Tesla Apparently Gearing Up For Base $35,000 Model 3

OCT 3 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 134

We can only imagine the number of Tesla Model 3 sedans that will be delivered when a less expensive variant arrives.

With only three Tesla Model 3 options right now (all of which are pricey), the automaker has still been able to make huge waves with deliveries. Considering that these cars were aimed at the masses, but are priced between $50 to $80k, it’s incredible how many people are buying them each month. For this reason, many people that are opposed to Tesla have come to the conclusion that there’s no need for a base model and since it will only cause Tesla to lose money, it will never come.

Well, it seems that those naysayers may need to guess again.

If you follow Tesla news at all, you’re likely well aware that people’s stock interests play a massive role in the stories that are being published, as well as the ridiculous level of social media banter. Tesla short sellers have been trying to convince folks all along that the $35,000 Model 3 will never come. Obviously, they’ve succeeded in convincing some. According to Teslarati, Kelly Blue Book analyst Rebecca Lindland canceled her reservation and told Forbes:

I’m not sure there will ever be any $35,000 cars. I think there’s a chance the company will eventually say they’re canceling that version because there wasn’t as much customer interest, that nobody wanted it.

While it’s true that some surveys have revealed that many reservation holders may not have been interested in a bare-bones, $35,000 Model 3, this is not to say that they wanted a car that costs $50k or more. We believe many people hoped to get the base vehicle, add some notable features, and apply the federal EV tax credit if possible.

CEO Elon Musk has promised all along that the car is coming. However, he’s made it abundantly clear that Tesla must sell the more expensive variants first in order to show a profit. One of his more recent announcements pointed to production beginning in the first quarter of 2019. For that to happen, one would think that the automaker would need to begin making plans right about now. As Teslarati reports, plans are in progress.

Let’s take a brief look at what the publication has gleaned:

This is just the tip of the iceberg. The fact that Tesla may finally show a profit for Q3 or Q4 is also huge news. Not to mention the ridiculous level of deliveries that have been happening over the past few months. And … the list goes on and on.

Do you believe a $35,000 Tesla Model 3 is coming? If so, can you point to any other reasons that it’s imminent? Share your thoughts with us in the comment section below.

Source: Teslarati

TESLA MODEL 3

33 photos
2. Tesla Model 3
Range: 310 miles; 136/123 mpg-e. Still maintaining a long waiting list as production ramps up slowly, the new compact Tesla Model 3 sedan is a smaller and cheaper, but no less stylish, alternative, to the fledgling automaker’s popular Model S. This estimate is for a Model 3 with the “optional” (at $9,000) long-range battery, which is as of this writing still the only configuration available. The standard battery, which is expected to become available later in 2018, is estimated to run for 220 miles on a charge. Tesla Model 3 charge port (U.S.) Tesla Model 3 front seats Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!) Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 The Tesla Model 3 is not hiding anymore! Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs) Tesla Model 3 Inside the Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model 3 rear seats Tesla Model 3 Road Trip arrives in Tallahassee Tesla Model 3 charges in Tallahassee, trunk open.

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134 Comments on "Tesla Apparently Gearing Up For Base $35,000 Model 3"

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Clive

Yes indeed

I am one of them

I am ready to replace my Leaf 🍃

Troy

No need for me to pay $10,000 more than my 2018 S for another 10kWh of capacity.

Though 50kWh is probably the sweet spot going forward for EVs until we get some radical energy density increases.

Bjørn Vabo

We do love the higly antisipated 3 in Norway. I bet Tesla model 3 could double the bev markert share in our country by Its own
Pls Elon, bring the car to europe as fast as economy viable. Remember the hitch option and you will do remarkable well in Norway!
Bjørn1976

ffbj

Well Elon has a soft spot for Norway, understandably so, so you will probably be the first to get them, in Europe..
Maybe next Spring.

Some Guy

Doubling would be awesome.
That would be a cool 90% BEV then, after 45 % in September. It might not even be impossible, as 18 or 19% of new car registrations in September were already Model S + Model X in Norway. Granted last month of the quarter push, but still, almost one in five new registered cars is a Tesla for that month!

Windbourne

I would love to see one of the Scandinavian govs push to get Tesla to open a plant up there.
Ideally, give them a factory that is shut-down, and access to funding.
I would lay odds that it would pay off for that gov quickly.

Steve

The ex-SAAB plant at Trollhättan would have been a good fit. NEVS doesn’t seem to be utilizing it.

Robert Weekley

Things like that would be a great “Spring Board” to a local market production step, if the cost was low enough to delay a Whole New Gigafactory with their ultimate goals design of raw materials in: Vehicles & Energy Units out!

