Huge Demand For Standard Tesla Model 3 Means You’ll Have To Wait

MAR 11 2019 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 115

Demand for Tesla Model 3 grows again in the U.S. and delivery times increase.

Checking out Tesla’s website recently revealed that Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the U.S. rose quickly from an estimated two-to-four week timeline to six-to-eight weeks. Please plan ahead, because we expect Tesla to increase this even further. As Tesla finally launched its $35,000 Standard Model 3 in the U.S., it escalated demand instantly. However, the automaker really had no way of knowing for sure the level of impact.

Now, after a bit of time has passed, it’s clear that Tesla can’t possibly produce as many cars as it needs to. Keep in mind that this is on top of manufacturing different variants of the car exclusively for Euro and Chinese markets. Unless Tesla reduces its output of Model 3 builds heading to global markets, there’s no way it can satisfy U.S. demand. Clearly, the new base Model 3 offering complicated this situation.

Base Tesla Model 3 ($35,000) deliveries see a delay by some four weeks, it still appears at the time of this writing that the Model 3 Standard Plus ($37,000) stays at the two-to-four week delivery estimate. However, it’s becoming abundantly clear that Tesla may and will change anything on a dime.

Recent Developments

The company openly shared its “good” announcements last week. Surprisingly, it included us in a private call and got informational emails out quickly. Last night, weirdly on a Sunday at 2 AM, it published this “news” quietly with no previous heads up and no email announcement. We at InsideEVs honestly think that Tesla needs to stop this impulsive and unpredictable behavior if it wants mainstream media and the masses to take it seriously.

If you still had hopes of reaching higher into the Model 3 product range, (Mid Range, Long Range, and AWD cars) Tesla could deliver those cars in just two weeks.

With the latest announcement of a 3 percent price hike for these upper level variants, if you want one, you should get your order completed ASAP. It’s clear interest is high for the Standard Model 3. However, at least in the U.S., interest in higher trim levels has diminished, at least to some degree.

Do you still have a Tesla Model 3 reservation? Are you planning on buying one soon? We hope Tesla won’t raise prices on the Standard Model 3 anytime soon, or worse, eliminate it. If you have a pre-order in for the cheaper models, we’d suggest you move forward.

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115 Comments on "Huge Demand For Standard Tesla Model 3 Means You’ll Have To Wait"

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With just one factory Fremont (+ a tent) are you really surprised? Despite all the negatives … Who is doing better in BEVs?

I am very surprised at only 6 to 8 weeks. I thought more like 30 weeks given that tax credit will be halved in about 3 months and gone in 9 months. What are people waiting for? It won’t get cheaper than $36.2K, and longer wait means higher pay.

Assuming that number is accurate, they make up to 7,000 cars per week, so 6 to 8 weeks is maybe up to 56,000 all models car production. My guess is the jump from 2-4 weeks to 6-8 weeks has to do with when they plan to do the next production run of the standard model. 6 to 8 weeks is likely after the next international push. Someone should test this and order a Standard today and see if they actually get it in 6-8 weeks 😉

-They make less than 7k Model 3s/week
-Of those they make this year, less than half are for US
-Of those they make for US, not many are SR

6-8 weeks for SR is probably 5-10k orders. What’s odd to me is the lower wait time for SR+, which is a much better deal. Also no wait for LR-RWD, the best long trip BEV available at any price.

The demand for SR+ is likely larger (it feels like SR was designed to fulfilk the 35k$ promise and then be discontinued due to low demand), but they are probably also building it in larger batches, since despite being a supposedly “better deal” it almost certainly nets Tesla a larger profit.

Right, I will guess Tesla is intentionally building more of the SR+ than the SR. Tesla certainly isn’t going to prioritize making the cheapest trim level of its cars, especially not when demand so far exceeds supply.

I think short range + is the best value. You get 20 more miles range and electric seats and some other stuff. Check it out on the Tesla website. Also great that these base cars kept the glass roof. These are the best value in EVs unless you absolutely must have a hatchback. With the rear seats folded down I could lie down quite comfortably; always good to be able to sleep in your car.

