Tracking The Demise Of The Internal Combustion Engine

NOV 4 2017 BY STAFF 34

These places want to ban your gas-burning car.

Time is limited for the good ol’ internal combustion engine. With government officials and automakers encouraging propulsion alternatives, gas-powered engines may soon be just a “back in my day” type of memory.

While some automakers, like Volvo and Jaguar, have pledged to hybridize or electrify all future vehicles, the vast majority of the world’s new vehicles are still sold with traditional gasoline and diesel engines. But – and that’s a big but – many cities, states, and countries want to ban all new vehicles that run on gasoline or diesel. Here is a comprehensive breakdown of all the geographical areas planning to prevent the sale of new vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines (ICE).

China — 2030

Being the largest car market in the world, China has the potential to make a big impact on the global automotive industry. Although no specific timetable is set, the Associated Press reported that “research on formulating a timetable to stop production and sales of traditional energy vehicles” is in the works. In the meantime, China has set goals for increasing sales of hybridized and electric vehicles. By 2020, government officials want five million chargers installed, and 80 million by 2030. This improved infrastructure presumably will help the country reach its goal of “new energy vehicles” accounting for 40 percent of car sales by 2030.

Netherlands – 2030

As you can see, EV sales in 2016 took ‘just a bit’ of a hit after the December 2015 expiry of incentives

Not so many years ago, the Netherlands got off to a strong start with EV adoption, thanks to some pretty strong incentives to purchase the tech over petrol options…unfortunately, that solution was seen as too costly and those incentives disappeared in 2015, along with EV sales.

Now the country has regrouped, and has a new plan – to just outright ban the sales of all gas and diesel vans in 2030 via a zero emissions policy.  Done deal.

California — TBD

This progressive state has a goal to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 80 percent before 2050. Part of that plan, of course, may involve axing new gas or diesel cars. California Air Resources Board Chairman Mary Nichols told Bloomberg News the state’s governor has been pressured to take more aggressive environmental actions – the thought being, “why can China do this and not California.” At this time, an ICE ban is being considered, but no concrete rule is in place.

United Kingdom — 2040

Like California, British officials want to take drastic measures to improve the country’s air quality. Unlike California, the U.K. plans to ban all new gasoline- and diesel-powered cars and vans by 2040. Although no new cars with traditional engines will be allowed to be sold, current owners of vehicles running off non-renewable sources will still be able to drive their vehicles. Scotland intends to implement the same ban even earlier, by 2032.

Norway — 2025

Suck it non plug-in vehicles!

2025: the year Norway wants the sale of ICEs eliminated – that’s soon.

According to CNN Money, 40 percent of all cars sold there in 2016 were hybrid or electric vehicles, a number which almost reached 50% in September – an abnormally high market share compared to other countries. After 2025, the plan is to have only zero-emission vehicles being sold.

France — 2040

To help fight global warming, Nicolas Hulot, France’s Minister of Ecological and Solidarity Transition, intends to end the sale of gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2040.  Hybrids and EVs combined to account for just four percent of new car sales in the country 2016 – so its sounds like French officials have a large task ahead of them (although plug-ins have gained some 50% in 2017 so far, up to abut 1.8% market share)…on the other hand, 2040 isn’t all that close, so they have more than enough time it would seen.

Germany/EU — TBD

Unlike the other European countries above, Germany doesn’t want to set a date yet on the gas engine’s demise. But Chancellor Angela Merkel did tell German magazine SUPERillu that Europe needs to eventually eliminate gasoline and diesel engines.

The Chancellor intends to work with automakers to ensure a “smooth transition” into an electrified future, and will encourage them to implement new technologies to keep vehicle pollution under control.

To that end, the EU is set to introduce a new strong “carbon credit” system (somewhat similar to California) that will be a lot more stringent on automakers starting in 2020.  By 2030 , the new program will require CO2 emissions t be lowered 25-35% for cars, and 30-40% for vans, with governing body kicking in some €800 million ($944 million) to help drastically expand the charging infrastructure

India — 2030

Home to some of the world’s most polluted cities, India intends to take drastic measures to prevent further pollution. CNN Money said New Delhi officials only want electric vehicles sold in the country by 2030.