Speculawyer

Norway, you need to finish up that floating wind turbine technology and start installing them off of California. That way we both can enjoy wind-powered Teslas.

Model3 Owned- Niro EV TBD -Past-500e and Spark EV,

Tesla may punch out a few just at end of Q4 to show that it will do so and claim some got the full credit. However, makes little sense to not make as many loaded performance AWD as they can and sell for max profit margins. Clearly enough folk demanding the Performance model and a ship full of P models to either Europe or China would make good margin on the books without delivery hell logistics.

Mike

I think you are right. They will at least make a few to keep their promise. However, I don’t see demand for the higher margin 3 dropping too much anytime soon. Remember that there are still no M3 leases and better than 60% of preimium Euro sedans, like the 3 series BMW and Audi are leased. I bet there is demand for another 100,000-200,000 M3s when leasing companies get a shot.

Robert Weekley
Even just making the Long Range Model 3, in a Non-Premium product, at $44,000 US$, would be a step for some; as well as the Base Range Premium Version, at $40,000! I think those would be great stepping stones, allowing further Market reach, before going straight to the Base Range, No Option, $35,000 choice, a bit later! (Since the Non Premium Long Range Car, would be the same Shell, but with the bigger Battery, as the $35,000 car, and the Premium Short Range variant, would be the same Shell as is currently made, but with the new “Standard” battery!) I also think that offering these two selections first, would be good indication they are preparing for the $35,000 veesion, as well as potentially keeping sales profits per unit higher, for a bit longer. Basically, as leading indicators! Another variant, to step through, on the way, could be the Non Premium, Base Range, Dual Motor, Model 3, also at $40,000! I have at least 1 coworker awaiting that choice, just where I work, and while not much of an indicator, market wise, it might also be a good variant to offer, as a step towards the $35,000, Rear Wheel Drive, 220… Read more »
Bloggin

With the ability to ‘charge’ up each night, for me, the 210-mile version would be more than enough range for a week’s driving. Also, I wonder if dual mode can be added later, like Enhanced Auto-pilot and Full Self-Driving. Also, wonder if the base model battery is the same as the long-range, but we just have access to part of the pack like on the Model S.

What I am thinking is that to buy the base model, and do upgrades over the years so the car becomes ‘new’ again, over and over. Because i think over time with EVs, the price will drop year after year, so the upgrades will cost less and less as the years progress.

TeslaPlease

One could equally discern all the points described above would reflect opening up Model 3 sales to Europe. Tesla has shown little improvement in operating cash and there is lots of vehicle inventory in the United States. Why would Tesla prioritize manufacturing a low cost configuration over selling high specification models to European customers?

Homologation is underway BUT the probability of the base configuration getting to customers is less than high

Do Not Read Between The Lines

In the USA, the drop in the tax credit is coming, which is likely going to affect sales of the LR RWD.
SR RWD would only require a single motor, so if there are any constraints on motor production to max out production with AWD cars, they could dangle the $3.75k carrot and to get some optioned SR RWD sales.
(That is, of course, assuming that can improve production enough to raise margin and allow SR RWD.)

Robert Weekley

Since they have already stated they are able to, and are now consistently producing, 10,000 Model 3 Drive Units per Week at GF1, only a 20% increase in that would give a lot of options for more RWD cars, and confirming a smaller Battery Pack Design, seems to be another key step, to have Specs Verified, by at least internal Production Testing, and maybe then, first sales of the short range battery to employees, before general sales of it.

Some Guy

The “lots of vehicle inventory” is less than 9000 Model 3. In September, the sold 22.5 k in the US. So that inventory is about 12 days worth of sales. Surely, they will export higher trims for Europe. I expect performance and LR single motor first, similar to the US rollout, and sales in US will not decline. Base models will be in there, at least for all reservation holders that have not cancelled.

Matthew Kennel

If the new production line at the battery pack factory is up and working in a few months, then perhaps they could produce the smaller battery at the same margin as the larger one is currently (and the larger one gets more margin). Also if vehicle factory bottlenecks are released, then the same number of cells can go into more cars with the smaller pack.

Also, there will be production and delivery constraints in Europe for some time as well. Since these may be unpredictable a good course would be to be able to produce a variety of models and choose as late as possible to the date necessary.

Jason

$9k for extra 20kWh that’s $450/kWh. I’d say there is plenty of margin on that pack. Otherwise all the talk about $150-$200/kWh at the pack level is BS and Tesla is a LONG way away from where we think it is.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Tesla has shown little improvement in operating cash…”

What cabbage. You’ve got about two weeks, until Tesla publishes its third quarter profit-and-loss statement, to keep repeating that B.S. before it becomes as obsolete as all the other anti-Tesla FÜD.

