This Week Rings Warning Bell for Gas-Powered Cars

Tesla Model 3


Was this week a turning point for electric vehicles?

This was a dramatic week for EVs. There was mid-week news of Tesla turning a profit in Q3, following soaring sales of the Model 3. A day earlier, the Spanish capital put its “Madrid Central” plan into force – effectively banning all non-electrified cars from the heart of the city. The Madrid action follows reports earlier this month that the UK could move up its internal-combustion ban and Denmark wants to go completely all-electric, even banning sales of hybrid cars by 2035.

If that wasn’t enough, let’s rewind to Monday for two analytical articles that might have escaped your attention amid all the other EV news. The first is from Carmi Turchick, who discloses in his post for Seeking Alpha that he works for Tesla and has stock options. So you might expect him to describe the latest EV trends as an “existential threat” to automakers. The article is entitled “Tesla And The Coming Automotive Industry Disruption.”

Talking someone into an ICE car who wants an EV will be like trying to sell a rare bloody steak to a vegetarian.

He writes, “As batteries improve, the range will keep going up, cost and weight will come down, speed of charging will increase, acceleration will get faster (and it is already very fast), and many more improvements are just a matter of programming.” Turchick believes that these trends will become a problem for traditional automakers as they respond to Tesla and Chinese EV producers.

“They will be making EVs that their own ICE cars simply cannot compete with,” he writes. It will reach a point where ICE cars will be undesirable to mass consumers. “Talking someone into an ICE car who wants an EV will be like trying to sell a rare bloody steak to a vegetarian,” writes Turchick. A true believer, he predicts the transition will be “far faster than most are expecting.”

Trouble Ahead

As I said, these views are not surprising from a Tesla employee. But check out what Maryann Keller, an august auto analyst for four decades, wrote on LinkedIn on the very same day. Keller is the author of the 1989 book “Rude Awakening” about the rise of Japanese automakers in the United States. Her piece is entitled, “Electric Vehicles Will Destabilize the Automotive Industry.”

Keller starts with these words of warning: “The auto industry is in trouble.” She says that vehicle electrification will transform the automotive landscape because it eliminates transitional barriers to entry, such as the amount of required investment capital and the expertise need to make a vehicle. The established automakers are protected from new entrants as long as internal combustion engines and transmissions dominate the market. But, critically, they are not protected against the rise of EVs.

When it comes to electric vehicles, the investment and design expertise needed to build a car are less expensive and easily available to a startup. EVs have fewer parts, and manufacturing all of the critical elements, including the battery, can be outsourced. And instead of making the investment to produce engines and transmissions internally, EV assemblers can simply source the most important and expensive component, the battery from any number of suppliers.

Keller says that Tesla “stunned the auto industry” with its fast progress. But she also points to China as the “primary benefactor as battery-powered vehicles alter the competitive landscape.” Keller says the rise of EVs will enable China to establish an “OPEC-like vise over battery capacity…and the critical materials needed for the production of lithium-ion batteries.”

Her analysis reaches a level of panic as she describes how established automakers will soon lose what makes them special – the characteristics of their engines and transmissions. “Never before has the global automotive establishment confronted such fundamental and imminent challenges,” she concludes.

Categories: China, Tesla

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139 Comments on "This Week Rings Warning Bell for Gas-Powered Cars"

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As Prices Come Down EV’s Will Become The Obvious Choice More So.. 🙂

Bingo! There’s just enough competition (plus one big honkin’ disruptor whose name rhymes with Fesla, plus the potential for new players thanks to the lower barriers to entry thanks to EVs) that will eventually force companies to roll out newer and cheaper EV technology as batteries continue their steep price decline. In a tightly controlled market — an oligopoly or even a cartel, like OPEC — the suppliers can prop up the price, but that won’t work in the car biz. Brute force economics will bring the EVs in droves. Not as soon as we’d like, and the path from here to there will be anything but straight and predictable, but the destination is clear.

Spot on. And they are likely sticker price competitive in 3 years or so. Tesla already is. Since operating and maintenance cost of much less, the reality is staring everyone in the face who cares to open their eyes.
EV’s are simply faster, safer, better, cheaper. In five short years it will be difficult for anyone to justify buying an ICE vehicle.

