Edison Electric Institute Predicts 7 Million Plug-In EVs On US Roads By 2025

SEP 15 2017 BY MARK KANE 22

The Edison Electric Institute and the Institute for Electric Innovation have released a plug-in vehicle sales study for the U.S., with a forecast of 1.2 million annual sales by 2025.

Plug-in vehicle sales forecast – (The Edison Electric Institute and the Institute for Electric Innovation)

If the growth will be linear, as EEI & IEI assumes, in 2025 total plug-in vehicle fleet will reach 7 million. Today, it stands at just over 690,000 sales (through August 2017).

The reports also indicates that some 5 million charging ports would be needed to support the 7 million plug-ins.

For our money, the report is actually far too conservative, as it doesn’t account for the “early days” of electric vehicle adoption vs. the modern era.

A typical model generation lasts about 7 years, and 2018 marks the 8th year of the young industry.  As importantly, next year is the start of aggressive CARB minimum sales requirements for all-electric vehicles.

True to form, new and much improved offerings have started to arrive (Chevrolet Bolt EV, Tesla Model 3, 2018 Nissan LEAF, Toyota Prius Prime, Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, etc), and automakers content to sit out the segment during gen 1 are now entering the market with their own competitive products.  For an example of not being particularly current with the trends, check out the report’s plug-in sales figures for Toyota in 2025 in the chart below.

The results in have shown 40% gains in the first half of 2017 with only a handful of these new offerings arriving, and although July and August brought that down into the low 30s, the year-end rush will assuredly end the year close to a 50% gain overall.   This growth translates to about ~220,000 sales in 2017. By 2020 alone, there are more than a dozen new offerings already announced for the US market that will have over 200 miles of range, and the total number of plug-in vehicle offerings is expected to cross 65.

To achieve a level of 1.2 million sales in 2025 as the study suggests, that would translate in a growth rate of just 24%, far below 2017’s average, and well below 2018 – projected by many to be the best year by far for the plug-in industry in the US (perhaps doubling 2017’s result).   With that said, the report itself seems to be aware it might be on the low side:

“Given manufacturer projections, the EEI and IEI forecast is reasonable and likely conservative.”

We have to give the study credit, attempting to put down a OEM by OEM estimate for 2025 is pretty gutsy – still, it shows that the authors aren’t really that aware of the current EV market or what those OEMs have in the pipeline. Note the case of Toyota, the Japanese company might sell close to 48,000 Prius Primes in the US in 2018….let alone in 2025 (The Edison Electric Institute and the Institute for Electric Innovation)

Summary the report:

“The Edison Electric Institute (EEI) and the Institute for Electric Innovation (IEI) developed a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales forecast through 2025, including both plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles, and identified the associated charging equipment infrastructure needs. This paper identifies both the scope and scale of charging infrastructure needed to support PEVs and the different approaches to infrastructure build-out.

The results show the following:

  • Annual sales of PEVs will exceed 1.2 million vehicles in 2025, reaching more than 7 percent of annual vehicle sales by 2025 (see Figures 1 and 2).
  • The stock of PEVs (i.e., the number of PEVs on the road) is projected to reach 7 million by 2025, up from 567,000 at the end of 2016 (see Figure 3). This is about 3 percent of the 258 million vehicles (cars and light trucks) expected to be registered in the United States in 2025.
  • About 5 million charge ports will be required to support 7 million PEVs in 2025 (see Figure 3). This represents a significant investment in PEV charging infrastructure.1

Growing customer demand, corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, and declining battery costs are all major drivers of PEV sales. A continued decline in battery costs will result in increased cost- competitiveness of PEVs with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. However, relaxing current CAFE standards (54.5 MPG by 2025) will put downward pressure on PEV sales. Regardless, customers are buying PEVs in record numbers, and the demand for charging infrastructure is increasing.

Most PEV charging infrastructure to date is paid for by the entity that “hosts” the charging equipment (the “site host”), such as a homeowner, a commercial property owner, or a public entity. The PEV charging marketplace is evolving, and different approaches to providing the charging infrastructure for the PEV market are being tested. Electric companies are wellpositioned to help develop PEV charging infrastructure.”

See full report: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast Through 2025 and the Charging Infrastructure Required – June 2017

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22 Comments on "Edison Electric Institute Predicts 7 Million Plug-In EVs On US Roads By 2025"

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It makes sense.

As a trade organization, I hope the Edison Institute does all it can to encourage its members to push for and support PEV adoption AND STOP attacking homeowner solar!

The fact of the matter is that the two disruptive technologies go together like peanut butter and jelly and any attack on either one will depress sales of the other which would be counter-productive to a fully electrified future.

