Tesla Q1 Sales Down In Western Europe, Model S & X Down Globally


APR 10 2018 BY MARK KANE 31

While Tesla is ramping up production and deliveries of Model 3, combined sales of its two other cars – Model S and Model X – are decreasing.

According to the AIDNewsletter via a Matthias Schmidt tweet (see below), Tesla delivered 6,158 Model S and Model X in Western Europe during the first quarter of 2018. That’s 5.2% less than the 6,397 it delivered in Q1 2017. We should note though that there were some troubles with deliveries in Norway.

Read Also – Tesla Production And Deliveries Graphed Through Q1 2018

Deliveries of the S and X decreased in the U.S. by 5.8% too, if our estimations are correct.

The previous three quarters were stagnant for the S and X in the U.S.:

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (quarterly) in U.S. – through March 2018

Globally, Model S and Model X deliveries decreased nearly 13% to around 21,800 in the first quarter and that’s the first time we’ve seen a decrease year-over-year.

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (quarterly) – through March 2018

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31 Comments on "Tesla Q1 Sales Down In Western Europe, Model S & X Down Globally"

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Tesla moved workers from S/X assembly line to Model 3 assembly line.

The wait time has continued to grow for S/X’s as production falls behind growing S/X reservations.

Another Euro point of view

That is likely a good reason but is a bit weird as Model 3 production is supposed to be more “robotized” than Model S and Model X production. Anyway Tesla should fix that fast as it is not good to restrict sale of your highest margins products.

Actually, Tesla has been very upfront about their roll-out of the “alien dreadnought”, and how it will be an evolution starting small and moving upward and onward over time.

Tesla has been very clear that initial production was V1.0, increasing to V1.5 and V2.0 as they continue to evolve the line. I’ve posted the source on this info many times before, in response to your repeated FUD posts, so you already know this.

I don’t think that is the case. I think it is simply that Tesla Model S and X sales are stabilizing. They are both selling very well in their segments and sales stabilizing is nothing unexpected. (Model S was what, best selling premium full sized sedan in US and Europe?)

Of course some cannibalization from Model 3 and high possibility of a Tesla Model S/X refresh as well are probably playing a role. (I think Tesla will do a refresh by end of the year or beginning of next year once the Model 3 backlog is more cleaned out)

It is very much the case, and well documented.

Yes, Model 3 sales are limiting sales growth. And there is nothing wrong with that. Overall growth is like a shotgun going off. Some slack in S/X sales was expected due to the amazing number of people who stretched their budget to the max in order to get any S/X. But this impact has not been as much as even Elon and Tesla thought would happen, as sales continued to go up in 2017, and demand still is going up in 2018.

The reality is that Tesla never planned to build this many S/X cars as they were building in late 2017/early 2018 — they are struggling to meet more demand than they planned for.

Somehow I’m sure you think this is bad, as ICE car sales in the same market sector is down by DOUBLE DIGITS!!

The Model S and X are way too big for most European and other markets outside of the USA.
Tesla could drop the price on these two models by $5 to $10k to increase sales before the Model 3 hits these markets.

I’m not so sure about that. The Model X is no bigger than some other SUV type vehicles that are popular in the UK. The most prestige vehicle here seems to be a Range Rover, which a lot of people either own or wish they did. My neighbour has a Model X, and it’s no bigger than a lot of other SUVs and transit vans that are parked in my neighbourhood. As an aside, I hate my neighbour because he only had a used Leaf when I exchanged contracts on my house, and when I moved in he had a brand new Model X, making my three year old plug in prius look crap. What a d*ck move:)

Just wait until Jaguar, Audi, Mercedes and Porsche release competing cars without the poor Tesla build quality over the next 12 months. Expect Western Europe sales to collapse to half the current rate.

Jaguar, Audi, Mercedes and Porsche: will not be making cars in mass. They will limit production on cars to around 20k to 25k a year total. The reasons for this is 1) They don’t want it to eat into their ICE car sale profits so having just low EV numbers means they can direct marketing to target only Tesla and other competitor EV customers or target just their own customers who want an EV car and would have abandoned them if they didn’t have an EV choice.

2) They have not invested in enough batteries to meet larger scale production. Either their own investment or investment with other battery suppliers.

This is the reason why BMW have now said they need to push back the timescales by 2 years for mass production EVs to 2022 because they do not feel it is profitable before then.

Between them, that works out to 100% of Tesla’s global production of S and X. Dave T was only claiming a 50% ding.

And that will eat into the ICE pie. The EV share is just growing, plenty of room for others than Tesla while Tesla sells as many as they can manufacture.

It will be great when other car makers put out future cars that will actually compete with current or even half-decade old Tesla’s.

Competitive EV’s will just cut way more into ICE sales, opening up MORE buyers to buy EV’s. That just grows the number of sales opportunities that Tesla can compete in. Because Tesla has zero chance in competing for a sale where the buyer is only considering ICE cars. But once that switch is flipped and the buyer is willing to consider buying an EV, Tesla suddenly has a chance to compete in that sale.

More competitive EV’s that are good enough to replace ICE cars simply helps Tesla nose into ICE sales numbers.

