Tesla Model 3 Cumulative Production Exceeds 50,000

JUL 17 2018 BY MARK KANE 64

Tesla Model 3 cumulative production exceeded 50,000, according to estimations by Bloomberg.

Though output decreased from a peak 5,000 to roughly 3,500 a week.

The Tesla Model 3 Tracker indicates (as of July 17) 50,544 units produced and a production rate of 3,582 weekly. The lower output is probably related to rest of the crew after the end-of-quarter rush, as well as ongoing upgrades of the production process for a quicker pace in the future.

In the third quarter, Tesla should produce at least 50,000 more Model 3, but of course we hope for even more.

Separately, the number of VIN registrations exceed 75,000.

Production and deliveries of the Model 3 in previous quarters thus far:

  • 2017’Q3 – 260 produced, and 222 delivered
  • 2017’Q4 – 2,425 produced and 1,542 delivered
  • 2018’Q1 – 9,766 produced and 8,182 delivered
  • 2018’Q2 – 28,578 produced and 18,440 delivered
  • 2018’Q3 – already >9,500 produced

Tesla Model 3 Tracker (Source: Bloomberg)

Source: Tesla Model 3 Tracker

Categories: Tesla

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64 Comments on "Tesla Model 3 Cumulative Production Exceeds 50,000"

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With the AWD VINs coming in I would guess there’s changes to some of the lines being done. Unless they can build AWD and RWD on the same line at the same time.

There cannot be separate lines for AWD.
This would be like back in the stone age.
But of course chamges will be needed causing downtime.

I think we said the same thing. Same lines with adjustments being made.

AWD cars are already being made.

Keep going Tesla, you’re doing it!

In the last 12 months, Tesla has sold 100K S and Xs and 50K 3s. If they can sell 5x more 3s in the next 12 months (260K @ 5K weekly rate) they have a decent shot at profitability. Next up: the 35K version and a lease program.

Wait wait WAIT!! Did you just post a comment about Tesla that gave an actual neutral position? And dare I say, a tiny crack in the door for, however unlikely, but possible positive potential?

Tesla has massive, massive potential: great brand, forward thinking in many ways, unique product. That’s one reason why it’s so painful to see them bobble the X and 3 rollouts. Further, they need to prove that their cars aren’t advanced merely because they’re willing to lose a ton of money. Elon has a bit of a “shiny things at any cost” mindset. And quality needs to go up–way up.

John, let’s see, where have I heard about disinformation sources using neutral content to try and establish credibility….

Oh yea.

https://www.npr.org/2018/07/12/628085238/russian-influence-campaign-sought-to-exploit-americans-trust-in-local-news

Interesting. In the article fake accounts first sought to create trust so they could be used for credible misinformation later. You cannot accuse the trolls working this forum of ever having invested in credibility. Wouldn’t work anyway, that’s why they settle for posting obvious nonsense which will create at least a negative atmosphere around the target, usually Tesla.

Well said. If I wanted to become an anti-Tesla troll, I’d be much smarter about it than any of the Usual Suspects here. I’d stick to actual facts as much as possible.

It’s amazing how the Usual Suspects don’t even try to make their FUD believable. Sometimes I think their real agenda is to disrupt meaningful dialogue and create a negative tone for discussions, so people will leave in disgust.

LOL!! That is true!

To clarify, I was making more of a mocking free-association with current events than anything else.

It was only a temporary aberration. He quickly “recovered” to his usual Tesla bashing position, as you can see from his comment immediately below.

Yay, sunshine from you!

Actually Tesla is not over 50K yet, Bloomberg is about 4K high, watch for adjustments coming soon. Actual production of Tesla Model 3 Since July 1st is closer to 6000 as of today at lunchtime.

And how did you gather that information?

He likely did it by accounting for the announced holiday that Tesla gave to employees for the 4th of July. The Bloomberg statistical model doesn’t make any adjustments for known downtime. The authors of the Bloomberg stats know about this, and they actually don’t consider it important to have their numbers accurate down to any single week. They specifically designed their system to self-correct and be accurate of the long term instead. Their numbers aren’t based on actual knowledge of production, but on calculated projections.

