Major Shift Change: Toyota Announces Massive Electric Car Rollout, 10 EVs By Early 2020s

Toyota Prius Prime

DEC 18 2017 BY MARK KANE 133

Toyota announced its electrification plans for the decade 2020-2030. There’s a major shift change in the automaker’s strategy that so far was largely neglecting electric cars.

Toyota Fuel Cel Mirai gets a refueling

The Japanese manufacturer intends to achieve sales of more than 5.5 million electrified vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs) annually by 2030. That’s more than half of the automaker’s total sales.

Zero-emission vehicle (all-electric or hydrogen fuel cell) sales are to be 1 million annually.

That would explain why there is a need to study the battery topic with Panasonic.

By 2025, Toyota will electrify every model in the Toyota and Lexus line-up around the world. .

As a result, the number of models developed without an electrified version will be zero.”

This all means that a lot of new plug-ins are coming from Toyota. By the early 2020s, Toyota will introduce more than 10 BEV models worldwide. If we assume a 5-6 year timeframe, that works out to two new BEVs every year on average.

An all-electric Toyota will be first introduced in China, then gradual introduction to Japan, India, United States and Europe is expected.

Even with a major shift to plug-ins, Toyota still hints at some hydrogen fuel cell expansion too, but without any details – The FCEV line-up will be expanded for both passenger and commercial vehicles in the 2020s.

Press release:

Toyota Aims for Sales of More Than 5.5 Million Electrified Vehicles Including 1 Million Zero-Emission Vehicles per Year by 2030

Electrified vehicles to be available across the entire Toyota and Lexus line-up by around 2025

Toyota City, Japan, December 18, 2017―Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota) announces today its plans toward the popularization of electrified vehicles for the decade 2020-2030. Toyota’s electrified vehicle strategy centers on a significant acceleration in the development and launch plans of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

Toyota has been working toward creating ever-better cars and an ever-better society under the thinking of contributing to a sustainable society and creating mobility that brings smiles to customers. Addressing environmental challenges, such as global warming, air pollution, and limited natural resources and energy supply are of utmost importance to Toyota. “Environment” is one of the anchors of the company’s product development, alongside “safety/peace of mind” and “emotion.” Electrified vehicles, which are effective for economical consumption of fuel and promoting usage of alternative fuels, are indispensable in helping to solve current environmental issues. In October 2015, Toyota launched the Toyota Environmental Challenge 2050, which aims to reduce the negative impact of manufacturing and driving vehicles as much as possible and contribute to realizing a sustainable society. In the ever-better cars category, Toyota aims to reduce global average new-vehicle CO2 emissions by 90 percent from 2010 levels. Today’s announcement is the main pillar of a mid-to-long-term initiative to achieve this challenge.

Electrification across the entire Toyota and Lexus line-up
  • By around 2030, Toyota aims to have sales of more than 5.5 million electrified vehicles, including more than 1 million zero-emission vehicles (BEVs, FCEVs).
  • Additionally, by around 2025, every model in the Toyota and Lexus line-up around the world will be available either as a dedicated electrified model or have an electrified option. This will be achieved by increasing the number of dedicated HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV models and by generalizing the availability of HEV, PHEV and/or BEV options to all its models.
  • As a result, the number of models developed without an electrified version will be zero.
Zero-emission Vehicles
  • Toyota will accelerate the popularization of BEVs with more than 10 BEV models to be available worldwide by the early 2020s, starting in China, before entering other markets―the gradual introduction to Japan, India, United States and Europe is expected.
  • The FCEV line-up will be expanded for both passenger and commercial vehicles in the 2020s.
Hybrid Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  • The HEV line-up will also grow, thanks to the further development of the Toyota Hybrid System II (featured in the current-generation Prius and other models); the introduction of a more powerful version in some models; and the development of simpler hybrid systems in select models, as appropriate, to meet various customer needs.
  • Toyota also aims to expand its PHEV line-up in the 2020s.