Thanks for the link to Maryann Keller’s article.

This article about the “Madrid Central” zone is in English:

City center ICE bans are the future, and will have even more impact than tax credits and other incentives.

I think there are tons of cities that should do this.

I think it’s dumb to have dense city centers jammed packed with oil burning cars.

The EV’s will make urban life a lot better even if the number of cars stays the same.

After spending five days in an apartment in Barcelona, I can sure sympathize with getting rid of oil burners. As I rode a bicycle around the city, the level of pollution, especially from unregulated diesels was suffocating at times.

Interestingly, the only EVs I could find were the small trash trucks used for collection in the gothic and old city sections where streets were tiny. I couldn’t find a single EV car anywhere in Barcelona. Obviously, Spain has very far to go in order to gain acceptance of EVs.

from someone who drives an EV……duh.

The warning bell has been being rung by Tesla for the last 4 years. None of the legacy car companies are paying attention.

The humorous part in all this, is that Germany, S. Korea, Japan, all fear Tesla more than China. Tesla has been working to MOVE all these legacy western companies to EVs, while China is working to destroy them. Yet, these other nations will work with China and allow themselves to be destroyed. The west is INSANE

What angers me is how Nissan and Chevy and Mitsubishi along with BMW make lame excuse after lame excuse about not raising EV production.

Until there is an EV that’s available in the low $20k’s all this talk is just a bunch of hot air. Take a look at how many cars are sold at $50k. What Tesla doesn’t want to become is a niche manufacture like Porsche.

I have a 2013 Volt that was bought for $43k.
I’m selling it 5 years later for $10k
I’m buying a $55k Model 3
I’ll be selling it in 5 years for $20k if I’m lucky. And it’ll have a long life left after I’m done with it.

What does that have to do with his point? You may be happy to pay $43-55k for a car, but most people are not.

How many people are buying $55k Nissan, Chevy or Mitsibushi sedans? How many people do you thing would be willing to do so if they electrified their lineup?

His point is pretty damn obvious really… people with less money tend to buy used cars. You’re making the ridiculous assumption that the only EVs people ever buy, are new EVs.

As the market gets more and more used models, they become more affordable in general — and this effect occurs BEFORE new models start coming down in price!

And most of these EV’s drive better than ICE and literally pay for themselves in fuel savings.

In fact, we bought a used 2013 85 MS in 2015. It was 55K. It is now high 40s.

If you are only keeping EVs for 5 years, you should be leasing, not buying. The combination of large tax credits on new EVs and significant year-to-year advancements in EV tech means you will continue to take an absolute beating on resale value.

You’re not paying attention to EV resale values. Outside of the Leaf, which drops like a brick, they’re pretty astounding on the whole.

Which EVs are you referring to… the Model S? Because you’re certainly not referring to the Volt (see the example above), and you just said you’re not referring to the Leaf.

Outside of Tesla-specific demand, EV resale value is terrible. I can personally speak to this from my own experience of leasing a Volt: on paper, my $45k 2013 Volt should have had a $25k residual value at the end of my 39mo lease, but that number was far higher than the actual value, since (after the tax credits I just cited) I was able to buy a fully-loaded 2017 Volt with no mileage and a new warranty for about $3k more than it would have cost me to buy out my leased 2013. If I had to take a guess, I’d say my 2013 Volt sold for about $18k, which is 60% depreciation in about 3.5 years. Not good.

So in conclusion, if you care about depreciation, you shouldn’t buy an EV unless at least one of the three following conditions apply:

1) you intend to keep it for at least ten years
2) the tax credits are no longer available
3) you’re buying a Tesla

In 5 years the resale value of ICE cars will be close to zero regardless of the brand.

So you think over 95% of cars sold in 2018 will be worth “close to zero” in 5 years?

I mean, I’m not exactly optimistic about the foreign policy of the Trump Administration, but it sounds like you believe a nuclear holocaust is imminent.