They consider it a “Feature”, not a bug of their system that it will even out weekly numbers over time.

As for David Green’s actual numbers, they should be ignored too, essentially for the same reason. They aren’t based on any actual knowledge, but on his projections.

The daily totals have been leaking out on twitter for nearly 2 months, I can just add them up… BTW, the week Tesla claimed 5K the online daily numbers added up to 4969, so I would have to say these are pretty darn accurate whoever is leaking them.

Curious where you see these numbers ?

These are the working days this month.
3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16 and that’s 9 days. Even if they produce 1,000 / day it works out to 9,000 of Model 3/S/X and out of this at least 7,000 will be Model-3.
If you count today morning, it may be even more. So your # of 6,000 is wrong.

They don’t stop for weekends. They stop as necessary for changes to the line, IE, for the first week of July they were down for making changes so they could build AWD and Performance.

Wow, you really have no idea… Tesla operated every day this month so far, although just a few Model 3 were finished 2-4 July, I will assume these were cars made during the mad dash, but had some repairs, so they were not “gated” . Only Model 3 production was stopped 1-4 July, S and X were still being built over that period. Go search twitter and see if you can find the actual production data as several people have retweeted the numbers…

For some strange reason, I’m not going to take the word of a serial anti-Tesla FUDster on this… or anything else regarding Tesla. If you say it, then it’s almost 100% guaranteed to be a falsehood.

“Actually Tesla is not over 50K yet,”

….but their 2018 total likely surpasses Bolt production for 2016, 2017, and 2018 combined.

I would agree with that… by the end of the year!

Like it or not it is true this month.

Looking at the numbers, Yes, I agree, the Model 3 will finally pass the Bolt in total sales, this was something Tesla fans predicted last November, better late then never I guess…

That’s a given as all other bevs not from Tesla are compliance vehicles in the states.

Leaf is not, to the best of my knowledge.

What if in Q3 Tesla produce same number of cars like in whole 2015
And in Q4 2018 like in whole 2016
Then what about Q1 2019?

All these are bogus #. In July 1st week, it would have dropped to 3,500 since July 2nd is announced holiday for Tesla while July 4th is Independence day holiday. But in the 2nd week it would have accelerated.

I would rather wait until Aug-1 to get very accurate # from Insideevs Plug-In Sales Scorecard.

Right. The idea that the Usual Suspects here, the serial anti-Tesla trolls, are going to give us numbers more accurate than IEVs’ own heavily researched and multiple sourced numbers… that’s laughable.

Inside EVs track sales, not production. As can be seen in the article, the number differs.

IEVs reports focus more on sales/deliveries, but the staff certainly does track production. In fact, they recently added Wade Malone to the staff, because he has excellent sources of info for both production and sales.

The cumulative gap between “produced” and “delivered” for the first four quarters is 12643 cars – where are these cars?

For now, Tesla needs to deliver more cars than it produces in order to reduce the stockpile. Eventually, the numbers should even out, but you can’t just keep saying 12000 cars are in the pipeline somewhere.

They’re not “somewhere”. They’re in transit. It takes them ~3 weeks to ship from California to the Eastern US. Shipping to Washington state takes a week. Shipping overseas takes 6+ weeks. As weekly production grows, the number of cars that are in transit at any given time will increase. Also, as they begin deliveries to more places that are further away, average shipping time will increase, which will also increase how many are in transit at any given time.

It won’t even out until they reach a steady state, where they’re delivering the same numbers of cars to each geographical area in every time period. Which won’t happen for years – Tesla is still very much a growing company.

No,there has been no sudden increase in production, these excess inventory 3’s date back to 2017 when they produced a thousand more cars than sold.Any hold back for the 200K limit did not keep these cars away from their final destination, they would have been parked at service centers and sales centers to be available for delivery. Could this be the result of massive financial fraud like the salad oil fiasco long ago? Have these all been turned into scrap? And assuming they are real cars soon to be sold ,doesn’t this show the incompetence of whoever is in charge of sales? BTW After the last manager of sales left leaving millions of stock options Elon appointed himself sales manager,I mean, how hard could it be? They have a half million long list of reservations with deposits, and now twenty thousand completed cars looking for owners, how difficult ,could it be?

