Tesla Pushes Up Delivery Schedule For New Model 3 Orders

Tesla Model 3

JUL 18 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 184

The Model 3 Performance Dual Motor model could be delivered in as soon as one month after an order is placed

Coming just days after Tesla opened the ordering books for the Model 3 to everyone, there’s more great news from the California based car maker. Tesla has once again improved the delivery schedule times for its electric sedan.

According to information currently available on their website, if you order Tesla Model 3 with rear-wheel drive or the Performance version with the same drivetrain, featuring the long-range battery and the premium interior, you could see wait times as short as one month. This marks a huge improvement for anyone that wishes to order the entry level all-electric sedan.

To put things into perspective, back in May, Tesla was able to reduce the wait time for new reservations for the rear-wheel drive, long-range battery version of the Model 3 in the U.S. from a whopping 12 to 18 months to a new wait time of just four to six months. And mind you, this was less than three months ago.

Tesla Motors is on a rampage regarding their production output. Currently, the cumulative production volume for the Model 3 exceeded 50,000 units. However, the output decreased from a peak 5,000 to roughly 3,500 a week. But, the output is expected to return to approximately the 5,000 mark rather soon, allowing Tesla to further shave off delivery times for their vehicles.

Tesla Model 3 Delivery Times

If Tesla can keep up the production rate increase, more and more people will get to receive their highly-coveted all-electric sedan quicker. Right now, according to information available on the official website, customers ordering either the Performance dual motor all-wheel drive or the rear-wheel-drive model, packed with the long-range battery and premium interior, will see a wait time of 1-3 months. For those ordering a dual motor all-wheel drive with the same interior, will see a wait time of approximately 2-4 months. A huge improvement over the last estimated delivery times we saw just a week ago.

However, the customers that wish to order the Model 3 with a standard battery will still be faced with 6-9 month long wait times.

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184 Comments on "Tesla Pushes Up Delivery Schedule For New Model 3 Orders"

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It would be a bit concerning if out of the 450 – 500k pre–orders, after delivering 50k they have almost cleared the backlog except for the basic version which they are not sure will be profitable.
Agreed that shortening the leadtime will bring in orders from those not previously willing to wait years but still interesting to see how the story unfolds.
The performance model is far from an economy vehicle, is there really significant demand over and above the Model S with free supercharging?

Re: backlog except for the basic version which they are not sure will be profitable.
Multiple articles believe even the basic version is profitable. You are pushing a myth.
Title: Munro Eats Crow, Finds Tesla Model 3 To Be Highly Profitable
https://insideevs.com/munro-tesla-model-3-profitable/
Title: Tesla Model 3 teardown points to only $28,000 in potential material and production cost
https://electrek.co/2018/05/31/tesla-model-3-teardow-material-production-cost/

It’s really hard to judge this stuff. Without knowing their actual manufacturing costs, based on their mix of labor and automation, the capital costs of the machines, etc this could easily be off by 20% in each direction. Only time will tell.

Tesla’s manufacturing cost is still much higher then the industry average, as they have not achieved a smooth flow, over time. Even running 24 hours a day they have not been able to consistent build 715 Model 3’s per day. Monday was only 530, which is 30% below the target.

Bloomberg’s tracker is back down to around 3k/week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

It is at 4330. Maybe refresh? If you mean the projection, then yes, but the projection is based on past results of end of quarter pushes and then a drop off. Correlating past results in a very small sample size for future projections is silly. Just a week ago the future projection was down near 2000. The projections are meaningless.

Yesterdays Model 3 production was approx 400 units… hmmm, not the good trend

Not sure where you get the numbers. If it can’t be verified by others, you can make any claim you want. You may have correct info, but without verifiable info it is not very helpful. Will you point me to your source? I am genuinely curious.

You can find the daily production on twitter, they are reporting S, X, and 3 every day. They nailed the Q2, end within a few units, and called the July 1-4 shutdown before anyone else reported it, so I would guess it is coming from inside… No way to know for sure.

OK thanks. I will take a look there. I do not have a twitter but I am sure I can search there to find the data.

FYI — David Green posts this repeatedly, yet never comes up with a link or twitter handle when asked…..

Good to know.

I’d call myself… Not That Dave as well !

Keep looking…. its out there…

David, not in the true sharing spirit? I see you remember the numbers, but lay no claim to remembering the sources, to quote them even!

He repeatedly does this on multiple websites. He posted the same “source” yesterday in another story. He claimed to look at every single day’s tweets and added up the totals from every single day.

But now the twitter handle must just be on the tip of his tongue and he can’t remember…. LOL!

Yeah, I knew the positive Model 3 timeline news would surely anger you.

It’s not clear if this is positive or not. It depends on whether this indicates a lull in demand.

Regardless of being positive, you’d ensure that it wasn’t. (that’s my guy!)

exactly. It remains to be seen if this is positive or negative news! We will learn a lot form July sales, I think sales of anything less then 15K July sales would show a problem with demand, more then 20K would show demand is still very high…

Considering they had what, 11,000 vehicles in transit at the end of the month?

Well, consider this: in my case, last year Tesla said that Late 2018 us Canadians would get our chance to order, and my Financial Preparation is just right for that, but then they sent them up to us 6 months early! That did not change when I will be ready to commit and “Pull the Trigger” on my order!

Most importantly, note the other story on this website today, about the i3 coming (Rumored) with 120 Ah cells, for 217 miles range! Keep an eye on that, since, if true, it looks like it will try to compete with the Bolt EV and Base Range Model 3! If it does come, its price fit may determine if it is a winner!

The EPA range will be *much* lower than that. The 120 Ah battery is only about 30% bigger than the 94 Ah one…

Considering how much engineering they threw at lightening the frame and components, unless they made a lighter battery, far more efficient motor, etc., yeah, I would agree. I don’t think BMW is working on the i3 based on comments from someone who met with the VP of manufacturing for the factory that builds the i3.

