SEPTEMBER UPDATE – 5 Automakers Closest To Losing The Federal Tax Credit

OCT 5 2018 BY MARK KANE 228

This year, the first manufacturers will hit cumulative sales of 200,000 plug-in electric cars in the U.S.

***UPDATE: Via its EV Incentive page, Tesla has confirmed the selling of its 200,000th vehicle in the U.S. Tesla has updated its phaseout chart to depict this. Here’s the chart as it stands now:

This impacts Model 3 buyers more so than Model S or X. Those awaiting the base Model 3 will now have to decide whether to wait it out at potentially a reduced credit, or pony up for a higher level version of the car at the full credit, which remains in place through the end of the year.

Hitting 200,000 will trigger the phaseout period of the $7,500 federal tax credit.

**UPDATE – This post has been updated to include sales through the end the August 2018.

Currently, all of the plug-ins vehicles sold in the U.S. are eligible for full federal tax credit of up to $7,500 (depending on battery capacity – see actual credit amount for each vehicle here).

But when a particular manufacturer sells 200,000 units, like Tesla already has, the full amount will be available through the end of that quarter and for the following quarter. Then, all new plug-ins from that manufacturer will be eligible for just 50% of the per-vehicle credit amount – for only two more quarters. After that, the credit diminishes even more until it’s eventually gone for that particular manufacturer.

As we explained in the past, this is how it all works.

“Each independent automaker’s eligible plug-in vehicles receive a federal credit (up to $7,500) federal credit – until the 200,000th plug-in is registered inside the US, when a countdown for phaseout of the credit begins.

At the time of the 200,000th sales, and so as not to disrupt/confuse those buying the EVs, that full $7,500 credit continues through the end of the current quarter and to the completion of the next quarter.  After this period ends the “phase-out” begins, meaning the credit is reduced to $3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely.

During any part of the phase-out process (between sale #200,000 and the calendar expiry date), the OEM is free to BUILD AND SELL AS MANY EVS as they can/want, receiving the applicable incentive amount.”

And here’s the phaseout, as explained by the IRS:

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).

Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

Highly Related – 11,362 Est. U.S. Tesla Deliveries In June, IRS Language On 200k Unclear

There are six manufacturers most advanced in progressing towards 200,000, including 1 that has gone over.

5. BMW Group – 75,530

 

4. Toyota – 88,698

 

 

3. Ford – 110,130

 

2. Nissan – 124,513

 

1. General Motors (GM) – 193,436

 

 

Surpassed – Now In Phase-Out Period – Tesla – 244,333 (estimated, in-depth analysis/discussion from June by InsideEVs here)


Taking into consideration the numbers and pace of sales in the past months, Tesla hit 200,000 first, in the second half of this year.

General Motors should be second to the 200,000 level, but with the pace of sales slowed in the last couple of months, there still may be a couple of months left before GM enters the phase-out period.

It’s likely Nissan will be third, but with sales of the new LEAF lower than initially anticipated, this will be a long ways off still.

After that, it’s not so clear which automakers will be next.

Top 15 FAQs on the Income Tax Credit for Plug-in Vehicles


Closing

We’ll update this list on a monthly basis as new sales figures come in. You can keep track of U.S. sales here and remember to check out our Compare EVs page for information such as federal tax credit amount, pricing, range and more.

*Eric Loveday contributed to this report

Categories: BMW, Chevrolet, Ford, Lists, Nissan, Tesla

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228 Comments on "SEPTEMBER UPDATE – 5 Automakers Closest To Losing The Federal Tax Credit"

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Ron M

I don’t think there’s any possibility that Tesla will sell less than 22,000 vehicles this quarter.

TwoVolts

Unless they temporarily build inventory and focus on sales outside the US. I am fairly certain that all the automakers will be trying to ‘manage’ the timing of the phaseout.

Dan

Agree, it’s more like there is no way they will reach 200k total US sales this quarter unless they are witless. It’s US deliveries that count towark 200k, nothing to do with production.

Ziv

We are down to less than a week until we see the April numbers. All the guesses here will be a little more accurate when we see what Tesla delivered in the US in April. I have my popcorn, this should be interesting.
I am hoping that Tesla can push just enough deliveries out of the US so that they can keep the profit margin as high as possible while not delivering 200k until July 2nd.
Flip side of the coin, if they have a great April with regards to US deliveries, all bets are off.

doggydogworld

Not sure what you consider a “great April”. Bloomberg tracker estimates they’ll make about 12,000 Model 3s, but it smooths over factory shutdowns so is probably a bit high.

First 6 weeks S+X production goes overseas. If Tesla pushes that to 9 weeks and holds the last 4 weeks for delivery in early July we’ll only see the 4k “in transit” cars delivered this quarter. That leaves room to deliver 18k Model 3s. Some are going to Canada and they can stockpile the last few weeks of production (12-15k) for early July delivery.

Ziv

I am probably preaching to an empty church, but given Tesla’s slow first month of the quarter in April, just 6150 cars delivered in the US, it is very likely that they will deliver the 200k’th in early July, They have 17,000 deliveries left before they blow past the full credit phaseout crossing at 200,000. They will probably deliver around 8,000 in May and that leaves them around 9,000 that they can deliver in June and still stay under.
I can see Tesla pushing hundreds more cars to Canada and Europe and then starting in mid-June simply putting a thousand or more 3’s in the parking garages they used a couple months ago when the 3’s were missing parts.
Delay the M3 deliveries in late June by a week and start off July with a huge bang!
Tesla is going to have a Q3 that is going to blow the lid off BEV sales in the US!

Pushmi-Pullyu

Hey Ziv, thanks for pointing out my error (in another discussion thread) about the number of quarters, after the 200,000 milestone is passed, for which the entire tax credit is still eligible.

But I still expect Tesla to pass that 200,000 milestone this quarter, which means the tax credit will drop to half at the end of Q3 this year, more or less. (I think you said 90 days rather than exactly a calendar quarter.)

Ziv

It is going to be interesting to see how Tesla handles this. Do they put the pedal to the metal in May and June and hit 200k with just a couple weeks left in the quarter, thereby ending the full credit at the end of September? Or do they push deliveries outside the US as much as possible and store a thousand cars, or so, in the parking garages they used a few months ago, thereby preserving the full credit until December 31st?
I think the unexpectedly low 3 deliveries in April is a clue as to how Tesla is going to handle it. They have more than 16,000 cars to go so a growth rate of 15% for May over April and 25% for June over May would keep everyone satisfied if not happy, while still keeping them comfortably under 200k.
Then after July 1st they can ship the cars that they stored in the parking garages and shift deliveries back from Canada and Europe and have a record breaking, jaw dropping, Q3.
That opinion, and $4, will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

Gasbag

@ziv

You’ve pretty much outlined the same plan I posted in another thread but you’ve not factored in the June shutdown for the M3 D. As you may recall the M3 D was spotted in Feb and this was confirmed via VINs. Less reliably Elon said it would be available in July hence a June shutdown makes sense and that would mean they don’t have to break a sweat to forestall 200k.