Tesla’s profit margin for making the Model 3 can’t help but improve as it ramps up the volume. That’s not merely predictable, it’s inevitable.

John

It’s gonna be super painful for folks like you when Tesla inevitably delivers the $35k car. Luckily, however, you and your ilk are wonderfully creative at moving the Tesla bar of failure.

ffbj

I said some time ago it would be 2019 Summer, before we saw them, the base 35k model.. Maybe the are just going to get every sale they can in the U.S. first. No tariffs, well aside from steel and aluminum. also reduced shipping costs, make for an improved profit margin. Then Europe, then the RHD will take up the rear.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I’m still hoping for first quarter 2019. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but I think it’s too pessimistic to believe that won’t happen until summer — until half the year is gone.

carcus

You’re going to want a color ($2,000). You’re going to want the auto-pilot($5,000). You have to pay the destination fee($1,200) . So it’ll be $43,200.

If you get a $3750 tax credit, then you can call it $39,450. …. ‘Comfortably’ under $40k, .. and they’ll sell every one they make.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

I’d skip EAP, but even rush hour around here isn’t that much of rush. 😉

But it gets cold and snowy (which is why rush hour isn’t that much of a rush) so I’d want the very expensive heated mirrors (part of $5k PUP).

And a color, because we have an “anything except black” rule.

BojanF

I’m fine with a black car that I have to drive myself, if that saves me 7k€.

Some Guy

I like black. Black is included in the base price. Besides, other manufacturers also charge for color, and the free base color is usually a grey that does not look cool, and usually changes sometimes if too many people decide for it.

Clive

Not for $2K they don’t.

Cypress

Bolt has 7 color options. 4 are included. 3 of those 4 are metallic, including black metallic that Tesla dropped.

The 3 pay colors are only $400 options. Tesla paint option prices are crazy high.

Robert Weekley

I bet GM has a Paint Booth Long Since Paid for, while Tesla seems to still be paying for lots of hardware, both Robots, AND Paint Booth, so paint cost options might not drop, until they have a much bigger pool of cash left over after expenses, per quarter (That missing item: PROFIT!).

Clive

Completely makes sense to me.

While I want to support Tesla I’m not an investor and I don’t feel like paying for their paint booth ‼️

Dan F.

Even the upcoming Audi e-tron “only” charges $595 for colors other than black (is black a color?).

Robert Weekley

It still would be nice to see a Second Base color, besides Black, offered, by the time the $35,000 car is available, to at least give “Some” choice to those who waited so long! A single Coat White, might be nice, for those in Hot Climates!

Clive

2K for paint is just ridiculous ‼️

Some Guy

So are phones that cost more than 250 $. But guess what, as long as people are willing to pay for it, it is not ridiculous.

Clive

I’m not sure you can justify the difference between a expensive cell phone and overpriced paint for an automobile.

🚗

Scott G

Why can’t you … seems like a perfectly good analogy to me.

tko

I wouldn’t mind just clear coating the bare metal. that would look pretty neat.

S3XY

Red is the only color worth getting that Tesla offers which is $2500. $2000 for white. So I’d rather get a custom wrap with a custom unique color that nobody has than a bland color from Tesla.

I do not want auto pilot so I’ll save $5,000

Jeffrey Songster

Plain white is not offered… the reason the white costs is cause it it Pearl. I got a blue car with the white interior… really love it. I think the standard model will arrive sooner rather than later. Maybe they will make the low range battery with a software limit so folks can buy more range later.

CPO

I don’t think that Auto-pilot is as necessary in Europe. US has big massive distances between destinations, lots of traffic so Auto-pilot is seen as a necessity here. In Europe I see customers prioritizing the interior upgrade more. So SR + IUP + Color, lets say 43,000 USD for most European M3’s sold as average. Not a bad deal for those who can afford it.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Once it becomes clear that Enhanced Autopilot reduces the accident rate significantly, that should pay for itself over time in reduced insurance premiums alone, not to mention the fact that it significantly reduces your chances of serious injury or death in an auto accident.

Will

Not if you never been in an accident

tester

There are 5 colors currently and they are free, $1500, $1500, $2000, $2500.

Cypress

I really have no desire for autopilot, and I’m sure that many mainstream buyers are similar.

Clive

I could care less as long as I get the basic safety features and if somebody wants to buy my car when I’m ready to sell it they can buy it from Tesla if they want it really bad.

Rob

$35,000 Tesla Model 3 is coming and yes, it will be profitable contrary to what some analysts think. People usually forget that it will be simply M3’s with smaller battery. Based on current sales, it can be safely assumed that vast majority of those cars will be AWD, and many will have autopilot. So effectively we are taking about $40K+ cars and Tesla should be able to make profit on everyone of those. Sales of M3s at $35K will be close to zero.