However, Anil Kumar Jain, a government energy adviser, said this is only an “aspirational target” at the moment…and India seriously dropped the ball at the dawn of this generation of plug-in vehicles, putting its automakers, which should have been able to compete strongly, at a disadvantage.

Paris, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens — 2025

The mayors of these four capital cities signed a global petition in 2016 to ban diesel cars from their streets by 2025. City officials hope this will encourage automakers to be less reliant on gasoline and diesel fuels. Official legislation is still in the works.

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34 Comments on "Tracking The Demise Of The Internal Combustion Engine"

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Far too little, far too late.

While switching to BEVs is good the switch is far too slow and the way bigger problems with global warming are really not even talked about because they are even more out there like eating meat in general and beef in praticular, a vastly over populated world, and the gigantic methane time bomb that is starting to seep into the atmosphere from under the unfreezing frozen tundra…

We simply have too many people on this planet. The solution to all problems is population control.

Switching from ICE to electric will make walking down the sidewalk much more pleasant, however. Once the clear benefits are seen overnight, ICE will be banned everywhere in short time.

The economies of Russia and Saudi Arabia will collapse.

Population is what it is, we are required to mitigate now. Cleaner electrical power and transportation are good starts.

Population Control is Easy.
Someone tell Bill Gates.
It’s simply Global Education, keep young girls in school longer. More education delays the reproductive cycle and problem solved.

But, we really need to make this a Global Emergency, just like Global Warming. Where the predictions from most of the climate modeling has been TOO Conservative. Global Warming is coming faster than most models predicted.

mx said:

“Population Control is Easy.
Someone tell Bill Gates.
It’s simply Global Education, keep young girls in school longer. More education delays the reproductive cycle and problem solved.”

Finding a solution to human overpopulation is easy. You suggest a good one; that would be far less likely to create social unrest, active resistance, and even revolution than mandatory birth control.

Implementing that solution is what is an intractable problem in most countries. The poorer countries, which can’t afford much in the way of public education, are also the countries where girls and young women are most likely to be married off at a young age.

“The solution to all problems is population control.”

Absolutely. Except for the minor detail that the world’s rich nations have already solved the population problem (most such populations are actually shrinking, which is why we have immigration – to prop up our social security programs). And those same rich, industrialized nations also just happen to be the primary drivers of climate change and industrial-scale damage to the environment.

Sooo… oops.

It seems that our unquenchable thirst for luxury and convenience is actually the real problem. Once we can afford to burn gas for everything and eat cows like they’re going out of style, we invariably do. So perhaps we can find some better ways of going about this instead.

Most likely you are right.
Personally, I am hoping that AMOC will stop as opposed to the slowing that it is doing,
and that it will force the other circulations to stop.
If so, that will force a small ice age, which is exactly what we need.

Yup. We need solar and wind and other green power to replace coal too at the same time as we cut down on oil consumption. And everything has to happen faster.

With that said, major energy transitions have traditionally taken roughly 40 years to happen, and we are less than a decade in. It isn’t going to happen as fast as we want, and there are people who are working as hard as they can to try and make it never happen. Sadly, they are currently in power in the US.

And some of them post regularly right here on InsideEvs.

I disagree abandoning combustion is “too little”. Transportation emits more CO2 than the power sector. It’s the largest source of emissions in the U.S., rising above 2Gt.

You may not intend it, but the gang here seems to send a “May as well keep driving petrol” message. Hmmm.

First, you’re assuming electric is worse to drive, but if we’re talking about the scientist Warren links to and his weighty talk, the truth is we don’t know what shocking the planet is going to do. So, the question is do we do it more? “Run toward the wall faster”, as they say.

Dan, Carbon dioxide from cars and coal power plants cannot be filtered or catalyzed away. “cleaner” doesn’t do it, and “more efficient” is becoming angels on a pin. If you want efficiency (along with the quiet, the acceleration and the handling), electric is how you cut your CO2 numbers by two thirds.