Well, it’s model/configuration-based. Let’s not forget the context, though: N. American orders. Is this even available outside the continent? You’re right, it could mean something about demand, or it could mean that a whole lot of the Model III reservations were overseas. I recall reading that S. Korea was bazonkers for the Model III. 450k reservations, assume 25% were in the US. I know that there were 1200 day-one reservations in Minnesota (1 of 50 states), and at this point, I am seeing a Model III about as often as a Model S and more often than a Model X. They have been delivering 25+ a week of the Model III since February, so they are probably at 50% deliveries in Minnesota of the day 1 reservations, and are starting to deliver non day-1 reservations. A good number of people were leasing a Leaf, so I can see buy timing as a subject. Those waiting for the $35k configuration could easily be 30%. In summary from my anecdotes, I don’t see this as some massive lull, I do think we are collectively over-analyzing it and should avoid falling into associated traps.

If the base model was truly profitable, Tesla would be taking orders for it. Only they know if it’s truly profitable or not and estimates like those can easily be way off. Don’t believe everything you read on the internet.

Why would they produce a profitable base model when they can produce an even more profitable LR or AWD? The Model 3 is supply constrained, and there is pressure on Tesla to return a profit. The will sell every single 3 that they can make for another 12-18 months, so why would they not produce higher margin versions? None of that suggests that the base isn’t profitable at all, simply that it’s not as profitable as the higher optioned versions.

The basic concept at play here is opportunity cost: Why did apple discontinue the iPod Nano when it was selling and was profitable? Because the iPod Touch and iPhone were selling at even higher numbers and profit. So there’s no reason for them to use table and shelf space at Apple stores on the nano, because there is more to be made by using that same space for a different product.

Because there are thousand upon thousands of people that forked over $1k 2 years ago to get in line to buy a base Model? And now that line has effectively been killed.

Nope. They’ll be the first in line to get $35k model when it becomes available. And they’ll love their car too.

LMFAO at mental MadBro!

Sorry shill, but it is Bolt sales that are getting effectively killed now that the Model 3 and new Leaf are out.

Time for you to get a real job.

Why don’t you try to have facts / data and a constructive conversation that brings some value instead of just attacking people and creating strife?

Sorry, but coming from you, that’s just hilarious! The constant unerring anti-Tesla meme(regardless of topic) from the two of you fairly well speaks for itself.

Key being , I try to stick to the conversation, and not attacking the people who are here. I also do extensive research to back up what I am saying.. If you disagree with me, I am fine, post the data… and we can discuss it… No need to insult each other…

Actually, you consistently fail on the facts, both here and the other green car websites you troll.

When you get it wrong over and over, and make up crap and say you vaguely got it from twitter, or your unnamed buddy at GM, you lose credibility.

Over and over you DON’T post the data. You post un-sourced info that others then have to prove you wrong over and over and over on multiple green websites. And you don’t even have the intellectual honesty to admit when you are wrong.

Writing BS to DISTRACT from the conversation, often with the clear intent of taking the discussion far away from the story at hand, is not “sticking to the conversation”.

Lost all your Mirrors, David? Or, who are you responding to? Get Real, or bro1999? Comment streams on this website do not make this clear!

Sorry you bought a Bolt, bro.

A Bolt EV is still better than a Leaf, in a lot of ways, since it dies have some actual TMS installed, in spite of its other challenges! And, Bolt EV beets iMiEV Specs, i3 BEV Specs, Ford Focus EV Specs, etc. Definitely not the worst EV one could buy.

Probably just not the best EV that he figured it for, though.

Sorry, john likes to ride his vaporware $35k model 3.

I honestly think the Bolt’s a pretty awesome car, except for the seats. Sadly that’s a pretty uncomfortable except.

I forgot, Tesla has a moral obligation to go bankrupt and then give nobody their base 3, and also keep their deposit because they went bankrupt and can’t return it. Look, I wanted a SR PUP but went ahead and did the math and ordered a LR PUP because it’s not feasible that my dream scenario will happen. Despite how I might feel about how this affects me personally, Tesla has done nothing illegal or immoral, since Wall Street is signaling that they must show profits and Tesla has a way to show them by satisfying demand. Personally, I don’t like the fact that I stood in line on day one, but that somebody that pays more money than me can have their performance version before me. But as a rational adult, I look at why and I understand. If I find the situation that distasteful, the only thing that Tesla owes me is my deposit back.

Have had the LR version since january, wow what an awesome 9k miles so far. still doing joy rides where I can. You will not regret it .

By bro1999?
😌

Because you will lose half those reservation if they don’t

That may be true. However, if it’s also true that moving to 35k now would bankrupt them, then they’re choosing the lesser of two evils. I’d like SR to be available now, but that’s an understandable decision.

On the other hand, shipping 1 in 10 now, as a Base Model 3, but with Premium Upgrade, at $40,000, should not Strain their Finances that far, either! That, or Base Battery + PUP + Dual Motor @ $44,000, could also happen before the bare base model, with no mandatory upgrades.

Don’t? Don’t … What?
Base Tesla Model 3 WILL Come, in 6-9 Months: January to March, 2019! Any that leak out sooner will be Bonuses, in USA!

Also, GF1 might just have enough cells to keep feeding lots of Long Range Cars, but other suppliers might not be able to maintain a higher rate of some of their other components in the Model 3, to keep up with a higher production rate push, just yet!

Everyone talks about Tesla’s Inabilities, but they do not make Everything In House for Model 3, and some suppliers may either be new players, or Tesla might not be their only client! They might not have ability to sustain a supply chain high enough to feed Tesla for a steady 5,000+ units per week, along with meeting other clients needs.

We can all trust scottf200. He’s seen the internal profit margin numbers for the SR Model 3, so he’s an authority on the subject. *sarcasm off*
YOU are pushing a myth that the base Model 3 is truly profitable. It’s funny you quote the same guy that months earlier all the fanbois like yourself were accusing of spreading Tesla FUD.

