Rivian Talks R1T Electric Truck & R1S SUV Sales Expectations

FEB 8 2019 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 56

Exactly what level of sales/production volume should we be expecting here?

This usually isn’t a figure that gets tossed around often. Typically, automakers like to stay mum on expectations. However, Rivian CEO R.J. Scaringe seems willing to discuss the sales expectations of the Rivian R1T electric truck and Rivian R1S electric SUV.

In a rather lengthy interview with Forbes, Rivian CEO Scaringe lays out some combined numbers for the R1T truck and R1S SUV.

Given that both vehicles are expected to be on the rather expensive side, we didn’t expect earth-shattering numbers, but rather some down-to-earth-figures.

And that’s precisely what we got. In the Forbes interview, Scaringe explains that initial volume will be sort of low, but the ramp will happen rather quickly. As Forbes explains:

“The pickup will have a base price around $68,000, and the SUV will be $72,500 (and both come with a tax incentive). Though Rivian won’t share preorder figures, the company expects to deliver an ambitious 20,000 units (combined truck and SUV) in 2021 and 40,000 in 2022, which translates to approximately $1.4 billion and $2.8 billion, respectively, in sales. By comparison, Tesla sold 22,000 units of the Model S in its first full year and some 25,000 units of the Model X when it debuted.”

Solid figures for sure. And doubling within a year of launch is a promising comment too. But matching the Tesla Model 3 in year one? That’s a bit crazy, really.

Honestly, though, no other automaker outside of Tesla has created the stir caused by Rivian. That occurred back when it debuted its R1T electric truck in LA. We’re guessing demand is going to far outpace supply here.

Visit our InsideEVs Rivian sub-forums for more electric adventure vehicle discussion

Source: Forbes

Categories: Rivian, Trucks

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56 Comments on "Rivian Talks R1T Electric Truck & R1S SUV Sales Expectations"

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20,000 is a good place to start. Will be interesting to watch them grow.

For scale comparison, Ford sold 1.075 million F-Series pickups in 2018.

When you compare 20k and 40k to the F150 Raptor sales of around 13k/year, this should scare the establishment considerably. This is going to be the wake-up call for GM and Ford as it was for Lexus, Jaguar, and Infiniti when the Tesla Model S hit the market. I can easily see a 20% drop across the ICE luxury pickup market in 2021 due to Rivian. I can also see Tesla taking a hit on the Model X, based on local Tesla community chatter.

Yes. Ford, GM, and FCA will be able to sell barge loads of entry-level trucks (2 door, 2WD, minimal bling, no upgraded cargo or towing capacity). But if Rivian can bring these vehicles to market at these prices and with acceptable quality, then they will eat into the high-profit portion of the Legacy truck sales, where a disproportionate share of their profits are made.

To the foot draggers at F/GM/FCA: You have my thoughts and prayers.

IF, can’t deposit that in any bank account.

Whatever you do, don’t pre-order these trucks. Start up companies are walking away without giving the promised product to the purchaser.

Why do you think this is a Raptor Competitor? The Raptor isn’t any faster than the standard F150’s. The things that make the Raptor a Raptor are basically the 3″ suspension. People largely buy it because they “can” jump dunes (even if they never actually will). So far Rivian have not shown this kind of capability.

Capable competitor to the higher end Tacomas, and the normal full size off road oriented models (Rebel, FX4 and Z71 territory), but the Raptors? They are currently in a league of their own.

Maybe a different market than the Raptor, but both expensive high margin premium trucks targeting a specific audience. I suspect 1 Raptor sale is worth 4 or 5 F-150’s for margin.

There probably is a bigger profit margin, (in part because they sell for more than MSRP in many locations due to scarcity), but it’s unlikely to be that high.

The raptor IS somewhat more powerful with the most boosted version of the larger V6; it’s a four door cab with a short bed and it is raised and tweaked for off roading. Its as close as the F-series gets to the Rivian. The Rivian is a non-truck truck (the bed and cab are one piece like the Honda Ridgeline). It’s basically the same as the SUV but with the part behind the second seat row open.

These mondo EVs can hardly be considered “green” vehicles though they are less “brown” than their Petroleum burning brethren. Just don’t delude yourself that you are part of the solution to anything by driving one. With a motor for each wheel they can (will?) offer the ability to to be in reverse on one side and forward on the other like a skid steer (Bobcat, etc). That will really let you trash the earth.

Like similar heat engine powered mondo trucks these are mostly big toys for people with testosterone poisoning.

