Will Tesla Deliver 100,000 Electric Cars In Q4?

OCT 27 2018 BY MARK KANE 47

Total sales in 2018 could exceed 250,000

In the first three quarters of 2018 Tesla delivered some 154,540 electric cars and we assume that in the fourth quarter sales could reach 100,000, which would bring the YTD result to almost 255,000 (comparable to total sales in the past four years 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 – 261,779).

Tesla said that Model S and Model X sales will be around 100,000 this year, which at 71,844 YTD brings the forecast to 28,156 in Q4. In Q4 2017, Tesla sold some 28,425 S/X, which makes it totally doable.

To achieve 100,000 sales in Q4, sales of Model 3 would then need to be around 72,000 or around 6,000 a week, on average.

Tesla reported that in the last week of Q3 it achieved production of 5,300 Model 3, despite mostly all-wheel-drive cars that are significantly more complex to build. To us, it sounds like 6,000 mostly RWD should be easy to achieve.

The question is now by how much Tesla will overshoot our estimate of 100,000.

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – forecast through December 2018

At nearly 85,000 sales in a quarter, Tesla has the ability to produce around 340,000 cars annually. After Q4 it should be proven that a level of over 400,000 could be achieved without much new investment.

At the pace of 500,000 in 2019, however, Tesla will be feeling constraints of the Tesla Factory in Fremont, California.

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47 Comments on "Will Tesla Deliver 100,000 Electric Cars In Q4?"

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ffbj

It won’t really matter how many vehicles Tesla produces.
Just wait till the massive competition starts showing up to challenge Tesla, later this year, early next year, coming next Summer.
Unforeseen difficulties have delayed the roll-out of “Tesla Killers” to an even later TBD date, but keep a weather eye out for the massive competition that will destroy Tesla–Jim Chanos, Gordon Johnson, Montana Skeptic, Mark Spiegel, and other luminaries on how to lose your shirt in the stock market, by betting against Tesla.

TM3x2 Chris

The competition is coming in 4 years counting from next year or the year after that.

Craigster

Sorry, Downvoted you before fully reading. Very funny. I can’t change it to a thumbs up for some reason though, it locked in my vote. 🙁

Taylor Marks

Ha, I almost did the same thing but then I saw your comment. He goes on a bit too long before it becomes apparent he’s joking.

ffbj

No worries, mate.

J. L. Brown
I slightly doubt that Tesla will hit 100k delivered vehicles in 2018Q4 — it would be nice if they did, but TM3 production for October seems well below the 6k per week average needed to hit that goal. It would be a great boost to profitability, but in the long term it does not really matter — the ramp will continue. On the other hand, it has been the pattern that Tesla does a big surge at End-Of-Quarter, and then slows production at the beginning of the next quarter to retool and incorporate lessons learned. If that holds, then 8k TM3 per week, sustained, could be achieved (along with the 100k goal) by the end of the year. The pressure from Tesla on the incumbents is uncomfortable, but very small, at the moment. Look for serious damage to the legacy automakers once GF3 and GF4 start delivering TM3 and TMY in six digit figures to the markets in Europe and China. The US market will start to pivot with the Tpickup. I will pull out a wild guess that we’ll see BMW reporting serious losses within about five years (by the end of 2024); VAG and Daimler will be doing… Read more »
olaf

Why would you see BMW make losses? There are a lot of car manufacturers that have less investment in PHEV’s and BEV’s than them.

Taylor Marks

Other manufacturers have more diverse lineups. They’ve got tiny cheap (sub $24K) cars, or pickups, or vans, or trucks – segments that Tesla isn’t in yet. BMW only makes luxury sedans and SUVs – the exact same things that Tesla makes, which means a disproportionately large number of Tesla’s sales will be stolen from BMW.

I think the time frame Brown is talking about is too long, though. It’s not going to take five years for BMW to feel pain. BMW is already feeling some pain now in the US, and it’s going to get a lot worse once Model 3 is in Europe. I can imagine BMW having a quarterly loss next year. Then Model Y will arrive in 2020 and exacerbate the issue for BMW – I don’t see them making it to 2022 without declaring bankruptcy.

Might see Tesla buy some of BMW’s factories like they bought NUMMI, to convert into Gigafactory 4. Way cheaper than building from scratch.

Chris O

Don’t know about bankruptcy but I’m bewildered that BMW doesn’t even have a hint of a serious Model 3 competitor in sight. Maybe BMW was banking on Tesla going bankrupt? Seriously, they shouldn’t believe everything (or anything really…)they read in the papers.

Clive

BK for BMW you must stop smoking so much wacky.

