Tesla Model 3 Production Currently At 1/10th Full Speed – Video

1 month ago by Eric Loveday 64

The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th speed

A post shared by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has now made it publicly known that Model 3 production is currently running at only 1/10th actual of full speed.

Via release of the video above, as well as a follow-up Tweet, we can now safely report with authority that Model 3 production is moving at a pace far below full speed.

When Musk first released the clip above, it was thought, by some, that the video was slowed to 1/10th actual speed so that we could more easily capture the movement of the robots and the finer details of Model 3 welding. However, a follow-up Tweet by Musk confirmed this was not the case. Here’s that Tweet:

Elon’s Tweet On Model 3 Production Speed

The pace seems exceptionally slow, which helps explain why Model 3 production/deliveries are at a crawl right now.

Not that this particular stage of production is running at 1/10th speed, as when you pick the pace up by speeding up the video by a factor of 10, it looks mighty fast to us. Check out this example of a 10x video below:

It seems Tesla has quite a long ways to go before the Model 3 is zipping off the line at full pace.

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64 responses to "Tesla Model 3 Production Currently At 1/10th Full Speed – Video"

  1. Martin T. says:

    Cool, Go Tesla 3.
    Ramp it Up

  2. bro1999 says:

    Production hell is tough, yo.
    Who wants to bet not a single non-employee 3 gets delivered this year?

    1. bro1999 says:

      *non employee/ FOE (Friend Of Elon)

    2. bro1999 says:

      Especially with word now even employee 3 deliveries are getting delayed. Tsk tsk.

      1. floydboy says:

        Shouldn’t you be telling them over on TMC forum this? You know, to get the most bang for your buck? I look forward to your learned ‘assessment’ over there!

      2. kbm3 says:

        I will bet that they will reach that milestone this year and you will promptly move the goalpost.

    3. Murrysville EV says:

      @bro1999: You may be right. We’ll know once Tesla pushes out the estimated delivery dates for reservation holders.

      Mine still predicts Dec – Feb, but I have my doubts.

      1. Will says:

        You read it wrong, it was Feb -March of 2019.😉

    4. Mark.ca says:

      Early estimates indicated that there may be between 10k and 20k employee reservations so i will side with you on this one.

    5. unlucky says:

      Not me. I don’t think a company which took the opportunity to sell prototypes seemingly so they could claim the car is on time is going to pass up the opportunity to sell one car to a non-insider in 2017 for the PR value.

      Heck, GM basically shipped 3 (or something) Bolts in 2016 for PR. So it’s not like Tesla would be the only company that wants to show itself meeting arbitrary deadlines.

      1. realistic says:

        No; Chevy moved almost 600 Bolts, all of which were built using production machinery, to actual non-GM employees, and at the same time sent cars to media and various unaffiliated testers.

        Big difference.

  3. JeremyK says:

    Ahh, no. That 10X speed video shows that Musk is making a bit of an exaggeration when he says the line is going at 1/10 speed. Looks to me like it’s going about 1/2 speed.

    Those robots in the 10X speed video would tear themselves apart moving that fast.

    Here’s a video from a modern BMW line. Weld rate appears to be about 1.5 seconds per weld. Model 3 rate is currently about 3 seconds per weld.

    Draw your own conclusions.

    1. theflew says:

      I noticed the same thing. 10X speed isn’t realistic.

      1. Kdawg says:

        Yep. Robots don’t move like that, even at 100%.

        1. Tom says:

          The robot us operating at nearly at normal speed. The LINE is at 1/10 speed. i.e. long pauses between station to station. One or more points is the ‘choke point’ causing delay due to automation that is not in place yet and requires more manual labor than once those stations get automated.

          1. Kdawg says:

            I’m not debating the potential line speed, but saying that robots do not move like the 10x video. You can’t just turn the dial up on a robot controller to Ludicrous. You set the speed on a scale from 0-100%, but even at 100% it doesn’t look like that.

            1. JeremyK says:

              Some additional context and comments from a manufacturing consultant that has reviewed the video, courtesy of gmauthority.com

              Excerpt:
              After Musk posted a video of the Model 3 running down the production line at one-tenth of its potential speed, Michael Tracy, automotive manufacturing consultant, broke down what he saw. The video shows sparks flying as robotic arms perform the welds, something Tracy says isn’t ideal.

              “Resistance welding should make a little smoke, but when you see stuff popping out like that, that’s called expulsion,” he said. “It’s symptomatic of weld spots getting too hot because they’re poorly planned, or in this case, the metal not being pulled all the way together.”

              Read more:
              http://gmauthority.com/blog/2017/10/amid-model-3-production-bottlenecks-tesla-fires-hundreds-of-employees/

    2. Mint says:

      2-4x speed plus elimination of pauses would be close to 10x.

      The sped up video still has long pauses between welds so it’s hardly representative of the final flow.

      1. JeremyK says:

        Well yes, the pauses are what we’re talking about. The actual time to create the spot weld isn’t going to change.

        10X what Musk has shown is not possible due to physics. Those robots have mass/inertia. They’re not made out of styrofoam.