An EV truck (or car) doing a skid steer would be a great thing to see! I love it.

The global pickup market was 5.53 million trucks in 2017. Even if Rivian gets to 55,300 R1Ts in year (2024?), they’ll just make it to 1%.
No one gets scared at those numbers.

I don’t know, 1% would get my attention if I were Ford- especially when you look at their stock value as of today. Considering Rivian is only on EV company, with more on the way, things aren’t going to get magically better for the ICE pickup platform.

BlackBerry wasn’t scared by the first-generation iPhone, either. How did that work out for them?

You’re exactly right Rivian is going to affect Tesla sales, Ford, GM, Ram and Jeep could care less about Rivian.

Just how much less could they care? #GrammarNazi

I think it’s safe to say that within a few years, they’ll care quite a lot about the BEV pickups offered by Rivian, Tesla, and other new auto makers!

This vehicle does NOT compete against the F150. This is more of a F250/F350.
And I doubt that the Rivian SUV will take more than a dozen sales from Tesla’s MX, if that.
The reason is the Rivian SUV is more offroad that is the MX.

Incorrect: ◾F-150 family, including the F-150 Raptor
◾F-Series Super Duty family, including the F-250, F-350 and F-450
909,330 total.
http://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers/ford-sales-numbers/ford-f-series-sales-numbers/

Can we just say a million?

They also sell them in Canada and Mexico.

Those numbers are just for the US.

ffbj: the dude who thinks USA = world.

Thanks for reminding us how much a better position Ford is in to put out electric EV trucks, and absorb even selling thousands of EV trucks and SUV’s at a loss given all their sales.

And yet still no Ford Truck or SUV EV sales. Still only vague future dates of vague future products sometime in the 2020’s.

More precisely – No truck or SUV EV sales from any company so far. There are a couple of conversions floating around, an aerodynamic “minivan” (the Model X) a few of smaller CUV’s just released (Hyundai, Kia, Jaguar and Audi) but outside of Rivian’s promise to sell in 2020 there is really nothing else.

Perhaps it’s an indication of technological/price limitations…?

I hate all this deceptive and dishonest PR that seems to be the norm now. “The pickup will have a base price around $68,000, and the SUV will be $72,500 (and both come with a tax incentive).” “Around”, what does that mean??? Plus or minus what? They have already said that when they launch, these “base” vehicles won’t be available for sale and there is no hard date as to when, if ever they will be. It’s the whole $35,000 Model 3 all over again. Instead of telling us the fictitious “base” price, tell us what the damn thing will ACTUALLY cost at launch!! Come on Rivian, I dare ya!!

Maybe they don’t know an exact figure yet. I’m guessing if they said “we don’t know what the actually cost will be,” then you’d rip them a new one for that statement too. I appreciate the ballpark estimates.

No, I wouldn’t rip them a new one. That would be honest and that’s a rarity nowadays. Wouldn’t you rather have a “ballpark” figure for the vehicle they are actively working to launch, rather than the vehicle they might someday make? Why not tell the truth and say, they will cost “around” $90,000 to $100,000. Then after that they could say- “We hope to eventually release a lower cost version that will start around $68,000 to $72,000.”

What’s wrong with being up front and honest?

Two down votes, but neither could bother to answer the question of what’s wrong with being upfront and honest in your PR?

Can you tell us exactly what inflation will be between now and 2021 and 2022?

The reality is that the USD is a moving target that goes down in value with inflation. That can be thousands of dollars difference by 2021/22.

They have already said, a longer range truck should be “about $90,000”.

Then they should have said that in this interview, but they didn’t. What they did do was deception because thus far, the only concrete plans they have is to release for sale the long range vehicles. The base models are sometime off in an undefined future.

They are pretty clear what they are doing, nothing deceptive.

What is this axe you have to grind against Rivian? Or the one you keep grinding against Tesla?

I guess your income is dependent on some legacy auto maker, and you are terrified of all the competition that’s rising.

Go Rivian!

Isn’t it really the same with the Camry (or Fusion, Civic, etc.) for $21K. One only, dealer stock, that if you to the dealer it “was just sold,” but in reality does not exist. But we do have stock of these with a few options on it starting around $30K…

With this current administration, I’d leave some room for variance in pricing, just on the subject of tariffs on materials alone so I think Rivian is spot on to say “around” . Rivian doing that actually prevents the Model 3 @ 35k type scenario.

Take these price estimates with pints of salt.