Jason

Why would you think base model would be close to zero? If the drive train cost $10k and the rest of the car cost $15k that’s $25k. Tesla aims for 25% margin, so at $35k the manufacturing and oncosts needs to be around $28k. These numbers sound very achievable and don’t stretch Tesla at all. The current Model 3 I believe is making huge margins for them $1500+ for paint when every other company is around the $500 mark, $9k for 20kWh battery upgrade, supposedly cheaper car to build based on Musk comments and other independent tear downs.
I’d say Tesla are sitting back, patting themselves on the back because of how well the Model 3 has turned out so far.

Brett

To be frank, I don’t think a $35,000 Model 3 should be coming soon. If the market supports a price point above that, Tesla should increase its price accordingly. Other automakers prioritize the manufacture and sale of their most profitable models, and Tesla has previously stated its intention to produce profitable model in order to achieve bottom line profitability.

It seems apparent that there is more than sufficient demand for Tesla to produce above the $35,000 price point for the foreseeable future. That said, they may find demand tapering as the US EV tax credit diminishes, so perhaps a $35,000 Model 3 would be in the cards at that time.

stimpacker
@Brett Yes, that is a very reasonable business decision. If the demand is good, why sell a lower optioned/priced product? However, I personally do not like that. It takes a bit of the luster away from Tesla’s fixed price, no haggle, no stealership BS promise. TM3’s AWD was first declared to be lower than Model S AWD. That started out to be true to their promise, at $4000 vs $5000. Then the price crept up to $5000, now $6000. Paint went up. On the Model S, it was the options that went up. The rear child seats skyrocketed. Price creep is just Tesla’s way of implementing a “dealer markup” on hot vehicles. I agree with @Carcus. The base TM3 won’t be $35,000. Yes, there’ll be paint and delivery charges. Autopilot will remain an option but I am guessing they’ll find that it’s too much hassle to add new factory lines to make cloth seats, metal roof, standard dash, lower priced center console, etc. So the $5,000 premium option will remain. Already a lot of work making the SR battery pack. So starting price will be $42,000. Nonetheless, that should still kill sales of the Bolt, i3 and 2019 60kWh Leaf… Read more »
Clive

What’s a standard dash?

Get Real

This is a standard dash. –

Clive

Right

Pushmi-Pullyu

Apparently it’s an option which Stimpacker thinks Tesla will offer. Maybe he’s off his meds? 😉

I keep hoping Tesla will offer either a HUD or an optional instrument cluster in line with the steering wheel, but I can’t see any reason to think Tesla would spend money to throw away their radically improved dash. Other than the lack of an instrument cluster, I think that’s going to be a trend-setter.

Scott G

I was a huge complainer of the dash originally. Screamed bloody murder about it not having the instrument cluster. In fact, it almost caused me to cancel my reservation. I didn’t however and within 20 minutes of driving my new 3D last month, realized I love it as is… don’t need that instrument cluster after all. I love that car. In fact, I now wish I had gone for the P model because it is soooo much fun to drive. Moral of the story, don’t doubt Elon 🙂

MTN Ranger

Premium package has a wood dash. Standard will likely be black plastic.

TomArt

“…standard dash, lower priced center console…” there is no such thing. The dash is the dash. The only difference might be black plastic trim, like the base Model S. Nothing else about the dash will change, count on it.

Clive

That’s fine I’d be covering that wood anyway

S3XY

You are so right. It’s not coming anytime soon. We heard it here first by brett.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“It seems apparent that there is more than sufficient demand for Tesla to produce above the $35,000 price point for the foreseeable future. ”

Yup. If Tesla does start making the base version of the Model 3, it will only be because they don’t want reservation holders to give up and buy something else, not because they actually need to put the base version into production to maintain demand.

However, there is something to be said for public perception. Tesla has promised the $35k Model 3 over and over and over. If it doesn’t eventually deliver, Tesla’s reputation will take a big hit, which would cause a lot of car buyers to look elsewhere. So I do expect Tesla to start selling the $35k version early next year, altho perhaps initially in very limited numbers, and perhaps only very gradually increasing volume over time.

Rhonda Lee

There will be a 35K M3 eventually, but the question is whether any of those buyers will get a $3750 tax credit (or even a $1875 credit). Surely none will qualify for the full $7500 credit.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Yup. I don’t see Tesla making a token few $35k units at the end of the year just to be able to say they did. I think it’s going to wait until 2019. That puts pressure on current reservation holders to upgrade to the LR version, to get in on the full tax credit. And that pressure helps Tesla in that it raises the average selling price.