    3. Adi says:

      Whell thats what u can expect from an IT guy.

    4. unlucky says:

      I agree the 10X speedup looks funny. But it may not be just that the robots are going 10x slower but there are also longer wait times between stations. So the robots may only speed up 4x to get to full production.

      I’m not sure if I believe the 10% speed thing anyway. I guess it depends on what his idea of full output would be.

  4. Peter says:

    My conclusion is better safe then sorry. Go Elon go.
    We will wait.
    We did wait for or first model S. We did wait less for our second Model S and we are prepared to wait for the two model3 cars that we have made reservations for.

    1. Nadie says:

      Oh, that’s so sweet of you. I’m sure S. elon is going to leave you some nice present in your shoe this year.

      1. CDAVIS says:

        At Nadine said: “…I’m sure S. elon is going to leave you some nice present in your shoe this year.”
        ———

        Elon is known for doing that… I’ve received Elon gifts in my shoe over the years including a remote controlled Tesla Roadster toy & a signed Models S concept sketch… yet another great benefit of being a Tesla customer!

  5. CDAVIS says:

    Thank you Elon for the Model 3 robo po*n! …AKA Model 3 robo horror flick for the TSLA Shorts.

  6. Jiří says:

    It means 1000 TM3/week now and ~4000 in October?

  7. pjwood1 says:

    I keep going long again, as Goldman goes “40% sell off” and WSJ tries to make it seem Model 3 is tougher than Model X. Then, there’s Nomura with a $500 price target.

    The market is “inefficient”.

  8. William says:

    The slow crawl beats the alternative no crawl in Tesla Model 3 production.

    The “Rise of the Freemont Factory Tesla M3 Welding Machines” is going to be the best box office draw this season.

    1. Some are saying…
      Red….Bull!
      But it seems to to me that the BMW Video, showed proceses that are not much faster, just better Choreographed!

      The latest video shows Stamping at a good rate, and tightly sync’d Feed and Retrieve Grippers and Arms!

  9. Tim Miser says:

    Tesla made 115 M3’s last month. 10x faster means 1150 a month. Still not even close to what they need to produce monthly.

    1. Taylor S Marks says:

      You have it backwards.

      He’s saying production is running at 10% of what it’ll ultimately be, not 10x faster than it was last month.

      1. Four Electrics says:

        So Tesla is producing 1000 a week, then?

  10. Vexar says:

    Clearly, these are union robots, or they would be working much, much faster. The United Auto Robot Workers are executing a work slow-down technique to put pressure on Tesla to help the cause of unionizing the robots. There are complaints by the robots that full-speed is too hard on their servos and they are not getting enough cool-down time between welds. There is a widespread pattern of complaints over unsafe operating speeds, armature collisions, and power cable chafing. Also, the UARW wants robotic representation in the repair bay so the humans do not get sloppy because they, too are overworked. Although the UAW has failed thus far in unionizing the humans, they have moved on to unionizing the robots.

    1. u_serious? says:

      Lmao, best post yet.

    2. Robot Workers Unite!
      Fight For Clean Electric Power!
      Fight for Better Lubrication!
      Fight For Better AirFlow!
      Fight Now, or you will work in hot, High Stessed Workcells!

      (Sign a UAW Agitizer Stuck on a Red Robot, @ Freemont! A service Robot rmRemoved it, as it was ‘FOD!’)

  11. Taylor S Marks says:

    1/10th of full speed? Does full speed mean 5K cars per week or 10K cars per week? Either way, can we extrapolate from that to say they’re making 500-1000 cars per week right now?

  12. orinoco says:

    Since Musk told us that M3 will have no tow hitch, my interest in it slowed down to 1/10th as well.

    1. Arpe says:

      When did he say that there is no tow hitch on the Model 3?

      1. ffbj says:

        That was a while back, but it was people reviewing the car pointing out there is not a place for a tow hitch.

        1. They asked if certain items were standard. The Tow Hitch was originally meantioned as an Option.

          I read that Tweet story that you did, but I read it as it was written, not as I wanted to hear it!

      2. unlucky says:

        He mentioned it in a tweet last week. There was no evidence it would ever have a tow hitch, it’s just that Musk once tweeted it would.

        1. Again…They asked if certain items were standard. The Tow Hitch was originally meantioned as an Option.

          I read that Tweet story that you did, but I read it as it was written, not as I wanted to hear it!

  13. Andrewski says:

    You need to walk before you run. Production issues with new lines are more common than not.

    1. JeremyK says:

      …which is why the launch party for the Model 3 should have been in April 2018 instead of July 2017.

  14. Nicolas says:

    Full production in mid 2018 should be one Model 3 every minute => 60 / hour * 8760 hours / year = 525’600 cars per year

    So, the time max spent per assembly station in minutes is equals to the number of parallel assembly lines.

    If one line: 1 min max per station
    If two lines: 2 min max per station

    1. Fat Bloke on Tour says:

      Need to get some real world numbers into your calculation.

      First up 60 per hour is pushing it a bit for a CD segment premium vehicle — probably better to go for 40 per hour.

      Next a plant is set up for 2 shifts 5 days a week — 70 working hours per week.