Munro is talking about Gross profit and assuming smooth production flow…. Net income is something completely different… Just FYI…

Sandy Munro, president of Michigan-based Munro & Associates, said the car generates net profit margins in excess of 30 percent. Munro, whose firm tore down the Model 3 to better understand it, made his comments on an appearance on Monday on Autoline, an automotive-focused television show.

In previous episodes discussing the Model 3, Munro had been critical of the car’s fit and finish but praised its handling on the road.

“The Model 3 is profitable, so I have to eat crow. I didn’t think it would happen this way,” he said on Monday. “No electric car is getting 30 percent net, nobody.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-study/tesla-model-3-is-most-profitable-electric-car-consultant-idUSKBN1K71VV

Better go back and watch the video…

This one?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY

30% net is what he said about nobody getting that in the EV space in the context of saying Tesla is getting over 30% on current available Model 3.

Is there another video I need to watch?

He said “No EV maker gets 30% net”, then corrected himself and said “gross…” Sandy is a teardown and reverse engineering expert, not a finance expert. When he quotes a price he is using his estimated cost of materials and the industry normal cost of labor, which is the same method used in the German teardown. Although the German teardown specifies at 10K weekly production. Now, we both know Tesla manufacturing is far from efficient or optimized to industry normal levels. Another thing to consider is Tesla’s per vehicle operational costs, which exceed any other maker by a wide margin. You will see in the Q2 earnings, huge losses. Just wait for the real numbers.

Maybe he tried to correct, but it is unclear since he did not finish his statement. you can hear a bit of a G sound so you may be correct to assume gross was the word about to come out. To say he is not a finance expert is silly. His business is to provide teardown financial data to finance people. He knows what net and gross are.

Regardless, even over 30% gross is very good since nobody in the electric car space is getting 30% gross, and Tesla is getting over 30% gross.

Yes, once they ramp up further and smooth out production their net will get better. This is what happens when building a cap intensive business from the ground up.

Q2 will not be great. We all know that. They held back on deliveries to pass the Fed credit number in Q3. Fixing bottlenecks was expensive. They will have a loss in Q2 and quite possibly still a small loss in Q3, but I am expecting a profit in Q4.

Yes, I agree with you… Most bears think Tesla will lose from operations a bit over 700M in Q2, about 250M in Q3, and Q4 will be right on the edge of profit. But Tesla also have some debts that have to be paid in that same timeframe, so cash flow will remain negative. Q1 2019 is where most bears are very skeptical, when high end Model 3 sales are expected to dry up, and the 35K model becomes 50% of the production. Also see USA and China headwinds on Tax Credits and Tariff.

You seem to be parroting almost word for word what Montana Skeptic said on the podcast with Galileo. I do agree that most of the reservations are for base model and I have said that since the beginning, but have been drowned out by other loud voices. Remember some are also saying that they could open LHD international orders to expand their market for top end vehicles. Will this anger some of us base model rez holders? Yes, but I prefer a healthy, growing company to one that cannot survive due to thin margins, so I continue to wait. It is not fun, but it is reality and that is OK especially since this car was not supposed to come out until 2018 at the earliest anyways. Speeding up the production timeline and assuming more automation would be better is what hurt Tesla in this instance, but I think they have survived it and they will now thrive.

Of course, I am bearish on Tesla, and do not like Elon Musk at all. I think in some areas Montana Skeptic is right on target, and other areas he is old and tired. Financially his analysis is usually very close, in units produced and delivered, I am usually closer. I do not agree with MS on where EV’s are in the global marketplace, and I know from experience they offer a better driving experience then ICE cars. I could not help but notice in the debate yesterday that Gali was severely overmatched in data and facts, and kept reverting to hype and excitement. I am with you, although I will not be a fan of Tesla until quality improves, and Musk moves on to something else. Tesla is anything but a healthy company… When I invest in companies one of the things I like to do is evaluate management and go back a couple years at a time and see how the executive staff do in executing guidance. Of course hindsight is always 20-20, but consistency is the important factor to me. Go back and look at Tesla’s 2017 3rd, and 4th qtr earnings report and look at guidance,… Read more »

Fords Exec might have intended to allude that Ford is a Mature and Smooth Operation, but he inadvertently gave Elon a new target to shoot for, too! Production Numbers, and the F150!

It sounds like you are a fan of smooth running long standing companies for which your data models work. That’s fine. Looking back at data with a large sample size is a decent way to analyze and make educated guesses. Looking at limited data in a new environment that is disruptive to old models though is much tougher. The target diameter is huge because of unknown factors and limited data. For example, Tesla has only launched 3 models of cars. That is not much of a sample size to say anything absolute about the future either positive or negative. One thing I do see which is a possible correlation is that after the launch and stabilizing of production on each model, the company’s profitability rose significantly as capex went down. This is possible for Model 3 as well, but not a given. Disruptive companies and products are not easily analyzed. Amazon, Netflix, iphone, ipad. Many analysts did not give these a fighting chance early on. Although Tesla has been around a while, I think auto manufacturing is one of the hardest industries to compete in let alone disrupt. My turning point for support was when they bought Nummi. That showed… Read more »

btw, I thought most bears were skeptical of 2500/week sustained, then 3500/week sustained, then hitting 5k/week at end of Q2. Now the goalposts have moved to demand for highly optioned and Q1 2019.

At this rate the bears goalposts are nearly out of the stadium and I don’t know any kicker that can kick one out of the stadium.

Tesla has not hit any of the numbers you mention, Q2 production of 28K was 21XX a week sustained rate. I think they are now at closer to 3300 per week, but I expect another burst week, so they have something good to talk about before they release the dreadful Q2 earnings.