An interesting irony with the “Edison” Institute – At first glance, It’s namesake Thomas Edison would have seen the EV as vindication for his position that DC is superior than AC, as all EV batteries are DC-based. But his nemesis Westinghouse would have slyly smiled and pointed out that virtually all EV’s have internal inverters, converting the DC to 3 phase AC to run AC motors, using either permanent magnet rotors or (as in Tesla-Motor’s Model S and X) induction rotors (bringing Nikola Tesla a double-barreled grin!).

They are about half right.

Why do you 5 million charge ports for 7 million vehicles, when over 95% of charging is done at home, and in the U.S. we have 125 million homes, all of them have electricity?

Lets look at their logic for what we need in charge ports to what we know about gas pumps. 185k stations give them 10 pumps a piece that’s 1.85 million pumps servicing over 250 million cars.

So why in the heck would we need near an 1:1 ratio of charging ports?

While it will likely be different in 2025, gas stations only need 10 minutes to fill a car. Charging ports today need over an hour for the same thing. That alone makes the need 6x higher.

But when 99% of your driving is done at home, the demand for public chargers will be exponentially less than those of gasoline pumps. Even if you spend more time on an individual session.

My own situation as an example, fill up 1-2 times in a volt in a typical year. If I only had a large battery (e.g. Bolt) that would be zero except for extended road trip situations (moderate road trips to the country are within battery range with charging at end point for return home).
How much of the population is going on an extended road trip on any given day? I’m going to say far less than 1%.

Now consider that vs the need for a gasoline pump in the legacy model – everyone has to visit one at some point, usually weekly or biweekly.

Then you see why 1:1 is a little ridiculous in overkill.

The only reason I would see for such an overbuild is to cover geography, not usage. i.e. most would sit idle, the number is simply to have charging in a given region/neighbourhood that otherwise would have nothing.

They don’t say “public”. Personal charging port in private parking space also costs some money and needs to be installed.

There is link to original report and it has all explanations and models used.

When I say “public” I am referring to any plug outside of a private residence.
Private businesses that want to offer to customers and/or employees included.

It is assumed that every EV will have a private home charger, otherwise they’re likely not to be in the early adopter group strictly on inconvenience. If you have to visit a station to charge and wait around, those people are far more likely to stick to the gas pump model.

I find this EXTREMELY conservative. in 2025 they are saying Tesla will only be selling 200K vehicles annually. They are likely to beat that in 2018 alone. Writers claim that is based on automaker announcements? I’ve never heard Tesla claiming only 200K sales in 2025.

That’s right.

Tesla will be producing and delivering more than two million EV’s in 2025.

But not in the US… that will be globally.

They might possible be doing 1 million in the US if everything goes perfectly until 2025.

I was going to also bring tat up. Tesla will sell >200k in the US in 2018 and likely well over 1 million / year by 2025 after they have the Y, pick-up (and maybe SUV version of that) and likely a sports car (roadster II. I would not be surprised if they also did not jump into the “citycar” market — something in the $20’sk region.

EEI utilities will chase rate-payers to the ends of the earth, to fund projects, but won’t collectively organize to promote what could be their biggest source of load growth over the next 10 years.

Suppose the CARB states follows India’s (and potentially China’s) lead and says “100% EV only in 2030”?

Auto industry would have to start ramping up for that, and that alone would force more than 1.2M EV sales in 2025.

I would have liked to have seen a break down on the charging infrastructure numbers. For instance, what percentage of the 5 million needed charging stations will be located at home. I have heard that some 40% of CA EV owners are charging at home with rooftop solar.

No S-curve.
Not a serious report.
Tesla 200,000 cars in 2025 in the USA?
Nissan 6% sales in 2025? after 4% in 2018?
Hyundai-Kia selling as much PEV in 2025 as BEV in 2019?

Here are few of the 7 million that will be needed. K-Man new Chicago SC. Pretty Nifty:
10 stalls charging at 74kw(not-shared).

Honestly, one has to wonder just how lazy and clueless these “forecasts” are, which assume linear growth. Market share in a disruptive tech revolution generally, if not always, follows the classic “S-curve” pattern.

I still say that one could get results just as accurate as these “analyst forecasts” by getting a team of monkeys to throw darts at a target.

TL;DR: pro-electric organizations like electrons and predict rosy future for electrics. Go electricity!

The various PEV forecasts shown seem pessimistic. I would predict that Tesla alone will produce 500k-1M BEVs per year in 2025 [think X+,Y,pickup], plus Volkswagon,
Nissan and others have pledged to outdo Tesla by then. Non-Tesla brands will be limited by the extent and quality of the fast charge rollout.

As soon a I saw the projection of Fiat-Chrysler selling more PEVs than Nissan and >50% of what is projected for Tesla I wrote this “report” off. Nothing to see here, moving along.

If Toyota sells 2,352,000 of their brand in 2025 we all might be on our way to a desert.