Examining International Plug-In Electric Car Market Share

JUN 19 2018 BY MARK KANE 3

With our interest in plug-in electric cars spanning decades now, many of us have noted that there are dozens of completely different predictions/models for market adoption that highly vary in regards to expected market share. A recent study reviewed those models.

The new Nissan LEAF

A research team from Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratories (U.S.), the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, and German Aerospace Center (Germany), compared 40 market diffusion models from 16 countries.

The models had some similarities and differences, as well as various assumptions. Some models neglected some factors that seem to be important, and all that together results in predictions so varied that after reading several reports with all sorts of scenarios, you still can’t make sense of what’s wrong or right.

Will there be 10% market share or 30%?

Read Also – Edison Electric Institute Predicts 7 Million Plug-In EVs On US Roads By 2025

The new study was done to connect the factors and try to sort out their impact on overall plug-in electric car sales.

Thomas Stephens, a researcher at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory, who co-led the study, said:

“The value of the models is not in their predictive power, but in connecting ‘important’ factors in a way that enables us to construct some possible future based on what we know about consumer behavior and other factors.”

In the case of the U.S., very important factors in the models are price and operating costs. But in case of Germany, it turns out that energy prices and charging infrastructure are the primary considerations.

“The study focused on addressing the following specific questions:

  • What are the projected market shares for a particular region?
  • What are consumers’ primary purchase considerations?
  • What is the effect of rebates, tax credits, battery research and development and high-occupancy vehicle lane access?
  • What is the potential effect of PEV sales on petroleum demand, emissions and demand for electricity?

Though researchers cannot predict if or when PEVs could reach a tipping point in the U.S., they can help identify factors that could speed or hinder the adoption process, according to Stephens.

Based on their study, the team offers several findings for future PEV models that address important considerations neglected by many of the models they reviewed: the limited range, available charging infrastructure and the technological and projected cost improvements of batteries over time.”

Check out the article linked below for a look at various projections. Included are some nifty graphics, too.

Article: What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? – A review of international PEV market diffusion models

Source: Argonne National Laboratory via Green Car Congress

Categories: General


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3 Comments on "Examining International Plug-In Electric Car Market Share"

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I’m sure this is well and all – but it is based on research where several of the research reports are basically outdated.

Iook at the list in the bottom of the page.

Maybe I’m overly optimistic since I see a lot of EVs here in Norway – but several of the reports were from before the major brands started to show their real interest in EVs, and were willing to invest billions in technology, equipment, research and development.

I know nobody that has gone from an EV to an ICE car. Some have bought a plug in hybrid of some kind.. but it’s hard to go back to a normal ICE car.

I think EV adaptation will happen faster. Some places faster then others of course. Many will change their normal ICE car with a form of hybrid, but many will buy a pure BEVs. Some start with a hybrid, and replace that with a BEV the next time.

In other words, nobody has a freekin’ clue. I’ll stick with futurist and exponential growth/convergence specialists for future predictions. Folks like Seba and Kurzweil have a better grip on these algorithms and a pretty good track record.

Seba has been saying half of all sales by 2030 will be EV. He recently pulled that back to 2025. Bloomberg is in agreement. Seba prediction model is based on exponential growth and convergence. He has several books out there that make a lot of sense. Basically, once you see a 10x or better growth, you are probably on an exponential curve.

I love how the graphs have all different scales. Lol. Figures don’t lie, but, liars often figure.

Once aluminum solid state batteries come of age 100% EV adoption will be the cheapest option for car buyers.
So circa 2028 it is possible to have 100% BEV adoption.
History is repeating itself. There were those who said the Model T etc. would never replace horses, or that it would take forever.
We all remember watching movies and laughing when everyone answered their phone in the restaurant when cell phones first came along, this generation would not understand that joke as everyone does have a cell phone.
Tesla uses only 3% cobalt in the Model3 battery and plans to use none by year end. Cobalt is the most expensive and limited element in the BEV battery. Eliminating it allows a huge increase in scale-ability and lowering of cost. Also Tesla says the aluminum in that battery makes it lighter, cheaper and higher charge density.
When Model3 becomes the #1 selling car in the USA, displacing the Camry, maybe people will realize how fast the paradigm shift is occurring. (And Tesla shorts will get burned badly)
By the end of this year those predictions will be revised substantially.