Well, with all these coming “Tesla Killers” Coming, in 2-4 years, since they are also EV’s, and Tesla “Kills It” when 90% of the Metrics of an ICE Vehicle is compared to it (loses just a Bit on ‘Refilling Speed’ vs ‘Recharging Speed’; and a bit on ‘Refill Just about Anywhere’ vs ‘Only’ charging a Tesla on Sperchargers, Public Chargers, Destination Chargers, CHAdeMO Chargers, Serviced Camp Sites, at Home, Malls, etc!), they will also be eating into their own and competitors ICE Sales, as a Jaguar Fan, might buy a Jaguar EV, or a Porsche EV instead, but either way, each EV Bought, loses sales for ICE Vehicles in their own lines, and in competition’s lines! It also puts an unwanted ICE Vehicle into more and more used car lots! And, as Used EV’s also take a “Beating” on Resale Value, they then become viable for the lower end of the Auto Buyer Marketplace, making Used ICE Sales feel the Pressure, too! Conversion of Used ICE Vehicles, to simple EV’s, might become those unwanted vehicles ‘Only Hope’ of another life, at some date! As the Number of Cities Ban ICE Vehicles from Entering, even USED Car Lots will feel pressure!… Read more »

I would concur. As a second car, a used Leaf today is a much better deal than any comparable ICE vehicle, which have much higher maintenance and operation cost. As long as you don’t need it to go out of town, it’s the way to go from an economic standpoint.

Actually, at this time, buy a used MS.
3 years, I was suggesting buying a used leaf ( from Colorado north ) if you were waiting for M3. Now, a 3+ y.o. used MS is a great buy.

Wrong. Our 2013 85 MS is high 40s.

4) you’re buying a Jaguar I-Pace.

Nope. I-pace will very likely lose resale value.

You obviously need to subtract the tax rebate from the original buying price *before* calculating depreciation.

You’re right. What I meant (and originally said) was “resale value.”

The moment that the tax credits end, used EV resale value will increase. Right now, used EV resale prices must compete with new EVs that have up to $10k on the hood.

Volt is a hybrid, not an EV.

It’s a hybrid electric vehicle with a plug and it has a limited electric-only range. It is still an EV, but just an EREV or PHEV. It is not a hybrid in the traditional (non-plug) sense. We only cover plug-ins at InsideEVs, and to us, a PHEV is an EV, as well as a plug in. It is just another form or EV. Yes, it’s true it is not a BEV, but it is surely and EV.

And the horrific depreciation. 75% loss in value after just 5 years for his Volt? Is that standard or did his just have mega miles on it?

The Leaf is the fastest depreciating car. But that’s not accounting for the tax incentives. But then again, you can’t sell a car that has 100 miles of range without a big tax incentive.

Many of us thought Nissan would support EVs. Turns out they were making a half-a$$ed approach to selling what turned out to be a whole bunch of compliance EVs, 300,000 EV chassis’ waiting for a good battery. 300,000 customers left high and dry. Ask me if I would buy another Nissan…answer: never!

Bet in 5 years, it will still be in 30k.

I think Tesla would be perfectly happy to become the EV version of BMW, and I think that’s probably the most effective role for them. Tesla has already stated that the Model 3 is the cheapest they intend to go in the auto market.

“Tesla has already stated that the Model 3 is the cheapest they intend to go in the auto market.” – Correct, but…..*** Update: Elon has also said he thinks that Tesla Could make a Smaller EV, in about 4-5 years, at the $25,000 price point (Most likely a Base Range Model of 240 or so miles range, without Full Self Driving, but maybe with Enhanced Autopilot Features, for safety)!

So, maybe After the Tesla Pickup, or Before it, or at the same time!

I think they will do between 150-200 MPC, but we will see.

The Bluestar/Model E/Model 3 was originally supposed to be the car you just described. So depending on the age of your quote, you may be referring to a car that already exists.

No, musk said that BM3 comment some 3 years ago. Now, they intend to go to low-mid 20s.

You conveniently ignore the fact that most of these $40K EVs built by other automakers have low lease prices and incentives. That $40K Bolt or $35K Leaf have $7500 fed tax credits if you really want to buy.

Tesla is a premium brand. It doesn’t need to sell economy EVs. Leave that to the economy automakers.

“Tesla is a premium brand. It doesn’t need to sell economy EVs.” Evidently as the $35,000 Base Tesla is currently non-existent.