Batteries are a core technology of electrified vehicles and generally present limitations relating to energy density, weight/packaging, and cost. Toyota has been actively developing next-generation solid-state batteries and aims to commercialize the technology by the early 2020s. In addition, Toyota and Panasonic will start a feasibility study on a joint automotive prismatic battery business in order to achieve the best automotive prismatic battery in the industry and to ultimately contribute to the popularization of Toyota’s and other automakers’ electrified vehicles.

Furthermore, Toyota aims to focus on the development of a social infrastructure conducive to the widespread adoption of electrified vehicles. This includes the creation of a system to help streamline battery reuse and recycling, as well as support of the promotion of plug-in vehicle charging stations and hydrogen refueling stations through active cooperation and collaboration with government authorities and partner companies.

Toyota has been a leader in making vehicles while keeping the environment in mind. This is evident through the introduction of the iconic Prius 20 years ago, as well as the launch of the world’s first PHEV, the Prius PHV, in 2012. The second-generation Prius PHV, introduced in 2017, further increased the vehicle’s electric mode cruising range. Additionally, in 2014 Toyota launched the world’s first mass-produced fuel cell sedan, the Mirai, which is being well-received by customers in Japan, the U.S., and Europe. Through these activities, Toyota sales of electrified vehicles have reached more than 11 million units worldwide to date.

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133 Comments on "Major Shift Change: Toyota Announces Massive Electric Car Rollout, 10 EVs By Early 2020s"

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Better late than never?

Fashionably Late, or so they appear!

Idiots up to this point!

They are hardly idiots; They sell 10 million personal road vehicles per year and are quite profitable. They have been a pioneer in developing and offering highly effecient powertrains. They are market driven rather than idiologically driven.

They may not be doing exactly what you, as an EV enthusiast, think they should be doing but if I owned Toyota stock (which I don’t) I’d rather have them running the company than you.

Clearly they figured out they’d better pull their head out of their asses. About as stubborn as they come.

And I will never buy a Toyota regardless.

@Dan, “They are market driven rather than idiologically driven.” Really ?

Where is the market for Mirai ? About 1,000 Mirai a year at big lost per Mirai is “market driven” ?

Oops, awkward moment there for Dan and other fans of the slow walk approach to the inevitable.

BTW , where is that fool cell shill zzzzzz?

I’m guessing he doesn’t like this news very much.

+1

Someone said long ago that cheering for the New York Yankees is like cheering for United States Steel. I guess these days it’s not unusual to find people who worship conservative, oligopolistic establishment corporations that own governments and dictate content to the media rather than innovate. I’d rather we didn’t worship any corporations at all, much less give them free advertising across our clothing, but I don’t see the status quo tyrants falling under our current system unless other corporations challenge them with public support. Toyota was the latter, long ago.

I’m honestly not sure why anyone likes Toyota. The Prius was innovative, but since then they’ve done nothing much. Their cars are bland and boring–not terrible to drive but not great either.

I don’t really see why they couldn’t have continued their basc strategy while still building on their previous success with the Prius. I think they managed to forfeit a lot of their green cred, and rightfully so

Early Tercels and Corollas were cheap, efficient and nearly bullet proof. There is a reason CR loves them and it lies in their past reliability at a time when other car makers were not nearly as reliable.
Nowadays, not so much.

Or a sensible long term strategy. Why waste money in an immature market? Let the competitors open up the market and then swoop in and grab a huge chunk of it.

Bingo!

Toyota seems confident it will have the solid state battery technology available by the early 2020’s (earlier reports say by 2020) that may decouple battery technology from the pricey lithium and cobalt components.

I’m not cancelling my Tesla Model 3 reservation yet but if Toyota provides more updates by Late 2018 / Early 2019 (Canadian configuration timeline for the TM3), I may cancel or just opt for the base model + Long Range battery and skip the rest of the upgrades. The money saved can be used for a Toyota BEV down the road.

So their strategy is working. Vaporware to change your short term buying pattern.