Another Euro point of view

I also thought that be it does not show as in Norway sales were up 40% year over year this quarter with Jaguar I-pace first deliveries taking place this summer and Audi eTron quattro later around December. If those were so desirable products would Tesla sales still increase so steeply ? Now, as in the Netherlands this year, there could be tax consideration that push people into buying early. But I am not aware of that in Norway.

All EVs will sell in Norway. Some more then others due to price.. but a normal ICE car is so expensive, maintenance costs and parts are probably the most expensive in the world, AND the fuel is about the most expensive in the world. Model 3 is not the reason why Model S & X sell a bit less. The Model 3 is not for sale yet, and at work we preorders the car, and are told middle to late of 2019, as expected delivery date. Supply may be some of the reason, but it is after all expensive models, and most people can not afford to spend that amount of money on just a vehicle. Given a lot population and not that many people buying that expensive cars. . They may have reached the limmit of the market. Now it is some new customers, and others that replace their first or second Tesla. Model 3 have better chance of high volumes. In the mean time Nissan, KIA, Hyundai, VW and Renault sells cheaper EVs. Jaguar will sell some of their new EV, and in 7 months time Audi will come with their EV, with about 7k pre orders. Volume… Read more »

There will be an increase in global sales numbers of the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X in the following quarters.

The percentage of the general public that will accept the EV as a viable means of transportation will keep increasing steadily.

The marketshare of EV’s in general will keep increasing.

More people who can afford to buy an expensive car will decide to buy a Tesla EV.

EV’s will eat marketshare of ICE’s.

This exactly. Plus I have no reason to believe that VW/BMW/Mercedes suddenly find themselves with a high tech R&D division that produces as good a end-user experience as tesla does. We have had a Model X since end of May 2016, and a Model 3 since January this year replacing our VW eGolf, and both are so far ahead of everything its not even funny. Does BMW make better seats with massage chairs? Hell yeah but thats really about it from my experience. I take a more sparse but powerful, and convenient tesla with proper autopilot driver assist, summon, autopark, large supercharging network and over the air updates improving the car over its lifetime, any time.

You’re kidding right?

Wonder if this (non-USA sales) will change as the Tesla gets closer to that 200K limit…

If Tesla was going to shift sales/deliveries overseas to delay passing the 200,000 U.S. sales milestone, they would already be doing it.

Barring a major disaster at Tesla, there isn’t any reasonable doubt left that they’ll pass the 200k milestone this quarter, which means the full Federal tax credit will last thru the end of this year. Half credit will start 1 Jan 2019.

(Credit to WadeTyhon for crunching the numbers several weeks ago.)


If they pass 200k in Q2, then the $7500 credit ends in September.

I agree completely. I can’t imagine Tesla purposely shifting anything in order to maintain the credit. I will be very surprised if the automaker does something of that sort intentionally.

Yes, so far there is no increase in overseas sales. Quite the opposite. And it would be impossible for only 6 Service Centers in Canada to significantly offset sales of the Model 3. A few thousand deliveries over the next 2 months is about all Canada could manage I think. So if we don’t hear about European Model 3 sales being pushed up by the end of this month, the likelihood of pushing to Q3 becomes even lower than it already is. Tesla doesn’t have thousands of dealers who can hold huge inventories until July 1st. They do have lots in California where they can store vehicles. These lots have been closely followed on TMC. They will often swell with vehicles until they completely fill up several times a month, and then clear out to make room for more vehicles. But if the current rate of production is 2,500 / week and climbing… do they have enough lots to potentially hold 10,000+ units for several weeks while also trickling out some S/X/3 for sale? I don’t think so, personally. (But if we start seeing parking lots filling up for weeks around the country, maybe.) So they’d have to cut production… Read more »

*if they hit 200,000 this quarter

This weekend I had a chance to see the Model 3 for the first time and seeing it next to Model S in a showroom, I think Model S needs a redesign bad, ala Roadster. If you redesign, up the specs with the new battery (maybe 150 KW for Performance Version), Model S will be a great vehicle with no competition.

120 kWh would be enough.

It will be interesting to see, my bet the Model 3 will increase the market for Model S long term.

Another Euro point of view

The think is a Model S & Model X are extremely expensive when European VAT & import cost are added (around equiv. of $95k for cheapest Model s). Where I live (Luxembourg) could arguably be an excellent market for Tesla as highest PPP in Europe. Sales in Q1 2018 are down 35% as compared to Q1 2017 here. People buying $100k cars around here are often extremely “latest fashion” sensitive, that could be one of the reason with aging Model S. To follow up in Q2 and Q3 2018 as Norway for example on the contrary does not show any of that (increase of sales by 40% year over year)

Goldman Sachs due for a 36% price slide. I have a $155 price target. Hahaha

Building cars? The car market is decreasing in demand….SUVs and Trucks bud! Are the new in demand market in the US. Ask Honda, Porche and Lamborghini! Tesla should have made the 3 a mid size one of THOSE.

Elon said in the last conference call that they are limited to 100,000 s and x a year due to battery constraints. It seems like they still can hit that number with some build up of reservations and the ability to go back to three shifts later in the year.

Just imagine, one day Tesla might have to advertise!