It will hurt them no doubt but they are not stupid and are extremely diverse.

rey

All it takes is one test drive or a weekend at the most ,even Old Fossil head John McElroy who hostsAutoline Daily became a Tesla fan when he was lent a ModX for a week, Tesla is the Borg “resistance is futile ,we will assimilate”

Paulo de Almeida

LOL … you must leave in a parallel universe where the car market is quite different.
EV ONLY count for 2% of car sales !!!! In fact VAT sales are 10% up in 2018 compared to 2017 … BMW sales are even growing in the US.
Tesla have a $11 billion debt and accumulated losses … Tesla have ditch GF2 and HAS NO MONEY for any more GF !!!
Get you dead out of the sand box … you live in an fake news ilusion!

arne-nl

Poe’s law.

Thanks for the laugh.

Dam

Competition is coming, but the main EV market for Germans EV is going to be China, they have to sell 12% of EV there by 2020 if I remember

Doggydogworld

China rule is EV credits equal to 8/10/12% of total sales. A long range BEV gets 4 credits, so they can meet the requirement with ~3% BEV sales.

Alex

It’s possible, but I think they’ll be a bit short from that.

Pushmi-Pullyu

It’s startling to think that Tesla might deliver as many as 100,000 cars globally in Q4, yet it does look likely that Tesla will meet or even exceed that figure. But then, no matter how many or few cars Tesla delivers in Q4 this year, the increase over last year has been startling, amazing… dare we say Ludicrous™? 😉

Looking at Tesla’s history, starting with the beginning of Model S production:

Tesla’s global automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)
2017: 101,312 (+32.9%)

For 2018:
Q1: 29,980
Q2: 40,740
Q3: 83,500

That totals 154,220.

If Tesla delivers 100,000 cars in Q4 — and looking at the numbers, that would actually be a modest increase — then that would total 254,220.

That would be a 250.9% increase in a single year!

Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!

Dan F.

Not to diminish their fantastic growth but it would be 150% growth, not 250%. Growth = additional production/previous production not total ’18/total’17.

Will

They could. If they deliver 28k model 3 for the next three month plus modeL S and model X

150% increase is awesome. And 2019 could be another 100% increase which would be amazing. Hopefully they can continue albeit more slowly in 2020 with the Model Y (I know I’m optimistic when I think that they will do a significant number of those in 2020 already).

Doggydogworld

101k in Q4 would be as much in a single quarter as the entire year in 2017!

I don’t think they’ll get there, though. Model 3 production is trending to 60-65k. I figure total Q4 deliveries will be 90-94k. Still extremely impressive but lacks the punch of a 100k quarter.

They might have the production capacity in Q1, but US will be disadvantaged by tax credit stepdown and the logistics of sending Model 3s overseas will make things rough.

drpawansharma

Do not jinx it

Doggydogworld
Tesla dialed back production rate forecasting. Part of that is SEC/DOJ, but part is a change in focus. Instead of a x000/week target or even a quarterly range (e.g. 50-55k in Q3), they only said Model 3 production would “continue to increase” in Q4. So figure 60-65k. The 10k/week goal is also gone. Musk said he sees getting to 7k/week without significant capex, but he didn’t say when. That’s a ~75k/quarter eventual target. The main reason for this dial-back, IMHO, is costs. They are focusing on efficiency vs. maximizing throughput at any cost. Note how the letter and call talk about “stabilized production” and efficiency measures. Here’s my current wild theory. Musk says the assembly line in China will be like GA4, which they set up in a few weeks, with near-zero capex. They will do the same in China, just in a steel building instead of a tent. They will start that line up next summer and produce 5k+ Model 3s in September 2019. They will NOT be stamping, welding and painting car bodies in September 2019. That stuff takes longer to set up and dial in. They will, instead, ship painted car bodies from the US, crazy as… Read more »
Taylor Marks

I thought the paint shop in Fremont is regularly the bottleneck? I figure painting is definitely something they’ll want set up in China ASAP. Bodies, yeah, it sounds like they’re putting those together plenty fast. Just ship the bodies unpainted to China.

Doggydogworld

Taylor, they bought a paint shop rated for 10k cars/month. They do seem to have trouble running it at speed. I don’t know why, but I figure they work through it over the next year.

Shipping painted car bodies will be a temporary measure, maybe 9-12 months, and relatively low volume.

Roy_H

I guess I have to disagree with most of your post. First the Shanghai factory will be entirely financed with Chinese investment and should not have much affect of USA expansion. Second I doubt Freemont has the capacity to deliver bodies to China without severely curtailing production in USA so they will have to set up body stamping, welding, painting in Shanghai.

I believe they will achieve the 100k production for the quarter with an upper limit of 105k. I expect that there will be a shut down in the next few weeks for Model 3 assembly line upgrades and then on to 7,500/wk production and more by end of year.

Chris O

Bring in a mix of parts to just assemble the cars in China and you still get slabbed with that 40% import tax on the whole car.

Doggydogworld

I believe they only get taxed on parts they import. Car bodies are cheap.

Batteries are a much bigger deal. I’ve read China’s generous EV incentives require battery cells that are made in China. Musk and Straubel. have said several different times they’re still working on a battery supplier for the Shanghai factory.

