now and into the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8-eiBqri0U

Kwitatz Haderach, huh? Nice. Ha ha.

Muad’Dib

And playing the part of Baron Harkonnen in tonight’s performance is Bob Lutz…

Ouch.

“I must not ICE. ICE is the mind-killer. ICE is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face ICE. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the ICE has gone there will be nothing. Only EVs will remain.”

The problem with the haters of Tesla is that they don’t even realize they trap themselves in a cult of hatred and fear. Alex Roy points out “Even if you hate Tesla, you must love Tesla.” because no one in the last 50+ years has created as much excitement in the US car industry as Tesla has.

http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/6172/an-open-letter-to-the-tesla-saboteurs

Alex Roy continues:
“It’s true. Literally everything the critics hate about Tesla is in fact a strength. Kool-Aid? Here’s a vat of it, for even if everything Tesla’s critics say is true, Tesla has made the American automotive industry great again, and for that every American should all be proud.”

Outlook:

“In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019, representing a growth of approximately 45% to 65% compared to 2018.”

That’s a combined annual total of the Tesla Model S, the Tesla Model X, and the Tesla Model 3.

An average of 6,000 units of the Tesla Model 3 per week translates to an annual total of about 300,000 global Tesla Model 3 deliveries in 2019. That would be an increase of more than 100% compared to 2018.

On the other hand it looks like the global combined annual total number of Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X deliveries will not be more than 100,000 in 2019. Actually, it’s highly likely that it will be less than 100,000 in 2019.

360,000 is an average of 5000 model 3s per week + steady state 100k S/X. Seems quite reasonable.

Outlook:

“Model 3 production volumes in Fremont should gradually continue to grow throughout 2019 and reach a sustained rate of 7,000 units per week by the end of the year.”

An average of 6,000 per week in 2019 is more accurate than an average of 5,000 per week.

Plus they predict some output from Shanghai this year.

They delivered 90k cars in Q4. The low end of their guidance is 90k per quarter, so no growth. Revenue would actually decline in that scenario as they sell fewer high-priced S/X and Model 3 ASP declines.

No, Tesla predicted some parts of assembly would (or at least could) occur at Shanghai this year, just as some parts of assembly in Europe occur at Tesla’s Tilburg plant.

Since Tesla will be using Chinese battery cells in Model 3’s it sells in China, Tesla is obviously going to want to start assembling Model 3 battery packs there as soon as possible. I presume that will be hand assembly to start with, and that Tesla will be duplicating the automated pack assembly lines from Gigafactory 1 there as soon as possible.

“Also, by the end of this year we are expecting to start producing Model 3 vehicles at our Gigafactory Shanghai using a complete vehicle production line. ”

Nothing like Tilburg.

That’s confusing to me it seems like Gronnimer built the manufacturing line for the cells, battery packs and assembly line. I would think there working on building the components of the assembly line from the existing drawings and that by the time the shell of the factory is completed that they would begin installing the equipment. The raw material lithium, rolled aluminum, steel plates etc. would be purchased in China. Some of the components already come from China like the display etc and continue to be supplied by China.

Yes, Tesla Grohmann Automation (Tesla bought the company) can build out a factory assembly line, test it, and validate it before the factory even breaks ground. Then they just break it down and ship it anywhere in the world and reassemble it in a matter of weeks.

This is exactly how they’ve been operating for years before Tesla bought them. It is nothing new or hard for them.

And the Model 3 assembly line is already a known entity. All they have to do is duplicate it, they don’t have to reinvent it.

In all honesty, continuing a record quarter for 4 more quarters is pretty good.
Tesla grew at 138% last year – on pent up demand for the Model 3 and the expiring US federal tax credit. Q4 2018 was always going to be amazing. And Q4 is always the highest. So calling the repeat of Q4 2018 for 4 more quarters no growth is disingenuous.

Tesla could see little 2019 growth (not saying that will happen) and that would not mean the sky is falling. Long term 50% sustained growth is allowed to be 138% one year and 0% the next.
But lets not ignore the continued production efficiencies and this little car market called Europe for 2019. Then China is 2020 and the Model Y? – the next few years are just fine.

Sure, Tesla has always kind of had a burst-pause pattern. And they just had a huge burst. I’m just making sure people understand the pause is coming. I see people saying they’ll double in 2019 and double again in 2020. That kind of extrapolation isn’t realistic, even through Musk sometimes says so..

Q1 will be down sequentially, but way up year over year. The other quarters should also be up year over year. Certainly on units and probably on revenue.

You should change your username to Droopydogworld. More accurate.

https://nocigarettesnobologna.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/droopy-dog.jpg

Well if the tariffs go back up to 40% in China on March 1. It will be difficult if not impossible to sell any vehicles in China.
I’ll be surprised that a deal is made.

I think it’s April 1, but yeah…

Yahoo already has smear articles-o-rama regarding Tesla’s “failure” even though they turned a profit. Good Christ, the panic to see Tesla fail is at a level yet unseen.

There have been plenty of articles like that all day long.

Musk + Tesla are bring more than one form of disruption to the world. Some people won’t be able to handle that until the rEVolution is over.

