Tesla Posts Q1 2018 Results – Model 3 Production Hits 2,270 / Week

MAY 2 2018 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 61

Tesla has just released its Q1 2018 earnings and financial reports.

Among the highlights is information on Model 3 production, updates on the Tesla Supercharger network, record global sales and so much more.

Tesla Q1 2018 Conference Call Overload

Related – Tesla Posts Q4 Earnings, Record Revenue On Record Deliveries, Losses Continue

Looking Back – Tesla Q4 Conference Call In Its Entirety – Video

2018 will surely be a delivery record year for Tesla, now that Model 3 volume and sales are increasing quite rapidly.  In fact, Tesla previously confirmed its first quarter 2018 deliveries:

  • 29,980 vehicles in total
  • 11,730 Model S
  • 10,070 Model X
  • 8,180 Model 3

The hot topic item is the Model 3. In regards to that, Tesla stated:

“We made significant progress on the Model 3 ramp in the second half of Q1, and the momentum continued into early Q2.”

Tesla Model 3 Info From Q1 Release

Prior to a planned shutdown in mid-April to further increase production, we produced more than 2,000 Model 3 vehicles for three straight weeks,and we hit 2,270 in the last of those weeks. Even at this stage of the ramp, Model 3 is already on the cusp of becoming the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan in the US, and our deliveries continue to increase.

Model 3 Reservations

Model 3 net reservations, including configured orders that had not yet been delivered, continued to exceed 450,000 at the end of Q1 even though fewer than 20 stores worldwide had Model 3 on display. We are planning to deploy significantly more Model 3 vehicles in our stores in Q2 this year.

Model 3 Production Target & Factory Downtime

We continue to target Model 3 production of approximately 5,000 per week in about two months, although our prior experience has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time because of the exponential nature of the ramp. In order to achieve this production rate, we plan to take additional days of downtime during Q2, just like we did in Q1. We have already done this several times during the Model 3 ramp, including once in the third week of April to fix several small, known constraints, enabling higher levels of output. Just before taking this latest downtime, we produced 2,270 Model 3 and 2,024 Model S and Model X vehicles in the prior seven days, which was a new record for us. Furthermore, in the just over two weeks between the beginning of April and the planned downtime, we had produced 4,750 Model 3 vehicles, which was already about half the production of the entire prior quarter.

After achieving a production rate of 5,000 per week, we will begin offering new options such as all-wheel-drive and the base model with a standard-sized battery pack.

Our Scorecard details Tesla sales in the U.S. If those figures are of particular interest to you, then check them out here.

Moving on to financials, expectations leading up to the official announcement were that Tesla was expected to report an adjusted loss of $3.26 a share on revenue of $3.142 billion in the quarter.

Tesla’s actual reported results are:

  • Revenue of ~$3.41 billion
  • Loss of $4.19 per share (GAAP)
  • Loss of $3.35 per share (non GAAP)
  • Net loss of $784.6 million

The automaker reports $2.67 billion in cash at end of Q1, down from $3.37 billion at end of 2017.

Tesla Supercharger Info

Last quarter, we opened 77 new Supercharger locations for a total of 1,205 Supercharger stations and more than 9,300 stalls worldwide. Most of the growth is currently focused on North America to support the initial Model 3 rollout. Nevertheless, in Europe, we already operate about 400 Supercharger stations.

***Post is updated in realtime. Check back/refresh for additional information

More details from Tesla Q1 conference call

Full release from Tesla posted below:

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61 Comments on "Tesla Posts Q1 2018 Results – Model 3 Production Hits 2,270 / Week"

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Get Real
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Get Real

Sounds about right as things are progressing forward but it won’t stop the Seeking Liars trolls here like Trolltft or ClownCIE from desperately trying to spin it into a negative to support their losing short positions.

agzand
Guest
agzand

Well, you are right, if you forget that they lost $26,100 per car sold.

Recoil
Guest
Recoil

Or to put it another way based on margins of around 15% (I know the margins are closer to 20% but I’ll be conservative) they made around $13,000 per car which was re invested into increasing production of the model 3 and the continued expansion of the gigafactory and supercharging/destination charging stations.