Yes, I said “up to” as they are ramping up to that. Each process individually can handle up to that. I think last estimate was about 6,000/week since mid November, I suspect they are between 6 and 7k now.

The lower wait time on SR+ is non issue, as I imagine it is the more popular model, and also has less production limitations at this point. I think the standard has a battery production limitation for a few more months (also, it could be artificially limited, by just making fewer of them).

Either way, at the production rates they are running, not having much of a delay isn’t a major concern. What we need are statistics of when people order and actually receive their car to see how accurate that figure is.

The option to lease it…

A proper lease option would be nice.

Not sure what Tesla is wait for.

M3 owned, Niro tbd - Model Y on deck

Cause they don’t need to pull that lever for demand. You can’t say lease only fully loaded Model 3s–that would be a PR nightmare.

So until demand fades, no reason to open up leases.

I was told I could have a car within days just 3 days ago.

I was told they had a stockpile of optioned cars.

Standard car was ruffly a 2 week wait.

They are about at that point.

Exactly. I’m not a financial guy, but from what I’ve read, Tesla doesn’t get to count the full price of a lease purchase from a 3rd party lender. Even though Tesla gets paid up front, due to GAAP rules they have to carry it on their books as if it’s paid in monthly installments.

Stupid GAAP rules! (And you can take that either way…)

They changed how they account for 3rd party leases on 1/1/18. They now count these deals as sales.

If Tesla leases the car directly to the customer they obviously count the monthly lease payments as revenue.

Tesla wasn’t the one who changed anything. GAAP rules changed. Nothing to do with Tesla.

Weird rules. When we lease equipment to a customer, we get paid asap from the leasing company, and our job is done. We only register the product on the owner for warranty, installation needs and stuff like that – and economy wice, it’s like being paid in cash from the customer. . If we were allowed to sell expensive products like that in cash..

Tesla just needs to continue to do Tesla. Adaptability, flexibility, and creativity are what got Tesla where they are today. Letting the ‘media’ make their daily and hourly wrong guesses while Tesla exceeds ‘customer’ expectations over and again.

Doing nothing to appease the non-revenue generating mainstream media, but focused on their growing customer base is a big win for Tesla!

I think it’s great that Tesla will keep more stores open so more people can see, touch and even drive a Tesla….which is what wins customers over.

And NO, the Standard Model 3 has no risk of a price increase, that was an agreement Tesla made with its customers years ago that Tesla has followed through on.

I disagree. Bad press seeds doubt in the viability Tesla. One can ignore the shorts, CNN and Seeking Alpha, but when the management of Tesla is seesawing, that seeds doubt. Tesla needs to stop this immediately.

Future customers need to have confidence that Tesla is going to be there for them if they buy a Tesla.

Tesla has a some great products, but the management needs to get a grip and stop this shooting from the hip.

Not to say you don’t have a point, but regarding closing or not closing Tesla Stores, I think it’s good to see Tesla is keeping its options open. Tesla is still small enough that it can change plans quickly. That probably won’t last many more years; the larger a company gets, the harder it is to change course.

Closing all the Stores may not be the best business strategy.

Exactly….Tesla is a small EV company that is growing a new auto segment on a global scale, and treading waters never before by another automaker on such a scale, Tesla needs to be creative and flexible and adjust the business plan in whatever ways necessary for its overall success. In this example, whether Tesla has a store or a gallery has no impact on a current Tesla owner, but availability of service centers may be important. But Tesla needs to keep doing whatever they need to do to keep moving forward.

The thing of it is, the service center waiting rooms get really big, and employees still give test drives, even with “store closures”. Some are obviously not combo sales/SC

Once Tesla opens up leasing/financing we can expect demand to grow multiple fold. Elon is toying with us making us think Tesla is about to go under because it will a better story for his grandkids. But Tesla can always pull their financing lever and fill both fremont and shanghai factories to full capacity.

Nb. Only 10% of car purchases are paid upfront in full. Think of all the ubers and taxis alone that would lease a long range model 3.

