Skeptic Says Tesla Will Likey Hit Q3 Delivery Guidance

Tesla

SEP 26 2018 BY MARK KANE 60

Even the skeptics now think Tesla will meet Q3 delivery guidance

Tesla has said in its second-quarter report that production of Model 3 during Q3 should be between 50,000 and 55,000. If we assume some 25,000 Model S/X, total volume could be 75,000-80,000.

Deliveries could be similar because the third-quarter began with some 11,000 cars in transport to customers.

As the quarter comes to the end, even the Tesla skeptics report that the lower end of the guidance is likely to be achieved:

“Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino kept his Sell rating and $210 price target on Tesla ahead of its Q3 production numbers coming just before the end of the quarter. The analyst estimates about 27.5K Model S/X vehicles and about 52K Model 3 vehicles delivered, which is closer to the bottom end of its guided range of 50K-55K. Tamberrino adds that while the Model 3 deliveries would be just above Tesla’s “compiled consensus estimate” of 51.9K, he also sees an implied slowdown in Model 3 production based on the velocity of Vehicle Identification Number registration trends that is likely associated with the “issues with bottlenecks at the company’s paint shop”.

The biggest factor is how many Model 3s Tesla can produce, as 6,000 a week or even 5,000 a week was not sustained, besides maybe some rush days.

The second problem is how many cars can be delivered, because the delivery system has become a bottleneck, in part solved by Tesla building its own car carriers and delivering direct to door. We could guess that the number of cars in transport to customers or awaiting delivery could increase well beyond the previous 11,000.

As always, we’ll present estimated sales figures for all three Tesla models soon after the month of September comes to an end.

Tesla Model S/X/3 Production (quarterly) – through June 2018

Tesla Model S/X/3 Deliveries (quarterly) – forecast for Q3 2018

Source: thefly.com via Teslarati

Categories: Sales, Tesla

Tags: , , ,

Leave a Reply

60 Comments on "Skeptic Says Tesla Will Likey Hit Q3 Delivery Guidance"

newest oldest most voted

NOTE: CNBC and Business Insider have YET to Mention, the Tesla Model 3 passing NTSB Safety Standards with FIVE STAR IN ALL CATEGORIES.

UBS might commit suicide if they were forced to announce.
Although, Wired covered it.

Same in Denmark. I could only find 1 source of news who covered the Safety Standard test drive of a Tesla Model 3.
Though many of our news sources shared several articles about “production hell” and so fourth…

Doesn’t that make sense in Denmark? Why would you have news about a US crash test? I presume Denmark does their own evaluation or do they rely on other larger markets for that? Just curious.

But yeah this is how you tell the web sites with an agenda to the ones that just report news. CNBC and Business Insider are just shills for the oil or ICE auto makers.

I think “agenda” might be a high water mark, for Business Insider.

Because US get the news about US and the rest of the word about their country and US.
I live in Canada and a guy from N.Y. found very amusing that we news from the US

Same landscape in Canada. “Reputable” websites spread negative news 10 times more than positive ones.

Not to mention Germany!!!

Business Insider is German propaganda, not too much better than RT.

huh.
I did not know that it was Deutsche.
Now, some of the stories make sense.

Business Insider is one big journalism scam. Would be nice to investigate who is paying all that.

Rothschild

The founder of Business Insider started that rag after getting a lifetime ban from trading stocks and a $4 million dollar fine for his trading violations.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB105149629161315900

I didn’t realize that either. Well, that explains at least part of their anti-Tesla bias, but not the outright anti-Tesla hit pieces from Linette Lopez that they publish! IMHO there is a line between mere bias and FÜD, and her articles step well over that line. It’s too bad journalists aren’t licensed, because if they were, hers would be yanked for malpractice.

I think that the short speculators are more powerful than we thought, and are frantically trying to lower TSLA as much as possible.

Cheat thousands or millions out of their homes, and no repercussions for bad bankers. One tweet, and Elon’s in big trouble right away.