Taylor Marks

Your Model S and X forecasts sound reasonable, but I don’t see 72K Model 3s being delivered in Q4. I think it might be as high as 68K – I’ll be quite shocked if it reaches 72K (and I think I tend to be very optimistic.)

Benz

Tesla global annual EV deliveries:

2018: 250,000
2019: 500,000
2020: 750,000
2021: 1 million
2022: 1.5 million
2023: 2 million
2024: 2.5 million
2025: 3 million
2026: 4 million
2027: 5 million
2028: 6 million
2029: 7 million
2030: 8 million

Loboc

Why so linear? They will have four factories by 2024. Maybe five.

Benz

Yes, there will be many more Gigafactories. It’s just that we don’t know how soon they will be operating at full capacity.

Just trying not to be too optimistic.

USA in China

Agree with Loboc, why so linear? Here’s my prediction:

2018: 250k Half year of volume model 3
2019: 500k Full year of volume model 3, maybe GF3 (China) at negligible production
2020: 750k GF3 low to moderate volume, model Y begins production at low volume
2021: 1.5m GF3 strong production, model Y volume production, truck introduced, GF4 (Europe) begins production
2022: 2.5m GF4 and truck volume production, maybe other GF’s come online
2023: ? By now too hard to predict. Around this time there might be the cheaper compact that Elon recently mentioned. Gigafactories will continue to come online. Assuming Tesla keeps the cost and technology lead coming out with progressively cheaper EV’s, they could be the biggest car company by far in 2030.

Benz

Do you think that it’s possible that the Gigafactory in Shanghai will be producing EV’s at full capacity as from 1st January 2021?

That would mean 500,000 EV’s coming from the Gigafactory in Shanghai, and that would be great.

And what about the Gigafactory in Europe?

Perhaps 1.5 million EV’s in 2021 might be within reach after all.

G2

There should be some bankrupt manufacturing facilities in Europe by 2021 IF BMW/MB don’t pull their fingers out.

BoltEV (was SparkEV)

How many will use the referral code to get free charging since all Tesla are eligible to get free?

Vexar

“Tesla is headed for the graveyard.” -Bob Lutz

I think I’ll make some popcorn for Monday, just in case his doom and gloom surfaces.

G2

Who is this “Boob Putz” you speak of?

Zachary Hafen

I’m gonna say 105,000 total sales for Q4.

Model 3 sales (78,000):
October – 24,000
November – 26,000
December – 28,000

Model S/X sales at 27,000 for Q4.

Uh no.

90,000? Absolutely. 25k S/X (maybe a bit more) and 65k model 3. But 30k/70k is a bit too much, especially since it’s the end of the year and you have Christmas and everything going on. Even with the push to get as many made and in customers hands to reap the 7,500 tax credit.

Henry

I probably pull this number out of my ass: 30K in December, making the Model 3 the number selling car in the US of A. That’s something to celebrate the new year with.

Will

Yes they can

Benz

The main question is at what pace Tesla will be able to increase the production capacity of the Tesla Model 3 at their factory in Fremont California?

A delivery total number of more than 65,000 units of the Tesla Model 3 should really be considered as a possible outcome in Q4 2018.

Q1 2019: 85,000
Q2 2019: 95,000
Q3 2019: 105,000
Q4 2019: 115,000

Benz

2020 will be even more interesting, because Tesla will also be producing a quantity of Tesla Model 3 cars at their Gigafactory in Shanghai, and probably at their Gigafactory in Europe as well. Besides the 500,000 Tesla Model 3 cars at the Tesla factory in Fremont California.

But how many?

100,000 Tesla Model 3 cars at the Gigafactory in Shanghai, and also 100,000 Tesla Model 3 cars at the Gigafactory in Europe? By the way, Tesla will also be producing the Tesla Model Y at both these Gigafactories.

That would be a global annual total of 700,000 Tesla Model 3 cars in 2020 (Fremont California + Shanghai + Europe).

There is one important unanswered question: “Where in the US will Tesla be producing 500,000 units of the Tesla Model Y?”

Will they do that at a yet to be announced 5th Gigafactory (located in the US)? I hope that that is the correct answer to this yet unanswered question.

Scott

I own a Model X. I can see the popularity of the Model 3, which does everything my X does at less than half the price. What a bargin. Also, with all its new tech it is a bargin compared to an gas car. For a new car company to hit so many home runs and the safest cars first out of the gate is amazing. I guess a man that can build the biggest rocket in the world is definitely over qualified to build EV’s!

Scott

Just think what Tesla’s Data servers are worth especially with 200,000 cars of autonomous driving, worth billions! The other car manufacturers will burn thru cash especially if they lose Most their profits buying batteries from third party battery companies. Tesla’s batteries and electronics are designed for rockets!

Scott

Just received a cool update for my Model X over WiFi. No other car manufacturer can do this but they want to charge you at other dealerships. You receive so much free stuff with WiFi updates. You car always feels new with the newest software. Other cars you buy you receive what you get, one time when you purchase with at least 4 year old tech.