I had a front row seat for the exact same thing when PCs arrived. The anti-PC/”mainframes forever” zealotry ran deeper and was angrier than anyone can imagine who wasn’t involved in the computer industry at the time (and I was). Those of us in the PC camp knew it was simply a matter of time — the growing capability and declining cost of PCs would win eventually. Sound familiar…?

Was there too Lou. Was there when our company, Brown & Sharpe Mfg., gave up the VAX for a 386 with 4 meg of RAM costing $500 per Meg running SCO UNIX. Later came Microsoft. You have to be pretty old to remember the saying “What does UNIX and the blue screen of death have in common? Absolutely nothing!

Good times. I worked at IBM when the original PC was introduced. It was… interesting.

I’m there now, with people arguining that coal plants can be made more flexible and dispatchable to compete with renewables. Meanwhile, I’m watching long-term PPAs for wind and solar come in a $25-$35/MW-h… As Upton Sinclair said, it’s hard to get a man to understand something when his job depends on his not understanding it.

Yahoo Finance and other business sites basically have robots that compare reported EPS to analyst consensus and spit out “miss” or “beat” articles. It’s really hard for analysts to estimate Tesla EPS because of weird things like non-controlling interests (a 120m swing from Q3 to Q4) that nobody understands.

Did I miss it, or was there no mention of the roadster? Good riddance if so, but stupid fun is still fun. And I don’t think I heard anything about the pickup truck. OK those are often stupid also, but they can be fun and sometimes productive. Maybe stupid fun has to wait until 2020? Well OK, save the planet and us first, fun later. Yeah OK so let’s be grown-ups now whatever.

Seriously, the staggering number to me is 33,000 Tesla charging points, between SuperChargers and Destination chargers (of which there are nearly twice as many, since of course AC rules). Just staggering to me. The gap just keeps getting wider and wider.

Oops, I see in the other article that the pickup truck was mentioned verbally in the earnings call, with a reveal probably this summer. But nothing on the roadster, interesting…

Q4 looked great to me. The most concerning remark to me is the guidance of 350,000 – 400,000 EVs produced in 2019. Model S& X has been at 100,000 for several years. Model 3 has been pretty consistent at 5000 per week. Even if Model S&X drop to 80,000 and Model 3 remained at 5000 per week, that would produce the minimum of 350,000. The Bloomberg tracker, if you look past the 13-week trailing average, is showing 6000+ for several weeks now. The thing to watch is the point where RWD starts shipping to Europe and Asia and compare the AWD global numbers to the US. This will give insight to the luxury demand. I would have bet the AWD and RWD global numbers would be 80,000 with the US numbers over 100,000. IMO, they will start assembling the base Model 3 in Giga 3 just as soon as the walls are secure (think Q4). Current Model 3 MR is $44K. Remove the premium option ($5000), cloth interior, cheaper wheels, metal roof, slightly smaller battery, and lower labor cost in China need to reduce another $4000 and then they start making as many as they can push out the door.… Read more »

Yes, the low end of the unit guidance is discouraging.

I also thought they’d start final assembly of cars in Shanghai before they had the stamping, welding and paint shops built. But they say complete production line including all that stuff. That’s delusional, IMHO.

January and February are terrible sales months for all automakers. That’s why Musk is hoping for a tiny profit.
I wish he’d send all the cars he could to China before March 1. I don’t think there will be a trade deal and I only hope that XI would give Tesla an exception.
I was glad to hear that Tesla didn’t buy the land for 600 million that some people thought.
Getting a 50 year lease for 141 million is much better.
I don’t know how leases work but I would think you don’t have to pay property taxes if you lease.

According to what I’ve read, it’s not possible to buy land in China. Or at least, not possible for a manufacturing company to do so. The best they can do is a long-term lease, which is just what Tesla has done.

And Deepak Abuja leaves Tesla….again. Stock tanked on that news.

Yeah, that is the strange part. He is actually retiring.

But that is 2nd time leaving Tesla for the CFO.

LMFAO at MadBro!
Tesla is building factories as his employer GM is shutting them down.

Why are you so defensive and rush to deflect his post?

Bro might be a pro-GM person, what he posted isn’t wrong. CFO leaving was announced at the end of the earning’s report and after market TSLA is currently down $14.77 per share or 4.78% around 6:40pm PST.

Totality of circumstances. Anyone else who isn’t chronically, obsessively anti-Tesla makes that comment and Get Real’s response wouldn’t have been made.

Chronically obsessed with Tesla? That is you.
If you compare the number of Tesla-related posts I have made against yours recently, you’d win in a landslide. #TSLATROLL

I post nothing but the facts, and the #TSLATROLLs still get out the pitchforks. It’s comical really. Lol

A serial Tesla basher’s claim that Tesla’s stock price is down by $14+ only, or even mostly, because an executive is leaving, is certainly worthy of being jeered.

I see that after yesterday’s sharp dip, the price of Tesla stock today took an even higher upward climb, albeit only temporarily. That’s perfectly normal for this highly volatile stock. Any statement about how thus-and-such has caused the stock to “tank” is very likely to be shown to be fatuous and clueless just a day later… exactly as has happened here.