If Tesla stopped expanding the model 3 line, reinvesting in it charging network, continued expansion of its gigafactory and massive investment in R&D on its semi, model y, batteries and roadster they could have easily surpassed 250 Million in profit.

Then again if you’re a short this is probably what you don’t want to hear beacause as they get over production hell and more cars are sold along with new lines for the semi and model Y coming on line the stock will rise and your shorts will get called.

Anyways you sound as wise and base your findings as the same people that said the volt costs GM 100k+ per car.

mx9
Guest
mx9

You can always tell the financial illiterate when they say Tesla “Burned Cash XXX”. Because that “burn” went into salaries of some of the smartest people around and expansion of factories, into hard assets.

Note: That they have NEVER mentioned Tesla’s geometric growth in plant and equipment in the last 6 years.

Ziv
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Ziv

I would be a lot more optimistic about Tesla’s future if they would slow down the spending on semis and other tangential operations, while concentrating on getting to the point where they aren’t spending $250,000,000 more per month than their revenue stream. They can easily go to the well and get another round of bonds, but if they were to need another sale of bonds after that to stay afloat, the yield that they would have to pay for them would be pretty high.
I want to see the Y as soon as possible and that will take spending money, but it will also take Tesla staying healthy enough to keep innovating.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Tesla has been very clear that they plan to continue selling bundled leases as assets/securities. Those types of securities (similar to Fannie/Freddie securities) are priced primarily on the ability for the lease holder to pay their monthly payments on time.

Tesla owners tend to have higher incomes, are older, and are in general very good credit risks. Bonds will be very high demand and will cost Tesla very little

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla bashers never mention that Tesla’s assets are growing faster than it’s debt. That would be contrary to their agenda of posting FUD, contrary to their claims that Tesla is “losing” money.

agzand
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agzand

But asset valuations are subject to Tesla’s performance. In a distress situation these assets will be revalued at a fraction of their book value, while liabilities are constant.

agzand
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agzand

Investing in plant and equipment doesn’t translate directly to a loss. You should know your basic accounting before believing whatever you have heard. The depreciation on plant and equipment will show as a loss. Even if Tesla stops expanding, they will still have depreciation, so that won’t make a difference in profitability.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Absolutely right, Recoil! And well said.

I hafta wonder just what kind of person would vote this comment down, and what their motive is for doing so. The motive certainly doesn’t appear to be supporting EVs, that’s for sure!

Don Zenga
Guest
Don Zenga

Is that $26,100 the money you lost in short selling Tesla in the stock market.
Or is it $26,100 / week.

Here is the game plan for you to recover the lost money: Invest in a stock with the symbol: TSLA

Nix
Guest
Nix

agzand, you are using the same moronic math that led to claims that the Volt cost GM $100,000 per car to manufacture. Sadly you’ve failed to learn how ignorant claims like that are.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“…they lost $26,100 per car sold.”

Gosh then, Tesla had better stop selling cars so they’ll stop losing money! 🙄

I really can’t figure out why Tesla bashers keep using this type of ridiculous assertion. It is — as they say — “Not even wrong”. And so obviously so! Are any of the Gentle Readers here fooled by such obvious FUD? Frankly I find it insulting that Tesla bashers think anyone would be fooled by such bull pucky.

Tesla is spending money to invest in future growth. If you invest in your 401(k) retirement fund, do you call that “losing” money? Of course you don’t! And Tesla investing in future growth isn’t “losing” money, either.

And even if Tesla actually was losing money, it would be ridiculous to express that as losing $X per car. Tesla will get more income by ramping up production, not less, as the brain-dead FUD “losing $X per car” insinuates!