Ok – not necessarily vaporware but they see the writing on the wall so they announce vehicles that haven’t even been designed yet to get you to change your buying patterns.

Oh.. it is definitely Vaporware… and the amazing thing is that after their failed merge with Tesla (RAV4EV because Tesla wasn’t stodgy enough for them)… they are trying to push all this out another 5 to 10 years… just like last time. Trying to choke a few more eggs out of their oil soaked golden goose. (ICE fartmobiles) Toyota is a true dinosaur now. They are horribly wrong. They are cynically trying to foist off fool cells… push back on electrification… come on everyone… back to the marginal changes we can still rake profits on massively as opposed to having to actually innovate… Super sad to see how the mighty cling to the past. Loved our Prius… not much since…

Yes!

No sensible thinking there in my POV.
China just made Toyota dive into it.
They had the choice, build and sold EV in a uptrend manner or don’t do any, I say any, business with China.

Case selve!

Case solve!

solved!

Da..it, where is the edit button?

And this is why capitalists are full of crap when they talk about themselves as being responsible for everything good in our lives. No, they let someone else invent those things, then overran them with the power of Wall Street backing. The history of early US automakers is full of brilliant engineers who started their own companies only to get run out when their own greedy Boards of Directors betrayed them and took everything – it happened to Henry Leland twice, as the founder of both Cadillac and Lincoln.

Cadillac was part of a bankrupt company when Chevrolet bought them in 1910.

It’s just different business strategies. Some companies think that they will get a competitive advantage by being pioneers. Nissan and Tesla went this route with regards to BEVs.

Other companies are confident that they can add value once they see where the market is going. Toyota knows that they are good at making cars so this is what Toyota chose when it comes to BEVs. Note that Toyota went the other way with fuel cells vehicles but that didn’t work out very well.

Some companies are not interested in the market at all, FCA comes to mind here. Eventually they will have to follow suit as well but it’s not likely we will see much innovation from there in a while.

My exact thought – let’s hope they bring all their efficiency chops, and don’t use a warmed over Mirai.

Bahaha, kicking & screaming, thanks China.

At least there will be more plugins on the roads, even if they are made with the bemoan of the auto company.

pretty much this. saying toyota had the foresight “to wait for a more mature market” is undoubtedly giving them too much credit.

Well this is a natural progression for Toyota…. The only thing I’m a bit concerned about is, what percentage of these are Hydrogen Vehicles? I don’t consider these electrics and find them exactly analogous to an Old Prius. Yes they have an electric motor turning the wheels, but there is no utility electricity involved anywhere.

Yet despite Mr. Cole’s partial denial, IEV’s covers the Toyota Mirai but not the old Prius – whereas I consider both vehicles mostly the same – except that in my area Hydrogen is expensive and essentially non-existent, whereas Gasoline is ubiquitous and cheap.

Toyota is the only large automaker that REALLY cares about efficiency, as oft-time commmenter Star Trek John will attest to, both in electrical, and ICE efficiency.

Their proprietary electronics developments exceed GM’s, and far exceed Tesla’s – although in fairness Tesla’s Premium Prices make it of less importance to the extent that Tesla themselves have said that the cost of charging is officially “Not Material”.

What is interesting is their comment that all vehicles from the early 2020’s will be at least a Plug-in hybrid. Their investment in high-efficiency electronics will certainly pay off for them.

They didn’t actually say every vehicle made from mid 2020s on would be at least a plug-in hybrid. They said by that time, all their vehicles would have that option, much like they currently have hybrid versions of several vehicle models alongside gasoline only versions. I see that as clever wording to hedge their bets.

Still, I look forward to seeing if Toyota’s reputation for quality and reliability holds for their electric cars when they are released.

Yeah, sorry my mind was in 2 different places. Meant to say Plain-old-hybrid.

Notice how others, like Ford and VW, can make vague announcements for the same timeline but the response is so different. Why?

because they weren’t the last ones to do it. nor did they trying selling dirty alternatives under a ”greener’ vehicle guise. (fuel cells). okay vw obviously did but I don’t know who in their right mind ever thought a diesel was something to be deemed green.