Who will pay for the subventing required for special financing for leasing? Answer = Tesla. Question = How will this help them?

Demand will increase with a leasing product, hopefully its inclusive of the $35K version…Yet Tesla offers zero incentives (Musk said this once proudly) so their total lease amount compared to MSRP is often horrible compared to automakers who offer incentives and Tesla always requires nearly $10K down the S/X…

I ride in an uber and lyft all the time, it’s extremely rare for me to get picked up in a vehicle that MSRPed for over $30K…50% of the time, I’m picked up in a Prius…Also, I don’t know the current rules but Tesla at one point in 2017 banned Uber/Lyft drivers from supercharging…Even if that option for Uber/Lyft to supercharge is back, Tesla could ban them again once the roads are flooded with base model 3s…

Remember, Tesla is working on their own car sharing platform, probably a long shot but that could launch along side the leasing announcement…

Uber/Lyft drivers are banned from FREE supercharging while they were in service in their local market.

Since there is no more FREE supercharging for Model 3’s, that simply doesn’t apply to the situation that Kongo is talking about, which is future leases. There is absolutely nothing under Tesla policy to stop anyone, even Uber/Lyft drivers from PAYING to charge at Superchargers.

CURRENT policy that’s subject to change…With that being said, based on S/X residuals and MF, a Bolt EV can be leased at nearly half the total leasea amount as the projected Model 3 lease amount…

I don’t think they have enough cash on hand to service any large amount of model 3 leases. Plus, if you are selling everything you can make, there’s no need to take any additional risk.

Yup. There is probably a sound financial reason why Tesla is leaving leases as the last demand lever they haven’t yet pulled for the Model 3. Don’t forget, Tesladidn’t offer leases for the first few years of Model S production, either.

Tesla borrows against the value of the cars they lease, so they get back the cash they put into the car when the lease is signed. As such they don’t need a huge pool of free cash to fund a leasing program.

The finance companies won’t lend the full 100% of retail value, though, so an outright sale puts more cash into Tesla’s pocket. Lenders are also very interested in residual values, and the Model 3 is too new to have much of a track record there. Tesla would probably not get as good of lending terms for Model 3 leasing as they get for S/X.

“finance companies won’t lend the full 100% of retail value”

You are badly mistaken. Banks commonly roll underwater trade-ins into new car loans, commonly lending at LTV’s of 110% and higher (even 140% loans!). This is both leases and car loans. They don’t care about residual values, they only care that they have full recourse loans they will enforce with wage garnishments, plus charge huge fees when the buyer defaults.

Many of these lenders actually make a large percent of their profits off of the fees, and their business plan includes making money on a certain amount of loans they plan to have default. They sell the car for whatever (they don’t care) and then get the difference PLUS a ton of fees back through garnishment.

This is mainstream, and not just fringe players. CapitalOne (a huge lender) does 110’s.

But heck, anything you can make up in order to create a fake sense of Concern about Tesla purchases/loans not being able to get bank funding is OK with you, right?

Outstanding liabilities of leasing.

If resale value of returned car is less then Tesla used for lease agreement, Tesla loses that in depreciation.

“However, the automaker really had no way of knowing for sure the level of impact.” As is the case for most of Tesla’s decisions. They’re no different than any other company in that regard. Yet the financial media (who aren’t accountable to their own inability to predict the future) unrealistically expects otherwise.

Sure. If a self-appointed “analyst” gets it wrong, there generally are no consequences for the analyst. Contrariwise, if Tesla badly misjudges demand, it could be disastrous for the company. Ford was able to survive the Edsel debacle. I’m not so sure that Tesla could have survived a similar debacle with the Model 3.

I think Tesla is still figuring out where they need to be for pricing to get demand where I want. With such strong growth for a few years it is hard to know exactly. I agree, they should be less haphazard with their pricing, but I would hope it calms down soon. Maybe their march orders were stronger than they were hoping, for non $35k models (i.e., everyone bought the $37,000 model). I like that they are sticking to the $35,000 model. I was afraid they raise the price of that too and say “we offered a $35,000 Model 3″…

At least this price jump should come after Model Y announcement, so you can wait until then to order a Model 3 or hold out for Model Y. Also, 3% average change is pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things.