Ziv

Interesting! I didn’t know about the probable shutdown. Thanks for the heads up! It will be entertaining to see how Tesla handles this. I still think it could go either way, but being able to offer the 3 to buyers knowing that they will qualify for the $7500 credit for an additional 3 months is so useful I don’t see how Tesla would walk away from it, given their many options to postpone delivering 200k’th in June.
The big factor for me is that Tesla can deliver an unlimited amount of cars for that entire time with the full credit. The extra 3 months that they could get could mean an additional 45,000 people get the credit, maybe even 60,000 if they get up to averaging 20k cars delivered a month. They have sold 178,000 cars since 2010. They could sell up to 60,000 in the final 3 months of 2018, each recieving the full credit. That number is a reach but if they could even come close it would be huge.

Jason

Don’t forget They are adding another shift to run 24/7 TM3 production in June. With the late May/early June TM3 line shutdown they can take extra time to make more than necessary production equipment upgrades/improvements that they already are doing if they are going to be too close to the 200K number. Both of these should skyrocket TM3 production and for the first time ever Elon just may make a production target… LOL I should be taking delivery of my TM3 sometime in June and would happy to wait a couple more weeks if it means other Tesla customers get 3 more months of the full tax credit.

Dan

Tesla would have to be run by idiots to deliver the 200,000th car in the US before July 1. Do you think they are idiots?

Pushmi-Pullyu

I think they need income more than they need to extend the tax credit another quarter.

We will of course have to wait to see what happens. But it seems to me that if Tesla was going to shift a significant portion of its MS/MX sales overseas, we would already see that happening.

Those who think Tesla can delay things by shifting Model 3 sales to Canada, are not looking at the numbers. The total number of Canadian reservations is far too low to have a significant impact.

xcat

Anyone running a business would find a way to extend the income. More reservationists may cancel their order if delivery timing & subsidy expectations are not met. We’re talking a couple weeks of rerouted shipments for 3 months of full EV tax credit.

BroncoBet

You took a lonely stance and defended it,I’m glad we can’t bet on this website, what a snafu by Tesla.

Vexar
Um…. what’s the harm in them focusing on profitability over a 3-month extension on the Federal government incentive program? In all the states where there is a competitive disincentive to buy a Tesla over another EV, they are still selling quite well, and they dominate the US market by an undisputed margin. Profitability means vehicles sold. They haven’t dropped a single Model III into S. Korea and the demand there is staggering. I think when you pull away and look at that half-million pre-orders, far and away, the bulk of that was outside the US. That means they will probably get through those Day1 US orders before the incentive is gone. I know locally that non-Day 1 reservation holders have already configured, which means their vehicles are being built now, and may, before the end of June, already be built. Look at it this way: let’s say that a generous 33% of the Model III orders on Day 1 were in the US. That is being generous. They have delivered around 30,000 or so, let’s say. That leaves 137,000 yet to deliver, which amounts to 27 weeks, or about six months. That’s assuming they don’t ever build faster than 5,000… Read more »
BroncoBet

They are obviously with out wit, have you been paying attention?

7one

I mostly agree. But no cars are going to Europe before ’19, as per Elon Musk a couple of days ago on Twitter.

BroncoBet

There is a non zero probability they are ,indeed ,witless.

JW

I live near Canada and have seen my first two auto-trailers loaded with Teslas going north in the last few weeks. Must be more than that so I’m sure you’re right.

Vexar

Tesla played this one incredibly smart: they knew that a conservative government was coming into Ontario, Canada, so they pushed as many Tesla vehicles into Canadian hands in June as possible, before that government credit program was whisked away. That allowed them to sandbag the US Federal tax credit to get another quarter out of the program before it sunset.

It bothers me that “conservatism” means no hand-outs for environmental programs and large hand-outs to fossil fuel programs. It should mean “no hand-outs.” I dare a single conservative candidate to cut hand-outs for energy, buyer/consumer programs, and crop/agriculture programs.

Assaf

I agree with Ron M. With all the hyper-focus on increasing Model 3 production (currently reported to be at a ~9k/month rate), and the America-first delivery policy, it will be *extremely* hard for them to avoid 22k, even if they try and divert to Canada as much as they can.
And that’s without counting Model S/X.

If they end the quarter in the 200,001-210,000 range, it will be yet another case of misplanning and ordinary-consumer (as opposed to rich people who could afford it anyway) neglect on behalf of Musk et al.

Bryan

Give me a break. Tesla is required by law to maximize profit for the investors(share holders). If the intentionally keep from selling to maximize the credit they could find themselves in big trouble with the SEC. It isn’t any big conspiracy theory. What wouldyou guys be doing if Musk’s estimate for ramp up had been on schedule? They would be over 200,000 already.

Dan

They don’t need to “not sell” them. They can sell them outside of the US. There is a long waiting list for their products outside of the US.

SJC

“required by law to maximize profit ”
Which law? Corporations are chartered in states.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Corporate officers are required to exercise financial responsibility, but at the very least, it’s a vast overstatement to characterize that as “required by law to maximize profits”.

Corporate officers for nonprofit or not-for-profit organizations obviously are not “required” to produce profits.

And I think it would be a nightmare to actually try to enforce any law that said officers of for-profit corporations were “required to maximize profits”. Wisely investing in a sound financial structure for a business is often wholly incompatible with concentrating on short-term profits.

Nix

Yes, they are fiduciaries, and are required to act as fiduciaries to look out for the best interests of the shareholders that they owe fiduciary duty. That typically means maximizing profits. But it does not force C-level execs to sacrifice long term profits for short term profits if long term profits are in the best interests of shareholders.

lamata

Everybody is your friend as Long as they can get their hands on Your Money ! ….. lmao

Windbourne

The best way to maximize profits is look long term, not short term.

Assaf

@Bryan do you mean we should give you a *tax* break? heh

Seriously, an extra quarter of full subsidies would cost Tesla almost nothing, and may allow the subsidies to cover several tens thousands additional Model 3, as a minimum.

It may make the difference between mass exodus from the waitlist, in particular of the more mainstream consumers (in terms of buying power) – and a far smaller exodus. Why would someone keep waiting for a $36-40k Model 3, when a similar range Bolt can be found at most dealerships for $22-25k after rebate? And that’s before the 220-mile Leaf shows up.

It will also buy Tesla time till the next Congress, where – for reasons going far beyond EV subsidies – one may hope smarter heads will dominate, and maybe a more rational ending formula for the subsidies will be found. Maybe even an extension.

How’s that for profits?

TwoVolts

+1

Dan

It takes the House, Senate, and He who must not be Named to change the rules, so I’m not optimistic. But it sure would be great if they could change it to an aggregate number for everyone or to a certain date for everyone. NOT FAIR to the early movers as HWMNBN would say as it is now.