Ford made big bets on Aluminum Trucks and Turbo charged engines to reduce weight and fuel consumption.

If Toyota was so big on efficiency they would not have introduced the fuel cell vehicles. It’s not just the efficiency of the vehicle, but of the entire hydrogen infrastructure that has to be accounted for.

Hydrogen is a storage medium. It will be used for collection and distribution solar & wind energy.

Fuel-cell vehicle will coexist with plug-in vehicles, as will batteries.

In other words, a one-size-fits-all solution isn’t realistic on the grand scale.

That is how I see it too.
Hydrogen will also be a good option option for the really big stuff such as boats and planes.

Incorrect. Hydrogen is an energy carrier.

https://energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/downloads/infographic-hydrogen-clean-flexible-energy-carrier

Btw, I’m not an advocate of hydrogen in light duty applications. The link above is informational only.

Toyota’s interest in fuel cells is primarily because of Japan I believe. Japan is a small country with a lot of people, they can’t plaster solar panels all over the country and they don’t want to be reliant on nuclear forever. At the same time they need to get off fossil fuels. So what can they do?

Apparently the national strategy is to import hydrogen for their RE needs. This hydrogen can be produced elsewhere where there are plenty of solar resources such as Australia and then shipped to Japan. And because Japan will have lots of hydrogen it makes sense to run their cars on hydrogen, hence Toyota’s interest in FCEV.

Well, Toyota will be selling 30,000 HFCVs per year by 2020. And 4 years ago they said they’d be cost-competitive with battery electric by 2030. So, presumably they think they’ll be sell lots of them.

That’s seems very unlikely (30,000 H2 cars by 2020).

I would say that maybe by 2030, while million and millions of EVs are sold.

By 2030 the FCV will be dead. Sales zero.

Toyota also said they would fully back the Scion brand, a year before it was discontinued.

“Yet despite Mr. Cole’s partial denial, IEV’s covers the Toyota Mirai but not the old Prius – whereas I consider both vehicles mostly the same…”

InsideEVs’ “About” page says “If It Doesn’t Have A Plug, It Doesn’t Appear At InsideEVs!”

Obviously that’s not entirely true; IEVs does occasionally have coverage of some non-plug-in EVs. But PEVs are definitely the focus of this website.

Jay Cole has said that originally IEVs did not have any coverage of FCEVs, but that due to many reader requests they decided to add coverage of “fool cell” cars.

Bill

Toyota’s Trucks and large SUVs have the worst fuel economy in their class.
True of most of Toyota’s non-hybrid lines.

Well that’s an argument to have with Star Trek John. The Japanese have found that the US based manufacturers are REAL competition and make excellent products with great value and fuel economy. Its their most profitable product. The closest I’ve come to actually purchasing a Toyota was a crappy unreliable used Datsun I had for a few years when I was a kid. But I was always impressed with Toyota from years back that their cheapest model had coated brake lines so that they wouldn’t corrode in the rocksalt common around here in our winters. Whereas – American Manufacturers like the Old GM gave us cars like the VEGA (Motor Trend’s “Car of the Year”) that would last around 45,000 miles prior to its unlined aluminum block engine would warp. Good design was left for the ‘premium products’ if then. I had a 1995 Buick Riviera where the brake lines all corroded that would not have happened if it was a cheap Toyota Corolla or Yaris. And of course HONDA, with their ‘world’s most reliable engine’ went 1,000,000 miles with routine maintenance, and maybe just one overhaul. People on this blog constantly blame GM for the ongoing ignition SAGA, but… Read more »

Great news. I was worried that their neglect of EV’s was harming this great company and its employees. Whew!

No doubt they are kicking themselves big time!

Just in time for primetime!