Hmmmm

More specifically, it’s US-based, but was acquired by the German Springer a few years ago. Don’t know how much bias that implies…

(Fun aside: the editor-in-chief was banned from Wall Street for securities fraud…)

I think you should include the rather innovative, all hands deck call, of Tesla, as part of its delivery strategy.
I mean it’s pretty crazy and says a lot about peoples dedication to the brand, It also appears to working quite well.
Tesla is a phenomenon and quibbling about 1k cars here or there is just what a bean-counter is supposed to do.
So everything comes with a caveat. Oh, yeah they will make their numbers, barely, but wait here is something else that indicates a slow-down. Grab that goal post help me move it. Typical.
A job where imagination is not required nor even desired. So such analysis is not something to hang your hat on when it comes to the value of Tesla’s stock. Certainly worth more $210, but least he has the common sense to know it’s not worth zero, as many famous short-sellers would have you believe.

The negative short news never includes a long term analysis of where Tesla will be, which makes the stock an undervalued bargain, now at $305. With the 200 day moving average at 316.
I look at the 200 day the “wisdom of crowds” number.
If you can buy below the 200 day, you’re doing good, as a long term buy and holder.

For example, Mr. Lutz says Tesla’s run-rate is 200,000 per year, that was valid only on that day, as Tesla continues to ramp and build production capacity, bringing on 3 more lines. At the end of the quarter it will be higher, in 2 quarters it will be 300,000+. So, the short analysis, and Mr. Lutz analysis is Fundamentally Flawed.
After all, how can Mr. Lutz be wrong on Tesla for 8 years?

You could say the Longs are seeing Tesla’s true value at $360 right now, and the shorts are bringing it’s value down to the current market value, giving the 200 day a price of 316. But, ultimately the longs will be right.

Also add the fact that these analysis always ignore Tesla’s Energy(Battery and Solar) and AI side shows you just how far off the mark they are.

I don’t know what earnings cash flows you expect in the longer term, but imagine the price multiple above them still looks a tad high?

That’s a reasonable way to look at it. When I used to trade I would look at the 200 day, the Williams % R. Good indicators.
FMV $325 or thereabouts.

Tesla’s current running rate is *already* ~300,000 per year. It should reach ~600,000 in a few quarters.

Boring. I think the picture is clear by now: can Tesla mass produce EVs? Clearly it can. Does it still have some hurdles to overcome to produce even larger numbers? Apparently so. Clearly no longer the stuff the “Tesla will go bankrupt because it can’t build Model 3 in large enough numbers” meme needed to have any credibility at all for the uninformed.

and yet, we see garbage coming from Forbes, Seeking Alpha, Bloomsburg, etc.

I don’t personally find watching Tesla grow its production, sales and deliveries by leaps and bounds every quarter to be “boring”, but certainly there’s no longer any realistic possibility that the company is going to collapse, at least for the next several years.

The short-selling FÜDsters will keep crying “Wolf!”, keep crying that Tesla is about to collapse and that Model 3 demand has fallen off a cliff — in fact, you can see “TeslaInvestors” doing that in at least a couple of threads at the InsideEVs forum right now — but we’re past the point at which any reasonable, informed person could possibly believe that Tesla is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy or collapse.

Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!

When These Annalalysts Put BUY & SELL Ratings On any stock They Usually Go to Those Price Points Because these Guys Have a HUGE INFLUENCE On Buyers & Sellers Alike ” PEOPLE LISTEN TO THEM & BELIEVE THEM..They Are Basically Manipulating By Dictation And Planting A Seed ,To Where the Stock Price Should Be At A Given Time …These Kind Of “GOINGS ON” Should Be “OUTLAWED” Because This “BS” Is “MANIPULATION” To The Highest Degree , These Annalalysts Plant The SEED In The Heads Of Investors , So That They Can Usually “GET” The Results/Outcome That They Usually Want/Predict .

You cannot outlaw this freedom of speech. OTOH outright lies and slander should be prosecuted, and people made accountable.

I Am Not Talking About “Freedom Of Speech”, HOWEVER, This Kind Subtle Stock Manipulation and “Setup By Prediction” Should Be “Outlawed” ! Freedom Of Speech Is Fine As It Is. These Guys Should Be Held Liable for Damages When The Outcomes they Predict Do not Come to Fruition And This Would Put A Stop To Their Nonsense .

