Study: By 2025, All New Vehicles Will Be Electric

Tesla Model 3

JUN 7 2017 BY ANTHONY KARR 91

Chevy Bolt EV:

The cost per mile for EVs will drop to only 6.8 cents.

It’s no secret that the transportation sector needs a change. A big change. In order to meet the new strict global emission goals set by world leaders in 2015 (read: to save our planet), we need to stop using internal combustion engine cars by 2035. Taking into consideration electric vehicles account for one to two percent on the different markets, this sounds like a pretty ambitious plan.

But Stanford University economist Tony Seba believes things are much brighter than we think. His new report “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030” claims that no more petrol or diesel car, buses, and trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within only eight years.

Well, that’s quite a bold statement. “We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” Seba says. That’s true, but is it going to happen that fast?

Tesla

Tesla Model 3

The turning point for the industry, according to the study, will arrive in only two or three years as batteries for electric vehicles get better. Seba sees 200 miles (322 kilometers) at a single charge and $30,000 price for an EV as numbers we will start seeing before the end of the decade.

“What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally.”

According to the specialist, only nostalgic people will hold on to the old habit of car ownership. Most of the customers will adapt to a new way of transportation with vehicles in demand. Dealerships will disappear by 2024.

According to the study, the cost per mile for EVs will drop to only 6.8 cents, while insurance costs will fall by 90 percent thanks to autonomous technologies. More than 95 percent of the miles driven in the United States by 2030 will be in autonomous EVs. Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million by 2030.

Hit the two source links below for further details from the study.

Sidenote:  Or if you prefer your forecasting to be super conservative, check out Edmunds report that an EV sales apocalypse is heading for the US with the eventual expiry of the $7,500 federal credit.   Happy middle-ground anyone?

Source: Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030 via Financial Post

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91 Comments on "Study: By 2025, All New Vehicles Will Be Electric"

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I agree with Tony.

I’m a big EV fan, but this study is a complete non sens. It is completely impossible to move to 100% EV sold in 8 years.

Maybe 30% if it goes really fast…

If you watch Tony Seba’s video it shows 1% cars and 99% horse and buggy on the streets of New York in the early 1900s and 13 years later it was 99% cars and 1% horse and buggy … Tesla sales are growing at the same pace … when more manufacturers get their EVs out in the next few years the exponential growth will continue. It’s happened before and it’ll happen again.

The difference between a BEV and a gasmobile (or diesel truck) isn’t nearly as great, either in utility or economics, as the difference between a gasmobile a horse-and-buggy, or between a diesel truck and a horse-drawn wagon.

Furthermore, this idiot (Tony Seba) is ignoring that last 1%. Every real economist should be familiar with the classic “S” curve of a disruptive tech revolution, where the last few percent of the market takes almost as long to switch over as the first few percent. If he had claimed 95% or even 98%, there might be at least a low mathematical chance that his prediction might come true, altho realistically that would require a significant quantum jump in battery tech, one that we have yet to see. But claiming 100% displays a shocking degree of ignorance on the subject of economics by this so-called “economist”.

With all the fleets wanting badly the autonomous cars, pretty soon EVs will begin to fly off the shelves as manufacturers are smelling the money and getting their shjt together real fast to produce them in large number… at last…

If you agree that 30% is possible then by induction 60% is also possible and then 100% is also possible. The rate of change in the gradient of the curve is so high once we pass the inflection point.

LOL!

LOL, I love these studies that have no basis in realty. The change will happen but nowhere near that quick. The lead time for new vehicle development is 5-7 years.

Not for the Bolt. I don’t that was a special case.