And it always will be, as far as I can tell. By stopping people from buying a non-Tesla EV they can actually afford, instead holding out for years waiting for a $35k leasable Model 3 that Tesla appears to have zero good-faith intention of producing, Tesla has caused additional years of ICE air pollution. Not cool. Not green. Tesla is a luxury brand and a Tesla is a status symbol; that’s a key reason why people are willing to pay so much for them. And the economics don’t work for them to dip below the $45k mark if they want to continue as a going concern. Tesla needs to be honest with its investors and the public about that.

Tesla High Profit Models First………. Elon’s a business man first and an environmentalist second, no doubt about that……… The most important reason why Tesla should produce the high-end version first is it makes financial sense. I don’t believe Elon when he says it’s because they can’t produce the 35k version with a good profit. The profit margins today would be the same for low end, mid-range, and long range, when you compare the cost of the batteries that would be deducted. But the higher cost models mean the overall revenue is higher and this means the upfront cost, Cap Ex, etc., are spread across greater amounts of revenue and profit. This is what makes top line and bottom line look better. ……….. The other key is incentives are better served and utilized at high end, because it allows them to sell more of those high-end cars. Many of the low-end buyers, would not be able to fully utilize 7,500 of tax credit, which equates to about 100k in gross income. ……….. Tesla’s only constraint is supply. And until supply outstrips demand for higher end Model 3’s, they will not produce a single 35k version. They say 4 to 6 months.… Read more »

Yet all these supposedly too expensive $30,000+ EVs are sold out in most markets for half a year at least, often a full year or more…

On the other side of this equation is it will start to become very difficult to sale a used ICE vehicle as EV’s become more prevalent. Example: You can get a used 2015 Leaf for 10 to 13k with 20,000 miles on it. That car will do everything you need except take you out of town on weekends. For most people, this makes complete sense economically because the cost of ownership is so much lower than an ICE vehicle when you add in gas and maintenance. In particular if it’s your families second car. As used EV’s become prevalent, it’s likely difficult to find buyers for an used ICE vehicle, they’ll be sold at huge discounts, which further erodes the desire for anyone to buy a new one.

Those companies are offering sub-$40k and sub-$30k EVs… people don’t want to buy them, so raising production won’t help. Should every automaker abandon the mass market and compete in the luxury space with Tesla? Tesla has already said that the Model 3 is the least expensive car they plan to make for the foreseeable future.

People don’t but them because of range and lack of fast charging.
Also battery life and degradation is a factor.

These problems will be solved in the next 5 years.

Also most of the first gen BEV wer butt ugly. I own a 2015 Leaf and I still think it is simply fugly.

Previous 1st generation compliance EVs (besides the e-Golf), have mostly been “fugly”. It’s changing rapidly now that Tesla has graduated out of the sand box, and onto the sand lot!

Range is directly related to the cost of the car. So is a thermal management system, which impacts battery life and degradation. If all automakers were selling EVs exclusively north of $50k, these things would not be the issues they are… and we’d also have a lot fewer EV sales. (Or maybe we wouldn’t, and every rich person in America would already have an EV! But that’s an alternate reality few are willing to champion.)

As for fast charging: either building a network is a robust self-funding endeavor, or it isn’t. If it is, then the blame should not be with the automakers, but with companies like ChargePoint and EVgo. If it isn’t (spoiler: it isn’t), then the money needs to come from somewhere. “Somewhere” could be “the extra margin from manufacturing exclusively high-end luxury EVs,” but that brings us right back to square 1: the cost of the car.

*** Update: Elon has also said he thinks that Tesla Could make a Smaller EV, in about 4-5 years, at the $25,000 price point, and.. If they did, that would be like an Alien Invasion of EV’s, as to Demand! Far more challenging to ALL Traditional Auto OEM’s, than anything Tesla has done, or is planning on delivering, in the near future!

Except people are actually buying pretty much all the sub-$40,000 EVs makers are willing produce.

Nope. Other Tesla, no EV is in higher demand than they can supply.
In fact, all other EVs have too high of supply forcing down $, esp on resale.

There are thousands of Leafs and Bolts available for purchase right now, and that’s been the case for a long time.

The only thing stopping me from driving off in a EV is getting a used one for under $6,000 with 150 miles of range on it.

Or if they had a kit for $3,000 were you could trade in a 24 kilowatt battery on a leaf and drop in a 60 kilowatt one.

The issue is mainly about range and if these EV makers could raise the supply of them.