Another Euro point of view

If Tesla is already gearing up for mass production of the $35k version of the Model 3 then undoubtedly we will see huge profits for Q3 with an expected average retail price of Model 3 sold of $60k.

Duly taking note on behalf of our commission.

Truly yours,

Secretary of the G .A .EV. E.P.C.
(Generally accepted EV enthusiast principles commission)

Chris O

I’m sure the $35K version will come:

-Tesla needs it if it wants to keep selling Model 3 in really large numbers
-Tesla needs it for the sort of economies of scale it is shooting for and can afford to offer it because:
-It has been calculated by third parties as being profitable provided the car is produced in large numbers.
-ATP for the $35K version will be north of $40K anyway

Clive

$35k plus $1050 for freight.

$2k for paint… That’s $38,500.oo

S3XY

They really don’t. Model 3 is outselling $20,000 and lower cars starting at $49,000 and pricier. The more people that experience a Model 3 the more buyers there will be. Owners are the salesman and the sales will never stop.

Remember the 40kW Model S? That was scrapped due to low demand. Nobody wanted low range and less power. Everyone opted for the larger battery pack and more power.

Model 3 has the most demand while having a $60,000 average price tag

Pushmi-Pullyu

It’s long past tiresome to see this false analogy being trotted out. Tesla cancelled the smallest of 3 battery sizes for the 2012 Model S, because only about 2% of the orders were for the 40 kWh battery size.

Do you really think that only ~2% of reservation holders want the SR version? We know that demand for that is pretty high.

Tesla cancelling the SR version would be like cancelling the S60 back when there was only the S85 and the S60. Ain’t gonna happen. A comparison with cancelling the S40 is a false analogy. Give it a rest already!

Hauer

As long as the bottleneck is to put color on aluminium an steel I see the SR starting in the Twin Engine (yep, stole that from Volvo) configuration.
They will make a few SR RWD, but mainly AWDs.
To lessen the pain.

Scott Franco

There is a factor here I think nobody has mentioned. Nobody really knows how much the batteries cost Tesla. They don’t buy them from other parties, and all we have are cost estimates from outsiders.

Since the battery is the biggest cost item on the car, and the biggest difference between a $35000 M3 and a $49000 M3 is the battery, I don’t think anyone can say if a $35k M3 can make a profit or not.

Some Guy

Reverse engineering companies have already estimated that Tesla has material and labor cost of like 28 k$ to mass produce the 49 k$ LR Model 3. The base model has a smaller battery, so it should be a bit cheaper to make in mass production. Tesla has stated that they want to achieve 100$/kWh on cell level, and it can be estimated that 30% come on top for pack level. Assuming 55 kWh, the battery pack should be a bit over 7 k$. Plenty of room (~20 k$) for the rest of the car to become profitable even with 35 k$ base model. I mean, ICE cars full of buttons and ICE drivetrain can made for less than 20 k$ new, so it seems possible to make an EV when the battery is already there.

Doggydogworld

Why does the average Model 3 cost Tesla $51k at high volume in Q3, then? That includes a couple things that probably aren’t in the $28k estimate:

3000 – bigger battery
2000 – warranty reserve
2000 – glass room, power seats, fake wood trim on dash, etc.

Where’s the other 16k? It can’t be fixed costs like factory depreciation, that will only decrease a few hundred bucks as they go from 53k to 80-90k. It can’t be labor, they didn’t hire THAT many extra people.

Any ideas? Scrappage is my only thought, but it seems impossible to be more than a couple grand. Even $5k/car would be obscene at these volumes.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Why does the average Model 3 cost Tesla $51k at high volume in Q3, then?”

That’s not Tesla’s cost, it’s their price. Note that Tesla has raised the price of the dual motor option not once but twice, obviously in response to higher than expected demand. That coupled with the, shall we say, surprisingly high prices for optional paint colors, indicates that to some extent, Tesla’s price for the Model 3 is what the market will bear… and not necessarily a true reflection of Tesla’s costs.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“There is a factor here I think nobody has mentioned. Nobody really knows how much the batteries cost Tesla. They don’t buy them from other parties, and all we have are cost estimates from outsiders.”

Not at all. Elon Musk gave some very specific info about Tesla’s battery during the Q&A at the last stockholder meeting. He said they think they will get below $100/kWh at the cell level late this year, and he said they hope to get below $100/kWh at the pack level in about two years.

So we can be reasonably sure that currently, Tesla’s cell cost is only a bit north of $100/kWh. Admittedly we don’t know what the TM3 pack level costs are, but it’s reasonable to assume that adds 20-30% to the cost.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

“More Grohmann machines coming this quarter”

If it means more machines for Fremont, that could be a big one. They have to have the Big Tent working well, and then duplicate that to the lines in the Big Building.