It was a special case. According to the article linked below, the Bolt EV project began in spring 2013, so by that timeframe, from start of development to start of production took 3-1/2 years. I’ve seen it claimed that a two-year development for a new car model is possible under optimal conditions (i.e., everything goes right), but Jay Cole has said that’s quite unlikely. One of the many things that this failure of an economist is ignoring, is the cost for auto makers to switch from ICE tech over to BEV tech. That means a massive shift in investment, and a lot of factories devoted to making ICEngines, and parts for them (as well as mufflers, exhaust manifolds, air intakes, oil pumps, fuel pumps, fan belts, etc. etc.) will be abandoned, and new money invested in large-scale* battery cell factories. Where is all that money going to come from? Hint: It will not be supplied by unicorns and rainbows. And the requirement for all that new capital investment is one of the reasons why we will not see 100%, or even 90%, of the new gasmobile market and the new diesel truck market replaced with BEVs in so short a… Read more »

Not for the Bolt. I don’t that was a special case.

That just tells you that many carmakers are left without a car to sell in 2025.

They ALL have some models ready just in case… they always did.

Quite a read. 8 yrs has to be too short.
EV production in the US would have to do a 9.5x production ramp – twice within 8 yrs.

I’m happy to see them predicting this, but I can’t believe they took into account how long tooling would take.

make that a 9.95x ramp twice.

yeah.. I think maybe they misplaced a decimal point in their math somewhere. There’s just no way it will happen that quickly. Even if everyone suddenly decided they wanted an EV TOMORROW, it would take more time than that for the auto makers and battery manufacturers to catch up.

Here’s my more realistic prediction for 2025.

Every manufacturer will have 5 to 10 plug-in hybrids to choose from, and 2-3 full electrics on the lot. But the bulk of sales (probably 80% to 90%) will still be traditional ICE vehicles. We will be at the bottom of the S-curve, which will clearly be in progress by that point, but will still have a long way to go.

The S-curve starts this year, is recognizable next year. And whatever the dealers have on their lots, demand will be >90% BEV in 2025.

Some carmakers will have enough production capacity, others are closing shop.

Honestly if we hit 10-20% by 2025 (maybe​ 10% more in CA compared to everywhere else) then we’d be doing pretty good. In 15 years we’d be looking at maybe half or even a majority of EVs. That in itself would be pretty rapid change. 100% EVs in 8 years just isn’t going to happen.

Study: This study is complete BS.

I thought you had to be smart to get in to Stanford??

The Stanford part got me, too. To achieve all cars sold are electric by 2024, we need to build at least 100 gigafactories by then, and get the supply chain in place to feed those factories with material by then. Wow.

DJ said:

“I thought you had to be smart to get in to Stanford??”

It appears we’re dealing with an outlier here. 😉

Wow. How much Kool-Aid drink did Tony Seba drink before writing up this study? His predictions make him sound like an idiot EV fanboi.

Maybe wildly optimistic, would be a more appropriate term, for some one crunching the hard data and numbers, not taking into account how many battery factories are actually being planned and built, for the massive volume increase in capacity.

Never mind, Tesla shareholders just announced plans to build 10-20 Battery Gigafatories worldwide. Oops, go figure?

I agree. The article itself says that long term crude oil will drop to $25/barrel. The more market penetration EVs make, the cheaper gas will get. That opposing force alone will slow the end of gas cars.

Nope, it wont slow the end of gas cars.
Nobody is going to pay a premium for a car that is obsolete in 5-10 years, banned from cities and difficult to find fuel for.

The car industry will get a boost from accelerated replacement of gas cars.

Demand for gasmobiles will remain for certain niche applications, as well as in regions where the electric grid is not reliable (North Korea being the best known example… not that a lot of people there can afford cars!)

There is a reason why the “S” curve of market penetration during a disruptive tech revolution shows a tapering off as adoption approaches 100%.

You are all ignoring the obvious fact that the Flying Tera-Factory Building Factory will be online in two years. It will begin creating gigafactories at a rate too fast for humans to see. There will probably be 1000 gigafactories by 2019. 100,000 by 2020 and a million by 2025. No worries.

Gigafactories will leave the Terafactory faster than bullets leave the nozzle of a machine gun…

Elon, put down the bottle … LOL

Seems much to good to believe, but I think he’s right about the turning point. Say no new fossil-fuelled cars will be *designed* after 2025 and that might actually be true.

That’s possible, but even that will be very difficult. The world does not equate to US, Norway, Germany and Denmark ….