These Annalysts “Have Freedom of Speech” That Is Fine ! But, They Should Be Held Financially Liable If Their Influential Predictions And Or Their Recommendations Do Not Come To Fruition…ie: …. BUY! … SELL!…. HOLD!…Talk Is Cheap At This Price…

Mr. Lutz’s “daily drive” turned out to be a Chevy Tahoe.
As a car guy that was hugely disappointing to me.
The Tahoe is a BUS with a V8.
It’s too big for roads to drive it as a sports car. It’s too heavy, too big for roads, and has too high a center of gravity and brick like aerodynamics, which waste the power of the V8 fighting wind.
So, it’s a stupid drive, except for taking 4 guys on a fishing trip with full gear and canoe’s on the roof.
Other that that, it should stay PARKED.
If he was really a “car guy” it would be PARKED.

“The right tool for the right job”, is probably another reason the Tesla Model 3 is selling so well. It’s the right car for driving in cities, suburbs and highways.

Constantly moving the goalposts.

duplicate

If they do hit guidance, it’ll be on the backs of fanboi Tesla owners helping out at delivery centers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-26/tesla-offers-incentives-taps-volunteers-in-end-of-quarter-rush
The fact Tesla needs to offer incentives on cars that are supposedly so in demand they can’t make enough of them is laughable.

The demand is obvious. It’s the revenue they need, hence the incentives.

If the demand is overflowing, why the need to offer any incentives at all? People are literally lined up by the hundreds of thousands to get Model 3s! Why lose money by offering incentives to move cars that are basically already sold? Unless demand is actually weaker than believed.

LMFAO again at MadBro!
If you were talking about the Bolt you would be correct, Tesla–not so much!

Are you serious? A demand issue? With NO International Sales, and No Lease Offers?
Come on troll, up your game.
Or, just go back to seeking alpha where lack of quality analysis is welcome.

That’s like arguing that Wal*Mart shouldn’t need to have $5 and $9 DVD bargain bins because they sell so many DVDs at full price. It doesn’t work that way; more income is always good.

Only a narrow segment of Model 3 demand has been satisfied. As a reminder, Tesla also sells the Model S and Model X, and sales incentives for those cars certainly can, and will, increase sales.

Also, some of those reservation holders holding out for the Standard Range Model 3, or at least a version where they don’t have to pay for the PUP (Premium Upgrade Package), might be persuaded to “pull the trigger” on their order, with the right incentive.

it is hilarious when Bolt fanboiz brag endlessly about how great it is that GM throws thousands of dollars on the hood of every single Bolt purchase, so only suckers buy at full MSRP. But if Tesla dares having an incentive on a small subset of sales in order to smooth out batch production numbers, that Bolt fanboiz become completely unhinged!

“To quicken the pace of sales, the company is also offering $100 credits toward charging.” What an enormous incentive!!! \s

There are no incentives! Quit making stuff up. Over the last few months, the price has been INCREASING!! Dual motor upgrade now costs $6k instead of $4k. Metallic paints have gone up 50%, the multi-coat paints have gone up 33%, and two metallic paints are only offered as a near-term $2.5k upcharge, soon to be discontinued!

The “incentive” of $100-worth of free supercharging is laughably pathetic in light of the price increases. Talk about trolling… go back under your bridge!

Why even offer the $100 incentive at the last minute before quarter end? Let’s assume Tesla delivers 20k Model 3’s this month, that’s $2 million in incentives given away. For a car that is supposed to be so high in demand people are willing to accept them even with defects. So why bother handing out incentives? Tesla is basically giving away free money for nothing then.

What Bloomberg missed is that the $100 supercharger credit is an incentive for the referral program, in place of the earlier free supercharging for life incentive. It’s *not* part of the end-of-quarter push. The actual end-of-quarter incentives (including free supercharging for some models) are offered only on inventory cars. That’s the point: getting rid of inventory before the quarter ends. It’s got nothing to do with a lack of ongoing custom orders.

Why are you whining about a $100 incentive when you BRAG about GM throwing thousands of dollars on the hood of each Bolt sales since the very beginning as if it were some great virtue?