David Green, Model 3 Production rates, are a bit like my tallies for my paycheck for the year! At week 28, if multiplied by 52, I might have a yearly income that is bigger than my average weekly pay x 52 weeks, or smaller, but I still compared both for references. Sure, a one time “Burst Rate” of 5,031 on the last week of the quarter won’t raise the averages as much as a linear growth rate would show, but it does show that once supply and systems and labor are all tuned up, what can be done. Even an average at present of just 3,000 per week, is still 12,000 per month, 39,000 per Quarter, and 156,000 for 12 months! Still over 2 years just to satisfy the wait list (Reservations). That STILL beats the pants off any other single BEV Production rate made in America, if not Japan and Europe, AND PHEV’s, it seems to me, as well! Tesla also will add to that, another 2,000 per Week in Model S & Model X production, for a rate of 250,000+ EV’s a Year! One Company, still challenged, doing MORE UNITS, per One Year, than All Other OEM PEV… Read more »

Actually what a burst rate shows is that you can work around the bottlenecks and paint up some extra bodies, then burst them through final assembly, same at GF1, sustained production rate over months-quarters-years is the only thing that matters, and pays the bills.

So what you are saying is that a lot of the plant can work much faster than 5k/week and there are just painted car bodies stored all over the plant somewhere waiting to be assembled. Then when they really put their minds to it, they just burst them through GA3 and GA4. Got it. Any facts to back that up? Source? Interesting considering Elon himself said one of the bottle necks was the paint shop.

Tesla sold 24,367 3’s in 2018 when Elon promised 200K by last Christmas.

Was it a pinky swear, a blood brothers pact or did he swear on your mama’s grave? Obv, he did not forsee the battery automation and GA automation issues when he SET A GOAL of 200k by EOY 17.

Bloomberg estimates they have been well over 3500/week for the last 4 weeks. I think that is pretty good if not close enough to be considered sustained. Their estimates may be low as well since Tesla reported over 5000 for the last week of Q2 and Bloomberg only estimates 3840 for that week. If you are looking for a whole quarter for 3500/week sustained rates then Q3 will have to prove that to you. I have no doubt it will barring unforeseen/acts of nature circumstances.

Please explain to me, David, the Bloomberg tracker claims 50K 3’s made but inside ev shows 2018 sales of the 3 at 24,367,there can’t be 25K unsold model 3’s lying around, can there?

In Transit and Canada Maybe?? Bloomberg says 41k at end of Q2. 10k in transit? 6-7k to Canada??

IEV scorecard is US only and only an estimate based on state/rebate program data, thus the Bloomberg model to attempt to get better accuracy with self-reporting, etc.

Also, subtract the 2600 from last year from the 41k total to get the total for 2018 which is 38.4k, so maybe only 7500 in transit and 7k to Canada.

Bronco — Right off the top, Insideev’s Plug-in Sales Scorecard is US only, and excludes Canada.

But you know that already and yet still post the same drivel….

There is NO WAY an outside can know what a “net margin” is on a product without knowing Tesla insider financial information.

The so called tear down with parts and labor cost can ONLY give you an estimate on “gross margin”. That is it.

Net margin estimate would require some major insider knowledge on Tesla which I seriously doubt Munro can acquire. It would have to be an internal leak if he does have that information.

Any net margin given would be with the assumption of industry standard labor costs within a well oiled machine. I think he did misstate it as net and meant gross.

As I said above, that does not matter since nobody in the EV space is at 30% gross and the LR/PUP Model 3 is at 36% gross. The AWD and Performance versions will be higher. No idea if Autopilot or FSD is factored in at all. My guess would be they gave him an FSD model to increase the price tag. He supposedly said later that the base model could get to 18% gross. The goal is 25% across all versions. They may come close to 25% in a year or so.

“It’s funny you quote the same guy that months earlier all the fanbois like yourself were accusing of spreading Tesla FUD.”

Sandy Munro did generate a lot of anti-Tesla FUD in his first Model 3 “teardown” video. A rather shocking amount of it was complete bull pucky.

But he obviously had a Road to Damascus, “Come to Jesus” conversion between that video and the new one. Unlike the Usual Suspects here — that includes you, dude — Sandy Munro is capable of learning, and capable of admitting he was wrong.

That doesn’t mean he got everything right in the new video, but — again unlikely you — he has actually taken the car apart and examined it in detail. We have good reason to think that much of what he says is true. Not all of it, but certainly he is almost infinitely better informed on the subject than any of the Tesla hating Usual Suspects here, who merely copy and paste FUD that they see posted to forums for stock shorters!

Munro did not walk back on the bad quality, he just said the conclusion is a 30% gross profit on the high end model, and an 18% profit on the lower model assuming normal industry manufacturing efficiency, which Tesla certainly does not have…

Bro the base is profitable 10k off the car if you include paint job and rims

We can most definitely trust scottf200 because he kicked your sorry ass out of the GM Bolt forum for being a lying troll and shill.

There is no GM BOlt forum. There is a Chevy Bolt forum (which I am a mod of) and a GM-VOLT forum where scottf200 banned me in a hissy fit because he can’t debate rationally.

So, the trend is that you’re essentially unwelcome wherever you go. And it’s everyone else’s fault.

All because you bought a Bolt..

23k problem free miles and counting! What’s the highest mileage on a $35k Model 3? 😀
Or $40k Model 3? Or even $45k?

Highest documented miles on the Tesloop Tesla is 400,000 miles, 300K on the first battery, only due to fast charging multiple times every single day in desert heat of Nevada. Why limit it to just the cars built in the last year?

Under slightly more normal conditions show 7 percent range decrease after a quarter of a million miles, well over what the average car drives over a lifetime:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-400k-km-250k-mi-7-percent-battery-degradation/

Bjorn Nyland had both his Tesla batteries replaced under 100K miles, extrapolated that is 100% failure rate under 100k miles.

LOL!!! extrapolation failure is all yours. It is almost like you’ve never read anything on this website…..

https://insideevs.com/lets-look-at-tesla-model-s-x-battery-degradation/

https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/2-3.png

That is a great chart for range loss with mileage as the axis. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out on range loss over the years. From the strength of 90% of these Teslas on range, it will probably be age that is prime determinant in range loss. Which is a good thing because it doesn’t seem that time is kicking Tesla packs butt, either.
It looks like Tesla and GM have done their homework and their packs will last more than 12 years (with 80%+ remaining) for the vast majority of owners. Nissan, not so good.