CPO

Along with China Giagafactory 3 getting the other 3 GA’s line up to the same level as the Tent line should be a priority. When you own the company that makes the machines you can do it cheaper. Buying Grohmann was huge win for Tesla. Grohmann’s value is only going to go up.

Doggydogworld

GA4 in the tent has nothing in common with GA3 in the building. There’s nothing there to “duplicate to the lines in the Big Building”.

GA4 is a short, low speed line. Low automation means it’s very flexible. They use it for custom configurations, such as P models. They may have built the Euro-spec homologation test cars there, too. They’d probably build early SRs and non-PUPs there. This helps them identify design problems and such without slowing down GA3 down.

I believe the Grohman machines in question are for battery module assembly in Nevada.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“I believe the Grohman machines in question are for battery module assembly in Nevada.”

Right, those are for battery pack production at Gigafactory 1. If someone thinks those are for the Fremont plant, they are confused.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-1-panasonic-new-battery-lines-grohmann-machines-q4/

Nelson

$35k + $9k = $44K
$44K – $7.5K = $36.5K for a LR Model 3 with cloth interior, no glass roof, standard sound system, no autopilot.
They should be able to sell 60K of these easily before the end of this year if they start making them before the end of this month.

The smart buyer will wait to get autopilot when it goes on sale because Tesla will need seed cash for Roadster2.

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3

Cypress

I think you will see SR+PUP Before you see LR without PUP. Due to keeping mfg as simple as possible, before adding new configurations. Interiors are hard. Introducing New battery module into assembly is much simpler.

Robert Weekley

As well, a SR + PUP + Dual Motor, might come first, at $45,000!

CPO

I don’t really see the LR being that valuable to the average buyer. SR + IUP + Paint being the most valuable package Tesla will sell. That brings the average M3 sold at $43,000. They could a ton at that price point.

TeslaPlease

Can anyone explain why Tesla’s stock price is falling after record Model 3 production numbers and Elon’s job as CEO being safe?

Market Summary > Tesla Inc
NASDAQ: TSLA
292.78 USD −8.24 (2.74%)
Oct 3, 12:12 PM EDT

David

buy on rumour, sell on news

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Because there were comments on deliveries, but while that’s positive, it was baked into the price before the delivery note. But, the market wants to see positive cashflow (in particular) and profitability.

Spider-Dan

“Elon’s job as CEO being safe”

Perhaps the market doesn’t have the same takeaway from keeping a guy as your CEO after he’s been fined by the SEC for stock manipulation.

Robert Weekley

Stock Manipulation? See my comment above on Business Insiders trick for Stock Manipulation!

TJKR

We are still a month away from Q3 earnings and we have no idea what the final Earnings Per Share is. I am pretty confident it’ll be positive but by how much? There’s still much room for horseplay by institutional buyers, hedgefunds and options traders.

Magnus H

They met the total Q3 production guidance, but not the 6k/week production guidance.

CPO

People taking profits lowers the price of the stock.

Some Guy

Likely some daytraders that went in at below 270 got out above 300 after making their 10% from Friday to today.
Has happened before, they take their profit and move on, giving the shorts another chance to cover without a squeeze.

Doggydogworld

The NYT article which says Elon demanded the board fight the SEC and issue a statement calling him the most honest person on the planet isn’t helping the stock. Investors like to maintain the illusion that the board is a counterweight to the CEO, not a subservient lapdog.

Another Euro point of view
Good question. My take is 1/ that markets are sobering up, becoming more cautious 2/ being down 13% one day and up 13% the day after does not say much good about market efficiency to value a stock , the truth is nobody has a clue what Tsla is worth so why not put your hard earned cash in a more steady stock 3/ Tesla financial reporting is as clear as mud 4/ Tesla is taking the cream of its Model 3 customers and still no one is sure if Q3 will be profitable or not, hard to justify such a premium on stock price as compared to the fundamentals 5/ China sales are falling from a cliff and those used to be 20% of Tesla revenues 5/ bondholders are saying Tesla is not healthy and when markets are sobering up people tend to start listening to them 6/ US tax incentives & Dutch tax incentives & Canadian tax incentives are (will) being (be) reduced more or less simultaneously 7/ SEC may be really soft on Elon but that doesn’t fix Elon’s issues it between its ears 8/ car manufacturing is a very capital intensive business, Model S is aging,… Read more »
Robert Weekley

Business Insider had an article, with a headline that said they “Exceeded Production Targets”, but with a page file name (URL) that said they “Missed their targets”: guess which Title showed up in a google search for “TSLA” Stock price? Yup: the Negative URL became the Google Title for the display!