You yourself got a full order of magnitude more in incentive when you bought your own Bolt at the very beginning of Bolt sales, long before GM even rolled out to most states.

Let’s assume Tesla delivers 20K Model 3’s this month. That would be more cars sold in a single month than GM sold in Bolts in the entire first 12 months since they began production in Oct. 2016. Gee, somebody BEGGED people to take a $100 bet on Model 3 vs. Bolt production numbers, where is that bravado about Bolts outselling Model 3s now, eh bro?

Funny how you are trying to spin the fact that people are volunteering to support Tesla’s efforts *for free* as a negative 🙂

Especially when the guy complaining about Tesla owners helping sell Tesla’s, runs his own website that he himself uses it to promote Bolt sales…. LOL!!!

I wonder if Tesla has sold/delivered any LR Model 3 to non-reservation holders during this 3rd quarter sales push?

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671 + BoltEV + Model 3

Me…ordered on 9/11…got a call for delivery for 15th…pushed back to 19th due to some financing miscommunication. Black on black, LR with premium package.

Exactly. It may be Black batching issue.
If you like Black you can get a car soon.

Yes. Tesla has stopped requiring reservations for domestic (U.S., and maybe Canada?) deliveries, on the currently available trim levels of the Model 3. Many customers are now ordering without a reservation and getting their car within 3-4 weeks; some few even sooner.

Model 3 reservations are still piling up for overseas regions.

and for the SR trims.

And there continues to be a backlog for people who want to lease, or who want a non-PUP LR, etc

Another Euro point of view
If some skeptics doubt the Tesla business plan I do not understand why focusing so much on short term targets as the Q3 production numbers. should Tesla sells 2000 cars less or more than the target i can’t see how that would affect the overall potential of the company. Only relevant question regarding Tesla is what happens same time next year. What will be the steady demand for Model 3 at that point when European and Asian deliveries will have started. The basic question is: can Tesla keep on selling large quantities of Model 3 at a price point above $50k as to validate the business plan. Forget about selling large quantities of Model 3 under $50k as it won’t keep the accounts above water. My personal opinion is yes they should be able to have sufficient demand for $50k+ Model 3 worldwide to just keep alive and possibly be in a position to raise new funds for expansion (Model Y). Forget the truck, solar tiles & other BS. Tesla worst enemy is probably not so much the shorts but El Trumpo. Tesla sales figures in China were reduced to a miserable trickle as from August this year because of… Read more »

It’s true that Trump is hurting the entire American car industry. Ford claims just the tariffs will cost them a cool Billion. So yes Trump is hurting Tesla too.
The other stuff you said is within reason.

What is your opinion regarding the profitability of Model 3 based on?

We’ll take the calculations of the professionals that do tear downs over your announcement, but it is cute that you think your “opinion” on a complex cost calculation means so much.

In November the first part of convertible bonds are maturing (second part is March-2019) at a strike price of 360$, hope I’ve got/remembered this info correctly.
If the TSLA price is below 360$ by then, then Tesla has to cough-up $680 million in cash in Nov-2018, if above strike they deliver new shares.

So making a profit in Q3-2018 would help to push up the share price, and makes it a little easier for fund-raising for new plants in China and Europe which cost around $2 billion for first the phase for each of them. So that might be the reason for the delivery push at Q3 end, and having a heavy millstone of cash-burning ex-SolarCity hanging around the neck doesn’t make it easier.

Hey, the worthless Bloomberg tracker has gone from 6K Model 3s a week to 3K. Where’s the article giving us the update? I must have missed it. Or perhaps this site only publishes positive spin.

IF you are relying upon Bloomberg tracker for weekly numbers, you haven’t even managed to successfully read Bloomberg’s own description of their methodology. They make no effort at making sure the weekly numbers are accurate, instead they intentionally let the model run over the long term with a goal of having a number that is accurate at the quarterly level, not the monthly level.

Back to bed troll-boy.

Whoop whoop. Tesla knocking it out the park. I don’t quite understand how delivering cars direct to people helps given it seems highly inefficient but I guess they know what they’re doing.