I don’t believe this for a second. Yes, there are 24K M3s that haven’t been delivered, but they’ll all be sold relatively quickly. Further, Tesla has a line of credit against their inventory, so the more they produce, the more they can borrow. That presumably also covers the 3s, so this surplus doesn’t cause liquidity problems. You can’t produce a burst of cars and expect them to travel to their final destinations at the speed of light. That said, I’ve heard plenty of stories about customers getting cars very, very quickly. Because there are so few variants, Tesla can (and does) overproduce a few thousand cars, but these are sold soon after they are produced. The level probably rose a bit in July, but again, demand isn’t bone dry for the LR version. The speed at which orders were opened up to everyone lead me to believe that relatively soon there will be dip in M3 production due to an easing of demand, as everyone waits for the 35K version. I think the performance version is a tough sell. But we’re not there yet, and the AWD, non-performance version has many fans ready to buy.

Globally, Tesla has a backlog of 420k units still. I know several Model S owners looking to sell and trade in for a model III performance. I think Tesla may start shipping overseas this summer.

@BroncoBet

However little the Russian troll farm is paying you, it’s too much. Your word salad attempt at FUD is laughable nonsense, not even worthy of a detailed response.

@Taylor Marks: You expect me to believe that there are 12000+ Model 3s on trucks and ships?

Sure, Tesla is a growing company, but even growing companies soon hit equilibrium with their production and deliveries – both numbers simply expand in concert over time.

There is a bottleneck in prepping cars for delivery after shipping too. Along with another bottleneck for having people come in and physically take delivery. They are working to cut this bottleneck by providing videos ahead of time and making Model 3’s available in galleries so buyers are familiar with how their cars operate before they arrive.

We don’t actually have figures yet on how many of those have been delivered.

It is actually entirely possible for them to exit this month still with thousands and thousands of new cars still in the pipeline as new cars are added to the pipeline as cars from June come off the pipeline on the other end.

Troy shows sales of 4,237 July 1-17, that is some bottleneck holding back 20K cars, and only sell 4K in the first half of July.

The gap is 20687 model 3’s produced but not delivered, simply take the bloomberg model and subtract numbers from this site which have historically been very accurate and add the 4,237 sold according to troy google invites.Then they produced but did not deliver about a thousand from last year.20,687 cars produced but not delivered, where are they? There was an article about thousands of new 3’s parked in the heat of Burbank airport, but why is this being swept under the rug? Are they undrivable,factory gated?

This FUD from serial Tesla bashers, trying to gin up some sort of conspiracy theory about supposed “inventory” cars, has been going on for years. If Tesla is really over-producing cars in order to inflate its financial reports, then give us just one VIN number from these supposed “extra” cars.

Just one. Or STFU.

Oddly enough, despite several years of variations on this conspiracy theory that darkly hints Tesla is faking its production and/or sales numbers, including variants such as suggesting “gray market” or unreported fleet sales, the FUDsters have never been able to produce one single VIN number of the supposed “extra” cars.

Gee, repeated accusations for years and years from anti-Tesla FUDsters, with never any evidence at all. What a surprise! 🙄

“On the road again, I just can’t wait to get on the road again”
“Oh Canada”

Only a serial Tesla basher like you would pretend not to understand that the more cars a company makes, the more are going to be in transit to buyers (or dealers) at any time. The number in transit is never going to magically shrink, minor fluctuations aside. The number in transit will always keep growing, so long as Tesla keeps growing!

Go Tesla!

Maybe you need to find a first-grader to explain it to you.