Awakeinlbc

China tariffs jacked up prides there 40%. The other automakers had similar hits. Tsla actually is doing better than them

Alaa Sadek

Why not go for the $25k straight away as they said?

Spider-Dan

I don’t think Tesla will do the same thing they did with the “under $60k” Model S40 (i.e. nobody wanted them so we ended availability before delivering a single pre-order). But I do think the $35k Model 3 will be an extremely limited-time offer. I foresee them delivering several thousand next spring/summer, then eliminating that configuration.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

There’s a sizable market waiting at the lower end of premium.

Top selling BMW and Audi models are CUVs/SUVs with a base MSRP of $41k to $42k.
But their top sedans, which currently sell about half the rate of their top CUVs (e.g. Audi A4, 3 Series), starts around $36k.
Other manufacturers are vacating the sedan market so it makes sense for Tesla to attack what is an easier space for BEVs and scoop up a bunch of mainstream buyers as well.

CPO

I can see $41,000-43,000 being Tesla’s sweet spot for the forseeable near future.

Another Euro point of view

I would put it rather around $45k but yes agreed, although not right away. In a year or 2 from now.

Some Guy

They will sell them depending on demand. I think that many buyers will take at least a few options, and Tesla has software based options that could be purchased later. And then there is leasing. After 3 years, a base model without any options coming back from a lease, can be offered by Tesla as used with AP and FSD, thus making the higher profit then.

Will

Yes, yes.

TJKR

Looking at current timeline projections, I think Tesla’s stratagy will be to build the $40K version with PUP of the Standard Battery by late December. Very few of us early reservers may get the full $7500 for the $40K but most of us will get the $3750 because they will be delivered Q1 and Q2. Same goes with $35K version with no PUP, lucky early reservers may get $3750 but most will get theirs after June 2019 and you’ll get $1,875. This is in Tesla’s best interest to sell as many LR versions as possible and use the Federal Tax Credit as incentive.

Andrew

Tesla could certainly launch the base battery with mandatory premium package and autopilot to keep their margins up. That’s probably the config most customers want anyway and would bring the Model 3 pricing down a tier.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

At minimum mandatory PUP for now. Not selling the LR without the PUP yet.

TJKR

I would not be surprised if they start selling the Long Range with no-PUP by late Dec or January. They’ll get a lot of buyers for that config.

Cypress

No way. They will do SR+PUP before LR without PUP.

CPO

If I was the average buyer I would exchange the LR for SR plus PUP. More bang for the buck. People would be happier in the long run with a better interior. You don’t absolutely need need 300 miles range, 200 will do for most customers.

Cypress

PUP, ok. But no AP package please.

Gator Rican

I agree, but the question is – For how much? 35K + $5k autopilot + ?? Does anyone know what the premium package actually costs?

MTN Ranger

PUP = $5k

Will

No pup

RPadTV

5k. This has been know since the reveal.

Eric B.

I would expect that we are nearing the time for Euro sales of the 3D/P3D to start as I reserved in February 2017 and I configured when that was opened to everyone and I am slated to receive my 3D on the 15th. I had just talked to Tesla about an hour ago.

TomArt

People need to get real, and get serious, here. Musk has always overdelivered on his promises for his vehicles, although the delivery of those promises has almost always been delayed in timeframes best measured in years. There is absolutely no reason to think that the base Model 3 will not arrive with a $35k price tag before incentives. There never was a reason to think so. The question has always been “when”, NOT “if”. You need to pay attention, and when you have like I have, you know this to be true.

Ron Long

Don’t play politics with Musk!!

Lawrence

I don’t see anything to substantiate that they are “Apparently Gearing Up”. Gearing up would be directly taking actions to manufacture. There may be talk or desire, but no “gearing up” at this point that has been disclosed.

Pushmi-Pullyu

I agree, calling the signs detailed in the article “gearing up” is an overstatement. “Signalling in advance”, perhaps; but as TeslaPlease said , these signs could just as well point to Tesla preparing to sell the Model 3 in Europe. (I wish to make it very clear that I certainly do not agree with the rest of his comment, which was pure Tesla bashing.)

Rolando

The gearing up was first mentioned during a Nevada factory visit from analysts hosted by Tesla investor relation.
This ‘gearing up’ was for new (smaller) pack design, expected in “approx half a year” (the visit was in Sep-2018)

Jason

Ha, Ha, you joke. What gearing up for you know about before they revealed the Model 3? You know what it was going to look like? That it was going to have one central screen, etc?
None of us know what Tesla is doing internally, they could roll out a steel roof tomorrow and we’d all be surprised. Unless you work at Tesla and are breaking your NDA then your talking BS.