Highest documented miles on the Tesloop Tesla is 400,000 miles, 300K on the first battery”

I thought that car had 2 battery replacement already. maybe I remembered wrong.

Yes, the 400,000 one had two replacements, but another one is at 300,000 with original battery.

Not sure, but my Tesla Model S is WAY more fun to drive. Haven’t had any issues with it in 44k miles, either. You could’ve gotten way more car for your $ had you done a little more research and been a little more patient. But hey, to each their own, and at the end of the day, you and I are on the same team. (That’s what I keep trying to remind you)

Uh oh, he broke out the emergency fallback “fanbois” (boy?) term. We’ve officially entered into the ‘Label Zone.’

Are you kidding? Elon said it himself on Twitter:

“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.”

ding ding ding… Flow is not smooth right now, they are up and down drastically each day… When they get to a Model 3 every 53 seconds profit will be a reality.

David, It does not need to be 53 seconds, just because that’s what a F150 rate is! It just needs to be consistent, smooth, without surprises!

Would the F150 become unprofitable at 54 Seconds? 55 Seconds? A minute?

At what % of reduced demand will Ford discover they fell behind the EV Adoption curve, have TOO Much inventory, and have to slow down the line by one full shift, on the F150 Line, taking that 53 seconds average down to 70 seconds, or 90 seconds, or 106 Seconds?

Funny how you completely focus in on the target rate part of the quote, and then NEVER FIGURE OUT that Elon is yet again confirming the delivery of the $35K version of the Model 3….

Where? There is no 35K Model 3… I saw that at the unveil, and they quoted with 7500 tax credit? I saw it on the big screen? but no reality…

“…3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla…”

Thanks for proving my point about you folk’s intentional blindness. It is right in the post I was responding to. Confirmation yet again that Tesla will be shipping the $35K Model 3, and you nutters can’t even see it when it is right in front of your noses. The denial runs deep in you folks.

Can’t wait to here you double down on your willful blindness and denial. Here’s your rope….

I think everyone is on the same page about the *potential* for the $35K Model 3 being profitable down the road. Similarly, there is no question that Elon says it *will* be coming. Elon says a lot of things. A lot of things, indeed. The question is whether Tesla can make it profitably now. And the answer is likely “no,” judging by the tweet above.

David, Watch Again!
$35,000.00 WITHOUT a Tax Credit!

Anyone that gets that car With Any Tax Credits, in the USA, will be better off than Elon Promised, but Worse Off than they figured!

The problem has always been, people “Figured” on getting the $35,000 Model 3, and Still Getting the Full $7,500 Tax Credits, to kind of Snag themselves a Tesla for $27,500!

Go watch the reveal… The say the car will be 35K – the 7500, so yes 27,500 is what many people were expecting, but Elon screwed that all up…. Lots of reservations holders are not bailing on the model 3.

Yeah, he totally screwed up: he failed to predict that there would be so many reservations — along with unwavering S+X demand — that no matter how well they ramped, there was never any chance of more than a fraction of reservation holders getting the full tax credit…

David “green” – You write 2 sentences and manage to make 2 fatal errors. And not even the intellectual honesty to just say “my bad, I got that wrong” for either error.

Very funny! Keep up the comedy show.

I read somewhere 1 or 2 cars have been reserved by customers in Europe and Asia.
Non Premium interior has not been seen yet.
Standard Range is a LOT cheaper.
Almost nobody ever sat in a Model 3.

All those points keep my reservation a reservation.

Hauer, Smart plan, based on solid reality, and a decent memory and understanding!

I would consider the Performance Model 3. I would not consider an S for many reasons, and I do not want a used S either.

Performance Model 3 with long range battery and PUP is about $64k. That’s substantially cheaper than the lowest S.

Stuff the Model S has that I don’t want, and therefore don’t want to pay for:
– Autopilot
– Power gates
– Driver binnacle display
– Aluminum frame, easy to total and therefore high insurance premium
– Motorized sunroof

Stuff the Model 3 has that I can’t get in the Model S:
– Better handling
– Non-air suspension, therefore less prone to breaking
– Non-motorized gimmick door handles, therefore less prone to frustration and repairs
– Landscape screen in easier position to touch (I can curl my finger behind it to more easily anchor it)
– Better center console (in part due to screen orientation, I freaking love the Model 3 console)
– Faster charging (in terms of miles per hour)
– Cheaper to operate (lower charging costs, I don’t routinely Supercharge)
– (for now) MUCH prettier interface, I hate the color / 3D skeuomorphic icons on the S
– All glass roof

Yes, the Model 3 uses energy much more efficiently than the model S. If I were picking between the two, I’d get the Model 3 based on that alone.

Not faster AC charging on the 3. 20 kW charging is the one item that pushes me towards a used S. AC charging is often more important.

And we have no way of knowing if a future Model 3 might get Dual AC Chargers, too!

Model S offered Dual (10 kW x 2) chargers, for a while, when there were few Superchargers, but does not anymore, now that they have nearly covered the USA and much of Western Europe, and a good part of China!

“It would be a bit concerning if out of the 450 – 500k pre–orders, after delivering 50k they have almost cleared the backlog except for the basic version which they are not sure will be profitable.”

They have only been delivering up-optioned versions in the US and Canada and the backlog is about two more months across the long-range models. That’s about 30-40k more sales from here or about 80-90k total. If the US/Canada is about 40% of their market, that implies 225k sales of the long range versions worldwide. If the short range version sells about as well, that makes it 450k.

But I didn’t need to do the math because Tesla already said that they had 420k reservations just a few weeks ago. What would be an unconcerning number for US/Canadian sales of the long range version in your view?

Well if the basic model is still 6 – 9 months away, I would be hoping for at least 6 months of 5k per week, so 130k but then the leadtime would not be 1 month.