This means Mazda and Subaru are sure to follow. If (and that’s a big IF) it ends up being the case this is a huge turn-around. Honestly I think Toyota owes the EV industry a bit of an apology. Let’s make it in the form of great EVs!

Toyota and Mazda have a joint agreement to build an EV factory in the USA.
Mazda on its own can not afford.
Denso EV parts plant in the USA too.

Mazda & Toyota have an agreement to build an assembly plant in the U.S. Nothing was said about building EVs at the plant.

IEVs:
“Toyota Announces Massive Electric Car Rollout, 10 EVs By Early 2020s”

Toyota:
“Toyota will accelerate the popularization of BEVs with more than 10 BEV models to be available worldwide by the early 2020s, starting in China, before entering other markets―the gradual introduction to Japan, India, United States and Europe is expected.”

KUDOS to InsideEVs – this is the first time I have seen you use the term “EV” in the meaning “BEV”, which is what ought to be the default interpretation! 🙂

(Not that I would mind if the electricity was stored in a supercapacitor or something. The point is even a hybrid with a plug is still a hybrid. A BEV – or a super-capacitor EV for that matter – isn’t an energy hybrid, since it is using only electricity as its energy source.)

Meanwhile for Nissan its all ahead full in Japan.

Where will they get their batteries for this venture?

Panasonic is already short of batteries:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory-creating-worldwide-battery-cell-shortage/
just for the production of a few Model S and X.
We are talking about millions of BEVs and dozens of gigafactories. Producing a few compliance cars is easy. Producing millions of BEVs needs more proof how they want to get the approx. 50kWh(cap) per car.

Panasonic is selling all their *cylindrical* cells to Tesla but they produce other formats for other companies. Tesla is the only one currently using cylindrical cells and that is unlikely to change so there shouldn’t be much of a problem.

“Where they have been getting them from so far, Panasonic.”

Yeah, good luck with that. *Snicker*

Toyota may be able to get enough batteries to build a few PEVs (BEVs and PHEVs) in compliance-car numbers, or perhaps slightly more — like the Chevy Bolt EV — but if they are serious about building long-range PEVs in large numbers, numbers to rival the production of even just one of the more popular gasmobiles, then just like BYD and Tesla, they will have to build their own high-volume battery factories so they can control their own rate of production.

With the looming near-term EV battery shortage, those who have been slowest to move towards making their own BEVs are going to be in the biggest danger of being one of the legacy auto makers left holding the bag, without any significant battery supply. At the moment at least, Toyota appears to be rather high up on that list!

Toyota has a long and deep partnership with Panasonic, who has partnered with Toyota in a company that supplied ~10 million hybrid batteries to Toyota already. Expect that to continue and seamlessly expand into PEVs and BEVs.

You are grossly underestimating the abilities of the largest and best automaker on the planet. Panasonic would be stupid to do anything other than partner as tightly with Toyota as they can.

Kudo’s to Tesla for also forming a tight partnership with Panasonic … about 15-20 years after Toyota, lol.

Yes late adapter looses cred and momentum.
Market shares are lost and not easy to get back.
But still they will be a major player.

The old guys at the top are to blame.

Time to retire them old ones because they are stodgy and late to the party.

Common sense and massive Scientific and technological advances from Europe and China will lead the way to an all electric and computer savvy vehicle world. Let cell phones be the example of just how fast better technologies can permeate a society. Computers did this to the American Business world recently. in an instant Steno Pads were out. Remember the typist pools? Gone! Floors and floors of bookkeepers? Excel replaces them?

Is this a major shift or them just letting their plans become public? Anyone thinking Toyota didn’t have electrication plans would be fairly naive of how multi billion dollar corporations work. For Toyota, GM, VW it’s more about when not if.

We have known about the plans for quite awhile. The entire passenger fleet being offered as hybrids is a positioning maneuver to make the plug-in option an easy next step… at low cost…

Corolla hybrid
Camry hybrid
RAV4 hybrid
CH-R hybrid

Each of those await the opportunity to exploit the “Prime” update similar to what was delivered for Prius.