Another Euro point of view
Guest
Another Euro point of view

Well there is indeed a possibility for Tesla to become profitable but it is still rather fragile. The shareholder’s letter that was just distributed mentions that gross margin was still negative in Q1 for TM3 but expected to break even on Q2 and be positive in Q3 when production rate goes beyond 5k per week. It really now all depends in Tesla reaching that production rate and controlling its costs. Then if all goes well Tesla will be barely profitable and still a small player in automotive industry. Now, as Nix wrote below, the most important is for Tesla to continue to show to the world that there is high demand for EVs providing they have enough range, are not shaped like toasters and are fun to drive, so the show must go on.

mx9
Guest
mx9

Adding a third shift should help.

TeslaInvestors
Guest
TeslaInvestors

Wait till the short range, non-premium Model 3 goes on sale. Remember the lure of “best car ever for $35k” ? What will that do to model 3 margin if it is negative or near zero now?

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Troll-Investors continues his desperate and whiney FUD campaign despite repeatedly being wrong and taking it in the shorts!

Nix
Guest
Nix

2,270/week for even just 3 out of 4 weeks (6,800 units) would put the Model 3 ahead of all the small and midsize luxury cars sold in the US (based upon the latest numbers available from goodcarbadcar for March 2018)

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/04/small-and-midsize-luxury-car-sales-in-america-march-2018/

Even at just the estimated 3,875 for April, that would have been 8th place, out of around 40 small and medium luxury cars, putting them around the top 20%. Not too bad a way to enter a market sector in the first year of sales! Personally I see the story of Tesla beating ICE sales much more interesting than what it does compared to other EV’s. Hopefully strong Tesla sales will help bring up the whole EV sector, helping chew into ICE sales. And that’s the real goal.

agzand
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agzand

I hope they will succeed, I have investments that benefit from Tesla’s success, but any comparison is meaningless unless they achieve similar profitability to other carmakers. If you sell stuff cheap, people will buy it. The question is can they ever make money selling cars at these prices. They have lost $26,100 per car sold in Q1. The numbers just don’t work. I think they need to increase their prices by $20k across the board. Then at some point they might start making money. But how many sales they can make at that price is not clear.

LS
Guest
LS

> The numbers just don’t work.

The numbers don’t work because you don’t understand the numbers. That however is not the fault of the numbers.

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Isn’t it amazing that the trolls don’t (want to) understand that Tesla’s CapEx spending like the Giga is driving down their costs per unit as they scale and that is going to make base cars profitable and those lower costs (and excellent designs) are going to continue to give them a competitive advantage over the laggard OEMs.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

You’d never know from what the trolls post that Tesla will make more money by selling more cars, not “lose” money on every car sold, as they falsely claim!

Terawatt
Guest
Terawatt
Well, you’d never know that Tesla is operating at a loss from anything you post! And they do, in their own words. I find it amazing that some of you fanbois not only imagine Tesla could “easily” have made $250 million this quarter, but actually find that figure impressive, given the many billions of dollars (is it eight now?) they have burned through so far. (And cash burn is the normal phrasing, it isn’t a term meant to indicate the cash was wasted, but that you no longer have it, just like fuel burn.) You keep pretending that spending money is the *same* as making it. And while you’re at it, you accuse everyone who doesn’t sign on to “go Tesla” as their life motto of dishonesty! Of course Tesla spends a lot of money trying to improve the products, the manufacturing, and every other aspect of the company. You can label every cent as “investment” if it pleases you – just apply that same standard to every other company. That it becomes mathematically impossible for any company ever to “lose” money under this creative accounting is just a nice bonus. There is in fact no guarantee that the investments… Read more »
mx9
Guest
mx9

At some point there will be enough superchargers.
The gigafactory expansion will eventually meet demand.
The assembly lines will be sufficient to meet demand.

At some point the spending will fall under revenue.

Rob R
Guest
Rob R

I look forward to that happy day. Shareholders might even get a dividend. But that does not matter, because Elon’s mission (on earth) will be assured. Then onwards to Mars!

Nix
Guest
Nix

agz – You are making the same math mistake as the people who falsely claimed the Volt cost GM $100,000 dollars to build.

The M3 is estimated by analysts to generate 80-120B in revenue in the first 5 years of production. Redo your math the way car makers actually do the math. They calculate their margin over the planned lifetime of the generation. EVERY car maker, the first 1% of a brand new clean sheet design will not be profitable using your failed math. Which is why they don’t use that math. They calculate margin over the long term.