      Then the plant works 46 weeks per year with various shutdowns.

      If demand is high a third shift can be added but it costs more as regular plant maintenance becomes more problematical.

      If you really want to get fancy you can tun 4 shifts over 7 days to get the hours worked up to 130 or so per week.

  15. Scott Franco says:

    I think the issue at hand is that they are beta testing the assembly line. That’s not what Elon told everyone, and in fact he announced they were skipping beta testing.

    1. bro1999 says:

      He meant skipping NAMING the “beta” phase as being “beta”. 😀

  16. Windbourne says:

    Musk has this right.
    QA first.
    That has to be imperative on this vehicle.
    Otherwise, regular car makers will slam him, but more importantly, they will not be able to afford the fixing afterwards.

    1. realistic says:

      If he were interested in “QA” then there would never be any cars built on non-production tooling delivered to paying customers. That is absolute nonsense from Musk.

      1. Did you keep up? Musk said Tesla was Skipping the ‘Trial Tools’, and going straight to ‘Hard Production Tooling!’, and many criticized him for that! Likely you did too!

  17. Get Real says:

    This also puts the lie to the WSJ article.

    I posted this at the end of the semi thread 3 days ago so nobody saw it so here it is again:

    The real reason the WSJ story is a BS hit-piece (besides the fact that Murdoch-owned WSJ is not just anti-Tesla, but anti-EV and RE) is that it is really just copied and pasted from serial anti-Tesla troll and liar Ed Niedermeyer of Daily Kanban:

    https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    Niedermeyer is the same fool that gladly took the completely fabricated story by the infamous troll Keef Wivanef of Tesla suspensions failing and “honest” Ed widely publicized it along with his equally untruthful partner and serial Tesla-hater Bertel Schitt:

    https://dailykanban.com/2016/06/tesla-suspension-breakage-not-crime-coverup/

    Meanwhile the WSJ so-called “reporter” on this story is the equally lying Charley Grant.

    Here is Charley’s twitter echo chamber replete with a lovefest of serial anti-Tesla trolls and clowns like Bertel Schitt:

    https://twitter.com/CGrantWSJ?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    these are the same FUDSTERs who are probably trolling here regularly under assumed usernames and they probably also spend a lot of time over at Seeking Liars too.

    In any case, Tesla is working through their ramp-up issues and seems determined to not go full bore until it is right which is the proper way to do this despite all the usual useful idiots here dancing prematurely about this.

  18. Scott says:

    Tesla is the first new car manufacturer in 90 years. To accomplish all that he has in such a short time plus all the R&D is amazing. He was bullied as a kid and that somewhat continues from the media and other corporations. So it is a little slow to make sure things are ok. I remember in the 1960-70’s, GM stated let the public find all the bugs, they buy everything from us anyway! Musk is the battery man as Ev’s Will bring the cost down of batteries for microgrids for home and commercial. His ultimate gift to humanity is moving us to Mars.

  19. Jeff says:

    This month was predicted 3000 cars and the reality will be around 300?

  20. Fat Bloke on Tour says:

    The video is running in real time.

    The run rate of the production line is a 10th of its planned capacity.

    4 cars per hour rather than the planned 40 cars per hour / 90 second tack time planned for volume production.

    Suggests that Tesla is still in the foothills of the S curve.

    Long way to go.

  21. Fat Bloke on Tour says:

    Looking like 200 cars max per week at the moment on one shift.

    Long way to go.

    The issue isn’t the bodyshop unless it was only switched on last week.

  22. Get Real says:

    Look a new username troll on a Tesla thread to spread more and apparently new FUD, what a surprise–not!

  23. M3 - reserved -- Niro/Leaf 2.0/Outlander - TBD says:

    Let’s see how the QA is with the ramp up. From my understanding, it’s typical US build QA overall and that’s part of our concern.

    Luckily, in San Diego, service doesn’t appear to be an issue at this time — so we’re hopeful.

    We’re still looking at Q1 delivery but more toward March/April now it appears. That’s still okay for us since west coasters. Harder for those non-west coast waiting for their standard battery.

  24. Don Zenga says:

    Quality first, quantity next. Just doubling every month is good enough. Until then, Model S/X will carry on with the sales.

  25. Jim Leverington says:

    One weld station and a handfull of welds doesn’t impress me. You notice that the video doesn’t show how the parts got into station. There is also no welding on other stations in the background. For all we know this video came from the machine vendor during development trials. Why hasn’t Musk let any outsiders in to the factory to see for themselves?

  26. Get Real says:

    Are you saying its a conspiracy Jim?

    1. Jim Leverington says:

      Not a conspiracy just the usual shuck and jive. Why hasn’t Musk invited journalists in?

  27. Get Real says:

    Why would Musk “invite journalists in” so that documented serial anti-tesla trolls like yourself can try and spin any and all Tesla news negatively:

    https://disqus.com/by/jimleverington/

    Private businesses almost always err on the side of caution in disclosing information on new products since they are after all in a competitive war.

    As the first successful start-up auto company in the US to reach mass production in like 100 years I think Tesla is smart to err on the side of caution here.

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