Germany?

Germany hasn’t matched the uptake rate of plug-ins in the US, and it lags behind the EU marlets in general. And that’s in a country with a MUCH “greener” sensibility than the US as well as much higher fuel prices and a more relaible grid.

Germany crossed 1% market share of Plugins last year. The US did so too. Regaring market share the US and Germany are pretty much the same.

As a general rule (probably with a few exceptions), Terawatt may well turn out to be right on that. Once ICE tech is perceived as outmoded and rapidly becoming obsolete, few if any companies are going to continue to spend money on developing new models of gasmobiles or diesel trucks. The remaining market will be serviced by a dwindling few gasmobile and diesel truck models remaining in production, with auto/truck makers shifting all R&D to the new tech. (Please note I did not claim this will happen as soon as 2025.)

If you want a real-world example, look at Detroit Electric and its great-grandpa’s generation electric car. The Model T and its competitors virtually ended the demand for early electric cars by the mid-to-late 1920s. But altho Detroit Electric went bankrupt after the stock market crash of 1929, the last model continued to be made in smaller and smaller batches until WW II.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Electric#History

Thanks Pu-Pu. Very interesting.

I also think it will take a long time to get from 99% to 100% and Detroit Electric production until 1939 and sales until 1942 illustrate that point well.

No need to worry about the last 1%, but predicting 100% makes this study sound even more out of touch with history and reality.

GSP

Another example of life in the Bay area/California bubble – and people wonder why our current president got elected.

It’s no wonder when you can win with a smaller share of the vote than your opponent.

That being said Trump is probably the greatest spokesman for the EV alive today. Nobody else has the power to inspire so many to want to do the exact opposite of what he supports. I thank all the idiots who voted for him. There is no better way to undermine your political goals than to hitch your wagon to an incompetent boob.

Sorry but there’s no chance. Zero …. not that I would mind this to be true at all. But that’s just load of BS.

I know he sees this world of Taas taking over and wants his vision to be true. He also thinks that out of all those EV’s only a fraction will be individually owned. I mean really just the rich will have their Tesla’s and that’s it … LOL

Indeed that is actually the part of the study that is even more over the top than the rest. Predicting zero car ownership is like predicting al houses will be Uber houses or even al woman will be Uber woman and al man will be Uber man. It just won’t happen, not soon, not late, not in a thousand years, just never. Property feeling is one of the most deeply brain wired sense of a human being, it is hard wired in our constitution and even partly make up the fabric of who we are.

I’m surprised this is even posted here. Hopefully the cost curve will make BEVs less expensive by 2025. But, until you can add 200 miles of charge in under 10 minutes, the luddites will not buy them.

As to ride sharing…someone doesn’t understand American car culture. Shared cars may happen in Europe. But, outside large cities, owning at least one personal vehicle is part of being an American. That’s not going to change in 8 years.

The thought of sharing my car with some other dirty slob ranks up there with the though of riding a bus to work. There is no way I want to deal with other people while commuting everyday.

The american car culture ain’t what it used to be. Also attitudes that seems unlikely to you are far more acceptable to a younger more hep generation. Necessity is the mother of invention.

I didn’t say things won’t change. But, it won’t happen in 8 years time.

Property feeling is way stronger than necessity. If needed people will start owning their own horses again instead of giving up their cars for public transport. It just won’t happen, not in 8 years, not in thousand, just never. Owning your means of transport is the most important property man has ever had throughout ages. Be it horse, carriage, ICE car and tomorrow EV car, jet pack of any other vessel, but owning his very own that stays near him at his instant disposal, man will always do.

+1. Completely agree.

The thought of sharing my car with some other dirty slob ranks up there with the though of riding a bus to work. There is no way I want to deal with other people while commuting everyday.

“Some OTHER dirty slob”– implies you are a dirty slob yourself- so, no problem. At the very least you are a conceited snob.
I prefer riding in buses to driving- more relaxing, sometimes more comfortable, safer and less stressful. Even as an introvert I sometimes meet friendly interesting people on buses. Perhaps you have a lot more b*st*rds on buses in USA?