BroncoBet

Tesla withholding sales to game the rebate would increase revenue to shareholders not decrease it.Tesla pays no mind whatsoever to the sec and ignores many sec letters and complaints.Tesla kinship S and X overseas and 3 to Canada,and they can fill parking lots with cars to wait for July 1st. Right now production is set for the 3 anyway and will take time to resume, they have always been very good at getting government incentives,I’m sure they won’t change.
The important thing is to be at at least 5K a week after they hit 200K to give maximum rebates to buyers.

Nix

In this case maximizing profits would mean holding deliveries for a few weeks in order to qualify maximum benefit for 3 full months of futures sales.

There is no law that mandates companies maximize profits on a quarterly basis vs. a yearly basis or even over a much longer term. Tesla has a duty to the shareholders, and the majority of TSLA shareholders are long term investors, including Institutional investors.

The SEC isn’t in the business of baby-sitting company’s decisions between long term and short term profits.

Vexar

Your point is valid, but unpopular with those who are hoping they can still get the tax credit. I started saving when the Whitestar was first announced.

CarGuy

Poorer people can’t use the full credit anyhow so half or quarter credit works fine for them. Myself included.

Brian

If they can stretch the rebate for another 3 months, more base models can get to buyers during the phase out, leasing can help a great deal if the rebate is passed on to the leasor and getting production as high as possible during the phase out will help because there are no limits on rebates after 200k.

Can you take the rebate over multiple tax years?

morrisg

No, the credit is only good for one tax year.

JP White

Where do you see that in the IRS rules? I only see that you cannot carry forward unused portions to subsequent tax years.

“The following requirements must be met to qualify for the credit.

You are the owner of the vehicle. If the vehicle is leased, only the lessor and not the lessee, is entitled to the credit.
You placed the vehicle in service during your tax year.
The vehicle is manufactured primarily for use on public streets, roads, and highways.
The original use of the vehicle began with you.
You acquired the vehicle for use or to lease to others, and not for resale.
You use the vehicle primarily in the United States.”

“Line 23
If you cannot use part of the personal portion of the credit because of the tax liability limit, the unused credit is lost. The unused personal portion of the credit cannot be carried back or forward to other tax years.”

Jason

It’s also “non-refundable” meaning if you only owe $5k in federal income tax then you only get $5k of the credit. You don’t get the extra $2,500 as a “refund.”

Nix

Median new car buyer has a household income of $70K, and would be eligible for most if not all the $7500. Much more than half credit.

Gasbag
It doesn’t look like it should be difficult for Tesla to manage this. They will likely build about 25k MS+MX in the quarter. If they simply Export their normal fist month of quarter ratio in May and June then only 4-5k of those would be domestic meaning they have 17-18k of M3 domestic deliveries available. With the shut down in April we likely have ~10k available domestic deliveries. We could expect production of 20-30k in May+Jun meaning they have to deal w 10-20k vehicles. Option one would be to export them. They have already sent out invitations to Canada so we can expect that is part of the plan. If Europe or another destination were a part of the plan they would have to send out invites to configure soon. Option 2 would be to store them. With over 300 sales and service locations available they would only need to store 30-60 vehicles per site. That is not a big ask. Option three would be to reduce production. Remember that Elon said that the dual drive M3 would be available in July. That likely means an M3 production shutdown in June. Most likely is a combination of all three. Shipping… Read more »
WadeTyhon

Agreed…

Even being pessimistic on production, let’s say the Model 3 doesn’t average 2,000 units/week over the next 3 months…

Let’s say the Model 3 averages 1,500/week over the next 3 months.

If so, that alone would be 18,000 Model 3’s produced and ready to deliver in Q2.

Canadian deliveries will not be sufficient this quarter. Especially with AWD officially not coming until sometime in Q3.

Unless Tesla announces a push up for European deliveries for this quarter, or Tesla specifically announces they’re going to slow down Model 3 production for tax purposes, I don’t see a Q3 delay being possible.

Dan

They can divert model x/s deliveries to Europe and aChina and delay some deliveries in the U.S. They only report their production and global deliveries, so reducing U.S. deliveries won’t have any financial impact.

Then they can sell as many as they want in Q3 and Q4.

WadeTyhon

Always possible but no sign of this happening (yet). In fact in Q1 European S/X sales are down more than US sales. (Although we don’t have all numbers for Europe in March yet. But it too seems to be down from 2017.)

If Model 3 production is at or near 2,000/week all this quarter, Tesla would have basically no wiggle room for S/X… every single S/X would need to be Euro or China-bound.

But seeing as how European S/X deliveries were delayed “4-6 months” in February just like US deliveries, it looks unlikely to me.

We will see, though! I would rather be wrong on this because I’m waiting on the SR Model 3. 🙂

Nix

S/X sales are down because Tesla intentionally reduced S/X production, taking S/X workers off the S/X line and putting them on the Model 3. This was temporary for the ramp-up.

Nix

They don’t have to announce anything. They have made no promise to shareholders to sell every car the instant it comes off the line. Stockpiling cars between production and sales is standard of the industry. Every car maker has a stockpile of cars somewhere. There are even photos of large lots with stockpiles of cars. Easy to google.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Those stockpiles of cars are mostly cars sitting in ports, awaiting shipment overseas. Those stockpiles of cars are also owned by large auto makers which make millions of cars per year, unlike Tesla, which last year sold just over 100,000 cars.

Auto makers have to pay tax on inventory just sitting around on lots. I doubt Tesla wants to pay tax on tens of thousands of cars just to extend the federal income tax rebate another three months. It’s gonna run out sooner or later anyway.

At any rate, we’ve got less than two months to keep arguing about it. Just who is right should become pretty obvious within a few weeks. Looks to me like WadeTyhon’s predictions have been right on the money on this subject for several months now, so I’m going to continue to assume his predictions are correct unless there are some pretty clear indications otherwise.

pjwood1

PP, For a time, Tesla specifically line-itemed a deduction of the tax-credit from its trade offers. The more credits customers get, the more comfortable they are trading cars back to Tesla at lower prices.

It is wrong to suggest the tax-credit is for owners and not Tesla, the way they treat it.

Brian

Can they shut down Model 3 production in June to add a second production line? This would give them the most production capacity during the 9 month rebate phase out.

Pushmi-Pullyu

There is no room in the Fremont assembly plant for a 2nd Model 3 production line. As Elon said on the recent earnings call, the Fremont plant is “stuffed to the gills”.

What you suggest would be a great strategy if it were possible, but it’s not.

jorey

They will simply deviate supply to the EU or Candada

Mikael

Better to deviate supply to Norway instead of EU.

D

You would have to be dumb to get a Tesla. Hit a fire truck, killed a human being, bankruptcy and caught on fire with a man trapped inside. Why would anyone buy these cars. People they don’t know how to make them. Please don’t buy them and put us all in danger, you or our children. Please buy smart!

Jayydeeee

So an ICE car never did any of those things? Also there was never a Tesla that caught on fire with a person inside but that has happened with ICE cars

Jason

ROFLMAO!!! You must be a short…

leafowner

I can’t see Tesla sitting on this — frankly with GM and Tesla getting phased out first — I can’t see how politicians who think “America first” will allow $$ to go to foreign brands and not the two leaders in EVs. The law is going to get modified…..and I think both Tesla and GM know this.

