Tesla Model 3 Production Now Likely Exceeding 6,000 Per Week

AUG 23 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 42

After crossing the 5,000 unit milestone, Tesla seems to be upping production even more by the day

Ever since Tesla announced the Model 3, there’s been a lot of ups and downs. When launched, literally hundreds of thousands of people lined up to buy it. Most actually made deposits in order to reserve the vehicle. This yielded the best opening day for any product on the market of this kind, ever.

Bloomberg recently (well, relatively) decided to build a tool in order to help them estimate the number of Model 3s rolling off the production lines at Tesla’s Fremont, California facility. The projection uses Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs). Additionally, direct reporting on purchases from owners helps the service achieve a more educated estimate on the total production number.

Currently, the tool estimates that Tesla has manufactured 75,041 Model 3s so far. According to the data available within the tool, Tesla is building approximately 6,278 Model 3s per week. These figures represent the best-educated guess we can have on the model output.

Keep in mind that the tracker is not accurate when it comes to daily or even weekly current output, but rather, long-term estimates. Also, even if Tesla did have a week that exceeded 6,000 units or a day that would extrapolate to that over time, this doesn’t directly correlate with sustained production. Moreover, as the end of the month is nearing, we always need to keep in mind that production and deliveries are two very different things.

Back on July 2nd, Tesla reported that the company produced  5,031 Model 3s over a weekly period – the first time it passed the 5,000 unit milestone. This seems a rather impressive increase over that figure and hopefully, means that the production woes experienced by the carmaker at their Fremont facility are now well in the past.

Source: Bloomberg

Categories: Tesla

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42 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Production Now Likely Exceeding 6,000 Per Week"

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Art Vandelay

Now let’s get those margins to at least 20% and the $35K car out and it’s game over for Spiegel and friends…

Andy

You forgot the half a dozen factories to go with it – needed to up production to anywhere near the required amount to actually threaten the “big boys” in the next few years.

Pushmi-Pullyu

It’s already game over. Tesla will never need to “bet the farm” on a new, risky venture again. With the resounding success of the Model 3, Tesla has become a runaway success.

Shorters may still be able to make some short-term profits on daily or weekly fluctuations in the price of Tesla’s stock, but any rational basis for a long-term “short” investment is dead. The idea that Tesla is going to collapse financially, or even that it’s going to have to stop growing rapidly… That’s no longer something any reasonable person can believe.

Go Tesla!

Cheeze Whiz

How much of the Tesla Kool-Aid did you drink Pushi?

Robert Weekley

Standard Packaging sizes are Half-Pints, Pints, Quarts, & Gallons! Theses are available for anyone!

5 Gallon Pails and 55 Gallon Drums are available on “Special Order”, only by Owners!

Dima

Tesla’s role will probably be more in accelerating the wider industry’s move into BEVs. They won’t be producing ten million cars a year, anytime soon – i.e. they won’t threaten the sales of the industry leaders like Toyota. What they can do is to demonstrate to the other companies that the demand for EVs is already here, and incentivize them to speed up their transition from producing ICE vehicles.

Andy

Well said. Adding to that, presumably they will also become a small competitive player in the premium market space – AKA the American equivalent of BMW/Audi/Volvo/MB.

That said, if they’re happy with much lower profit margins and want to become a high volume manufacturer then they’re welcome to reduce the price and tech in their vehicles.

G2

…which is the Tesla “secret” plan Dima.😊

Gabriel

As other sub-$40k electric cars are introduced and Tesla is losing the tax credit, the short range Model 3 will finally face competition and the production will quickly meet the demand. The Supercharger network, however, still is a huge value when you get a Tesla, so I expect that many people (including me) are willing to get a Model 3 with a shorter range and higher price over the competition only because of this.