The U.S. is in love with natural gas. At 700lbs/MWh, and maybe 3 miles per KWh, there’s your two thirds drop from petrol’s ~20 lbs/gallon. Why not save money, enjoy yourself and do the right thing?

Yep dirty Diesels in small vehicles going, The auto industry brought this on itself. Emissions free zones along with the existing congestion charging. With Oxford in the UK already introducing laws to enforce zero emissions in certain areas, not law yet, but as good as. Not sure how they are going to enforce this law, lots of devices with emisions detectors on them, somehow identifying the offending vehicle? wind direction correction and reading the number plate, sending a fine, that goes through the courts system. Hmm, not so sure they’ve thought that one through. Maybe vehicles log their own data securely some form of telemetry. Still as a average 2040 is over 20 years away, a lot can happen in 20 years of polytics, we may have so much renewable energy were producing e-fuels to remove CO2 from the environment producing clean pure hydrocarbon fuels that just release water vapour and the original co2, and Hydrogen for fuel cells or IC use producing just water vapour out the tail pipe. Especially when you plot the energy density of batteries since 1991 to now, a linear line of progress of 2-3 % a year, it’ll be decades before it matches the… Read more »

The dissing and discombobulation, of the ICE propulsion and pollution emanating automotive systems worldwide, and it now looks like cleaner air, water, and land, are becoming the bane of the oil and gas extraction corporations, and their downstream incineration industries.

Who would have guessed that there were limits to the amount of toxic filth, that industry could foist on the once compliant, ignorant or misinformed, consumer?

As a side note: Tell your local Gas Station owner to get into Local Solar Installs now before his business Tanks.

Engines will be running 40 years from now, the hope and it will be gang just keeps on hoping.

IC engines have improved with Mercedes Formula One team now achieving > 50% conversion of the energy in the gasoline equivelent fuel to mechanical energy. Using Turbulent Jet Ignition that eliminates NOx emissions through low temperature combustion.

Batteries are just not keeping up with the development pace of efficiency improvements in the IC engine, the energy density gap is increasing, Since 2002 the only reason energy density has increased has been packaging overhead reductions, leading to fires in the Galaxy S7. A IC engine has a steel protection around it, now they’re using fibre reinforced polymer engines, with low temperature combustion, very high energy density, only the steel head/liner to heat up.

California smorgas board should grow a pair and at the least, say no new registering of ICE vehicles in 2030. In addition, if you move to the state and do not register it, then you are fined massive amounts of money.

With this approach, it means that any ICE vehicles that somebody owns, is grandfathered in, BUT, you may not transfer it to others to be driven on the road.

Looks like I’m moving to Norway in 2025. If I survive the next 8 years here, that is.

Seems just a bit premature at this point, seeing as there just have to be more ICE’s manufactured per year than ever, what with the explosive growth in China and India of late.

1% EV market penetration in the states (that’s really all it is? I thought we had passed that benchmark long ago) is not really threatening the refinery business, although it could be argued that CAFE standards are.

Europe, what with their only slightly higher electricity costs but astronomical gasoline, and fuel oil costs should have HUGE market penetration by now.

I think I understand the very low acceptance in the states since there isn’t any great benefit to the average consumer, commensorate with the increased price of an ev, but operating cost in europe just has to be cheaper with EV’s.

Don’t understand why they haven’t embraced them wholeheartedly.

The timeline has in mind the drop in EV Battery Pricing.
In 2-5 years, batteries and an electric motor will be cheaper to produce than the ICE solution.

Once that happens, the market should explode.

Problem is battery energy density isn’t actually getting better, they are just reducing packaging overhead, that is causing fires, the Galaxy S7 anyone. Energy density increased from 91-02, then it was packaging giving us 2-3% a year increase. Meanwhile Mercedes F1 have achieved over 50% thermal efficiency in ICE engines with near zero NOx emissions using Turbulent Jet Ignition, the energy density of ICE have improved a huge amount, with clean combustion. E-FUels from excess renewable energy producing hydrocarbon fuels is now an industry, with 3M and Bosch building a factory now. Reality and Facts show a different outcome than what this story is promoting

This is largely delusional; the ICE just keeps getting cleaner and more efficient; Democratic governments will not be able to ban it. I’m a liberal, Drive a PHEV and would vote against any party that pushed that agenda.

