Tesla Model Y Production & Sales Expected To Far Outpace Model 3

FEB 1 2019 BY MARK KANE 33

Tesla Model Y is coming – volume production within two years

Tesla announced in its Q4 report that this year it will start tooling for Model Y production. The upcoming SUV will be most likely produced at the Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, as there is not much space left at the Tesla Factory in Fremont, we guess.

It’s expected that the car should be unveiled within months. There is no official hint, but beta prototypes soon probably appear on the roads soon. We are probably no more than a year from the production launch, especially since volume production is to be reached by the end of 2020.

“Additionally, this year we will start tooling for Model Y to achieve volume production by the end of 2020, most likely at Gigafactory 1.”

According to Tesla, the Model Y will share a platform with Model 3 and because of that, about 75% of components will be the same.

It’s a great indicator for several things:

  • development cost will be much lower
  • production line cost for Model Y should be substantially lower
  • margins for both cars will be higher because of the higher scale of particular parts
  • ramp-up phase of Model Y should be much faster

The production rate of the Tesla Model Y electric crossover is expected to be even higher than the Model 3.

“Since Model Y will be built on the Model 3 platform and is designed to share about 75% of its components with Model 3, the cost of the Model Y production line should be substantially lower than the Model 3 line in Fremont, and the production ramp should also be faster.”

“This year should be a truly exciting one for Tesla. Model 3 will become a global product, the profitability of our business should become sustainably positive, our new Gigafactory Shanghai should start producing cars, and we will start tooling for Model Y production. Our growth opportunities are massive. Our accomplishments have been possible thanks to the exceptional effort of our employees and the support of our customers, suppliers and investors. We hope you’re as excited as we are about 2019.”

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33 Comments on "Tesla Model Y Production & Sales Expected To Far Outpace Model 3"

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Yes just imagine. The model Y will have more room yet be just as efficient as the model 3. It can be used for work loads and small business more like a small truck. In fact Tesla might make a few versions like a Van, Pickup and of course it will be a Compact Utility Vehicle CUV. I’m sure sales will be very high .

It’s going to be bigger and heavier than a 3 with more drag. It won’t be as efficient as the Model 3.

For a realistic comparison, look at the range difference between Models S and X.

Model 3 vs Y may not be quite such a big difference as Model X has a lot of extra weight from those doors. Model Y won’t have those, so while there will still be a weight difference compared with Model 3, it won’t be as dramatic as Model S vs X.

(for those who are still hoping for Falcon wing doors on Model Y, sorry to disappoint you. It was always going to be unrealistic for Y as it’s intended to be a much cheaper car, but also there were a couple of hints in the Q4 earnings call: firstly, Musk said that “Model X is the Faberge Egg of cars and … will never be repeated”, and secondly, he said that Model Y has a very high proportion of shared components with Model 3; that’s not possible if it has Falcon doors).

Those doors are so nice though. I had an X for a couple weeks, and I’ll buy a new Y if it has the power doors and 3rd row seating, otherwise I’ll need a used X. If the back doors aren’t wings, I might be able to live with that, but they must be power doors. Could sliding doors work? They’re far and above, the best part of a minivan.

I’m more interested in space for the dog and cameras… 🙂

I need a 3rd row for my disabled son.

I think the 3 based CUV and van and pickup, preferably on a stretched chassis should be the next ones built.
They might assemble it at the GF1, they certainly won’t be building the body there.
And where will the workers come from as not enough housing, etc for what they are doing now.

Tesla will disrupt housing by purchasing a mobile home manufacturer.

Tents!, Whatever the problem, that is the answer.

I would guess that the efficiency difference is comparable to that of the Model S and X percentage wise.

So if it is sharing 75% with the Model 3, I wonder if the lower end variants will be release at the same time, of they will start with the higher end trims first, like they did with the 3?

Tesla has always started with the higher end trim levels. The only exception I know of is that for the Model 3, the Performance trim level came second rather than first.

No reason to think it will be different for the Model Y.

Model3 Owned- Niro EV TBD -Past-500e and Spark EV,

They didn’t have ramp up and motors quite ready for performance it seems. Since that will be probably the same for Y, I can easily see a Y-Performance be 2020 to fight off any competition performance models coming online for 2020. Plus another 2 years to improve on cell efficiencies that densities too.

I completely expect the Y to be fully loaded P-Y100D

“Tesla has always started with the higher end trim levels. The only exception …”

Another example of Pushmi being logic-challenge; an exception negates “always”.

Perhaps Pushmi meant to write: Tesla “traditionally” started with the higher trim levels.

Not a very nice comment aimed at someone whom you probably have no idea about. Does being anonymous really make some people rude or more rude ?.

Pushmi usually adds value btw.

But either way, the Y is really only the 4th model. So always meaning 2 and then one exception isn’t a great use of the word. I honestly can’t remember if the P85 was available significantly before the S85 so I am not even sure if it was “always” true.
Does the Roadster even count?

The Model Y will ramp much more quickly, and come from a factory with enough space or with room for expansion, so I would expect trims more quickly, but still expensive first. Model 3 demand might slacken a tiny bit with Model Y, maybe why they aren’t planning expansion beyond 7k per week in US. I also suspect Tesla semis will help carry Model Y cars to their destination.