Robert Weekley

Or, currently in Ontario, Canada, All Tesla Model 3’s became $14,000 more Expensive, Suddenly, on July 11th, 2018, when the province cut Tesla Off Immediately from Rebates, while all other cars with Pkugs, got until September 10th, 2018, to be bought, and Registered, insured, & Plated, to Qualify for a Rebate!

But, then All Rebates for EV’s ans PHEV’s are GONE, here! No other stragglers will benefit in Ontario!

Quebec, however, still has its $8,000 Rebate, and B.C. still has its $5,000 Rebates!

G2

The Ontario court overturned the Ford govt decision.

David Green

haha! Did you use any data other then Vin registration to verify the supposed production? Photos, and video from the factory parking lot show something completely different, and if Tesla had hit 6K Elon would be all over twitter talking about it, so lets use our heads here, Bloombergs tracker has been high and low at all times since it started. Right now their total production estimate it is about 5K high. And before the usual suspects attack this post, go back to the last times I suggested the tracker was high, both times I was right on target. Near the end of Q2 the tracker was corrected to the exact number I posted, and used the exact logic for the changes. My track record is far more accurate then Bloombergs.

We have been reporting on the tracker progress since the day Bloomberg started it. We always keep the readership posted as to its numbers. However, I added a little disclaimer that is usually in there pertaining to its lack of immediate accuracy. When it comes to sales week and estimating deliveries, we don’t even look at the tracker. As you stated, we factor in a wealth of different sources and variables before we publish those numbers, so as to be as accurate as possible. The Bloomberg model is better for long-term, but we will still continue to run updates on it for comparison.

David Green

Of course, and you guys are the masters of estimating sales, although my guesstimates have been pretty darn close the last 2 qtrs. I think Q1 total Tesla I was within a couple hundred, and Q2 about the same. Admittedly on the sales I am not using near the data based analysis you are. My sales are just what I call educated guesses.

On the production I use data points and online survey information that has been proving to be pretty accurate so far.

I only estimate for fun, test my sleuthing skills… haha!

MDEV

Again Mr. short, we know your agenda here.

Rightofthepeople

So David, I’m curious, what’s your educated guess for Tesla sales of Model 3 (not production) in the month of August? Your track record has been fairly accurate so I’m genuinely asking for your opinion here. My complete PDOOMA number with zero use of data is 16,500 for Model 3 sales in August. What say you?

M Hovis

Yes, the blogger who calls himself David Green also repeated the UBS FUD that the $35,000 Model 3 will not be profitable. UBS states 18% margin on the $49,000 current LR version but declares the $35,000 will lose $6,000. $49,000 less 18% = $40,180 manufacturing cost. So the $35,000 version losing $6,000 has a $41,000 manufacturing cost. Got it Mr. “Green”

David Green

You are mixing gross margin, and net profit, read the UBS report and make sure you are using the same metric for both comparisons. I own a business and understand the difference…

M Hovis

And what business would that be? And what EV do you drive? And what country do you operate from?

David Green

I think you are very close at 16500, I might put my guess in a little higher as by my calculations say there were 13-14K model 3 in transit Aug 1. Right now I would go with 18K Model 3 deliveries in August Thinking the range is 15-19K. Really a tremendous month for sure. Tesla eluded to maintaining 5K a week production through July which I am certain is at best misleading. My estimates show there were no Sun-Sat calendar weeks in July with 5K production, but there were Wed-Tue 7 day periods where they were close. I am ready to speculate that AUG will be the peak of Model 3 deliveries for this qtr, and total deliveries for Q3 will be around 48K, which is outstanding. Obviously this estimate could change as there are 5.5 weeks left in the Qtr

antrik

Why would August be the peak?

xcat

As if looking at a parking lot leads to scientific reasoning…

Doggydogworld

Tech stock analysts are famous for using parking lot data.

Andy

Proxy data isn’t to be sniffed at, it’s used in lots of industries. Companies pay for planes to fly over Cushing (a major oil transportation hub in the US) to see how much oil is in there and extrapolate demand, for example.