JIMJFOX,
CCIE was commenting on ‘American car culture’ as a whole. Car ownership is embedded in the culture. I think it is great that you enjoy riding in buses and have experienced benefits associated with doing so. Car owners of America – as a whole – do not share your enthusiasm for ride sharing – buses or other options.

I was deliberate with my wording about this not working anytime soon in the US. Other parts of the world are less individualistic and may deal better with sharing.

And yes, I am also a slob in certain ways. I would not want to subject myself to others via ride sharing everyday.

I don’t like his horse example. It doesn’t really fit the current situation. Early cars were so superior to horses, and inexpensive. Ev’s are superior to ice but not in correlation as early cars were to the horse.
A bit ambitious but by 2030 that may be true that no gas cars are being produced.

You beat me to it. This is a tired comparison indeed.

Early cars were so superior to horses? Have you ever looked at early cars?

Early gas cars were slow, unreliable, incredibly expensive, required both fuel and maintenance which were not at all widely distributed early on, and required a change in mindset far more profound than that of going from gasoline ton EV. “Get a horse!” was something early motorists would hear as their vehicles sat by the roadside broken down or just stuck. Nor were there gas stations or auto parts houses in every town as there are now.

That said, I think the 2025 date is more clickbait than reality. 2030? More likely.

Currently, cost of operation is only one of many factors that go into new ICE car purchases. There is a very high tolerance for higher cost of operation in order to get purely aesthetic or luxury features.

There is no reason to believe that will suddenly stop because of EV’s. Cost of operation won’t be the trigger for mass adoption.

In 2025 a ICE premium will be in the sticker price of cars with a tailpipe.
A comparable BEV will cost less!!

For those who think this is impossible due to ramp up, remember the study says that vehicle sales will fall to 1/5 of what they are now due to TaaS. In other words, most people won’t be buying cars at all. Mostly services. And services will buy EVs due to fuel and maintenance savings.

So you don’t need a 1-for-1 capacity replacement. More like 1 for 5.

Tesla is aiming for a 10x increase in production *next year*. So industry wide we could easily see another 10x increase in 6 years. That would be around 5M EVs per year. We need about 20M to replace global auto sales with 20% of today’s production, so he is optimistic but perhaps not totally insane.

“For those who think this is impossible due to ramp up, remember the study says that vehicle sales will fall to 1/5 of what they are now due to TaaS. In other words, most people won’t be buying cars at all.”

And that idea is, if anything, even more clueless than the claim that all new cars and trucks will be BEVs in only 8 years.

People in general are not going to give up the convenience and freedom of owning a car just because human taxi/carpool drivers are replaced with robot taxi/carpool drivers.

Bear in mind that there’s no upfront commitment necessary for people to start trying out TaaS. If you could pay a quarter or less for transport than you do now, would you be willing to share a ride with a stranger some of the time? What if you could save half, while eschewing the stranger? You could try it out once or twice, and see if you liked saving the money. Also, no more dealing with parking, or licensing, or maintenance, or fueling. I think a lot of people would do it.

Taking a bus or a taxi is not the same as owning a car where you can leave stuff in as long as you like, that you can have with your own color, interior, music and many other personalizations. A taxi is just no match.

On money, yes it’s important but no, most people aren’t broke to the point of not wanting to have their own car and buying a car is precisely one of the nicest things that money allows. Parking is merely a problem in badly organized cities not in the good ones and in rural areas that’s not even a question.

“Compared to today, global oil production will be more
Concentrated in Russia and the Gulf countries by 2030. ”
– RethinkX + Report_051517

The Russian economy will completely collapse at an oil price below $ 35 per barrel for half a year, and at a price of $ 30, there can not be any talk about any production at all. Under the current government, with a 200% probability, the Russians simply destroy the rival oil producing regions (they will unleash the war) just by 30bln barrels in order to raise the price of oil again.

Aint happening.

Although I hope I am completely wrong and proven so.