Only the performance version has a 1-3 lead time and only in the US. The non-performance version has a 2-4 month lead time. International deliveries probably start in Q4.

True, for all the talk about endless backlog, 1-3 months for any LR Model 3 isn’t really a lot. That’s not too far from how quickly you can get a Model S, or X.

Yep, I configured a Performance 3 for pure kicks, and it gave me the same 1-3 month time frame. So I could get a Model 3 faster than probably tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of people who forked over $1k 2 years ago and stood in line for hours.
They must feel great.

Weren’t you following Tesla with S and X? They did the same thing. This is nothing new, completely expected of Tesla. What is surprising is standard LR model having such low lead time, but even that’s not that surprising.

It’s in every bodies best interest (Tesla, buyers, investors, world) for Tesla to become as profitable as possible as quickly as possible. This is how they do it. BTW, you have a long history of negativity on all kinds of b.s. issues.

So why don’t you learn from your Bolt mistake and simply buy the Model 3 then??

But if you like that model, and they don’t, either due to price sensitivity, or extreme performance that they are afraid of, what’s the problem?

Tesla is trying to Stuff as Many Model 3’s into the USA market as fast as possible, but if people refuse to get the Long Range + Premium Upgrades, due to cost, then may well be that International Markets come sooner.

I don’t really understand the strategy. Why didn’t they send more to Canada/internationally and preserve the tax credit for another whole quarter? Now the tax credit clock is running so it makes sense to prioritize US buyers, but not before. Every step of the way the Model 3 ramp seems really haphazard.

nick: “It would be a bit concerning if out of the 450 – 500k pre–orders, after delivering 50k they have almost cleared the backlog”

Of the 450-500k let’s assume that 300k were in North America and 150k rest of the world.
The models they are selling now are twice as expensive as the base model. They already sold 50k of them and by delivery date (another 1-2 months) they’ll probably sell another 50k. That makes about 30% of the total number of reservations skewed towards the premium segment. Nothing concerning here, the behavior is typical for a demand curve.

They’ve only sold 24,367 this is the website for reference.

They had 11,000 cars in transit three weeks ago. We can safely assume they’ve been delivered.

The Plug-in Sales Scorecard is US only, and doesn’t include Canada sales. 24K is NOT the only number of Model 3’s that Tesla has sold. And you also left out 2017 US sales. You keep repeating this falsehood. Stop already.

30% of the orders came from China.

That pre-order number includes international (beyond Canada) also. Still it does strongly suggest that the $35k model is what a majority of the people who pre-ordered are looking for. How many will cancel when they realize that they can only get half or less of the tax credit?

Does the model S still get free supercharging, I thought it was down to 400 kwh/yr. free

Not all the 450k pre-orders are from US. I would say 1/3 from US. 40k delivered. 110k US still on the book. Among them 60k will go with AWD, long range, performance, 50k waiting for other configurations, especially standard range. The thing is this Model 3 is truly amazing, if every Model 3 sells another 2 cars, that will lead to another 200k demand from US alone. Once tax rebate and gasoline saving are considered, there is a total of $18,000 saving on the Model 3, makes it very affordable. US customers buys 16,000,000 vehicles a year, many of them are potential Model 3 buyers, they just don’t know how great the car is. Almost everyone who tested my Model 3 said this will be their next car. This car performs better than a BMW M3, but true cost is comparable with a loaded Camry. This is definitely the future.

Some people think next year tax rebate is gone, so no more demand. That’s not true. Next year Tesla will start to sell loaded Model 3 to EU and China, that demand will be more than 500,000 a year. Both of those regions have more expensive gasolines.

Yes,what makes the 3 truly affordable is that it is an AV at night and drives around making you money,in fact Tesla sends you a payment, remarkable.

I think the fact that they opened the configurator to all of North America, and did not sell 6 months worth of cars in the first week is a bit of a red flag. It means that the pent up demand is not as high for the 3 available configurations as I would have assumed. I think this goes back into the fact that some in the last month have ordered and received their cars in less then 10 days tells me Tesla has some unsold inventory laying around. There is not enough information to form any solid conclusions yet, but what is clear is that Tesla has been building some white tails (unsold units) and is still “batch building”, and not actually “building to order”.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

“tells me Tesla has some unsold inventory laying around.”

Wasn’t there an article on how they have a stockpile of them in parking lots?

For those awaiting shipment, yes. 😉 The cars will often sit for a few days to a week or two. Not too long.

Having said that, I’m still waiting on the SR model. Don’t expect to get the 35k base… expect to pay about 40k.

Would order today if Tesla would make it available and I know I’m not the only one. But I get Tesla’s desire to plow through the higher margin cars first.

Because of tax credit, LR model is about $37.5K. Ordering LR model now may turn out to be cheaper than ordering SR model unless you have early reservation. And even with reservation, I have my doubts if any tax credit will be available given that Tesla is always late.

Very true, unfortunately the base LR model also is not available (yet) 🙁 $49k is the current entry level model.

If the base LR without premium interior does indeed become available in early Q4… we might be able to make that work. Otherwise, even at a 50% rebate the SR model is better for us.

Article seems to suggest 4 to 6 months for base LR? Or is this with PUP?

“rear-wheel drive, long-range battery version of the Model 3 in the U.S. from a whopping 12 to 18 months to a new wait time of just four to six months”

Waiting for SR and tax credit is a gamble. Tesla’s always late, so there’s a chance that even some (or many) reservations holders won’t get any tax credit. They might push base LR during all tax credit period, and that could mean 50% tax credit on base LR and none for SR. Gamble away! 🙂

Wade, I know you follow the sales closely, at the end of Q2, there have been around 12.5K Model 3’s produced, but not sold, in the almost 3 weeks since the end of Q2 what percentage of these cars have found owners?

While I’ve gathered some data already, I haven’t completed monthly Tesla numbers yet. So too soon to predict with any precision.