Tesla will be going balls out this quarter….

JP White

Basing business decisions on the promises of politicians may not be the wisest decision.

Nix

Tesla can choose what country and when they sell the cars they build in June.

JP White

Up to a point. Let’s hope they had enough overseas and Canadian sales to hold back US deliveries.

Xcat

Absolutely. 5000 in the US, remainder in Canada.

Jason

While it would be great to get a rebate, too bad for you if that is the reason you reserved the Model 3.
The biggest interesting thing will be if the rebate continues into future years and BMW, MB, VW, etc. get advantage of it. That puts GM and Tesla at a distinct disadvantage just when the EV shift is starting to happen.
Of course, the Trump government talks tough on US manufacturing, but if this happens then US manufacturers (except Ford) will be hit hardest.

Joshua Burstyn

Agreed. A sensical government would either raise the limits before phaseout, or remove EV rebates while removing oil and gas subsidies, leveling the playing field for all powertrains.

PHEVfan

“sensical” – that explains why we won’t be seeing either of your proposals come to fruition.

Prsnep

Any advantage other manufacturers will have over Tesla will also be temporary. If they sell a lot of vehicles in that time, their advantage period shrinks. If they don’t, then then they’re pretry much irrelevant. It’s a problem that fixes itself.

Mikael

Not limit deliveries. Diverting deliveries from the US to other countries.

WadeTyhon
Here’s the problem… does any Model 3 reservation holder in Europe have a delivery estimate earlier than “late 2018” so far? In the entirety of Canada there are 6 service centers. In Mexico there is 1 service center. In the US there are about 80! That’s 8% the number of CN delivery locations to US. If Tesla averages 2,000/week production in the US this quarter, they will produce 24,000 Model 3’s. If Tesla allocated 8% of this production to Canada/Mexico, that would be 1,920 cars in Q2. How many cars could be delivered per day at these service centers? 10-15? It’s at least a 1 hour process bare minimum per car. Max sales (absolute max, best case scenario) might be 5,000 delivered in Q2 in Canada. But I think that is very unlikely considering the S and X currently sell ~3,500 a year *combined* in Canada. That’s also assuming Canadians don’t defer to wait for the AWD version coming in Q3. Intentionally limiting production would be a bad idea. So the only way for them to hit in Q3 is if they announce a push up of European deliveries to July or August. As far as I have seen this… Read more »
Mikael

They could basically just ship those to Norway. Those waiting there would happy pick them up at the harbor if needed with owner papers just being mailed without much notice. 😉
It would take some extra workers and lots of overtime anyway, but I’m sure it won’t be hard to find volunteers among the Model 3 reservation holders. 😉

I am not saying that it will be easy. But not hard enough to not do it.

So the $7500 is not claimed buy consumer until tax is filed in 2019, how will IRS know who is elegible if 200K limit is reached in less say 3Q 2018

TwoVolts

They will ask you to provide the make/model bought and the date of the sale – same as they currently require. They will use this info to determine the credit amount.

If I know the IRS, the straightforward credit calculation will probably involve a 25-page worksheet.

TwoVolts
Vexar

By VIN number is my guess. A little more detail, please InsideEVs! Maybe this is why they aren’t ordering VINs in larger batches? I would count in the fraction of the 2500 Roadsters built in on that tax credit. I am sure the IRS is doing just that!

Elon is quoted as saying “probably July” for Q2 production rate of 5k Model III’s per week. If you build a straight ramp from now until then, which is not Tesla-realistic, then that averages to 3500 a week over the quarter. Let’s not forget that second factory is coming online this quarter in Europe. Not counting the assembly factory in the Netherlands, of course. So, all-told, Tesla should be clearing this 200k figure for the US before any other manufacturer, and before Independence Day for sure. Will they sandbag to maximize the federal program? What has Elon said about the program in the past? It’s artificial. The market has to want EVs. The way I see it, the market does want them. The US somewhat less so.

BroncoBet

There is no second factory in Eu not counting Netherlands.

Jason

The tax credit goes by the date the vehicle is put in service. ie. when you take delivery. The IRS will use the date on your paperwork for eligibility. That makes it simple since it goes by calendar quarters. Sure someone could lie to get the credit but they will wish they hadn’t if they ever get audited…

JP White

The manufacturer tells the IRS when 200,000th delivery happens. Then starts the phase out period. The rebate is therefore date limited during the phase out period and easy to determine by delivery date only.

Tom

Finally!@!!!

fasterthanonecanimagine

Somebody wrote in a comment (different article) that not all Teslas sold in the U.S. were used for the tax credit i.e. those sold to leasing companies (or was it car rental companies?). If this is correct, Tesla is possibly further away from the 200’000 threshold than assumed.

Ziv

The $7500 tax credit is basically free money, if the buyer doesn’t demand it, the leasing bank does. And the the number is for deliveries of “qualifying vehicles” so even if you altruistically don’t claim the credit, the vehicle still counts towards the 200,000 vehicle limit.

fasterthanonecanimagine

Couldn’t Tesla just buy a small start-up car maker (or buy the option to purchase it later), and license Model 3 to them? This company could sell another 200’000 Teslas (maybe under their own brand). Would this possibly work or would it be illegal? I mean if tesla delivered parts (e.g. powertrain, battery etc.) to Volvo, Volvo could sell 200’000 cars in the U.S. under the current tax credit scheme. The ‘Volvo’ cars could still be assembled in the Gigafactory.

Pushmi-Pullyu

The IRS takes a very dim view of tax dodges like the one you suggest.

Clive

And I bet you wear tigh·ty-whi·ties

Pushmi-Pullyu

Llamas don’t wear clothes. Our fur coat is plenty warm. 😉

Tom

Question: Is Hyundai considered the same manufacturer as Kia? How close does a ‘joint venture’ type situation need to be before the IRS considers them just brands of the same company? Nissan/Mitsubishi? From the wiki:
“As of December 2015, the Kia Motor Corporation is minority owned by Hyundai, which owns a 33.88% stake valued at just over $6 billion USD. Kia in turn is a minority owner of more than twenty Hyundai subsidiaries ranging from 4.9% up to 45.37% totaling more than $8.3 billion USD.”

PHEVfan

At worst it would have to be >50% ownership to be considered part of the same company, and even then it may not apply. It depends on the exact wording in the program to tell if a wholly owned subsidiary counts towards the total. I don’t know that wording, maybe someone else does.

Murrysville EV

Guess I’ll continue holding out for the Kia Niro EV.

Tom

So forecast then (pulled straight out of my nether regions) the mark of 200,000 is hit:
2018: Tesla, GM
2019: Possibly none. I presumed avg 4000 per month for Nissan Leaf and no other models introduced.
2020: Nissan, Toyota, BMW.
2021: Ford
2022: VW, Kia/Hyundai (assuming Kia/Hyundai counted together)

I leaf 2019 blank partly to point out the big gap here to the next ‘finisher’ after Tesla and GM.