I was in downtown Chicago yesterday, by no means the most teeming of urban centers, but a good example. Thousands of cars parked on-street, thousands more coming and going from parking garages, not a charging station in sight. Moreover, the map of charging stations to replenish the Volt were very limited and I gave up fighting the rusk to get to them.

But in seven years all these people can be served by cars repsonding to their needs with nary a change in the city heartbeat. Suddenly the 400,000 people who commute into/out of the city during during “normal” times (just from collar counties and across the IN border) will not require a nearly-identical number of vehicles to carry them. Simultaneously the hundreds of thousands of cars reduced at a blink to 60-70% fewer will be serviced by a 20 to 50-fold increase in available charging ports everywhere in the city that parking remains.

Yeah, that’s the ticket.

You know, people pay to see this guy make up wild stuff like that.

With TaaS, no cars need to be parked on the street. It drops you off and goes to the next pick up. No driving around looking for parking. This improves traffic flow tremendously, since all the cars can be managed by the service. The same car that drops me off at my office at 0700 goes back out, picks someone else up, and drops them at 0800, then does it again. This alone reduces car numbers by 3-4x.

Also carpooling is a no brainer as it reduces your trip cost by 2x, 3x or 4x at minimal time cost. And now since you are not driving, trip time is not ‘wasted’. You can work, make calls, or watch a show. So an extra 10-15 minutes for car pooling becomes nothing. And if everyone carpools traffic flow is improved, meaning that it might actually be faster due to faster flow of traffic from less cars.

But everyone could be doing that right now. Everyone in the carpool except the person actually driving could be using his laptop to do work, his iPad to watch a movie or TV show, or his cell phone to talk to co-workers.

You will note there is no rush for people to join carpools just because they can now work or watch streaming video in the car. Yet you think this will magically change if the driver is changed from a human to a robot?

It’s nothing but wishful thinking.

It is also giving a problem. When you drive your car in the morning it stops being in the traffic once you are arrived; with a car that go get someone else it create a new extra traffic that did not exist before that will add extra congestion upon the congestion that was already there. Instead of a traffic reduction, we will see a traffic increase, by somewhat less cars, but more traffic nevertheless.

realistic said: “Suddenly the 400,000 people who commute into/out of the city during during “normal” times (just from collar counties and across the IN border) will not require a nearly-identical number of vehicles to carry them. …the hundreds of thousands of cars reduced at a blink to 60-70% fewer…” Thank you! I’m glad to see at least one person here exercising critical thinking on this subject. While in theory it might be possible for a single vehicle to serve the needs of several people, allowing a drastic reduction in the nationwide fleet of cars, in reality a large percentage of people need those cars during the same hours of the day, which is why we have a morning and evening “rush hour”. The existence of self-driving cars is not going to magically change that reality. Nor will autonomous vehicles help with the extended wait time for those living in suburbs and rural areas, to summon a self-driving taxi from more populated areas. Lyft and Uber are not going to pay to have cars wasting time sitting still in sparsely populated areas, on the hope that someone will eventually call for one! Any fleet operator is going to base his cars… Read more »

I think Seba meant to say 2125 not 2025 … but who would find 2125 interesting these days???

Talking about non drivers starting to use cars, I wonder what will happen to traffic when school kids start coming to school with TaaS instead of a school bus…

It’s 10 years since the iPhone was introduced, people still buy new flip phones.

…and wired phones too, albeit cordless ones.

The general convergence of the predictions from interests as diverse as BP and XOM to UColo Boulder and the American Sustainable Business Council, occurs around the range of 25-30% Plug-in sales (about half of those pure BEV) in the period 2025-30. Of the remaining non-plug-in, mild hybrids (advanced start-stop with engine-off “sailing”, full electrification of accessories, etc.) will constitute more than half.

Electrification makes a huge positive difference in cars, whether they lug around a downsized liter or two of combustion chamber or not. Even if you’re the type that loves the snort of a sporting exhaust, you’d be crazy not to love what’s happened on cars like the new Acura NSX, with its three electric motors and phenomenal KERS.