Hey dude, why don’t you start your own automobile making company, and show us how easy it is to pin down an exact price two years before start of production. /s

I appreciate Rivian’s honesty in not touting an exact figure, which almost certainly would change as they near production.

Sound like reasonable numbers, at least the first one. Any knowledge about the market for high end priced ICE trucks currently available?

Car makers don’t break out sales by sales price, so we can only do some very rough numbers. There are currently around 100K high end trucks/SUV’s (over $60K) listed on cars.com. If that represents a 60-90 day supply, that would imply roughly 400K-600K in the US market alone.

thanks, although, at least in the first year a base price of 80-90k is more realistic

The way this administration is going, unless you want to return to the 1970’s they will throw every roadblock they can in front of you to prevent you from building something that is actually good for the future, would never build anything in the US again.

Best economy in 50 years or so. But who needs that. All we need is this president to fail. Trashing the economy, open borders, whatever it takes.

Go back to Breitbart to worship your Fuhrer.

Fact is Traitor Trump and his fellow corrupt swamp creatures are accelerating the move towards a recession by inflating the economy by huge deficit-driven tax cuts for the 1% of the 1%ers while tariff war is really beginning to effect large parts of the economy such as autos and agriculture.

Seriously, you’re giving the Orange One and his criminal gang credit for the booming economy they inherited from the Obama administration?

I guess you prefer to be treated like a mushroom. That is, kept in the dark and fed B.S.

Actually, Trump deserves part of the credit, esp for the current gung ho business buying.
Obama left a decent economy to trump. BUT, it has improved a bit under him.
I am curious to see what this massive deficit will do though. Everything tells me that 1 year from now will look quite different.

Nice to see a realistic set of numbers, and ties in with their suggestion of 50,000 vehicles a year by 2025, mentioned when they were announced.

Actually, 20,000 in 2021 and 40,000 in 2022 sounds *way* more ambitious than 50,000 by 2025… I think it might be a bit too ambitious, TBH.

I guess that means they got a lot of reservations. While that’s a good thing, let’s hope it doesn’t cause chaos, like the unexpectedly high Model 3 reservations did…

Wait, wait, I thought anything like 20,000 to 40,000 EVs was just a compliance play, and couldn’t possibly be profitable. /s

It is if you are a company making millions of ICE cars, not if it represents your total production.

Depends on the margins. 20,000 – 40,000 Bolts are not profitable. 20,000 – 40,000 high-end trucks could very well be.

Why does it have to be so ugly?
Reminds me of a Chevy Colorado with exaggerated features that will look outdated in a year or two.
At least the Bollinger truck has the classic rugged appearance going for it. Not to mention, some very good functionality.

who is it being sold to? Bollinger’s is more like a willy’s and is designed cheap. Hence the look and minimal functionality.
Rivian is being sold to Texan Goat-Ropers. They live in the suburb and pretend to be a cowboy. Likewise, you have the city slickers that have moved to the west, make loads of money and wants something that they think will look like they can get through snow.
Rivian is currently that.

I did some digging, it looks like at it’s peak, the Normal, IL plant was producing 200,000 vehicles per year under Mitsubishi ownership. This bodes well for Rivian, they have enough room for future expansion(starting at 20,000 per year, they after 3.25 years, they should ramp up to the full 200k capacity, assuming they double production every year, and they don’t make major changes to the plant that would affect capacity…)

https://www(DOT)chicagotribune(DOT)com/business/ct-mitsubishi-normal-0725-biz-20150724-story(DOT)html

change the (DOT) to . to use the link. It shows where I got the 200k vehicles per year from.

you mean this link? It certainly does bode well for capacity.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-mitsubishi-normal-0725-biz-20150724-story.html

FYI — You usually don’t need to obfuscate links on this site as long as you use 2 or less links in one post. Which is pretty nice.

Yeah, putting 3 or more links in the same comment sends it to moderation. 🙁

thanx to both of you. I did not know that.

Glad to see that Rivian is aiming for 20,000 units in their first year of production, and double that the second.

Given the way things usually turn out, my guess is they will fall short of their goals, but it’s good they are aiming that high!

“A man’s reach should exceed his grasp.” — Robert Browning

Go Rivian!

Is this an established company? I’m assuming it isn’t. Beware groups like this until the product is actually being sold and seen on the street. I’m not buying into the hype just yet. A few years ago a company (name slipped my mind) was to produce three wheel cars with a mileage rate of 85 mpg. And? Where is that company now?