Global September Sales: 200,000 Plug-In Electric Cars Sold

OCT 30 2018 BY MARK KANE 34

200,000 plug-in electric cars sold in a single month!

September 2018, despite almost no growth in Europe, brings us a new, significant sales record of plug-in electric cars – about 200,500 at a growth rate of 61% year-over-year!

The previous best result was 174,000 in December 2017. We assume that October, November and December should further raise the bar.

See more our sales reports for September 2018 here.

The cumulative number for the year, after the first nine months, stands at 1,279,000 (up 68% year-over-year) at 1.8% market share.

The most popular model in September was the Tesla Model 3 with a record of nearly 23,600 sales and almost 12% of the total plug-in car volume.

With well over 82,000 sales YTD, the Tesla Model 3 probably will double the result of the 2nd best-selling car in 2018.

Currently in 2nd is the Nissan LEAF with a decent 9,823 sales in September and 66,068 YTD, followed by Chinese BAIC EC-Series with 47,377  (including 3,943 in September).

It’s worth noting that Tesla Model S is now 4th best, thanks to a surge to over 8,000 last month and 36,811 YTD. Tesla Model X is not far behind – 7,115 in September and 34,834 YTD.

Tesla now has a clear advantage also in manufacturers rank, selling over 10,000 more BEVs than the 2nd best (BYD) at its record pace of BEV and PHEVs.

  • Tesla: 38,771 (154,125 YTD)
  • BYD: 26,024 (136,539 YTD)
  • BAIC: 12,431 (90,980 YTD)

Together with BMW and Nissan, five manufacturers were able to sell more than 10,000 plug-ins in a single month, but Tesla and BYD together take a third of the entire global market.

Our thanks to EV Sales Blog for tallying up and estimating the individual sales by OEM

Categories: BYD, Nissan, Sales, Tesla

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34 Comments on "Global September Sales: 200,000 Plug-In Electric Cars Sold"

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The question is whether the three last red bars will be long enough to get to an annual global total of 2 million Plug-In sales in 2018?

It will be close, but I would think it is possible. An average of 240.000 vehicles for the next three months seems fair.
Go EV’s!

It will depend entirely on China. US volume is locked in and Europe is pretty flat.

This global sales chat has been updated by “EV Sales” and GM Bolt is no longer in the Top 20.

I always enjoy looking back at people’s forecasts. I seem to remember OPEC predicting a TOTAL of 1 million plug-ins by 2020. This prediction was in maybe 2015’ish. By mid-2017 OPEC had quadrupled their prediction. Me thinks they weren’t willing to back any prediction quite as high as 200,000 a month.

The obvious question to me is; when do we get back to the “stranded assets” argument and companies like Exxon have to admit that they are starting to worry? Add in additional regulatory concerns over global warming and you can imagine some interesting discussion within the boardroom. Interesting times.

Unfortunately most of us humans are extremely bad at predicting future rates of change in, well, any area. The average prediction tends to be much more conservative than what takes place.

That much is known. But what’s really inexcusable is to have so much data showing trends in battery cells and renewable energy cost dropping so steeply and continuously over a long period of time, and STILL people and even large orgs don’t update their models. Sigh…

Unless robotaxis take off almost overnight we’re 7-10 years from oil demand peaking. Oil companies can easily manage a peak and slow decline if they are smart about it. History shows they are often not so smart, though.

I don’t think self driving cars and robo taxis are going to change things.

They might even make traffic worse by having the roads fill up with cars with no people in them.

In terms of oil peaking we have to find away to replace single use plastics like plastics used in wrappers and bottles to get any long term drop in oil demand.

Plastic bottles can be recycled and buying water for a dollar a bottle is a waste of money.

71% of of oil used in the US is used for transportation. So plastic used for wrappers and bottles is a small amount of oil use, at least in the US.

After looking at the link Hydrocarbon gas liquids is the third most used oil product. Which is used to make plastics.

Going through the things in that link, at a generous level ~37% of HGLs look like they go to make plastics, adding that to a variety of other things on the list that could conceivably fall under the broad category of plastics it comes to ~9% of total oil usage. You can not touch plastic production and still achieve immense amounts of reduction in oil usage. (although single use plastics should be worked on for other reasons).

Chemical use of oil is what it really should be. We should NOT be burning it.
And Chemical use is only about 1/4. As such, if we can stop the burning of oil, then plastics, fertilizers, chemicals, medicine, etc are all perfectly great uses of black gold.

We should of course not use fossil fuels like oil at all, not for burning nor for plastics or other chemical uses. There is absolutely no good use of fossil oil.

Robotaxis might make congestion worse, but each one will drive ~80k electric miles per year. Even if 30% of that is additional deadheading, a single robotaxi will displace as much oil as 5 EVs. That’s why I say they could hasten oil’s peak. But only if they take off overnight, which I do not expect.

Oil Demand will peak in about 3-4 years. The reason is that in 2 years, ICE sales will PLUMMET. Why?
For luxury cars, nobody will want to pay 50-100K and have it be worth less than 10K within 2 years.
And for cars below 30K, they will not want to buy a new ICE car, when they can buy a used luxury car for 10K.

It is all about resale values and what customers will want.
One thing that will guarantee all this, is if several car companies could out with Tesla killers, such as the Camaro EV.
That IS a Tesla killer. It will also destroy the sales of ICE Camaros, Corvettes, Chargers, Mustangs, etc.
Nobody will want a slow pony car when you can buy a GM camaro that destroys what you have.

