Tesla Model 3 Production Hits Estimated 120,000

NOV 6 2018 BY MARK KANE 11

120,000 produced, including 25,000 so far in Q4.

Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 Tracker today states that estimated cumulative production of the Tesla Model 3 is 120,027.

We don’t know the precise number – it could be several thousand lower as some sources say that recent production was just 3,500 per week compared to 4,742 estimated by the Tesla Model 3 Tracker.

Compared to 179,858 registered VIN numbers, around 60,000 VIN numbers (12 weeks of 5,000/week worth of production) are ready for use.

Production and deliveries of Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,449 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – 53,239 produced and 56,065 delivered
  • 2018’Q4 – already >25,759 produced (estimated)

Source: Tesla Model 3 Tracker

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11 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Hits Estimated 120,000"

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The green line you mention(4,742) is the 13 week running average not what their current week rate is predicted at! That would be the Green bars behind the 13 week running average line(4,742) your getting confused about.

You can clearly see that the predicted weekly rate 2 weeks ago was over 6000/week but the 13 week average (green line) at the time was only 4200…

This is rising, go Tesla Europe is wating tm3 invasion

The other graph on Bloomberg Tracker shows production at 137,000.

Yes, but that just one side of the data Bloomberg collects, and is not be view independently. It’s supposed to be viewed in relation to the other data.
It’s because the number of VINs registered is not a direct and precise indication of how many cars have been produced.

Mine is showing 119,968 at 8:44 am MST. But at 4700 per week that is about 30 per hour, so should be there soon unless Bloomberg adjusts downward again.

5000 cars/week * 1week/5days * 1day/8hours = 125 cars/hour * $50k/car = $6.2M/hour Revenue * 25% Margin/car = $1M+/hr!

5000 cars/week * 1week/5days * 1day/8hours = 125 cars/hour * $50k/car = $6.2M/hour Revenue * 25% Margin/car – $0.5M/hour operating = $1M+ profit per hour!

From what we know, Tesla runs 24hrs/day, 7 days/wk.

Just a comparison of other methods. 13 week trailing is mine from top chart data. Added electrek and Bloomberg recent data. See last graph at bottom of page.

Better link. I believe electrek is most accurate as it shows low production for this past week and we know that Tesla is installing new Grohmann robots on the GF1 battery pack assembly line.