Nix

What about when it comes from an anonymous Twitter user that also posts endless diatribes against the company, many of which are debunked?

Pushmi-Pullyu

Gosh yes, if I want an accurate production estimate, I always go to someone who has literally bet that the company will fail, a person who posts dozens of false statements about the company daily, and who uses photos of empty parking lots to estimate production.

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Counterpoint

@David Green, Do you have a link to your tracker? What do you base it on? Bloomberg said they were probably low for the last month or two, and will likely skew a bit high in the next month as their numbers even out.

David Green

I do not have an online tracker, but any day you like I will tell you what my spreadsheet says, I am at 70140 right now total produced. which is nearly 30K in Q3 which in itself is quite amazing, and following right along Tesla’s announced 50-55K Q3 guidance. Numbers are down the last week, and I am not exactly sure why or what is going on. But I have a high degree of confidence at the end of the quarter announcement my numbers will be closer then Bloomberg, unless Bloomberg makes adjustments again like they have the last 2 qtrs.

Doggydogworld

My guess is also around 70k. Bloomberg’s tracker can go off-track for a while. This happened in June when the big 5/24 jump in VIN registrations threw them off. They applied some tweaks and their “total produced” barely changed for almost a week.

Tesla’s had a similar surge of VIN registrations the past 18 days, so expect more tweaks to their model in a week or two.

I don’t know what’s going on in Fremont, but it does seem they dramatically scaled back production. It’s probably just one of their regularly scheduled down weeks to re-configure the line. Musk specifically said 6000/week at the end of August, so the timing is right for a bottleneck removal operation to help them reach the next plateau.

Nix

It is a guy on Twitter who ALSO doesn’t provide any source, and regularly parrots anti-Tesla talking points on their twitter feed. That’s why he tries to hide his source.

MDEV

I was missing the shorter comments.

Mark.ca

Yes, but….but…what about that day when they sent people home early?

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

Someone farted on the production line. they had to air the place out.

Mark.ca

It’s workplace violence. It stops now! This would have never happened if they were union.

Robert Weekley

Ain’t no Union going to Stop a Guy From Farting!!!

Billy G

even so, the source said they finished atleast 211 that day, so that may have lowered that one week 500-600 units, otherwise we’ll all see over labor day weekend how they did for August

Mark.ca

I guess my attempt at being sarcastic failed….

Terawatt

> literally hundreds of thousands of people lined up to buy it.

That’s incorrect. The vast majority of reservations were made online after the reveal, and some 30k IIRC during the presentation. Some few thousand at most reserved car unseen before the reveal, and those were the only people in line. I reserved mine before the reveal too, although there was no line at my local Tesla store.

Robert Weekley

115,000 were reserved, by the time the cars were unveiled on stage.

Later, we found out Elon estimated the number would have been more like about 60,000-70,000, so even HE Was Shocked! (Listen to his voice ‘Crack’, when he came back on stage, and mentioned the Number!)

And THAT is why they pushed for a Sooner Production Start, and faster Ramp Up! While the Ramp Up got a sluggish Start, the still were shipping to Canada about 5-6 Months before the “Late 2018” time frame, than was planned, and we, as Reservation Holders, had been told, as late this Spring!

Dima

It’s good news from Tesla. Hopefully they can ramp up to 8000 per week by the end of this year. But Toyota produces 215,000 cars per week, to put these numbers in perspective.

G2

But Toyota has factories around the world, right?

Ron M

Well we have Tesla leading the US market for EV’s let’s hope other US manufacturers and the government see that we need to win the EV battle. China’s government understands that EV’s are the future and want to be the low cost leader in the world. The GOP fought against solar panels and Climate Change and now China controls the solar manufacturing market. We could have been the leaders in solar panels instead were followers. Are we gonna lose EV’s and Storage Batteries to China. Come on GOP lead follow or get out of the way.