Similar boat here. The economics don’t _quite_ make sense yet, but they are getting there in a hurry. There’s some really great deals to be had on used Volts and Leafs. As soon as the economics make sense, there’s going to be quite the rush. A bit like the tipping over of a boat – once the water comes in, there’s no stopping it.

I think when the Model 3 SR goes up for sale, you’ll see many more Leafs and Volts in the classifieds.

Maybe, but the real deal to be had is on lease returns that still have original warranty remaining.

For most 2-car families with a house and one gas vehicle, range is a non-issue. In our household, on a day-to-day basis, whoever plans to drive the longer distance that day takes the EV. Road trips use the gasmobile. We had only two days in the first year where one person drove more than 100 miles in a day, and needed to take the gas vehicle. Other 2-car families will be different, of course, but the avg. commute is 14 miles, and 95% commute <40mi. Single-car families and singles of course will either need bigger batteries, or plug-in hybrids. But I think most 2-car families could get into EVs very cheaply (e.g. a used 2015 Leaf). You could say that an EV+ICE is a "hybrid family fleet." In our case, we cut our gasoline bill by 70%, with no need for the latest-greatest EV.

I could have written this. I got a used 2015 Leaf 2 years ago as our second car and it works precisely because of the reasons you mention. And at 7000 miles but $24k less than brand new, it was a no brainier.

So, so ditto, and so looking forward to future depreciated EVs.

That’s what I hope to do, however with just a single 20km (return) daily commute and 4000km annual mileage an EV has to cost around the same as an ICE, but they don’t and probably wont for the next 5 or so years (in this segment).

A shame, but a fact of life.

Get a used EV off lease. We got our top of the line electric orange 2014 Fiat 500e for ~$9K!

Not true! Just a fact of life “For You!” Everyone has a different value system, and that is yours! No problem! And there are others with a similar set of numbers, quite likely! But it is not everone!

There is little excuse for most two car families to NOT have an EV. Get a used Leaf or 500e or Focus Electric, etc. There is little excuse for families who use a second car around town to use a gasser.

A used 500e?! The total lease right now for a new one after all credits in CA is $4800 for 3 years 10k miles per year!!! What a ridiculous deal! That is about $50 per month after gas savings…how many pay more for their phone bill?

yep, we have a used Fiat 500e that’s used 99% of the time. The subaru is just sitting most of the time waiting to lug things or help us escape a hurricane.

And, while I could ‘Afford’ having 2 cars, I am only granted 1 parking space in my Apartment!

I still have my old first EV Conversion, bought in 2006, but have under body rust work to do on that, and I worked out a deal to get an extra parking space in exchange for some grounds keeping work!

Once the car is cleaned up, it might even work as a candidate for a super short range shopping car, again with Lead Acid Batteries, or, with a LiFePO4 upgrade, a bit more useful, with increased range!

I still would rather swap out my 2010 Kia Soul ICE, for a Good EV, and a Model 3 is the best Road Tripping Option, at present!

If you can’t get a charging spot, a hybrid makes the most financial sense. You can use the fuel savings to save up for a Tesla.

Yup, same thing here with our 2015 i3 BEV. Whoever is going further that day takes the i3, with rare road trips taking our X3. We spent only $33 on gas last month, and I don’t think I’ve had to fill up yet this month. I watch the neighborhood families all around me commuting around the metro to work/school/activities in their 2 new SUV’s, and think “they must enjoy setting money on fire buying gasoline”.

Make it $8,000 and you can buy one all day long. Chevy Volt will give you that 300 miles range for the 3% of the trips you need. Buy one now and drive it for five years and you will have had tons of electric enjoyment and will be ready for the next round in 2021. I have a 2012 Volt and 2018 Model 3. The Volt is still a great car. You won’t regret it.

Except, if you see a Volt on a used car lot you’d better get it quick. They move fast.

Ocean Railroder, and here I was thinking it was that lack of a Bridge To Hawaii, and lack of Mid Ocean Charging Stations! Ha! So Dumb of me!

I’m at the 10 to 13k price point, but agreed range for these initial EV’s is a key impediment.

How many record players, film cameras, CRT (tube) TVs, VHS tape players do you see on the market today. BEVs will take over the market 100%. Chart based on InsideEVs Plug-In Sales ScoreCard.