This process is not going to stop, or even appreciably slow down with incentive phase-out. But Seba’s projections are futz. Nuckin futz.

“According to the specialist, only nostalgic people will hold on to the old habit of car ownership. Most of the customers will adapt to a new way of transportation with vehicles in demand. Dealerships will disappear by 2024.”

And giant rabbits from outer space will roam the earth. I want what this guy is smoking.

I made my prediction here years ago, and I stick to it.

%25 of new car sales will be EVs by 2025.

I’ll add a new prediction:

Nobody will remember I said it.

“According to the specialist, only nostalgic people will hold on to the old habit of car ownership.”

Yeah, with probably 80% or more of people who currently own cars being “nostalgic”, and approaching 100% in suburbs and rural areas. Not to mention a lot of people too old to drive, or disabled, suddenly becoming “nostalgic”. 😉

Look what Hyundai did with the Ioniq.
Identical ICEV and BEV variants of the same car for about the same price.

Around 2020 more carmakers will have that kind of offerings with the BEV mature (=enough range to not be an issue).

Around 2022 still more carmakers will have those pairs, with the BEV having a better margin for carmaker and dealer at a lower price point.

At 2025, who is going to pay a steep premium for an obsolete ICEV when an identical but better and cheaper BEV is on the same lot?

People don’t like to waste money on a more expensive but inferior product.

Carmakers start suspecting or realizing this and will break every car development record in the coming years, otherwise they are the next Kodak.

Want to gather eye balls, and comments.

Make an outrageous comment, and watch people pour in.

It’s like all those viral ads all over the internet, and many Youtube videos.

Yes, InsideEVs staff did not choose to post this because they think it’s a realistic or likely prediction! Rather the opposite…

But hey, nobody is putting a gun to our heads and making us read or post comments to this article.

“Stanford University economist Tony Seba… claims that no more petrol or diesel car, buses, and trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within only eight years.” Then he’s an idiot and has no business calling himself an “economist”. Anybody looking at the “S” curve of a disruptive tech revolution can see that it takes nearly as long for the last few percent of the market to switch to the new tech as it did the first few percent. So even if we do go into that advantageous sustained exponential growth very soon — or even more optimistically, if that has already started — there is no way we’re going to reach 100%, or even 98%, of all cars and trucks being BEVs within only eight years. “We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history…” Hopefully that’s true, but the EV revolution is being driven by advancement in batteries, which showed doubling of energy density roughly every 10 years a few years ago (see graph linked below). The pace may have accelerated slightly, but not that much. Compare to the cell phone revolution, which was driven by advancement in microprocessors,… Read more »

It looks more like futurology, not hard science study.

Everybody will use autonomous taxis, ok, maybe :/
Basing it on hot air announcements like this:
” Tesla, which
has built the world’s largest battery factory,
at 35GWh, has announced that it will power
its factory with 100% clean energy from solar
and wind.1″
puts it into fan dreams category.

100% nonsense.
Average age of cars on the road is >11 years in the US, more elsewhere… Which means there are a lot of of 11-15 -y.o. cars in use. It’s going to take quite a while for them all to be replaced.
The current EV offering is tiny unless one lives in a tiny minority of the planet.
Most vehicle types in use in the US don’t even have a BEV equivalent (personal trucks, large SUVs) yet, let alone the 100s of models available across all types.

Commercial trucks & buses usually last much more than 10 years, and can’t be sold earlier to maintain RoI. No way there’ll be no non-BEV trucks & buses within 8 years.

“No way there’ll be no non-BEV trucks & buses within 8 years”

Maybe not. But the ‘way’ will be by regulations to reduce NOX emissions in cities- which is where buses mostly operate. And many trucks, too.

Eventually, yes. But _0_ petrol or diesel vehicles sold by 2025? That, BTW, includes all PHEVs… So BEVs will be able to fulfill all needs? _Maybe_ by 2075.

The prediction is not that there will be no petrol vehicles in 2025, but that there will not be new ones sold by then. Gasoline will still be used for many years after, if in diminishing amounts.