Yep, wonder how long they will stick with the $35k Model 3. Hopefully they’ll maintain it indefinitely, applying cost reductions due to ongoing mass production and battery improvement to fighting off inflation on this entry level model.

Since the SR+ is designed in such a way that most people would prefer it to the base SR, the latter likely represents only a small fraction of the orders. As such, it’s not such a big deal if it has poor margins, so chances are it might be able to avoid the price hikes. It would suck if the base car’s price went up before it was available internationally, it would mean Elon kept the 35k promise only to American buyers.

35k was always only the US price. VAT taxes prevent it from ever being offered at the same price in Canada and Europe

I’ll wait to see on 1Q and 2 Q to make the assessment that SR+ is out selling the SR. I see it the other way around. Now you don’t even hear about the Niro or Kona and the 3 SR and SR+probably eat their sales.

Since the Model 3 was announced at selling for the average car price in USA, that price has gone up to $37000 by some measures.
Tesla should have indexed that promise and continue to raise the price to reflect that average.

On the contrary, Tesla made the $35k promise so often it might as well be engraved in stone. If Tesla chose to raise the price now or anytime soon, their public image would take a HUGE hit, resulting in a lot of lost sales.

Tesla literally can’t afford to raise the price of the $35k Model 3. On the other hand, they don’t have to keep adding more and more standard features without raising the price, as they have for their other models or for higher trim levels of the Model 3, either.

I think he is trying to say that the median purchase price of a brand new ICE automobile has gone up since spring of 2016 when the price of the Model 3 was announced. Cuz inflation.

That would be correct of course. $35K in 2016 dollars isn’t worth $35K anymore in 2019 dollars. If indexed for inflation, the base price of the Tesla should rightly by all measures of economics be higher. And it shouldn’t have options like the glass roof from the PUP package either.

The Model 3 at the 2016 promised price, with added optional features made standard actually goes far beyond what Tesla promised in the first place.

Tesla lately has been scrutinizing WAY deep into their financials as to what they can afford and can’t afford, right down to a few percent on pricing based upon how many stores they keep open. The days are gone of spending money and figuring out the profits later. Later is now. I wouldn’t be so quick to think they don’t know how to make a profit.

‘Base Tesla Model 3 ($35,000) deliveries see a delay by some four weeks, it still appears at the time of this writing that the Model 3 Standard Plus ($37,000) stays at the two-to-four week delivery estimate. ‘

This feels like a push to get people to buy the Standard Plus over the Base. Prioritizing those makes sense. I’m not sure we can assume too much about what this says for demand for the Base.

Agree, I think base production is limited for another few months or so for various reasons, accounting for the delay over the actual demand of the car. It makes me wonder which battery the Plus model uses, does it use the standard battery, or something like the mid range battery with fewer cells?

I have no inside info, but my guess is that the SR and the SR+ have the same battery pack; I think the SR+ just has better (more efficient) power electronics.

Again, that’s just a guess.

They’re listed with the same weight, supporting your theory. I suspect SR will just be s/w limited, though. Or it could be a partially de-populated pack, like MR.

It is very unlikely they are actually the same weight. Just tge differences in the weight of power seats vs. Manual seats would make them different weights.

Intricate DOT regs on trim level reporting likely explain the identical weights being reported. It likely saves them a complete set of crash tests to treat the SR and SR+ as one trim level.

I wouldn’t try to read too much into the weights.

I don’t know I think it’s a pretty good value for $2,000 more.
If you’re spending $35,000 and have a 5 year payment. How much more does $2,000 add to the payment.

If the SR+ had an option to add AWD, I would probably jump onboard.

But you have to go up $10k to get an AWD variant.