In fact, this is how EVERY company calculates profit on a product. When a clothing designer creates a new shirt design, they project how many will be sold at full retail, and at various levels of discounts, including closeouts below cost of production. The projected profit for the item is the sum of all the projected price points all with different margins. Looking at the lowest margin sales in the entire sales cycle, and then jumping to conclusions would be silly for shirts, and even sillier for complex products like cars.

agzand
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agzand

The numbers are not there to do the math. It remains to be seen what the margins are on Model 3. What they say they will achieve is not a given. Currently the more expensive Model 3 has negative margins. Will they be able to reduce costs enough to make the lower cost model profitable? I don’t know. Looks like other automakers cannot do it. If Tesla can do it then more power to them.

Nix
Guest
Nix

They just announced margins are projected in the 20’s later this year, and reaching to the 25-30 range once production is optimized. Sadly you are so focused on the short term that you’ve closed your mind.

We heard all the same BS with the Model S.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“The numbers just don’t work.”

That’s true, your kindergarten-level math, claiming that Tesla is “losing $X per car”, doesn’t work at all.

Try using at least third-grade accounting, taking note of the difference between the expenses and the profit margin from Tesla selling its cars, from Tesla’s expenses related to expanding production and future growth.

By your kindergarten-level math, there’s no way Amazon.com would have ever become profitable, and that’s the same path Tesla is following.

agzand
Guest
agzand

First of all you should be more respectful if you want to be taken seriously. They had $745 million decrease in cash in hand, $655 million capital expenditure, and borrowed $172 million. Now you do your third grade math and tell me how they made money from selling cars.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Sadly you are too ignorant to understand long term thinking. You are so short-sighted that you don’t understand that the Model 3 is estimated by 3rd parties to represent 80-120 Billion in revenues in the first generation alone. The numbers you are talking about are so small in comparison that they are meaningless.

mx9
Guest
mx9

Also, higher performance and profit margin cars are coming too.

Just_Chris
Guest
Just_Chris

This all looks pretty positive to me. I was worried that Tesla would have problems this year but this all looks ok. The 2 things I was worried about were either them not being able to get to any reasonable volumes in M3 production and then running out of money or them getting over excited and building bigger and bigger lines making heaps of cars but ending up in a loop where they couldn’t make enough money per car to cover their costs of their factory.

As much as people are critical about not hitting the early targets I think Tesla is pretty stable right now. My opinion is they’ll deliver progressively more cars until they are at about 10-15k per month with them selling about 6-7k per month by June. I don’t know when they start exporting in large numbers but that will cause another blip for a few months where the cars all end up on ships in the Atlantic and pacific.

asdfasdf
Guest
asdfasdf

Posting record quarter losses, double of the prior year, while revenue and production are rising is anything but positive.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

Gosh, you mean spending money to ramp up production much faster than Tesla ever has before, requires more money invested in growth than ever before? Who would have imagined such a thing? Hmmm, well, everyone who was actually paying attention, that’s who!

That’s only a “problem” for those who wrongly see investments as “losses”.

Someone out there
Guest
Someone out there

Where is the actual ramp though? They have been “ramping” for almost a year now but they only squeezed out a pathetic 3.8k model 3’s in April.
Tesla was supposed to be at 1000 cars/week exiting december, that was a lie.
Tesla was supposed to be at 2200 cars/week exiting Q1, that was clearly also a lie.
They are still not at 2500 cars/week despite all promises. Here’s my prediction: they will not be anywhere near 5000 cars/week exiting Q2. Another promise broken.

Nix
Guest
Nix

Where is the actual ramp? I guess you are too ignorant to read the EV Scorecard and understand that the Model 3 is selling DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF ANY OTHER PURE EV in the United States.

That’s where the ramp up is. What a silly whiner, trying to claim their numbers are “pathetic” when the nearest pure EV competitor hasn’t sold that many cars in the last 2 and a half months combined!!