I believe Kia/Hyundai will be left with the pricing power here and will dominate the economy end of the market in the US by 2022.

Tesla will NEVER produce a Model 3 for 35,000.

Discuss.

EVShopper

Apparently according to the IRS Hyundai and Kia are counted separate. As well as all the VAG companies (VW, Porsche, Audi, etc)

http://evadoption.com/ev-sales/federal-ev-tax-credit-phase-out-tracker-by-automaker/

EVShopper

From the IRS Qualified EV list 30D Index of Manufactures:
Index to Manufacturers
American Honda Motor Co., Inc.
AMP Electric Vehicles, Inc.
Audi of America, LLC
Azure Dynamics
BMW of North America
Boulder Electric Vehicles, Inc.
BYD Motors Inc
CODA Automotive
Electric Vehicles International
Electric Mobile Cars
FCA (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles) North America Holdings LLC
Fisker Automotive, Inc.
Ford Motor Company
General Motors Corporation
Hyundai
Karma
Kia Motors America, Inc.
Mercedes-Benz USA, LLC
Mitsubishi Motors North America, Inc.
Nissan North America
Porsche Cars North America, Inc.
Smart USA Distributor LLC — (see Mercedes Benz)
Tesla
Think
Toyota Motor Sales
VIA Motors, Inc.
Volkswagen Group of America
Volvo Cars of North America LLC
Wheego Electric Cars, Inc.
Zenith Motors, Inc.

Tom

CODA…now there’s a name not heard in awhile. But yes Kia and Hyundai are apparently different. As are VW and Audi.

That would imply Kia and Hyundai getting set up to dominate the economy end of this market because they will have a $7500 advantage for a virtual eternity in technology time.

Lou Grinzo
The best news for the EV market is that GM is high on the list. If the Feds let GM’s incentives start winding down while other companies are getting the full $7,500, that will get ugly. Also, I’ve been convinced for a while that the bizarre way this incentive was structured helps account for the foot dragging among car makers. My making it X cars per manufacturer to get money, the Feds created an incentive for companies to delay until the early EV proponents (Tesla, GM, Nissan) no longer got assistance. If the Feds did the most obvious and simplistic thing — re-upped the incentives for another Y cars per manufacturer (NOT how I would do it, to be clear), or better yet, simply renewed the incentives for Z years with no company quotas, then I would expect companies like Toyota and Honda to accelerate their visible EV efforts. They’d see that the combination of lower battery prices and the continued incentives could help their competition make money by selling EVs and hurt them by not competing. (By “visible efforts” above I’m saying that I suspect they’re doing a lot more behind the scenes than we know. Does anyone think,… Read more »
Vexar

You gotta be kidding me. How much does this country have to bail out General Motors? No, no more special treatment for the union-first Motown sacred cow. Let the market decide who wins. If it is Kia, Nissan, or Hyundai who comes in and steals market share from Generic Motors, well, it’s not like this hasn’t happened before. Remember the Carter years and the oil crisis? Motown whined that they couldn’t make more fuel efficient vehicles, that it wasn’t what customers wanted.

And then they did make what the market wanted, and they made them.

GM should have failed a long, long time ago and been replaced. If they can’t hack it in the EV market, I don’t owe them anything, as a buyer or as a taxpayer.

Clive

I agree no more special treatment.

TwoVolts

Yes. We should punish domestic automakers because GM was poorly managed in the 1970’s (the Carter years). Brilliant!

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

So the most recent BK they went through doesn’t count? The Tax payers bailing GM out doesn’t count?
Got DAMN idiot.

ModernMarvelFan

It is about EV fairness, not about bailing out GM. GM took a leap of faith in EVs more so than the rest of the packs and it is getting “punished” for doing it first while the rest can just wait and enjoy the cost reduction of the battery naturally…

Even if you do think we the taxpayer bailed out GM, then shouldn’t we at least make sure our money isn’t lost to foreign competitors who build their EVs overseas? Toyota Prime? anyone?

TwoVolts

Vexar,
Characterizing a restructuring of the tax credit to not punish the early adopters as ‘special treatment’ for GM is silly.

I can see a scenario in the next year in which the US economy has a significant recession – possibly beginning this fall. Tesla will be out of tax credits in 2019. Is there a potential for Tesla to be in trouble as early as 2019 in such a scenario? Maybe.

If that scenario plays out and Tesla suddenly finds itself on the brink, you can expect to read the following from Tesla detractors and Koch brother trolls alike:
“Tesla should have failed a long, long time ago and been replaced. If they can’t hack it in the EV market, I don’t owe them anything, as a buyer or as a taxpayer.”

Jason

Uhh General Motors Corporation ceased operations and went out of business in 2009. It has been replaced by a new company named General Motors Company that was formed in 2009 and Bought the assets of General Motors Corporation. So the GM we know today is a company that isn’t even a decade old. I guess that makes Tesla the second oldest US auto manufacturer…

goodbyegascar

That would make Caitlyn Jenner about four years old.

leafowner

My bet is they kill the credit once GM and Tesla have hit the limit…..

Lawrence

I say don’t announce it until Q4 of 2019, when other manufacturers are too vested in their EV programs to cut their losses.

dinotrac

GM went over 197,000 in September and is nearly certain to pass 200,000 this month. I imagine they will try to flog the crap out of Volts and Bolts through the end of March but, let’s be honest here, GM’s never tried to sell a whole lot of those cars.

EVShopper

Mary Barra should make the case that if VAG group is counted as separate manufacturers, then the separate GM brands should each get 200,000 EVs toward the credit. So Chevy, Buick, Cadillac, and GMC.

Clive

Like Nissan & Mitsubishi now. LeafTech, different name.

When Nissan runs out, I am shifting over to Mitsubishi.

LOL

TwoVolts

Not likely to succeed – but you bring up an interesting point.

Clive

They are apart if the same alliance now, so its a given!

Ron M

Tesla will exceed 200,000 total US EV sales this quarter and will have two more quarters of a full credit. This means that December when sales for EV’s are typically the highest Tesla will sell a record amount and then January when sales are slower the smaller credit will begin.
Tesla has no reason to want to slow sales down, not even for a tax credit.

Dan

If they exceed 200K in Q2, then 7500 credit is only available in Q3, and not in Q4

Alonso Perez

Yep. Tesla will sell their US car 199,999 by end of Q2. They will ship to foreign countries, or store, any production excess.

Anything else would be idiocy. I just hope nobody at Tesla makes a mistake in accounting for cars sold in the US.

Vexar

Don’t bank on this, Alonso. Their investors are more interested in larger sales numbers than the consumers are about tax breaks. Sometimes, you have to take from one to give to the other.

Richard Giddens

Please urge your Congressional Representitives to support an immediate extension of the tax rebate—-lower priced cleaner energy for transport puts money back into American’s purses and wallets, so it’s good win win win for all.