Best Buy has record players. I saw some cheap new ones at Half Price Books yesterday. So the record player still lives.

True Marshall and LICE cars will still exist at old tyme car shows driving the 100km/year max permitted by law.

yeah but it’s an enthusiast purchase now, rather than essential.

The difference is all of those things were revolutionary changes. ICE to EV is more like an evolution which will take longer.

No, these are very similar. None of these transitions fundamentally changed how the technology is used — they were just much better than the older variants. As are EVs.

So, ‘the flew’ you’ve never actually driven an EV then.
They’re 300% better easy.

More important still: you buy an ICE now, in 5 years time it will have lost its value completely a you will not find anyone to sell it to!

Used ICE car price crash is imminent and coming very shortly and it’ll precede crash in new car market. You have to remember if you buy 1 electric car, you are expanding the supply of used ICE cars and also shrinking demand. Supply > Demand, price goes down. Even a small increase in supply can cause drastic shift in price.

Same goes with gas prices. Small decrease in base demand can crash prices. This supports the thesis that EV adoption will be quicker than experts are predicting.

Yes the used ICE cars will become cheaper, but absurdly that will make them more compelling.

If a student or college kid can buy a descent ICE car for $4K, or a used EV for $10K, well, they likely will opt for the ICE.

Why would used prices crash before new prices? That makes no sense. If people are willing to buy new combustion cars, they are certainly at least as willing to buy used ones.

New car ICE purchases have already dropped.

Take that one step further and apply to oil company stock prices.
Now is the time to move out of SPY and into SPYX or ETHO.

You dont sell an EV. You drive it until it pays for itself and then you keep driving it for free with no gas 🙂
My girlfriend’s Nissan Leaf will have paid for itself in gas savings within a few years and she is laughing past the gas pumps.

Tip from one Leaf owner to another: The absolute best thing to do in a Leaf (besides, well, you know…) is to drive it to your local gas station so you can fill the can you use for your lawnmower and/or snow blower. I do this about once a year, and I almost laugh myself hoarse.

I still go to gas stations in my EV…to get compressed air😄

One of the bits of kit that comes with the Volt is the air compressor that is powered by the cigarette lighter. I have used it dozens of times to get my tire pressure just right, and I have bailed out three people with flat tires by giving them enough air to get them to a service station. It is a really nice addition to an otherwise standard package on the Gen I Volt. Though I do miss the spare and jack…

And the even better idea, buy yourself an electric lawn mower and bypass the gas station altogether.

I’m ditching my gas mower next season either for a Ryobi riding electric mover for $2,660 or a robotic mover for $1,200. Hell, I might buy both. Have already bought a Greenworks 80V combo package for weed trimmer, hedge trimmer, blower, chainsaw, pole saw. All work off of the same 80V battery. Slowly eliminating the cylinder index (the number of ICE pistons of all my combined devices)

You should consider an electric lawnmower and snowblower. You’ll thank yourself later and you can still drive over to the gas station and laugh once in a while.

Wrong! Better to drive it to your big box store, and buy an 80 Volt Electric Mower, Trimmer, and Leaf Blower! Snow Blowers will come, Electric, too!

Ha, Ha, just like my Leaf!

But, you can Donate It to an EV Conversion Shop, or a School with an EV Conversion Training Program! 😀

Without taxpayer money they gonna sell nothing

And without Breitbart your BS wouldn’t have any fans.

And for the ultimate in hypocrisy that “jimmy” is representing for:

So according to the Koch Heads, only they and the super rich should get any tax cuts!

Hey, those oil billionaires are all about the working man, just like sheep shearing is all about sheep😉

Horrible example! If done in the spring the sheep will thank you for it.

So, the sheep don’t get harvested in the spring I take it.

Every time you squeeze that gas pump, you are funding a million trust fund babies and Saudi Arabian Social Security system.

I have no acces to “Tax Payer Money” in Ontario, Canada, but I will STILL be buying an EV!

First of all, EVs *do* sell without incentives, albeit in lower numbers. But more importantly, if combustion car owners had to pay for all the damage caused, instead of leaving it to the public at large, almost nobody could afford them.

Without tax payer money gas would cost $10 a gallon.