“Why, a four-year-old child could understand this report. Run out and find me a four-year-old child. I can’t make head nor tail out of it.” — Groucho Marx

The most accurate tracker claims Tesla is not there yet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSkckurdmbXt5Bh4dVenUhsjoal1Y6qRIkFBG_tcOhTxGp6xUL5j8DqkMPY0K9TfOCDz83A_7HGcQCl/pubhtml#

However, within two weeks both trackers are likely to be over 50K.

Yes,troy is by far the best, although this site has good sales numbers, you’d think they would add up sales and production and see the 20,687 difference. Over 50 K produced, who cares? They have only 31,857 sales.

You seem to always conveniently forget to add US and estimated to your sales or production figures. “Blame Canada, Blame Canada”

There’s my negative guy- I was starting to get worried, given that this article could be construed as somewhat positive for Tesla. (thanks for not disappointing)

Last year I posted my prediction that 50K Model 3s would be produced in the first year of production, and it looks like Tesla will beat that number by a few thousand. Expectations exceeded.

Model 3 started production July 8 2017, or so Elon announced. So about 42K is closer to reality.

This tracker has two systemic flaws.

1) It relies upon extrapolating Tesla’s VIN registrations for their weekly estimates. By their very nature, VIN numbers don’t map accurately to a narrow time span like a single week.

2) It relies upon self-reporting of EV fans, and as the sales numbers ramp up and people stop fixating on the most minor details, self-reporting will drop. They already have to estimate delivery dates to be 33 days when people don’t follow up and come back and report that they have taken delivery.

Added problems include relying upon Tesla to keep owners updated on progress in a timely fashion, and they track when people are given access to configure their order. But Tesla threw the doors open on the configuration page,

Very soon the United States will have over 1 Million cars on the road that use little to No Gas. That’s something to celebrate, unless you sell gas. LOL 🙂

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3

“The most accurate tracker claims Tesla is not there yet:”

Check again. Your tracker of choice was updated today and now shows 50K.

Good to see.

Still waiting on my AWD VIN. Looks like all other are, too.

Based on what we are seeing, it looks like Tesla has changed 2 things:

1) They no longer “open up” reservation holders to configure orders. It is now wide open.
2) Tesla is waiting until longer in the production process to assign specific VIN’s to specific buyers. Now there are VIN’s that are appearing later in the process, sometimes as little as 10 days before delivery.

Over 500k model 3s delivered by the end of 2019. They will be as common as prii were ten years ago

On July 3, 2017, Musk tweeted:

“Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3’s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.”

and

“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”

So, Tesla managed 50k in the first year of production. Of course, it didn’t *really* begin any normal production in July 2017, but that’s what Tesla said, so that’s what it gets to say when we look back to take stock. Even including the extraordinary week of 5k, they managed less than 2,000 per week.

I’m sorry fanbois, but there are only three possible explanations for this discrepancy: Either Musk is utterly dishonest, and knew very well that what he said didn’t stand any chance whatsoever of being even remotely fulfilled. Or, he is completely incompetent and has no clue what is and is not possible. Or both.

Or maybe he is simply an incorrigible optimist — as he freely admits himself.

Terawatt — Or you are just suffering from selective amnesia.

All along the way Elon also stated that there were huge risks and many things could get in the way of hitting those targets. That they could go no faster than the whatever supplier that is unlucky enough to be the slowest provider. That it would be production hell and that progress would not be smooth, but in spurts and jags. Etc, etc.

Funny how you mention the goals, but don’t mention a single one of the myriad of risks that Musk kept warning of that were unforeseeable and could delay their schedule. You also leave out the announced delays, etc. There is an entire section in their SEC reports about everything that could go wrong and keep them from hitting targets.

The only explanation for your post is utter willful blindness and selective amnesia leading you to make false accusations.

“I’m sorry fanbois, but there are only three possible explanations for this discrepancy:”

Fortunately, Terrawatt, the real world isn’t constrained to work only according to your often very narrow view of things. The real world is much more often colored in shades of gray, not the black-and-white filter you use to view things.

If you didn’t keep insisting that you know more than everyone else, while demonstrating a shocking amount of narrow and rigid tunnel vision about nearly everything, then maybe your comments wouldn’t get down-voted so frequently.