Windbourne

How about killing the credit for all?

Murrysville EV

After 8 years of subsidies, it’s time for EV mfrs to begin standing on their own.

Also, removal of the subsidy would help quiet the Tesla/EV haters.

BroncoBet

No,everyone crows about how ICE is finished and EV’s are exploding, if that is the case the rebates did their job and no extension and waste of money is needed.

Anderlan

I like this idea.

However, if we got rid of this or other clean energy/energy efficiency subsidies, what do you suppose should replace it/them? Something more generic (no winners or losers–only fossil fuels are losers, more carbonaceous, more loser), right?

I think our goal in law should be: simple, universal, generic code, only as specific as we absolutely need (and science says fossil fuel is absolutely specifically a relatively huge problem). Equality under law.

dan

You want a universal, generic code…with complex preferences based on carbon usage. Equality under law, progressive style?

Ocean Railroader

I think it doing a slow phase out is good.

The reasoning is I really can’t see giving someone a $7,500 tax credit on a $100,000 dollar car while I’m struggling to put my hands on the bar above the poverty line. Also the people who would most likely get a $100,000 got some massive tax breaks this year.

I also think that nuclear power and coal shouldn’t get bailouts for not competing with solar.

Rightofthepeople

You can’t get any tax breaks if you don’t pay any taxes. Anyone who can afford a $100k car (or in the case of the Model 3, a $50k to $60k car) likely earns enough income that they pay a boatload of income taxes. Those who pay the taxes deserve and should get the tax breaks.

Roy_H

I think the number for Tesla is wrong. Must add 1900 for Tesla Roadster 1.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Sales of the original Roadster don’t count, since most or all of them were sold before the count started. GM doesn’t have to count the EV1s it sold, either.

Jason

No EV1s were ever sold. All were leased and then destroyed at the end of the lease…

Pushmi-Pullyu

Good point, thanks.

Lawrence

Even leased vehicles without a purchase option would have still counted. Lots of Lease EV’s out there.

Adam H.

Tesla will not sell more than 199,999 before July 1. Based on the way the law is written, I believe the credit continues for “two quarters after” the 200,000 threshold is met. Taxpayers should receive the full credit all the way through Q1 of 2019 in this case, giving Tesla essentially three quarters of sales at max production rates.

ziv

No. If Tesla only sells 199,800 by the end of Q2, they will definitely sell 200k early in Q3 which means they will get the full credit until the end of Q4, so on January 1st 2019, the credit gets cut in half and people buying in Q1 and Q2 of 2019 will get a $3750 credit.

” The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States…”

Adam H.

You’re right, I wrote this on the tail end of an overnight shift, meant to say through Q4 2018.

Ziv

No worries. I imagine I am not the only one that wishes we had an edit feature. 😉

TwoVolts

Adam,
Perhaps you should read the article – including the example provided.

Adam H.

I read the article and have read on this extensively. The law says “beginning with the SECOND calendar quarter AFTER the calendar quarter in which the in which at least 200,000…[emphasis added]”

The law and the IRA interpretation is not ambiguous. The law could say “the calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least…” or “the second calendar quarter after the first calendar quarter in which at least…” Instead the law says “the second quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least.”

Q3 2018 – Tesla reaches sales limit
Q4 2018 – First calendar Q after limit reached
Q1 2019 – Second calendar Q after limit reached, one year phaseout begins

IANAL, but I don’t read this any other way.

TwoVolts

Yes. THIS makes sense. Phaseout would start in January in this example. Agreed.

Jason

What does the Irish Republican Army have to do with this?

Ron M

We’ve subsides fossil fuels for over 100 years and still do. Rick Perry just lost trying to get more subsides for Coal and Nuclear because they couldn’t compete with renewable. Yawn 😫

PHEVfan

The way this administration leans, it would be more likely to cancel the incentive altogether and hope Tesla dies and hope other makers drop EVs like a hot potato. Pruitt would be grinning from ear to ear, along with Perry. If they don’t accomplish that by Nov, then we’re likely safe.

BoltUp

I just think its awesome that GM have sold that many plug in vehicles. With all the shade that’s thrown their way, its awesome to see they are actually leading in sales!
And yes, I’m a little bias having purchased a Bolt last month, though never thought I’d buy an American car!

Jason

Unfortunately 99% of them are all PHVs… Congress screwed up. The credit should have been for BEVs only.

ModernMarvelFan

Well, I guess it is easy to spew fake news. 99% is certainly something that you have pulled out of your arse…

It is at least more than 15% of the GM sales are BEVs. It is more likely to be around 20% with inclusion of Spark EV and this year’s Bolt sales.

EVShopper

Why? A good PHEV like the Volt mean most owners can do more than 90% of their trip miles in electric mode. That’s a lot of gas saved.

Just_Chris

That graph certainly shows why Tesla is getting so much negative press. It seems that now the production ramp-up has gotten underway no one can do anything but throw rocks. BMW are sprinting to keep up and the rest are where? Tesla has got to be denting the sales of $50k+ cars by now, by no means dominating but I can’t imagine that the car makers normally in that space are seeing a lot of growth in the sales of models that compete with Tesla.

My gut feel is that Tesla has nothing to loose by smashing through that 200k mark, tax breaks for forgien made cars when the US poster boy gets nothing is not going to result in US consumers rushing back to their Diesel Audi’s. Tesla has at least 12 months of back orders on the model 3. 12 months worth of sarcastic tweets will do a hell of a lot of damage to brands still taking the tax dollar after Tesla starts to get less, not to mention what will happen when GM hits the 200k mark and we start getting close to elections in the rust belt.

SJC

I told Model 3 fans this last year, they said no big deal.

Bill Howland

WOW!!!! I had no idea Tesla and GM were neck and neck as far to the number of electric cars sold. Almost all the Cadillacs were the ELR, and not too many of that Joke-Of-A-Car, the CT6 PHEV. Since DeNysschen has been fired (ABOUT TIME!) they should bring the ELR BACK. In only one year’s manufacturing time it sold much better than the multi-year Tesla Roadster, and about 10 TIMES better than the multi-year CT6 PHEV. Even though made in China, even the Chinese are basically staying away from that Joke.

jim stack

once they hit 200K they get 2 more quarters (6 months) of full credits, then 6 more months of half credit. Who knows maybe the credits will get extended or changed. We will see what happens.

SJC

I told everyone Tesla would be losing credits and the list for the Model 3 would shorten, no one listened.

SJC

Even though I reminded people of this last year, it may not be a big problem.

ModernMarvelFan

The rules should have been once a single automaker hits 200K, then the credits starts to reduce for EVERYONE. That way, Tesla alone will start to push other automakers into putting EVs on the market quick.

Maybe the laws should be changed to 300K. Then once it hits 300K, the credits starts to go down on everyone. That will make Hyundai/Kia, Toyota, VW, Honda and Ford more serious at launching their EVs quicker!

leafowner

I agree! race to the top — not the bottom!!

