Tesla Production And Deliveries Graphed Through Q1 2018

APR 3 2018 BY MARK KANE 30

Tesla just reported production and deliveries number for the first quarter of 2018 – see full report here.

Tesla Roadster, excluded from the global deliveries stats

Production hit an all-time high of 34,494 (up 35.7% year-over-year):

  • Model S + Model X: 24,728
  • Model 3: 9,766

Deliveries at 29,980 (±0.5%) were on par with the previous quarter (but up 20% year-over-year):

  • Model S: 11,730
  • Model X: 10,070
  • Model 3: 8,180

Here is what we see when we compare production and deliveries:

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – through March 2018

Tesla Model S/X/3 Production (quarterly) – through March 2018

Tesla relied on sales in the US for 60% of its global volume:

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – through March 2018

The cumulative sales number is now around 180,000 in the U.S., so just one quarter left to hit 200,000, which will trigger the federal tax credit limit.

Globally, Tesla delivered nearly 320,000 electric cars to date.

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – through March 2018

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30 Comments on "Tesla Production And Deliveries Graphed Through Q1 2018"

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Great charts

Tesla will reach the 200,000 sales milestone in Q2 2018.

I predict 199,999 USA sales in Q2 and > 200,000 in Q3 😉 — Canada and Europe want a lot of cars in QA 😉

A similar prediction for GM but only to Canada.

Tesla deliveries in the US in Q2 2018:

• 5,000+ Tesla Model S
• 5,000+ Tesla Model X
• 32,000+ Tesla Model 3

I disagree, they aren’t going to deprive their customers of $550M in tax credits that they can get by hitting 200,000 US deliveries only after the M3 has ramped up to 5000/wk.

They can shove a lot of product into Canada, Europe (MS/MX) and the pipeline (factory lot, trucks, delivery centers). Shifting deliveries into Q3 will slightly impact Q2 financial statements but they aren’t sales limited, they are production limited, all Wall Street is focused on is production and average selling price.

production graph wrong
34,494

Yes, there’s an error. We informed Mark. Thank you.

Thanks, updated.

If all goes according to plan, then it’s highly likely that these two Milestones will be achieved:

• the delivery of the 500,000th EV in Q4 2018;
• the delivery of the 1,000,000th EV in Q4 2019.

It’s highly unlikely that things go according to that plan.

The reason for your comment is that you don’t like that plan, I presume?

By this estimation of total vehicles delivered in the US vs outside the US, they’re right around 175k units. So assuming they build around 60,000 cars next quarter (25k S/X and 35k* 3) and deliver roughly half to the US, they’re going to cross the 200k units line in June.

They can try shipping more 3s to Canada, but I cant imagine the homologation process is ready for Europe by the end of this quarter. Or they can hold back on 5,000 or so deliveries (where are they going to put that many cars?) until July 1.

* = average 3,500 a week throughout the quarter with 10 production weeks in quarter, 3 weeks of shutdown time for equipment retooling

Yes, the signs point pretty strongly to Tesla passing the 200,000 milestone for domestic (U.S.) deliveries in the 2nd quarter this year. So the full Federal tax credit should last through the end of this year, then it will drop to half at the beginning of next year.

You have to take some pretty extreme assumptions to conclude that Tesla can put off crossing the 200,000 threshold in Q3.

Yep, they need to demonstrate continued progress with the Model 3 ramp meaning 15-20,000 as a minimum which will use up most of the balance. They would then have to pretty much stop all US deliveries for S+X for an entire quarter. Mind you, they did send out a massive batch of M3 invites to Canada recently and did something odd with the delivery estimates for S+X earlier in the year so I have a feeling they are going to give it a try.

Highest priority is delivering a lot of Tesla Model 3 cars.

There is an enormously long waiting list for the Tesla Model 3.

And US customers will get them first.

That’s how I understand it will be done.

If they hit 200,000 deliveries in the US in Q2 the full US tax credit will only be through Q3.

They won’t deliver their 200,000th vehicle in Q2, they will gladly fill the pipeline towards the end of Q2 and not deliver #200,000 until July.

Buyers get an email to configure their car.

The cars for buyers from Europe have not been configured yet.

MGMark Kane, 2nd Graph chart: please correct it! You put Delivery numbers in the Production Graph!

I forwarded the message. Thank you for noticing!

Well I’m gonna predict that Model 3 will be in the top 20 for monthly sales of automobiles starting in September 2018.

It’s on the short list for sure.

these charts somehow mask the fact, that Model S and Model X sales are at best on a plateau – in fact decreasing – since about 2 years. Especially for the model S its the weakest quarter since Q1 2014 (!) according to my records, except Q2 2017, which was slightly lower.
This comes despite Tesla started to aggressively discounting at the end of each quarter (see the deteriorating margins).

Tesla Model S and X are doing better than other vehicles in there price categories the BMW, Mercedes, Porsche etc. There both beautiful vehicles but there not competing against the low or mid price market.

It has been more-or-less clear for many months, if not a year or more, that sales for the Model S have indeed plateaued. As you say, Tesla would not have offered sales incentives (such as the reduced-priced “Model S60” which was merely an electronically limited S75) if sales had not plateaued. I don’t know that Model X sales have plateaued. If so, then that must have happened quite recently. It hasn’t been that many months since MX sales were growing surprisingly fast. But overall, I think it’s clear why Tesla is concentrating so much on Model 3 production and deliveries. That’s where Tesla’s sales growth is! Demand for the MS seems to be about maxed out, at least until Tesla does a major refresh of the model. There are probably still a few markets, such as Eastern Europe, India, and some places in Asia, where Tesla can expand its market for the MS and MX. But Tesla is definitely into diminishing returns there. All the most lucrative markets are already being served, and it’s only the more marginal ones where there’s still room to expand. A wild card is China. If Tesla can jump through enough hoops, it may be… Read more »

I don’t think it is entirely surprising that S sales have plateaued. There aren’t an unlimited amount of people willing or able to spend $70k to $100k for a car.
That is why the 3 is so vital to Tesla’s future. There are a lot more people ready, willing and able to buy a $40k car than there are for a $70k car.
I am still worried that Tesla will run out of funds before they run out of obstacles, but given the numbers we are seeing here, the chances look a bit better that Tesla will move past this money crunch that they are in.
This is kind of like the Max Q stage of a Falcon Launch, once you get through it your know the worst stress is behind you.

LMAO, serial anti-Tesla troll gagme tries to downplay Tesla’s accomplishment again.

Well hopefully you have liquidated all your assets and put them into shorting Tesla so you can lose your ass(ets).

Meanwhile, Tesla has gone big into the midrange vehicle market with the most compelling PEV in that category so they continue to diversify.

With February’s 28 days, Q1 has 2 lesser days than Q4 and there is no big holiday like Thanksgiving, Christmas and Pre-New Year purchases.

Still Tesla managed to beat the Q4 sales in Q1 and that’s really great. Many Model-3’s that were produced in last few weeks of March will be in transit. Hope they hit the 2,500 / week in April and at least 4,000 / week in July.

Yes, Jan/Feb are traditionally the worst months for EV sales, so a big Q1 is really, really big!

Q1 2017 was >12% bigger for Model S as well as Model X.
–> declining demand YoY despite heavy discounting.

Global Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X deliveries will both increase in the next 3 quarters. Because Tesla will eat marketshare from other car manufacturers in those 2 segments.