Sounds like another demand lever yet to be pulled

Ya that was my ideal configuration as well. RWD doesn’t appeal to a large part of the population when it is cold and snowy, though I think this is not really a well informed opinion.

Sheeet who doesn’t know how to drive in Snow . I see a lot i3 in Ohio in the snow

Snow tires are better for snow the awd.

Costs a lot less too.

I see the MR getting eliminated and SR+ gets the AWD but the SR won’t

The difference is $27.78 per month in principle on their default 72 month loan term, plus whatever interest you qualify for based on your credit rating. So around $30 bucks in rough numbers.

But the real issue is resale value. After the typical 5 years of new car ownership, the typical seller will likely get back much of the $2000 in resale, perhaps even more. It is entirely possible that SR+ cars may still average a full $2K premium over SR’s for a number of years in the used car market. The main selling point of the SR is that it is cheap. So secondary market buyers will likely also want to buy cheap and won’t buy unless the used price is cheap, where SR+/MR/LR buyers will be more willing to spend more for more car.

I keep my cars to the 120k miles so no new car for 10-11 yrs

Good point

While I’m sure the lower priced options have produced additional orders, presumably the usual shift at the end of quarter to producing for overseas markets also would delay U.S. delivery times starting right around now. In the middle of the quarter, new production is largely going to U.S. buyers, so lead time will be shorter. At the very of the quarter and start of the next, lots of the production shifts to overseas market, so the same U.S. demand would mean longer U.S. waits for deliveries. 5000 Model 3s a week going to U.S. buyers means minimal wait; 2500 a week means longer.

Despite producing almost 100% overseas after mid-January, their web site showed immediate US delivery for all versions up until the 35k announcement. There’s still no wait for MR/LR/AWD/P.

Should get rid of MR

“it escalated demand instantly”
Instantly? It actually took a surprisingly long time for the delivery time to increase.

Yes, it did. And I too found it surprising that it took several days for the delivery time to shoot up. I expected it to be significantly longer the day after the announcement.

Agree

Most people waited 2+ years for this car. What is another 4-8 weeks?

Does anyone really think that the change on the website to say 6-8 weeks for the 35K model could not have been foreseen? I was surprised that it started at 2-4 weeks at all. Didn’t they have a big waiting list still to fulfill? When I went to Tesla.com the next day, I thought for sure it would show a much longer time period, and was surprised it still said 2-4 weeks.

Either the remaining waiting list for the 35K Model 3 was much lower than most people thought, or Tesla never thought they would be able to meet the 2-4 week timeframe for new orders to begin with. It could not have been both.

My guess is that the backlog for the Model 3 is now over, and the car will now enter a more down to earth sales trend. It’s an excellent car for a good price and will sell well. I’m surprised Tesla sold as many of the 50K+ Model 3s that they did. Kudos to them.

I admit I don’t get it either. Tesla knows how many remaining domestic reservations there are, and surely they have polled remaining reservation holders to find out how many were holding out for the SR Model 3, versus holding out for, let’s say, a lease option. Yes, it looks like Tesla should have had a fairly good estimate of demand for the SR Model 3.

On the other hand… maybe a lot more new orders came in for the SR TM3 than Tesla expected, from non-reservation holders.

Same thing. There remaining reservations list should have gave them a clue. I’m starting to think the reservations list was really only email address and money for Tesla and when Trims were available they just invite to purchase or not

Some people complain about Musk as a CEO yet they believe Trump. Well now Trump released his 2020 budget and it predicts trillion dollar deficit the next 4 years.This is with huge spending cuts. The GOP think Social Security and Medicare are entitlements. But Paul Ryan getting $150,000 a year pension and free health care isn’t.
Spending cuts never start with the Congressman that voted for the Tax Plan.
I’m sure there’s money in the budget to give the Congressman and Whitehouse Advisors Department Directors a raise though.
So much for Trump’s campaign promise that he’ll balance the budget in 4 years.
That the tax cut will increase revenues and pay for it self.

Wrong forum Ron.

Take your Trump BS elsewhere.