So why are you such an apologist for MadBro, rushing to defend his over-the-top assertion?

I wasn’t defending Bro1999. I wasn’t only critical of the so called personal attacks from GetReal when Bro1999 posted factual information. CFO left, and after market stock was down $14 per share. It was both true at the time Bro posted the facts. There were couple articles out at the time claiming that drop was mostly due to the surprising CFO leaving. Either way, Get Real could have refute the “theory” that drop was caused by the CFO leaving. But instead, he choose the personal attack.

Seriously, the constant personal attack by some Tesla defenders are really annoying and making Tesla fans look like a bunch of nutjobs. Just focus on facts and refuting theory, no need for name calling.

Like I said, I can resort to name calling too, but it wouldn’t make any thread pleasant to read. I think we can all be “better” than that. Regardless of whether we agree with one person or his past post or views.

I don’t see it as a problem. I’m not sure how old he is, but he’ll still be an adviser.

I think he’s 56. Investors see him as a steadying influence on Musk’s nuttier impulses, so they’re not happy he’s leaving. I thought he failed completely on “Funding Secured” day. Not that anyone else would have been more effective.

No one else would have been more effective on “funding secured!” day and the immediate aftermath. Not even a clone of Elon. Self destructive people are gonna self destruct regardless.

Deepak couple have at least tried to talk him off the ledge, though. Instead he meekly offered to write a press release confirming the tweet.

Congrats! On the other hand release a model 3 without the bundled PUP!

I think that it would be fair to say:

• that global Tesla EV deliveries in the first half of 2019 will probably not be higher than 150,000 units, and;

• that global Tesla EV deliveries in the second half of 2019 will probably not be higher than 250,000 units.

And that’s a pretty good outlook (compared to the global Tesla EV delivery numbers in 2018).

1H19 should be 170k That’s down slightly from 174k in 2H18.
2H19 should be 190-230k.

Nice work by Tesla. It looks like they are well on the way to a permanent position in the new “Big Three” of (primarily) luxury automakers with BMW and Daimler.

Good to see an American automaker leading again.

I thought Audi is also a big luxury maker…

“Tesla will never make a profit…” read Bloomberg, listen to Bob Lutz and so on.
Fake news are so common lately. I was really upset reading Bloomberg “fake” report on Tesla. They were constantly undermining every aspect of this company and magnifying every little flaw of the cars. It was so evident Micheal Bloomberg was just another shorter of the Tesla shares.. So I quit reading Bloomberg.
Are those media reliable? NO. When i read a report or a new regarding Elon Musk or Tesla only WSJ seems accountable. Starting from this, of course, i have no reason to believe those media coverage on everything, especially on subjects they hate like Elon Musk and Donald Trump. What is worse is that a fake new placed on Bloomberg than is replied by CNN, then NYT, then NBC, then The Post and finally fake becomes true, almost!! Have you ever noticed this? It is incredible the power of those FakeNewsProducing media.
Kudos to Musk.

Hmm, ASP was a bit north of $50K according to some guestimates, gross margin is a bit north of 20% according to Tesla, so basically production cost of Model 3 is currently ~$40K? That’s still a *long* way down to the <$30K production cost that would make that $35K version viable. I wonder what Tesla could do what it isn't doing already to achieve such a spectacular cost reduction.

ASP was closer to 55k, imho, average cost close to 44k.

That would be even worse but the exact numbers are just a guess. The big question remains: what sort of cost reductions are actually feasible for Tesla? There is going to be some further economies of scale as Tesla ramps up to 7K/week (though I reckon that requires a lower priced model so big chicken and egg problem there), for the rest there had better be still a lot of scope for further efficiency gains in the production process. And I do mean a lot….

Elon did mention that 65% cost reduction in labor cost in building the car.

So, if Munro’s estimate has any value, then ~ 2/3 of the cost is in materials and 1/3 of the cost of the car are labor. If they can reduce labor cost by another 50%, they can potentially break even or make small margin on the $35K version.

I am guessing Tesla is really hoping on the Shanghai site to achieve the labor saving on the $35K version.

Musk said months ago that a base Model 3 would cost $38k to produce, and they never truly expected more than 15% margin on the base model (from some interviews shortly after reveal). So, they don’t have as far to go as you suggest. Further, Musk pointed out that there are more economies of scale to achieve (easily done with global deliveries just beginning and no sign of any domestic demand cliff), and it was recently announced that there are some improvements to the Model 3 coming that will help streamline production.

It turned out that the $35k was based on manufacturing efficiencies that they have not achieved (nearly full automation failed, using more people on the lines than anticipated), so it is obvious why Tesla isn’t manufacturing the base model yet. Combine that with pressures for near-term profits, and ongoing high demand, I don’t expect the $35k model to roll off the lines until late 2019, at the earliest.

$28k to produce?

Elon twitted that it cost them $38K to produce right now.

$28K is the cost estimate from Munro of “what could be” once they reach scales and all the labor saving. So, it looks we are still $10K from the target.

The China plant should help that cost reduction a lot.