Guess oil loving Trump has one vote for his re-election. Possibly the only one?

Ok – I am sorry that you label yourself in that way.

ICE’s are getting more efficient – yes by a little. And as they do so, they get more complicated and expensive. Then price becomes an issue and EVs naturally are cheaper.

But have you heard about the diesel cheating issue – I think that helped prove that diesels at least are not nearly as clean as they reported to be.

I do think it would be more helpful to increase the cost of gas rather than an outright ban. But putting a ban out in the distance is what can push the manufacturers more. The proper mechanism would probably be an graduated increase in a carbon tax so that by 2030, gas would cost $20 a gallon.

I have most true conservative economic tendencies, I dislike big government, but I would not label myself particular in the current environment. And I support a carbon tax and the future (tommorow is fine with me) outright ban of ICE vehicles.

Problem is battery energy density isn’t actually getting better, they are just reducing packaging overhead, that is causing fires, the Galaxy S7 anyone. Energy density increased from 91-02, then it was packaging giving us 2-3% a year increase. Meanwhile Mercedes F1 have achieved over 50% thermal efficiency in ICE engines with near zero NOx emissions using Turbulent Jet Ignition, the energy density of ICE have improved a huge amount, with clean combustion. E-FUels from excess renewable energy producing hydrocarbon fuels is now an industry, with 3M and Bosch building a factory now. Reality and Facts show a different outcome than what this story is promoting

Yep, you’re not hearing the massive rollback in pollution standards on Fox News. That’s why everyone thinks Fox News is substandard.

Also, you might be a rural driver.
Go to your local city at rush hour and breath deep and then tell me how clean the air is, especially when 20 diesel pickup’s roll by. CONCENTRATION of Vehicles creates problems, that they don’t pay for.

“This is largely delusional; the ICE just keeps getting cleaner and more efficient…”

What is delusional is ignoring the reality that lowering emissions has proven so difficult that many or most of the major auto makers engaged in fraud and conspiracy to cheat emissions tests.

Sure, it’s possible to make ICEngines more efficient so that they pollute less. But doing so makes them more expensive. I encourage gasmobile makers to make their engines more efficient; making them more expensive will only accelerate the trend of gasmobiles becoming more expensive than comparable long-range EVs, which in turn will hasten the day when gasmobiles are obsolete.

Sure you are Dan, explains your regular anti-Tesla trolling here.

Lol…was thinking the same. You are a liberal now if you use cheaper fuel and drive a phev…lol.

LoL. You’re a liberal now if you live in a city and don’t want Lung Cancer.

Well that will decimate the Auto industry in Germany and America overnight. California should adopt zero emission as they live in smog punch bowl … but at the same time they should also review all fossil fuel burning that adds to bad air quality.
I don’t think Russia’s economy will collapse they are actually better off with all the sanctions saving money being self sufficient and buying hording Gold strangely enough. It might just be the US that could go broke if they aren’t careful.

BMW is moving to plugin’s pretty nicely.
Not sure they’re dead yet.
Also, cost of batteries is dropping fast.

Martin. Are you suggesting that a ban 13 years out can’t be planned for by the auto industry? One they should already be planning for? I mean I know they move slowly but come on…

It would be interesting to see if their boards would be happy with a defined timeline for this. They have a responsibility to make money. Lead times are long. So they are caught in a conflict. Force their hand – they probably welcome it. Trying to guess the timing is really hard. It is one thing government can do well – and it creates somewhat of a level playing field.

Also when FCA in 2028 still doesn’t have anything ready, no one will argue to bail them out.

There is no secret source here, the only way forward is the carbon/pollution tax. Cleaning up after polluters is not cheap and they should pay for it. The cap and trade program in Cali should be implemented in the rest of the country. It is too easy for polluters to set up camp in Az or Nv and avoid the taxes but still benefit from what Ca has to offer. Fossil energy is cheaper when someone else has to pay for clean up.