For all the pointing to the slow uptake of evs saying, well they are only 1% (actually 2%) of all vehicles sold,somehow that is a negative, when what it really means is that 98% of people buying cars today are potential ev buyers and will sooner or later switch to buying evs.
It’s not an argument for legacy auto but against it.
Btw, painfully obvious that another Tesla short-squeeze is going on, and it’s not pretty.

The big debate is not if, but when. You have people claiming 5 years before the majority of new cars are BEV, and you have governments setting targets for the end of non pure ICE vehicles by 2040.

Somewhere in between is probably the most realistic for BEV’s to overtake non BEV’s, but it will all depend on the other manufacturers getting in on the action, technology progressing and prices dropping.

And more good batteries making their way to EV Conversion Shops, that are smaller than Ford! (FFE, AKA “Ford Focus Electric” was a decent conversion, actually, but the first Tesla Roadster Conversion, had more range)!

Legacy makers getting on the game will have some effect, but not make a fundamental difference. If they don’t, they will simply be pushed aside by new entrants.

I don’t think there is a short squeeze going on just yet… There might be some voluntary covering I guess: but I suspect most shorters are waiting and hoping for a better opportunity to get out. (Those covering in a panic probably already did so on Thursday…) Most of the Friday rise is probably due to more organisations looking for long-term investments seeing Tesla as less of a gamble now.

50% of car sales in 2028 will be EV, if not more.

We all hope so, but the range of offerings is incredibly narrow at the moment. It will be some time before every shopping decision can legitimately include at least one EV choice.

Very true, but changing.

Finally!! It’s only been 100+ years since both Mr. Ford and Mr. Edison were driving electric cars…

It was Ford’s wife AIUI, not Mr. Ford himself?…

(As for Edison, I don’t know whether he actually had any cars himself? He did make EV batteries, though.)

Here is my plan. Already have expensive gas car, once mass adoption takes place for ev’s – gasoline prices could plummet to less than $1 a gallon. So for a few years while my gas machine works I will save some money – when it dies, I will buy the best EV available.
What you guys think? 🙂

The gas will be $1 but the carbon fees will be $5 and you’ll only be permitted to drive 100km/year.

In Europe at least, you will banned from most major cities by 2025.
But yes, by then EVs will be much cheaper and better.

How do you save money over the course of a few years by paying $3.50 per gallon, with no guarantee of $1 gas in the future? Please don’t be offended, but that logic doesn’t seem very logical. Ditch the ICE now (before any further depreciation) and drive a nice used EV. There’s no reason to wait.

If demand for gasoline drops quickly as BEV’s proliferate, the chances are that, perversely, the price of gasoline will plummet. Giving the gas drivers financial savings that they can apply to buying an electric car! Or not, as the case may be.

As we’ve seen in the last decade of gas prices, where oil shoots up in price, causing gas prices to spike, and then plummets to 40% of that price, but gas still remains high, the old saw about “Supply & Demand” is a crock.
There are many oil companies and refiners but they still operate like a monopoly screwing the economy for all it can bear.

They can do that for a short time, but I doubt that if there is a sustained reduction in demand they will be able to keep prices up. All it takes is for one of the smaller players to try to build market share… Especially when it is obvious that the total gasoline sales have peaked and are going to be dropping every year going forward.
Though it won’t matter for people on this site. Most of us drive plug ins so at most we use a gallon or two a month. My Volt has used 44 gallons of gasoline in 52 months. I couldn’t care less what the price of gasoline is.

In a weird and perverse way, these “screwing the economy” “oil companies and refiners”, are spurring on the early adoption of EVs, as their profit extraction scheme, with its wild swings in pricing, have often become financially punitive to the average joe, which in the past was the loyal fossil fuel consuming customer.

Prime example:
Oil on 6/10/2008 was at $147. per barrel, and just over a decade later, it’s currently hovering between $67. – $77. for WTI – Brent Crude.

I have doubts that gas prices will plummet at all. After all, oil supply is artificially constrained to hold up profits. There is no reason to assume that this will change materially when demand drops.

Either way, it certainly won’t happen until a significant portion of the deployed combustion car fleet is replaced — and since that will take years, it will happen only after the vast majority of new sales already converted to EVs… Why would you want to keep paying for expensive gas all that time?