I’m in no position to throw stones, as I also have indulged in divisive political rants in comments to IEVs. But really, this isn’t the forum for that, and it’s utterly off-topic for the subject of this article.

Apparently, you have particularly severe case of Trump derangement syndrome to bring this completely off topic and misleading nonsense into EV forum. Come again how this relates to Tesla 3 wait?

If you’re paying attention, Donald trUMP will win 2020 precisely because of crazy stuff like you bring up. Conservatives aren’t going around shutting down speech or accusing everyone they disagree as racist sexist homophobe nazi. Many never wanted to vote for that a-hole, but when the alternative is deranged left, we go with a-hole over loon.

Well if you voted for Trump you voted for a Climate Change denier. Someone who would like to kill EV’s and renewable energy. So yeah Trump and the GOP are for fossil fuels and everyone should be aware of it. Especially people that support EV’s and renewable energy.

Left calling anyone Climate denier means nothing since they call everyone “denier” who’s not a socialist, even if he agrees that climate is changing and much from man made sources. “Climate deinal” from left is euphemism for “socialism denial”, which I proudly deny. Socialism = giving power to authority, I hate D…UMP, precisely why I hate Socialism that’ll give even more power to likes of him.

I like EV, because they are great cars, regardless of insignificant benefit to global climate. If your only reason for EV is “stopping climate change”, you’ve been lied to. Nothing you do will stop climate change, merely delay the inevitable by few nanoseconds, if that.

Hahahaha 7 -11

True not the topic but you started it. Trump is a winner if Biden doesn’t win the nomination

Even with Biden, I’m not so sure anymore. Regressive left have fractured the party. Biggest advertising for D…UMP are violence against apparel coming almost exclusively from the left (eg. wishing to throw kids into wood chipper for wearing a hat) and severe cases of Trump derangement syndrome as demonstrated by Ron M. That’s why I think D…UMP will win, and may even be looking at 12 years of R executive.

Here we go again.

Another Euro point of view

Talking of which (huge demand), funnily there has been in the last 24 hours two estimations of Tesla’s total (global) sales for Q1 2019.
One made by Trip Chowdhry (an analyst & super tsla bull), at 48’000 total sales for Q1 (3, S & Y) is super pessimistic, I have no clue how he reached such a low number.
Another one made by a short (Anton Wahlman), at 54K units sold in Q1.
My own estimation is 55-56K dates from 10 days ago & is about same as Anton’s. Anyway not much of the expected “invasion” of Europe and China as often hyped on this site and a good deal below Q4 2018 sales. Looking forward to 4 weeks from now as so far my estimation is looking good

This is where quarterly sales don’t tell a full picture, as it depends on how many cars are in transit as well. With ships you could easily have 10s of thousands of units in transit at the end of the quarter if not careful, like the last couple ships picking up cars from USSFO probably won’t make it to customers hands by end of the quarter. If they keep picking up cars from port through March that might mean 2 ships per week for 3 weeks is another 9,000 units that might not be available for US sale and will be in transit at end of Q1.

If you consider 24,000 shipped to China/Europe as of a week ago (15 RORO ships) and 12,000 sold in the US (Jan and Feb), you might have to hit 20,000 US sales next month. The shipping to Europe/China number might be low though. Anyway, I suspect Elon will tell us after close March 31st how many units are in motion and such, so people don’t read into a lower quarterly figure (which they will anyway).

PS The expected “invasion” rate is 3,000 per week to Eurasia. If it takes 3 weeks to ship a car there, and then from port to customer delivery, it could take 4 or 5 weeks depending on where they are going. Given they started shipping mid January (11th or so), they have only been delivering cars for a few weeks in Europe (first delivery was Feb 7th) and just over 2 weeks in China (Feb 22nd), no, they are not that far along. Wait another quarter.

Trip is always a trip, but even by his standards 30k Model 3s in Q1 is a goofball number. That would be a total disaster for Tesla.

Viking – there’s no need to speculate on ships. Tesla already told us they’ll make 65-70k Model 3s in Q1 and deliver 10k fewer. They had 8k Model 3s in transit or inventory at the start of Q1 so it should be 18k on 3/31. I estimate 12k of those will be in transit to overseas customers.