“….start tooling for Model Y”

With Y sharing 75% of the of it’s components with Model 3, that means 75% of the tooling is already complete. So just 1/4th of the tooling process has to take place, and once started, the tooling should be done within a quarter. Volume production by end of 2020 could mean initial production by the end of 2019. But Elon can’t be in two places at the same time, with Model 3 in China starting production by last quarter of 2019. This could explain why Y may be pushed to end of 2020 after the China factory is up to speed with Model 3. It also enables a reservation/pre-order frenzy to build up before actual production begins.

I also wonder if Tesla is holding back the Y viewing so they don’t impact Model 3 sales in Europe that are just kicking off this quarter. My guess is that the $35k Model 3 has to start production in NA for a quarter or two before Tesla shows the Y that is not available until end of 2020.

“I also wonder if Tesla is holding back the Y viewing so they don’t impact Model 3 sales in Europe that are just kicking off this quarter.”

It certainly looks to me like Tesla is delaying the Reveal of the Model Y in order not to have the Osborne Effect apply to Model 3 sales, and not just in Europe. It’s likely that steady-state demand for TMY will be greater than for TM3 in the U.S., too.

It doesn’t quite work exactly like that. But yes, they aren’t going to have to get suppliers to start tooling on those shared components. And they don’t have to re-invent their battery pack robots. Etc. But Tesla and suppliers will both have to build out duplicate factory space and duplicate tooling in order to double production. So not quite 75% complete, but I agree with your point you are trying to make that the Model Y isn’t starting from scratch again with a clean sheet like the model 3.

Exactly, have trust and relationships with those suppliers so it speeds up the process dramatically, lower risk and cost than all new parts.

The existing tooling for the 3 is fully occupied producing parts for the 3. Likely they need to build additional tooling that will produce the same parts. And if the Y is going to be built at gigafactory in Nevada, it would not make a lot of sense to ship those parts from Fremont. Much more cost effective and efficient to collocate. Parts that are coming from suppliers also likely need to have additional tooling made to produce enough quantities.

It should go faster, since they know what to build and already have the programs to build them.

” that means 75% of the tooling is already complete”

Tooling mostly refers to body panel dies, almost all of which will be different.

“Volume production by end of 2020 could mean initial production by the end of 2019”

It could mean anything, but Musk said initial production in early 2020. I figure that means hand-built, like Model 3’s initial production in July, 2017.

First, this is very likely not accurate. “According to Tesla, the Model Y will share a platform with Model 3 and because of that, about 75% of components will be the same.” Tesla board claimed that. Elon has said multiple times that MY will be much improved on design, and he wanted to re-do a number of things. SOME on the board spoke up and said no. Of course, who are you going to believe? The board, or Elon? Elon is a BIG believer in ask for forgiveness later, as opposed to permission first. Secondly, “since volume production is to be reached by the end of 2020.” Has elon claimed that? I have a sneaking feeling that they will start production by June/July, AND will be in full swing by end of year, and mid year 2020 at latest. WHy? Because with each new model, the company learns and puts the lessons to work. It took a LOT to get M3 up, and it is still not fully up. But, I think that ELon has learned how to move more of the hand manufacturing up front, and redesign to better use robotics on the back-end. I would not be surprised… Read more »

You’re projecting. On Wednesday’s call Musk said:
“Three quarters of the Model Y is common with the Model 3”
“It was only about maybe 30% in common with the Model S, whereas Model Y is, I think, 76%…”

Regarding the space within the factory building of the Gigafactory in Nevada:

The target is to produce about 105 gWh of battery cells/modules/packs per year at the Gigafactory in Nevada.

If Tesla will decide to use a substantial portion of the factory space of the Gigafactory in Nevada for the production of the Tesla Model Y, then that would mean that there will be less space left over within the factory building of the Gigafactory in Nevada for the production of battery cells/modules/packs.

Does that mean that Tesla will lower their initial target for the annual production capacity of battery cells/modules/packs in the Gigafactory in Nevada?

Or will Tesla perhaps decide to adjust the design of the Gigafactory in Nevada and just simply increase the size of the factory building (in order to create more space within the factory building)?

Or will Tesla decide to build a completely new factory building nearby the already existing factory building?

Or will Tesla come up with some other solution?

And will Tesla produce the Tesla Semi at the Gigafactory in Nevada as well?

105 GWh is a ten year plan. Tesla’s plans change every few months. They still say Model Y might be built in a different location. Nimbleness is one of their advantages.

Musk said: “And we’re most likely going to put Model Y production right next to – in fact, it’s part of our main Gigafactory in Nevada”

Next to or part of, make of that what you will.

GF1 is nowhere near complete. It looks like maybe over half of the final footprint is built and operational. It would seem to me that they’ll be able to do everything that they say they will do there.

As long as it is properly designed and don’t just look like a bloated Model 3 (like the X vs. S do).

Given the look of the teaser image, I’d say you’re out of luck, unfortunately.

What will be the total annual production capacity of the Tesla Model Y at the Gigafactory in Nevada?

Half a million?

I suspect a lot of people will be trading in their Model 3s for the Model Y. Looking forward to more used Model 3s on the market to shop in 2020.

Does anyone have any info on whether NHTSA will consider removing the side view mirror requirement and allow the production Model Y to look like the teaser shots? That’d give the LR Model 3/Y an extra fifteen miles of range “for free.”