Kdawg

I was thinking the same thing. Why punish Tesla, GM, and Nissan for doing the heavy lifting. Just set all EV’s on the same phaseout schedule as Tesla now.

Roy_H

Why exclude Tesla Roadster for Tesla’s count? Should add about 1900.

Ziv

Any car delivered before Jan 1, 2010 doesn’t count, nor do the cars sent overseas. So add 800-900 Tesla roadsters to the 200k count.

JP White

They were sold prior to the credit being introduced.

Roy_H

I agree that’s Tesla will manage their sales to avoid going over the limit this quarter. Mainly they have to ship all their S and X models overseas and delay the usual S and X large amount for USA at end of quarter until after July 1st.

hpver

The law needs to be changed. Punishing those who took a risk early on and stuck with producing EVs is really not fair. However, I think there is zero chance of that happening with the cruelly inhumane GOP in charge. What a mess.

I’m probably going to buy a second Bolt, or a Hyundai Kona EV, when the lease on my Spark EV runs out next year. It’s a shame that my choice might have to be driven by an arbitrary and punitive end to the tax credit.

EVShopper

Is there a comprehensive list of which mfg/brand count as “independent manufacturers”?

For example, it seem unbalanced that each mfg in the VW group (Porsche, VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley/Lamborghini,) would each get 200k, but GM doesn’t get 200k each for GMC, Chevy, Buick, and Cadillac).

arne-nl

One distinction that I’m wondering about. We’re talking about the number of deliveries. Is that what counts? Of for how many cars the tax credit was actually claimed? There could be cars delivered in the US for which the buyer was not eligible for a tax credit. Do these vehicles count?

Jason

Every eligible vehicle sold in the US counts toward the 200K trigger, whether or not the purchaser claimed the credit is irrelevant.

EVShopper

It’s registered electric vehicles that count.

Alexander

Are there any deliveries to US customers that are not eligible for tax credit? I am thinking of municipalities, churches etc. Would such deliveries count against the 200,000 limit?

Pushmi-Pullyu

As I understand it, all street-legal EV passenger vehicles sold as new in the USA count toward the 200,000 limit, regardless of whether the buyer is eligible for the tax credit or not.

Nix

This is correct. Technically under IRC 30D even if nobody who bought a car maker’s EV were eligible for any tax credit, the minute they sold 200,000 cars in the US, the sunset would begin.

Oswald

Good to see Tesla finally catch up to a well established electric vehicle manufacturer like GM.

menorman

One more month for Tesla to game the system.

Donn

Have the totals been updated thru May 31st or are they still as of April?

No update to this post yet. It will be updated and republished after we get Ford, BMW data, etc.

Title will be changed to say May 2018

TL

Based on your updated data for May for US deliveries … All Tesla models S, X & 3 = 9,220
Based on the Total US deliveries reported through April 184,801 + May 9,220 = 194,021
Tesla must deliver less than 6,000 (5,979) vehicles in June to stay under the 200,000 federal limit
It’s going to be very close … Tesla delivered 6,200 Model S & X vehicles in the last month (March) of the previous quarter.
1.Tesla – 184,801 (estimated, including Tesla Roadster)

jim stack

I still want to see the COMPLIANCE automakers get their incentives taken away. They are the ones gaming the system and should get penalized for it. Then give those incentive counts to Tesla since they are really selling all they can and making a real difference.

john1701a

We watched GM do that with Volt, a vehicle clearly not targeted at its own loyal buyers. GM’s heavy focus on the SUV market made it quite obvious a small hatchback delivered at niche volume without any real promotion (excluded from nearly all their product-line commercials) was not going anywhere.

And sure enough, sales have fumbled 7.5 years… resulting only in conquest. The status quo of their own showroom shoppers didn’t change.

That certainly sounds like gaming the system for compliance.

EVShopper

Something like 80% of Bolt EV buyers are first time Chevy buyers.

EVShopper

Take away incentives and watch EV sales plummet. I don’t think any of us want that.

Spoonman.

Graph’s Tesla number is 193,021 but the paragraph’s Tesla number is 194,021.

I added the estimated qualifying US Roadster sales, but the graph hasn’t been updated yet. Will get a new graph in there soon. In the meantime, I noted it in the article. Thank you for the catch!

Stretch

I like the slope of the Tesla line on the graph.

Ziv
Too true. Tesla sales have really accelerated this past year. I think the 3 rollout went slower than they had hoped and that Tesla management thought they would be breaking 200k total US deliveries sooner than this month. Now that they have planned on hitting 200k this quarter or earlier for so long, they don’t have the institutional agility to react to the slower sales and defer hitting 200k by a relatively short time. They really ought to continue to ship more 3’s to Canada and then to store a couple thousand more for 10 or 12 days more than usual. If they do this, (and this storage idea is similar to what they did a couple quarters ago when they were short of parts), they could add 3 full months of full credit for their buyers. Given that the quarter added would be Q4 of this year, the delivery rate for Teslas in the US could be 5,000 cars a week or 60,000+ additional full credits. Or considerably more. The profits would only be deferred for a couple weeks and would set up a July that would break all the records for electric car deliveries in the US. They… Read more »
Brian

If Tesla has many used cars on hand they could provide big discounts and soak up some demand this month.

Lawrence

You don’t run a business, do you?

cr08

I’m actually quite surprised at Ford’s placement in these numbers. Given they seem to have been all in on doing bare minimum Compliance Cars up to this point. At the very least I expected to see Nissan surpass them. I’d love to see a breakdown of those numbers.

Ziv

Ford has sold 107k and Nissan has sold 120k, so Nissan has surpassed them by a bit. The Leaf has had a considerably bigger impact vs. the Ford plug ins than these numbers would indicate.

cr08

Odd. Could have swore when I read it earlier those numbers were switched. May have been my eyes playing tricks on me. Now it seems a little more in line with my expectations.

F150 Brian

Given Tesla’s regional distribution model, June ends up being one of the higher US volume months.
So the 6000 vehicle gap should be largely closed by S and X.
Therefore, model 3’s sales would have to be less than one week’s production to stay under the 200K milestone.

Zach

No just the sales in the US. Tesla has sent thousands of Model 3s to Canada. This is obviously to hit the 200k mark for US sales in July.

Drew

Are the numbers above US registrations/sales? (which trigger at 200k) Or Total sales worldwide.

Brian

US sales only.

Benz

Tariffs in China have been decreased from 25% to 15%, and the prices of the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X in China have been adjusted accordingly.

Therefore it might very well be possible that the demand for the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X in China will have increased as well.

This could mean that Tesla might give a higher priority to these Chinese orders and ship them in June to China.

As a result this could mean that fewer Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X cars will be delivered to US customers in June.

Is this a likely theory or not?

Production of June

Ron M

The lower tariffs don’t go into effect until 7/1/18

Benz

Ship the cars in June, and deliver them in July.

It takes time to ship the cars to China.

Do I really need to explain that?