“It’s unfortunate, but it was almost expected with these people.” — “Troops”
(1997)

Actually, it is expected that every year, serial Tesla bashers like “Another Euro…” will trot out the annual, entirely predicatable drop in automobile sales from 4th quarter to the following 1st quarter, and pretend this is an indication that demand is dropping for Tesla cars.

As they say: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Serial Tesla bashers are now up to “Fool you seven times” (since 2012). Sadly, this worn-out B.S. will likely fool a few new readers. 🙁

Apparently short seller Andrew Left changed his tune today and is putting a $320 price target on Tesla.
I guess he lost enough investors money.

As I vaguely remember he has been bullish for 6 months or so, it was not today.

He turned bullish just before the Q3 earnings announcement. Great timing, in fact.

Eihorn lost a billion on shorting Tesla

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy!

/s

I was told 2 weeks just days ago.

I ordered a long range RWD the day of the accouncement (2/28) and have yet to get a VIN. So I can almost guarantee you that at least for the trim I ordered, within 2 weeks is extremely hopful thinking.
My “delivery specialist ” emailed me last Tuesday it was still in production. Supposed to get a call tomorrow but unless they can somehow get the car here (Texas) and everything else done by Thursday, 2 weeks ain’t gonna happen.

Your car has entered production but hasn’t been assigned a VIN? That seems rather odd, and certainly is contrary to what has been reported many time as Tesla’s procedure.

Texas is always slow because the sale has to take place out of state.

LR-RWD is a mystery. Why do they show it weighing the same as AWD? Probably just a mistake, but almost sounds like they are s/w-disabling the 2nd motor in a AWD car. That would be truly nuts.

Why out of state? I know that stores can’t take deliveries because of dealers laws in that state but online sales are interstate commerce. It’s in the constitution

I ordered my LR AWD the day after the announcement and had my VIN assigned the next day. I took possession 4 days later (middle of last week). I expect I got lucky and chose one they had in inventory.

“We at InsideEVs honestly think that Tesla needs to grow up a bit and stop this impulsive and unpredictable craziness if it wants mainstream media and the masses to take it seriously.”

Here’s what most likely happened; Tesla announced it was closing stores, state and local governements put pressure on Tesla to not close the stores…Perhaps they threatened to cut service center or super charger incentives or even outright ban online sales in their state if they closed the stores/galleries…

“Here’s what most likely happened…”

Seems extremely unlikely to me. I think it most likely that Tesla is simply responding to more demand for the SR+ than they expected.

Wait time is a function of supply and demand as well as build scheduling.
If you don’t know what the intended supply rate is, you cannot conclude that “huge demand” is the cause of the delay.
So what is the build rate for 3 SR?

You’re not going to get a definite answer here, that’s for sure! We may know what the build rate was, as of a few weeks or a few months ago, but we’re almost never going to know what it is. Even when Elon talks about the current build rate, it’s usually or always an exaggerated figure with lots of spin on it, rather than a true statement of the then-current actual production rate.

You getting one push

“…it’s clear that Tesla can’t possibly produce as many cars as it needs to.”

Well, we already knew that, didn’t we? Last I saw, Tesla hadn’t even opened up ordering for all Western/ Northern/ Central European countries.

Of course it’s bad for those who will have to wait for a SR Model 3, but this is a “problem” every manufacturer would love to have! Tesla will be crying all the way to the bank.

The 3% price hike for the higher trims is a bit of a bummer. Indeed, the current pricing deltas between the trim levels are small enough to encourage someone to “stretch” for the higher trim (and presumably higher profit for Tesla). As the deltas get larger, folks are likely to “stay put” at a given trim level. Indeed, I always assumed that if I pulled the trigger on a Model 3 it would likely be for a dual motor variant, but at the current pricing I think a LR RWD is the best way to go. If it goes higher, I may consider just grabbing one on the cheap and settle for a SR+ to go with our current (but older) Model S. Darn you first world problems!!!