In the last 4 – 5 days of the month, I’ll be focused solely on sales so I’ll have a better idea at that point. 🙂

I am very interested to see if the finished inventory goes up or down at the end of July, so far Tesla has built just under 7K Model 3’s in the first 17 days, of the month, I would assume that at least some of those will be delivered in addition to the other 12.5K that were already inventory. 15K deliveries for July should be realistic, and 20K possible.

“Wasn’t there an article on how they have a stockpile of them in parking lots?”

Yes, and an older article showing a dozen or so dusty Model 3’s sitting in an underground parking lot.

All of these have been seized upon by the Usual Suspects as the latest desperate attempts to prop up their ridiculous FUDster claims that demand for Tesla cars has suddenly collapsed. You’d hope that they would quit beating that one particular dead horse after all these years, but I guess it’s easier for them to just keep recycling the same worn out FUD than create something new. 🙄

In the real world, with more and more Model 3’s appearing on the roads, and with more and more new owners bragging about them to friends, co-workers and relatives, we can be sure that demand for Tesla cars is going in just one direction: UP!

Go Tesla!

Interest…is up for sure, but Demand is predicated on the $2,500 payment, and only that, now.

People buying a 50K+ car do not care about the $2500 deposit. If they have to worry about that skimpy deposit, they should not be buying the car.

This very site shows sales of the 3 for 2018 at 24,367.

No

The Burbank airport, new P are arriving.

I agree that it’s too early to tell, but I don’t think that you’re looking at all factors. I don’t think that opening up the configurator was every going to attract a lot of orders, because the 3 is a car that, for the most part, is already known by its current target market. The general public doesn’t know anything about it – in fact, just yesterday I had to correct a guy that said that all Tesla cars cost at least 100k. Opening up the configurator was just a way to squeeze a couple more months out of high-efficiency batch building before having to add more custom options, add a RHD version for European markets, move to standard range versions, etc. Given that North America is only 40-50% of Tesla’s market, they actually have many stops to pull out before hitting the bottom of their backlog. Now it’s possible that once this happens they are in trouble. It’s also possible that in the intervening time, a lot of 3’s on the road will raise public awareness and more people will be interested in the car that have up until now dismissed it out of hand. I can’t say which,… Read more »

The problem is those levers are costly and time consuming. It’s a big difference building and shipping a car in the North America where you might recover the cost plus profit in a couple of weeks. Versus building, shipping overseas, potentially some final assembly, etc.. and you recover the cost plus profit a month or two down the road.

god, you make it sound like exporting cars to foreign markets is some massive impossible undertaking. When in reality Tesla has been doing it for years, and the entire car industry does it every day, day after day.

Concern Troll is Concerned. News at 9.

Agree, with a couple ** , bulls and bears are both more curious about sustained demand then they are about peak demand. At Tesla’s current Model 3 production rate which is about 15K per month how long can demand in North America exceed supply? Remember we have 3 years of pent up demand and hype to fill first, and then we will see sustained demand. If demand is below 15K per month in 50% of Tesla’s market where are they going to unload cars when they smooth out production at 40K per month as Elon has guided? Bears feel most of the demand is for the 35K car, and that is looking very realistic, I would say 75% of the people interested in the Model 3 prefer that model, leaving 25% of the people to support the profitable models. The next question, is how many of the buyers will bail with the USA tax credit being reduced? Ontario? And higher tariffs in China? This is a very big chunk of the market that will be affected by expiring tax credits… Remember what happened to Tesla sales in Hong Kong with expiring tax credits? Anyway, time will reveal all things, so… Read more »
First of all the entry level has to be profitable. With both a German and North American teardown indicating exactly Tesla’s percentages, it is as good of an indicator as any that they will be. As indicated above, they have followed the same launch of the Model S, Model X, and now the model 3 which makes the most sense. I still recall Musk’s statement about what they were going to do when they had their first quarter of bleeding money. He responded that they were going to spend staggering amounts of money. And yes that puts a company at risk, and yes it is a model of growth that is too risky for most, but if they are successful they change the world. Look at the impact they have had already on pushing the industry to follow. Now what we can glean from this is that they won’t be stuck selling the entry-level forever. They already have plans for launching the Model Y. Yes, it will be late, and yes, they will introduce it exactly to the textbook of selling the high-profit margin models first. Every indicator shows there is at least 200K of high-profit Model 3 worldwide, and… Read more »

Ok, so lets look closely, the German teardown did not have details about the build, or spec of that 28K estimate. Same for Munro, no specific details, to see it just seemed Munro was trying to peak interest in his report, you know selling reports is his business. Sandy Munro will be on Autoline After Hours on August 16th, it will be fun to see if he goes into more detail about his findings. Lets wait for the information before we get too far down the road of assumptions.

There is only one version of the Model 3 available to tear down. It is the Model 3 LR with Premium package.

Both mention those details. This is just more of the intentional ignorance you spread, because you also know exactly what version and spec they tore down.

Just stop the bullpucky. Enough already. Why do you insist on embarrassing yourself on an hourly basis?

Do you know that the Model 3 LR with Premium package is the only car that has been available until recently? Yes or No. Simple honesty check.

The long term is the big question. What will people compare it to when there’s no tax credit? To a Camry, or to an A4? When people see one in real life, will they want one or not? Will the largely EV ignorant public come around or continue to ignore? Nobody knows any of these things. Right now the 3 has enough faithful around the world to soak up demand, so it’s got a couple of years to develop mass appeal. Nobody knows if any car will do that. After all, how much money did Pontiac pour into the Aztek?

After driving the Tesla Model 3 for a few months, I can not find one single reason why people would buy BMW Mercedes instead. It’s better in every way. So the loaded Model 3 should take all the BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Cardiac market. It’s a big market.

On the Camry Accord front, if ICE cars don’t take gasoline/diesel, then they have a small chance to compete with Tesla. Even in that case, they can’t compete in the long run. The standard range Model 3 costs $35k, saves $10,000 in gasoline in 10 years. Why would anyone buy a gasoline car? If you drive the Model 3 once, you will know this car is the future. There is no comparison.