Anti-Lord Kelvin

You are right, but Tesla already decreased the price of the cars accordingly to these new tariffs in April or in the beginning of May, if I remember well.

Benz

Well, since that time Tesla just might have received a few thousand orders for the Model S and the Model X?

Which they just might produce and ship in June?

Ron M

5,791 Tesla’s left to be sold in the US before reaching 200,000. It’s only possible if Tesla buyers are willing to help Tesla not crossing the 200,000 mark by delaying the delivery of there car until after 6/20/18. Tesla buyers want Tesla to succeed so there’s a tiny chance that this could happen. Send all TMS and TMX overseas TM3 to Canada and the rest stored at Tesla service Centers around the USA.

Tim

Buyers (predominately) don’t decide when a car gets delivered. Telsa says “your car is available for delivery any time after July 1st”. Done.

All this debate about whether Tesla is going to exceed 200k US deliveries in June is nonsense. Of course they aren’t, because every rational decision-maker would never let that happen. Put them on ships and trains to send them to other places. In transit vehicles are not delivered.

Meanwhile, stack up the manufactured ones in the parking lots or put them on transport trucks if they are US-bound deliveries.

To debate this is so silly. A delay of crossing over the 200k deliverable number is clearly what Tesla is doing.

Don Zenga

All that Tesla has to do is rent unused rail yard or few miles of railway track, lay a tarp and keep all the newly produced Model-3 over there and just sell Model-S/X up to a total of 5,000 units so that 200,000 units are delayed to July.

Then in July, start selling all those Model-3.

Benz

Tesla sales in the US in June will have to be about 5,750 (S+X+3).

Anti-Lord Kelvin

And they are also sending Model 3 to Tesla Stores and Show Room to be able to people to see and test drive the cars, diverting part of the production to that, which could be consistent with Tesla trying to not pass the 200.000 sales cap this month.

MathAndStuff

That seems perfectly doable. May was ~10K US deliveries. They can shift some to Canada and just sit the rest in a lot for a couple weeks. Unless Tesla is braindead there are a lot of Model 3 orders with an estimated delivery date in the first week of July instead of the last week in June.

Benz

Tesla delivered about 300 copies of the Tesla Model 3 in Canada in May 2018.

And many more are expected to be delivered in Canada in June 2018.

SJC

I said Tesla would hit it this year, the Model 3 fans said “so?”.

Benz

“June 2018 EV sales will be reported on Tuesday, July 3, 2018, ”

Why not on Monday, July 2, 2018,?

Reporting for automakers starts on July 3, with GM reporting quarterly sales. It’s based on the economic calendar. Some won’t report on the 4th due to the U.S. holiday. More info will come in on the 5th, and Tesla may not divulge until the 6th.

Benz

“It’s based on the economic calendar.”

So, it’s not always the first working day of the next month?

No. And, it rarely falls on a Monday. As you can see from the future dates, it’s not on the 1st and always the second or third day and midweek as well.

“Transition to Quarterly Sales Reporting

GM announced today it will begin reporting its U.S. vehicle sales on a quarterly basis, effective immediately. For 2018, second quarter sales will be released on July 3, third quarter sales on October 2 and fourth quarter sales on January 3, 2019.”

http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2018/apr/0403-gmsales.html

Benz

No updated chart (including June numbers)?

We have the June numbers for all the automakers that are included in this story. We were waiting on BMW’s final numbers to publish this. As far as the other automakers go, we are still waiting on numbers and splits.

Ziv

So based on the fact that they will be selling cars that will get the full credit through December 31st, they “delivered” #200,000 early in July, not in June. Not sure how they did this, and I hope there are no tax hiccups for any buyers, but if so this is a huge win for Tesla and for Tesla buyers getting their cars in October, November and December. A full $7500 credit for an extra 3 months worth of car buyers is good for the industry!
This is what I had hoped for, but I was beginning to really doubt that Tesla could pull it off.
They can theoretically/legally sell an unlimited amount cars in the US before the end of the year and every one of them would get the full credit, no limit on sales numbers if they are delivered by December 31st.
Here is hoping the 3 production rate continues to build!
Thanks for the update, Mark & Steven!

Kdawg

Delivered and you get its “birth certificate” from Tesla to get the title at your DMV. It took about 2 weeks after delivery for me to get this info.

jim stack

The law might change too. Legislation has been proposed to change it.

I think we should assign a penalty to the companies that only make the lowest number to COMPLY. They should not get any incentives since they are not doing anything except the minimum.

bro1999

Legislation introduced by a Democrat and co-signed only by other Democrats. And the GOP controls the House, Senate, and White House.
i.e. it’s DOA.

Nix

Yes, the party that currently controls the House, Senate, and White House last tried to kill the incentive entirely half a year ago. Unless the party in control of the House and Senate changes in the election this fall, the only chance of anything passing is for registered Republicans to contact their Republican representatives they voted for, and demand they support this bill or lose their support in the next primary.

Many seats have been gerrymandered to be very safe for incumbents, so politicians could care less what members of the opposing party say. All they care about is being primaried by voters in their own party.

So all you folks out there who have used the fact that Bush signed this incentive into effect as a fig leaf to pretend R’s support green car incentives, now is your time to shine. It is all on your shoulders now. Time to get politically active.

Kdawg

What perplexes me is that it’s essentially less taxes for citizens, which I always thought republicans were about. So just because it has a “green” association, this tax-cut is no longer valid?

Nix

Consistency is not Consistent with Politics. *grin*

Nathanael

Republicans love to raise taxes on citizens. You may be confused because Republicans like to cut taxes for *billionaires*. But for ordinary people Republicans normally raise taxes, over and over again. Sales tax, property tax, fees to get into national parks, you name it.

Roy_H

So Tesla did not trigger it before the end of Q2!
Those of us who were confident that Tesla would plan this carefully for the benefit of their customers have been vindicated. Now let’s see if Tesla can get the basic $35k M3 out before the end of the year so at least early reservationist can take full advantage of the tax credit.

Ziv

I had hoped they would do this, but I really didn’t think they could pull it off after the June numbers were released. I still don’t understand how they worked it out, but I am happy that they did. Can you imagine how many 3’s are going to be delivered in Q4, and nearly every one of those buyers in the US will get the full credit if they pay enough taxes to qualify. And if you can afford a 3, you are paying more taxes than that. This is going to be a blast watching Tesla build more and more 3’s every month!

Nix

Good news: The incentive lives until the end of the year!
Bad news: Tesla has been raking in reservations that have been converted to paid orders. The runway has gotten much shorter for finalizing a reservation into an order and still get your car by the end of the year.

Roy_H

Nix, I don’t see how building cars is bad news.

Nix

LOL! no, the building of the cars itself isn’t bad news. It is that the high growth of paid orders recently that means that there is less time to decide now, and get an order in soon enough to get it by the end of Dec.

My post was a wake-up call to anyone sitting on the fence and trying to decide whether now it the time to order or not. The extra 3 months until the incentive is cut in half doesn’t give everyone 3 more months to decide.