From a rational point of view it makes no sense to buy a new(!) ICE car, already today. There are only three rational options: 1. buy an EV if you have the money and the right model to chose 2. repair and wait 3. buy a cheap used ICE car that suits your needs.

…or buy a bargain used EV today saving your gas + oil money to buy a better EV in 2022.

The average first owner only keeps a car for 5-6 years in the US. That’s 2025. Resale may suffer a bit, but pure ICE cars are still likely to be a significant proportion of of new cars sold in 2025, with BEV’s being in the minority (perhaps around 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 with hybrids being the third third, and that’s probably being generous depending on which markets you include).

A lot of people are going to be waiting 5-10 years if they don’t just go ahead and buy ICE.

I’m in a position where I’d like to swap one of our cars, but I don’t see any BEV’s on the horizon that make sense. Do I wait 3-5 more years, or do I just suck it up and buy another ICE in the spec I want?

That’s the position I was in at the beginning of the year when I was looking for an EV, ridiculously expensive whether you wanted to buy or lease here in the UK.
I got a new Kia Niro hybrid which was a country mile cheaper than any new EV, unfortunately until prices come down I and many of my friends in my neck o the woods are looking at 2022/25 before they become affordable.

First off, do you only buy cars for cash? Or do you buy with Financing or get one with leasing?

If you have no Non Operating Expenses now (Financing or Lease Payments), and you had them in the past, tally your full expenses for your cars since you bought them, and itemize yor costs: if maintenance is now Double your overall average, maybe a move is in order, otherwise, maybe just increase your EV Savings Plan, and wait a year, then recheck!

“Ding dong the LICE will soon be dead.”

The Model 3 sedan was the biggest warning for ICE automakers of the mass demand for a desirable BEV . Over 400k customers placing deposits for just 1 model, even before seeing it or driving it, and knowing they must wait at least a year to get it was telling. This at at time when the ICE industry was telling consumers that nobody want’s sedans, and were not ready for BEVs. ICE was wrong on both counts.

Model 3 has already disrupted midsize premium car sales in the US, and soon the entire midsize car market. Once more people actually see the EVs on the road, and get to ride/drive in one….it’s over for ICE. If VW does what they say the will do, BEVs will be like a titlewave, with so much momentum there is no stopping it. ICE will get very heavily discounted on lots to move them, costing ICE manufacturers more than if they just invested in EVs in the first place.

The production numbers VW announced thus far do not exactly sound like a tidal wave…

Of course there are other makers too; as well as Tesla continuing to ramp production. However, I suspect EV demand will keep outstripping production for another decade — which will keep up prices of EVs, and in turn also reduce pressure on combustion car prices…

EV demand outstripping supply also means though that margins should move in favour of EVs fairly quickly, and makers who delayed EV investments will be in a lot of trouble 🙂

It will be interesting to see how Ferrari and Maserati will change their tune regarding exhaust note (pun intended).

Digitized Ferrari ICE Exhaust Note Sounds, for their Future EV’s?

I have to admit that I miss the sound of my 350Z.

With due respect to Maryann Keller, the automotive industry already works relying on parts suppliers for most part of the cars tech components up to tote gearbox.
Plus reality is it takes far more than buying the bits and put them together by a start up to make a really good car that feels solid, safe and handles well overall.
That’s how and why a Mercedes is better than a Tesla or Kia or Hyundai etc.

The incumbents have many factors working against them: 1) Most are not 100% committed to EV’s and won’t be for a couple of more years. Waiting that long will be a nail in their coffin. 2) They must continue to profit from ICE vehicles while making the transition. This gets more and more difficult as declining economies of scale decrease profits for their ICE vehicles at a time when profit from EV’s may be negative as well, until they’ve reached larger volumes. 3) Can all of them even build compelling ICE vehicles. The transition to ICE and autonomous allows for compelling design changes. Some will figure this out and others will not. 4) Lagging the competition in EV’s for a few years makes it harder and harder to catch up with each passing year. 5) This list goes on and on…but last and probably most important. They all need expertise in terms of R&D, etc., they haven’t got. The auto industry for many decades has mostly been a marketing driven industry. The shift to EV’s now turns that on its head and the industry is now a technology and manufacturing driven business, much like any startup industry. They may have… Read more »