No. It’s good. Keep the stores that are profitable and have foot traffic

@ Steven Loveday

“Checking out Tesla’s website recently revealed that Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the U.S. rose quickly from an estimated two-to-four week timeline to six-to-eight weeks.”

OK

But exactly which version of the Tesla Model 3 are you referring to?

The $35,000.- Standard Range Rear Wheel Drive Standard Interior Tesla Model 3?

Ordered my SR+ on the day of the announcement. Website still says my expected delivery: “Within Two Weeks of order placed date”. 3 more days and i will let you know if that is true or not.

I’m betting we will hear about deliveries starting this week.

Ohmmm didn’t the reservation list and the remaining 200k orders left gave them any indication that they wanted the base

Yes, Tesla gave every single reservation holder an account on their website, and at various times gave reservation holders various choices for what configuration they wanted to build for what car they wanted to buy.

Tesla has tons of inside information into the desires of their reservation holders. They have never released any of this data, so some people falsely believe that the data does not exist. because they have never personally seen it.

This is a common meme around here that repeats itself often.

Exactly but these analysts were telling that there was no demand for the base. It’s a Tesla entry a lot of people would just jump on the base ( conquest sales) just to have the Tesla experience

Ordered my Model 3 Thursday Feb 28: Friday my bank approved the car loan pending VIN; Saturday got a trade-in offer on our Prius Prime, and; completed my paper work on Monday. I never had to visit a Tesla store by doing everything via a Web browser and phone calls.

In contrast, the last time I visited the local Toyota dealer, the car I wanted did not have the driver assistance package, TSS-P. So they invited me to test drive the next model trim and I could only get more than 98 MPG, too low. They gave me an offer but didn’t listen when I said it didn’t have the MPG I was looking for.

As I walked to the door, I got their best and final offer. It was the same price as our BMW i3-REx that I ordered from Charlotte NC. My first BMW i3-REx test drive was 463 miles to home.

Why did you even go to the dealer if they didn’t have what you were looking for?

I would say they have a limit on how many base models they can afford to produce. By limiting availability and blowing out delivery times they can push people into higher trims.

Don’t be surprised if the delivery keeps blowing out. And it might not be all associated with order numbers.

Let’s set the record straight on what it means for demand for a car for it to have delivery slots sold out weeks into the future. The average car sits on the dealer’s lot for 71 days before a buyer wanders in. This doesn’t even include the time the car is stored before delivery to the dealership by the car maker which can be weeks or months more.

More than 71 days after production vs. weeks ahead of production!!! Anyone who tries to yadda-yadda this fact away is either lying to themselves, or lying to you. Don’t be suckered into being distracted by shiny objects used to try to distract you from this truth…..

We’re talking about a delta of about 3-4 months between Tesla delivery slots and typical car deliveries vs. date of production. But the crazy fake meme out that everyone should be oh so very concerned about Tesla demand!!! Tesla’s delivery slots have demand more than a full quarter AHEAD of ICE deliveries!

“average number of days a new vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being sold to a retail customer, is 71 days”

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/jd-power-and-lmc-automotive-forecast-january-2019

LOL
Not huge demand, just Musk got the initial timeline all wrong. They will make very few for several months.

M3 owned, Niro tbd - Model Y on deck

Demand outstrips ability to deliver expeditiously. 2 weeks means cars already in pipeline and matter of sourcing it to the destination. 4weeks+ means at capacity and you’ve got to wait.

It MAKES SENSE to fill any and all high end orders first then excess capacity to plow through the $35,000 cars in batches to optimize flow through.

As said above – legacy companies have DAYS ON LOT = supply significantly outstrips demand. Telsa’s demand outstrips supply still at this time

yes, still hold reservation.
And NO, I don’t car if i have to wait longer for it.
I’ve waited 3ys for this car, i can wait another 6-12 months if need be.
Let all the SNOBS & Yappies buy their expensive versions, and crash a few in the process (tho this wont be good when it comes time to insure it obviously).