Electric Car Mileage Share Expected To Hit 20% By 2030

AUG 13 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 15

Most of it will be driven by car-sharing fleets

report by ABI research predicts that the global electric mileage share is expected to skyrocket to 20% by 2030. This will mostly be impacted by the uptake of EVs in car-sharing fleets. In turn, this will push the utilization of EVs to higher levels, providing a healthy drop off in overall greenhouse emission rates in certain countries and cities.

However, the source of electricity to power these EVs will be the most impacting factor in terms of GHG emission rates and a general redesign of the power grid and electricity generation will be needed to sustain the drop in GHGs entirely.

In the future, consumer adoption of EVs is set to continue to grow. Currently, the EV adoption rates continue to disappoint. This year, only 2% of all vehicles set to be shipped are expected to be electric. But, there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

Local governments are increasingly becoming aware of all the benefits EVs pose for the environment: improved sustainability, reduced environmental impact and improved air quality. The latter, especially important to large cities, might prove to be the turning point in EV adoption rates in the future. This pushes cities to introduce some rather significant changes. Widespread urban emission zones, for example, aimed to ban older diesel vehicles, will eventually culminate with zero emission zones. In turn, this will allow any city to institute a completely zero-emission zone in the city center, helping reduce emission rates even further.

Vehicle electrification adoption drivers will increasingly shift from consumer-ownership to shared urban mobility, initially ridesharing followed by driverless EV car sharing in the longer term. The state of California is preparing a bill which would mandate 20% of miles traveled via ride-hailing services to be in EVs by 2023, rising to 50% by 2026. At the same time, Uber’s EV Champions program proactively pushes ridesharing electrification through education, support, and cash incentives for driver-partners. – Dominique Bonte, Vice President End Markets at ABI Research

Ultimately, there are several improvements needed to sustain large-scale electrification. One of the most important changes is the charging station and grid improvements. With those, the adoption rates for EVs will consequently improve as well.

Another driving force behind the better EV adoption rates will be the constant need to improve the business model of this industry. Companies will have to find a business model that allows continuous operation and availability from both a profitability and customer experience standpoint, which, if implemented correctly, is slated to drive the need for a widespread network of both DC fast charging and future wireless public charging facilities. Simply put, it will not be the ecology aspect that drives the adoption rates, it will be the profitability and business-oriented aspects of these decisions that make both the vehicles and infrastructure better.

With more EVs hitting the streets, the stress on the public power grid is set to increase. According to ABI Research, this will have to be mitigated with advanced demand-response and load balancing software solutions. Furthermore, advanced EV charging management and Vehicle-to-Grid systems, combined with widespread adoption of microgrids, and a more holistic, cross-vertical approach to energy management, are all going to be needed to satisfy the demands set forth by the larger numbers of EVs set to hit the roads in the future.

In the end, according to ABI Research, the EV revolution will require a fundamentally redesigned power grid itself. It will have to be tailored to accommodate a set of highly distributed and decentralized renewable energy production sources and consumption within urban environments.

The dominance of car-based mobility is not sustainable

Finally, ABI Research finds that the sustainability of car-based mobility may not be there. The urban transportation electrification is set to be multimodal. It will include EVs complemented by electric 2-wheel vehicles (bikes, scooters, and motorbikes), shuttles, boats, and future passenger carrying drones. Public transportation seems to be the key, alongside car sharing and other various electric powered modes of transport. Both Uber and Lyft are investing heavily in integrated bike and scooter sharing, further reshaping the urban mobility landscape.

Source: Green Car Congress

Categories: Charging, General

Tags: , , , ,

Leave a Reply

15 Comments on "Electric Car Mileage Share Expected To Hit 20% By 2030"

newest oldest most voted
Ricardo
UUhhh Ouch, Vanja Vanja. When you first started I thought you were another of those Tesla above all types. But now, you will soon be tasting the flames of musketeer hell. How dare you speak of public transportation and e-bikes? Here? Is there nothing sacred these days? Retract immediately. Repent now and be saved, purified by the fire of the witch cleanser. Did you not know that THEY do not produce bikes? Did you or did you not know THEY are building tunnels for cars? C A R S, cars. Not those Euro trash bikie things. Oh I can see them now shouting, yelling- I’m a proud American, I work, Do you really expect me to ride a bike to work you darn hippie. That’s all fine and dandy for them Euro scum, living on dreams and rainbows but not for me, hard working middle class American hero who is forced to commute 346 miles to work every day. If I want to go to Mcdanoldas that’s a 63 mile trip from the bloody desert I live in. This is Suburbia. Oh and don’t forget, at each one of those pesky red lights I need to show what kind of… Read more »
Cypress

LOL.

Mark.ca

I get your ignorance on the subject. I have seen a few European cities and agree that in most you don’t need a car. Then go to LA and see if you can make it without a car. It takes 25 min to drive to work, 1.5 hours by bus…..geez, let me see which one I’m going to choose. Maybe we should all move under the same rock you live…

antrik

LA? Isn’t that the place that has so horrible traffic congestion that Elon decided to start another company just to address that?… If public transport is really so bad that it’s still slower to get around than a car in rush hour traffic, I must pity you.

antrik

I think you missed the news that the Boring Company will now focus on moving pedestrians and cyclists rather than cars… Is that heresy? But how can it be, when it’s coming from the man himself? What to believe now?? Damn the prophet with a world view that isn’t actually black-or-white!

EVShopper

“The dominance of car-based mobility is not sustainable”

THIS.

Doggydogworld

EVs on smart chargers 23 hours per day are a terrific grid asset. V2H or possibly even V2G adds even more value. But rideshare EVs have a much different charging profile. They’re on the road most hours and can’t typically charge at midday when the sun is shining.

The ’20s will be interesting.

Dante

That’s a cool prospect. It would probably pay for degradation if net metering is done right.

antrik

Or you could just buy a dedicated battery, that pays just as much, but degrades less than abusing the vehicle battery not optimised for such use…

antrik

I’m pretty sure most places see less traffic at midday than during morning and afternoon rush hours? Might be enough to charge up the fleets…

TM3x2 Chris

I personally hope that by 2030 the new car BEV market share will be 50%. If that happens, the miles driven by BEV should be at least 50%.

Call me an optimist.

ffbj

Ok, you’re an optimist, but you’re my kind of optimist.

TM21

New car share at 50% for one year doesn’t mean the percentage of total cars on the road is 50%.

Mikael

You do understand the difference between market share of new sales and total fleet share?

Even in Norway the EV share of miles is barely noticeable.

ffbj

Don’t forget tunnels.