Ling

My current Lexus Hybrid will expire next year. I will be one of the Tesla model-3 owner next year for sure. All the bears keep spinning the news about Model-3 base model not coming. The bear know the model-3 base model release will create cause the shorts lot pains !!! Stay long and Stay strong. All the way with Tesla and Model-Y will also be revealed in 2019 too.

elmechdesign

I don’t know how, but I’d really like to see Tesla reward/thank those day 1 or week 1 US reservation holders who “loaned” Tesla $1,000, and simply can’t afford more than the base model so they can get the full $7,500 tax deduction. Maybe plan a production run of 5000 black, no AP, etc… and offer to the 1st 5,000 on the list. They could repeat the process in March, 2019 to catch the next level of tax credit and so on. Just a thought. So many people love Tesla/Elon/J.B. for what they are doing, but most aren’t wealthy. (Disclosure: I’m not a reservation holder)

Some Guy

The 50% tax credit will be available until June 30th, 2019, and the 25% credit unti December 31st 2019.

elmechdesign

Yes, forgot that fact. I’m stuck in a “quarterly” mindset for some mysterious reason.

Ron Long

I am retired. The $35,000.00 is in my price range. I have lived on complete solar power for the last 25 years, No Grid Power at all. I understand better than most the importance of treating batteries NICE! Most of the community near me also live on total solar. We would all be driving and charging a $35,000.00 car with our Solar Systems.

Matthew Kennel

Almost certainly the Standard Range is coming, but not necessarily a $35,000 version. Tesla’s website promises SR in 3-6 months. Nothing else.

Doggydogworld

Agree 100%. SR yes, $35k no.

3-6 months is January-March. After numerous delays, that window has held steady for a while (was 5-8 months in August). There are also hints Tesla is preparing for overseas, with enough Euro-VINs produced for homologation testing and some Model 3s shipped to China. Tesla said they expect high Europe LR+PUP/AWD/P margins to offset lower SR margins in the first half of 2019.

This means they expect production to grow and US demand for LR+PUP/AWD/P to decline. If we see the Jan-Mar window move it means their expectations for US LR+PUP/AWD/P were off.

Gator Rican

When Tesla’s website says 3-6 months for SR – Do they mean — in anywhere between 3 to 6 months I will be able to place an order for and/or reserve a SR M3?

What then will be the expected delivery window for such an order/reservation?

Cypress

I’m seriously considering a model 3, but want to test drive before plopping down a deposit. Also, waiting for SR+AWD as an option. I’m seriously bummed they got rid of the obsidian black metallic paint option, as that would have been the color I chose to replace my current metallic black sports car. The Blue is nice though. Or the pearl white. Though I would have to overcome my general bias against white cars.

But there is only one Tesla store near me, about 20miles away, and I’ve signed up for notifications for when test drives will be available, but have heard nothing.

Will

Try again. I already tested the car, it’s wonderful. The issues I have is the large A pillars, opening the door, cramped up space and glass roof

SoCalDad1976

I definitely cancelled my reservation because i was looking for the base model and it never came… Now I’m in a 500e lease (so cheap…) and hope that the base M3 will be available before my lease ends (18 months from now).
Also, anybody has an update on the potential to remove the 200,000 vehicle cap for the Fed credit? Any chance?

Fungus

If Tesla was in it for the money, wouldnt they have chosen another approach?

The goal isnt «to make a fortune», the goal is «to accelerate the worlds transition to sustainable energy».
It’s that easy, no rocket science (in this company) 😉

Jason
That’s what I was going to post. I think there is a tension between the mission and the reality. I hope the reality doesn’t derail the mission (ie: they are making such huge profits they forget the mission to transform all levels of transport to electric). I think so long as Musk has a say then the mission is intact. God forbid when Musk leaves, then I think the bean counters take over and Tesla becomes just another get rich car company (as it appears to be at the moment). So for my money Tesla will need to make the $35k version to put pressure on all those lower priced manufacturers to up their game. If people buying Toyota Camry start buying Model 3, that would send a real shock to likes of Toyota (maybe even get them off their FCV single minded focus). The other thing I think people fail to consider is the ability to build batteries fast enough. Tesla is at the front on this part (as evidenced by the low volumes other companies are making EV’s), but still constrained. I thought of they make SR model first they could pump out 1.5 times as many cars,… Read more »
Will

Tell that to stockholders, you would get kick out

Robert Haney

My opinion, Tesla will build and deliver several million “cheap” Model 3s. They are interested in bringing the world an affordable option that will blast the reality that renewable energy is going to destroy fossil fuels. They will make that $35,000 model when the time is right. It may not be when the masses think it should be, but it will happen.