Meanwhile, Model 3’s continue to get better every week.

“I think this goes back into the fact that some in the last month have ordered and received their cars in less then 10 days tells me Tesla has some unsold inventory laying around.”

Or it could just mean that a car which was put into production to be a demo or service loaner, happened to be an exact match for a car someone ordered, so was diverted from being shipped to the store or service center to being shipped to the customer.

Or to put it more succinctly: Anecdotal evidence is rarely conclusive.

Or someone placed an order that matched a batch they were about to produce for the next couple of days, so they added it to the batch and turned it right away. There are plenty of possibilities the preclude 3’s just sitting around.

They have only opened the configurator for two of the numerous countries in North America. Very far from “all of North America”.

Wait a minute… what? How many countries do you think there are in North America?

The “North American Market” is a bit of auto industry inside jargon to mean the Canadian and US market where Canada and the US have treaties unifying most of their automobile safety and emissions regulations. These cars are built to what is called the “NAS” spec (North American Specification) which is common to only Canada and the US.

It sounds wrong to exclude the rest of the countries in North America from the North American Market, but that’s how the industry has decided to use the term North America.

Most of us figured they had a lot of Model 3′ waiting and ready to deliver in July, and they even said something like “10,000 in transit”, but “In Transit” for Model 3, does not include being on a Ship, only Trucks or Trains, and Lots; so, sure, July will be the start of a Burst of Deliveries!

Yes, why has the delivery burst not materialized?

I’m not sure this is so surprising. There are only so many people who can even afford a $50k+ car, let alone justify buying one. A lot of people must have wanted the base model.

“if you order Tesla Model 3 with rear-wheel drive or the Performance version with the same drivetrain, featuring the long-range battery and the premium interior, you could see wait times as short as one month.
If you order the Model 3 RWD, either the performance version with LR battery and a premium interior, or the standard battery version…etc.

I mean the standard version as you can only get the LR battery at this time.

F’in Tesla! Had they announced this 2 months ago, I would’ve got the Tesla instead of Bolt! Oh well, I guess I’ll wait and see what comes down the road.

4-6 months for base LR model 3 is cutting it close because of full tax credit expiring end of this year. I wonder if they allow contingency that if the car is not delivered by Dec.31 that one does not have to buy it and gets all the deposit back (even the $2000). I think such clause will spur lot more sales as it removes the uncertainty.

I can’t imagine that Tesla would make any such promise.

Contrariwise, as we have seen elsewhere (Hong Kong, Ontario), as the end of a tax credit comes nigh, there is a sudden flurry of new orders to get in under the wire before it expires.

(Yes, that’s mixing metaphors. #GrammarNazi 😉 )

Tax credit only applies to deliveries, not the order date. 50% chance that order may not result in full tax credit is quite a gamble.

But you’re right that Tesla isn’t likely to promise delivery date, which is unfortunate. I was wishing they could make an exception just this one time to spur as much sales as possible.

Only way to guarantee delivery date is to take an inventory car. And since the usual suspects all say demand is horrible and they can’t sell any of them, it should be easy to pick up an inventory car.

Unless of course they are wrong and Tesla is selling every car they possibly can as fast as they can because demand is so high that they basically have the equivalent of empty car dealerships with no cars to sell.

Let’s check….

Every CPO/Inventory website I checked all show zero inventory cars of any model available in the US (S, X, or 3). Go figure!

My email lit up with inventory cars in June…. Tesla was pushing hard to sell their service loaners, and test drive cars like they do every qtr….

And they are all gone. Every single one of them. Because the demand was there to sell every single last one of them, just like I said.

What is your point? That if Tesla dares email inventory cars to people who have subscribed to getting their latest info on inventory cars, that somehow selling out of every single last one doesn’t count as demand?

They have lots of cars available just use Google.

We ordered 6/27 with a “Sep – Nov” delivery estimate. LR, Red, PUP

Now scheduled to take delivery on Saturday.

Apparently the dual motor but not performance are not any faster. My window is still Sep to Nov.

We have to remember they’re also forcing the PUP on you at this point…Short of an one-two punch of the LR & PUP…

I thought there was over 200,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 but Tesla has delivered 50,000. Why would Tesla deliver a new order in a month with so many customers still on waiting list for months now?

There were over 400k reservations. It appears that most of the Americans remaining on that list want the $35k M3. Tesla doesn’t want to sell that version of the car, likely because it’s not profitable. They also don’t want to deal with the long lead times of international sales. So, they’ve opened ordering to anyone willing to spend $50k+.

Because the shortened delivery window is only for a subset of the trim/option levels and not everyone wants those trim/options.

That subset is 75% of the total model 3 configs

I think this move is completely about margin, Tesla is making huge margins on the Model 3 Performance option and the maxed out RWD option. Musk promised Tesla would be profitable in Q3 if they ship exclusively performance cars and maxed our RWD cars they stand to make the most. If your are like most people these days and need instant gratification, you say “Hey at least I know I’ll get my $7500 tax credit, I get the performance model, and I get the car now. Win-Win-Win!” Tesla is like, “SHOW ME THE MONEY!”

In-order to continue, so Tesla can make more cars like the Model 3 and Model Y they have to keep the shareholders happy. Showing 1-2 quarters of profit before they go back into the red is a must. This will help Tesla improve their credit rating and bump stock prices.

The tracking spreadsheet reports that the number waiting for both a VIN and delivery are declining. That indicates that, at least among users of that spreadsheet, orders are coming in more slowly than cars are being delivered. The one exception was a burst around the time the order book was opened to all reservation holders. It also shows that this burst created a backlog which has not yet been fully cleared.

You have to think that the story left out a part, that is the time from order to production is only once the reservation receives the go-ahead from Tesla that it is their turn to place their actual order. Impossible that Tesla has cleared the backlog of ~450k, the story does not make that clear…