IMO EV production is likely to follow the 40-60% growth path and look like this:
2018: 2million
2019: 3-3.5million
2020: 4-5million
2021: 6-8million. Out of 80Million.

Probably not enough to smash oil then and there but enough that the writing is on the wall and no one will finance a new oil project

“nobody will want to pay 50-100K and have it be worth less than 10K within 2 years.”

This is fantasy. The fleet will still be 99% gascars in two years. You’d need ~20 million EVs in the marketplace to have a material impact on gascar prices. We’ll have 2 million. Maybe.

DDW LICE is already less than 99%

More like 10-20 years….

It depends on the pattern of mandates from governments. That’s what will induce panic-selling. Europe is ahead here with ICE bans. Asia has less environmental consciousness, but it’s hit full-bore with the effects of its lack of pollution controls until recently and its cities have a chance to impose bans before they’re trapped in the automotive way of life.

The US will be way behind, because too many car owners vote and the bloated used-car market will keep them buying for years. The world car industry right now consists of two opposed automotive cultures, the US/Canada with its market full of monster vehicles that won’t sell anywhere else, and the rest of the world. ROW car companies can’t keep building ICE cars merely for export to the US when they’re banned in their home markets, so their product mixes will swing to EVs at the cost of isolating North America in its own (loud) echo chamber. US car companies can’t export their own products anywhere else so the foreign bans will hardly affect it.

They already are reining exploration costs, and have been for some time, though recently there have been more cost cutting efforts. Despite the recent cries of $100 a barrel oil, nothing could be further from the truth.
The oil patch is suffering and even with falling production the price will continue to decline, and a small part of that decline, which will only increase, is due to the adoption of evs, and phevs.
Big Oil says something like 25% of cars will evs/phevs by 2040. They wish. It will be more like 90% of all new passenger vehicles sold, including, trucks.
The age of oil, at least for ground transportation, is coming to a close.

Great to see an American company leading in EV. We fell far behind in Solar and Wind.

No, we do not.
In fact, in terms of per capita, America is one of the TOP 5 in BOTH solar/wind (IIRC, we are top 2 for wind).
China does not even come CLOSE to what America does in terms of per capita.
And when it comes to emissions / KWH, we are superior to most nations.

You really have to quit pushing propaganda. If you are the least bit concerned about CO2/AGW, then you would quit repeating lies and focus on at least learning the truth.

“1.8% market share”

Is this a share of cars sold, or all vehicle types?

It look like 1.8% of all light vehicles sold.

Think it’s all passenger vehicles. Excluding commercial trucks.

Passenger vehicles.

Doing the maths for Tesla and specially for the Model 3 with each Tesla earnings calls for Q1, Q2 and Q3, the real numbers (without wanting to quibble too much), for the TM3 up to September is 82.646 cars delivered, and a total of 154.450 Tesla cars delivered this year, up to September. Then so, Tesla needs to deliver at least 95.461 cars in Q4 to became the first auto-maker to deliver more than one quarter of million EV cars in a year. So, delivering in Q4 some 29.500 Model S and X, and some 66.000 TM3, should be enough and doable…

200,500 is a very big # and this is more than 2% of Worldwide sales. There are also 17,000 + sales of heavy duty EVs. September becomes the new #1 in Worldwide plugin sales with December-2017 being pushed aside. Normally the December’s are the lead months in a year. This shows that the trend is really changing and the plugin sales are accelerating. Even more surprising is the fact that all this happened with a big cuts in Chinese subsidies and also declines in vehicle sales in many countries. Will the September keep its lead being a quarter end month or squander it to October. Let’s see. Many countries like China, USA, Canada, Korea, Japan, Norway put up a very high sales. Tesla being #1 (just 3 vehicles) with a commanding lead is very impressive since 100% of their vehicles are EVs as opposed to other automakers who have a combo of EV + PHV. On top of that Tesla’s vehicles have a full range and can cover much longer trips with the aid of the superchargers. This is not the case of other EVs which are used only for short distance trips. The 1.3 million YTD sales also means… Read more »

This does not mean that Oil companies are giving up just like that. They are replacing Oil with Natgas in non transport sector like refinery fuel, power generation, heating, petrochemicals, etc so that all the oil can be used to produce motor fuels keeping their prices low, so that plugins cannot penetrate easily. At least 37% of the oil is used for non transport and if a big part of it are converted to transport sector, it could flood the market, reduce the price of motor fuels and reduce the sales of plugins.

Worldwide Sep-2018 sales of 200,500 units vs Dec-2017 sales of 173,020 is an increase of 27,480.

Model-3 : (23,600 vs 1,060 in Dec): Increase of 22,540
Model-S : ( 8,074 vs 7,790 in Dec): Increase of 284
Model-X : ( 7,115 vs 5,736 in Dec): Increase of 1,379

Total increase from Tesla: 24,203.

If we exclude the Tesla’s increase of 24,203 units from total increase 27,480, the net increase in Sep-2018 over Dec-2017 is just 3,277 units from all other automakers.

Conclusion: Excluding Tesla and to some extent the BYD, the rest of the folks have done NOTHING.

December is traditionally the highest month in terms of vehicle sales (don’t ask me why).
You should compare Sep 18 with Sep 17.

The other carmakers grew a lot year over year, which is the more meaningful comparison since Chinese sales and a few others are highly seasonal.

Model 3 is a big part of the global growth equation, though. And it dominates in the US right now.