Thank you for the voice of reason…. all the squeals about the last percentage are getting me down. As long as we get well up the S curve very quickly driven along by legislators, self interest and love for the planet, I’ll be happy. I do think the Transport as a service may be a “developed world” or at least urban phenomenon for a long time, but I agree that electrification of the planet is necessary and the only thing that will save us. This study and others does need to be filed for review in 4 (and 8!) years.

Is the the electric grid ready for such a transition? How much additional generation capacity would be needed?

In the US at least I think the grid will be fine given most people will charge at night. For example, in the summer my air conditioner requires far more power and consumes far more electricity than required to put 40 miles of range worth into my Volt overnight. I think the bigger issues are:
A) getting charging infrastructure for the 40% or so of people who don’t have access where they leave their cars overnight.
B) most car models run on a 5+ year cycle
C) as other have mentioned, scaling up battery production
So, I think 2025 is *wildy* optimistic. If we are at 30% by then I will be thrilled.

12 %

I’m reminded of the transition from tube TVs to flat screens, which was also a sharp S-curve. Within a short period of time between 2000 and 2010, we went from flat screens as exotic extravagance to zero tube TVs still for sale anywhere. And even though there were huge numbers of working tube TVs in use, by now the large majority have been junked, even though they were still in good usable condition.

Once the EV transition gets going in the next decade, huge numbers of gasmobiles will be prematurely abandoned. It’ll be a sight to see.

I don’t know if these two scenarios could be more different. First a TV, compared to a car, is a small expense with a much shorter lifespan. Cars, barring being totalled in an accident, are used for decades. People buy new tvs and throw out old ones (broken or not) after about 5 years.
Second, no one’s livelihood is based on a TV. A car is a tool to earn a living, obtain food, etc. Which means to someone, a barely functioning car is still valuable. The vast majority of the population will turn their nose up to a slightly flawed (in functionality) TV.
Third, the functional upgrade of an electric car vs a gas car isn’t anywhere near the functional upgrade of an enormous, thick, SD tube tv vs a thin, HDTV.

OK, I just did something bizarre, namely actually looking at the study we are commenting on (or at least the executive summary). I’m familiar with Seba’s thinking, so I don’t really need to go into the weeds with all the supporting material to at least understand what he’s proposing. Adoption of EV tech is really the secondary part of what Seba is talking about. His main point is about TaaS (Transportation as a Service). Seba sees self-piloting tech as the real game-changer, with EV tech as a naturally supporting piece. His contention is that the combination of EV tech (radically simplifying the mechanics of vehicles) with vehicle autonomy will mean that hailing one of the new autonomous EV robotaxis will cost individual users a tiny fraction of what owning their own ICE vehicle costs. Once usable EV robotaxis are running, very quickly consumers will figure this out, and abandon their individually-owned petrol cars in droves. Trying out the new TaaS will require no upfront commitment by consumers, and once they’ve realized the savings, the car in the garage will get very little use, even if it has years of service life left. You can pooh-pooh this all you like, but… Read more »

James – I read through Seba’s study. I believe self-driving robotaxis are coming very soon and will be cheap. But not as cheap as Seba says – he ignores too many real-world costs. Also, his utilization factors are a joke and he has no clue about ex-urban and rural usage patterns. That’s why his timeline is implausible.

It is not a right assumption because it is not the selfdriving technology of cheap price which is holding back people from taking a taxi and not owning a car, it is the non desire to not own a car. So except for specific city cases and movements while in vacation abroad that prospect will never be because people will always want to have their own cars.

Even in the specific best case scenario of cities with free public transport, there are still large numbers of private cars. In the specific worst case scenario of country areas, people don’t even imagine not owning at least one car preferably several.

Given how this country can’t let coal go I have a hard time accepting that the USA will let oil go that quickly even if EVs were cheaper than ICE cars.

People care about personal comfort. When EV are cheaper people will use EV. The opposite would be true. If the direst tech where to become 1/2 the cost of the existing tech most American’s would switch just as fast.