What you claim is “pathetic” is actually more than their second closest pure EV competitor has sold in the US for THE ENTIRE YEAR of 2018 so far!!!

The only pathetic one is you.

LS
Guest
LS

The biggest risk to Tesla right now is the expiry of the tax incentives in the US. The cars are competitive without them, but people get wildly irrational about free money as we have seen in other jurisdictions when incentives were pulled. Hope there won’t be too much of an impact on sales.

arne-nl
Guest
arne-nl

And will expiry be a negative for Tesla? Being close to losing it anyways, the other electric car makers wouldn’t have any tax credit advantage against Tesla.

Don Zenga
Guest
Don Zenga

So the revenues has increased and the losses has decreased compared to estimates and even the cash burn is not as bad as told. And the shortsellers should have got their fingers burnt again.

Nice to see production hitting 2,200 + / week and they should be concentrating on selling in other markets so that the word spreads all over the World and that’s a fair thing, otherwise reservation holders in other countries will get upset.

Even Q2 may be in loss as gigafactory expands and will suck in some costs, however the rising sales should reduce the loss level.

When the AWD version launches, it should be interesting as the Model-3 will be offroading with the crossovers.

ModernMarvelFan
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ModernMarvelFan

11,730 Model S
10,070 Model X

My favorite Model S still dominate that ugly Model X in sales despite the Crossover fever that everyone is getting. I swear that so many people told me that Model X is going to dominate Model S in sales with how crossovers getting so popular. 3 years later, it still isn’t true.

Benz
Guest
Benz

“Once we hit the 5,000 per week milestone, we intend to incorporate our learnings to continue to increase output on our existing manufacturing lines beyond 5,000 units per week, and then in a capital efficient manner to add incremental capacity to ultimately get to a 10,000 unit weekly rate.”

“Ultimately”

I guess that will be in 2019?

TeslaInvestors
Guest
TeslaInvestors

3019 is more like it.
Just few days back, he tweeted “Tesla will be profitable in Q3 and Q4”. Now, even the blip of 2 quarters of profit is guarded by 5k a week run rate.
Take it how you may. But I see it as the 5K a week being pushed back further to “never”, and so will be the profitability.

stimpacker
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stimpacker

It’s only the shorts that harp on profitability.
Investors know what they’re getting into.
Their customers know what they’re buying.

I don’t have any Tesla stock position (nor plan to short term) but as a tech observer, I’d rather they plough money into a sustainable transportation future, i.e. all sorts of future projects that need capital investment upfront. Sure, a short term greedy CEO can just stop R&D now, offshore production to China for lower costs and watch the profits roll in. Sound familiar?

TeslaInvestors
Guest
TeslaInvestors

Ha ha! There are plenty of real scientists and hard working people working on real solutions for sustainabie transportation. Like, developing efficient public transport for a world with growing population. What’s Elon’s opinion on that matter? I guessed so. He is more interested in flying in his private G650ER to chase starlets in far flung parts of the world, and buying up mega mansions in Bel Air.

Now don’t get me started on the damages to the environment caused by the mining and processing of long range batteries. Sustainability isn’t quite Elon’s game, amigo.
Let me know when you have done the math on how many long range EVs can be produced with all the resources available in the world. You can check Moody’s recent report.

BTW, what does private space tourism do to the encironment? Wake me up when Elon focuses on battery powered rockets.

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Troll-Investors the Koch Roachs’ funded anti-EV and anti-Tesla troll at his finest!

Nix
Guest
Nix

“There are plenty of real scientists and hard working people working on real solutions for sustainabie transportation.”

Then why aren’t they heading up companies that are beating ICE luxury cars in their own sector, instead of Elon?

One of the points of civilian space travel is to begin the process of making it possible to start civilization on other planets in case we can’t save this one in time. Yes, you have to break a few eggs to make that omelet.

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

What Elon Musk is doing to promote sustainable energy and reduce use of fossil fuels: Selling Tesla Energy PowerWalls, PowerPacks, and solar panels… and of course, selling Tesla cars.

What TeslaInvestors is “doing” to promote energy and reduce use of fossil fuels: Sitting around and whining that Elon Musk isn’t doing more.

What a troll.

NIck
Guest
NIck

Spacex isnt a private toursim company – its lauches stuff into space!? rockets make little/no envoirmental impact they use clean burning fuels
There are plenty or resources being found for batteries (even current deisgn ones) – they just wernt profitable to look for before (eg a mega huge supply of rare elements has recently been found near Japan)

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

@TeslaInvestors

So how much money have you lost on shorting Tesla stock, hmmm?

I hope it’s quite a lot, as a fine for all the Tesla bashing FUD you post here.

arne-nl
Guest
arne-nl

“Tesla will be profitable in Q3 and Q4”

As usual, twisting his words. He never said *will*

Ron M
Guest
Ron M

Tesla may only have sold 3,875 M3’s but they manufacturer over 8,000 M3’s. You’ll see TM3’s in Tesla stores across the country this month. Possibly shipping to some overseas Tesla stores also.

Tesla sold $400 million worth of Power Packs and Power Walls this quarter. Tesla’s only problem is being able to build enough cars and batteries to meet the demand. I’m sure other manufacturers wish they had that kind of problem.
How many cars sit on dealer lots for over a month waiting for a buyer.

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

And how many laggard OEMs are shutting down production of models they can’t sell profitably or pulling out of huge markets like the EU?

Nix
Guest
Nix

“How many cars sit on dealer lots for over a month waiting for a buyer.”

Well, traditionally the average time on the lot for cars is 60 days, so well over half the cars by definition would spend well over 30 days waiting for a buyer. With 17 million cars sold in the US, it is likely that 10 billion cars sold in the US could have sat for over a month waiting for a buyer.

But there seems to be a double standard for Tesla, where if they don’t deliver every single car the same week it came off the line, some folks lose their heads.

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

Let me fix that for you Nix,:
,the self -serving shorter trolls lose their heads.
And they will continue to lose their asses gambling on Tesla short positions.

@Stanford
Guest
@Stanford

Well that’s kind of a big problem, not being able to build fast enough to sell enough to make money. That’s always been their issue with the 3. “Cant build them fast enough” is good because it means people want them, but it doesn’t matter a lick if 10,000,000 people want to buy the car if only a small number of them can.

They seem to be working through this, still not sure where their true break even and run point is and how close they are to hitting it.

wavelet
Guest
wavelet

So the 5000/wk Model 3 goal production is being further postponed, to July.
And it’s all crickets re the overall sales goal for the year.
For those who forgot, the last published plan of record was 500K cars sold in 2018 (over all models & regions).
Anything above 200K now looks iffy, and 250K the absolute best-case (assuming 100K model S/X sold).

For a public company, doing 50% less than its announced plans would generally cause stock to crash and numerous shareholder lawsuits. It’ll be interesting how this develops.
It’s also very unclear how Tesla expects to become cash flow positive and profitable in Q2 and Q3 given those numbers (SolarCity and the powerwalls won’t save the day), AND not need to raise outside cash.
The evasion of the earning call Q re how many Model 3 reservation holders are actually converting to sales is also very worrying.

NIck
Guest
NIck

I think it just shows how hard (and costly) it is startng a new Car Manf company from scratch(and why i doesnt happen ) – They even have to make there own battery factory, Charging/fuel stations and Dealer shops – which ford and GM etc didnt do – which also explains why these established companies are slow to change, and take no risks on anything “new” – too hard – just keep making the same stuff with minor increments and taking the salary…

Tyler Durden
Guest
Tyler Durden

The premium mid-sized sedan chart does not parallel the numbers we are seeing on carsalesbase.com. Where was the posted chart pulled from?

MTN Ranger
Guest
MTN Ranger

It really should be compact entry luxury cars – which includes BMW 3, Audi A3, Mercedes C Class, etc.

Nix
Guest
Nix

The numbers match goodcarbadcar’s numbers for the models listed. The most recent reports on carsalesbase for luxury cars are 2017 numbers, with the reports written in late January. They are missing 66% of the data on that chart. *shrug*