Being simple & affordable is key and the HSD design makes that realistic.

+1
So very very true as huge buearactic corportations do not change directions on a dime and they have been working behind the secens for some time…
I am guessing they have secret plans to greatly speed up the BEV rollout if needed but they and all of the legacy auto makers dont want to speed up the transation they want to slow it down…

It’s striking how attitudes changed when Beijing made its intentions known.

(⌐■_■) Trollnonymous

I wonder if they will use their solid state batteries.

Any news on that?

Dont know about SS but Toyota just announced they will work closely with Panasonic…

pushevs.com/2017/12/18/toyota-panasonic-together-improve-prismatic-battery-cells/

Trollnonymous asked: “I wonder if they will use their solid state batteries. “Any news on that?” Toyota is still bravely trying to claim that they are gonna get their solid state batteries into production real soon now, but the reality is that they are no longer claiming a 2020 start date for that, and are now vaguely saying “2020’s”. If Toyota is actually pinning its hopes on putting an advanced battery tech into commercial production when it’s still in the laboratory demo stage, then Toyota’s upper management is even more foolish and clueless than I thought they were, when they were claiming that there was no future in BEVs! There are a lot of companies out there trying hard to turn solid state batteries from something seen only in laboratory samples, into something practical than can be mass-produced at an affordable cost. I see no reason to think that Toyota has any better chance than any other of being the one company or university research team which will be the one to succeed at that. As far as the EV revolution goes, Toyota appears to be running to the end of the path it has chosen for itself rather fast.… Read more »

Can we exercise a little vision and not shut down all the nuke reactors just yet? Same goes for Germany and Japan. Seems awfully short sighted.

Unfortunately it seems that’s a trend that will likely not reverse. Last I looked, Japan had still not restarted more than one or two of its commercial nuclear reactors, Germany had shut down all of theirs, and France is apparently not planning on building any more despite their very clear success in using and depending on clean, safe nuclear power. That is, safer than any other form of power generation except solar, contrary to the public hysteria over “RADIATION!!” promoted by the news media and by Big Oil.

“…France is apparently not planning on building any more…”

Look at how their project at Flamanville is going and you’ve got all the answers you need.

Nuclear is being priced out of the market by renewables. Simple economics 101.

saying nuclear power is ” clean and safe” is like saying lithium ion batteries are clean and safe just because no one has punctured a hole in them yet.

Wow. This is big news. GM, VW, Toyota – the world’s biggest players, all now with very aggressive programs to transform their products to electrified.

I hope Toyota joins GM, VW, Ford, BMW, Kia/Hyundai, and Honda and adopts the SAE CCS DCFC standard and not the Japanese Chademo standard. To make DCFC stations economic and ubiquitous, we need a single DCFC protocol and plug
standard.

No we don’t.

It’s just a cable, a plug and some software.

Yeah we do. When we get to the higher kW levels, that is a very expensive extra plug and cable. When EVs are mainstream and we need 10,000 public charger stations, we need a single protocol and hardware standard.

Aren’t EV owners, charger manufacturers, charging companies, and auto manufacturers glad that the AC Level 1/Level 2 plugs for all EVs in north America (except Tesla) use the same SAE J1772 plug and protocol? Can you imagine the problems if there were 2 or three different standards?

“It’s just a cable, a plug and some software.” No, it most definitely is far more important than that. Having several competing formats for EV charging is holding back the market for EVs just as much as it would hold back the market for gasmobiles if there were 4 or 5 different shapes for gas pump nozzles, and if gasmobiles could only fill up at gas stations which had their kind of nozzle. It’s stupid for the various EV makers not to get together to establish a true universal EV charging standard. It’s as foolish and retarding to the EV revolution as the “VHS vs. BetaMAX” format war was for home video. A true universal EV charging standard covering at least the USA/Canada and Europe would benefit all EV makers outside China. That would be a win-win-win for every company which actually wants to make and sell long-range PEVs in large numbers. (One might suggest that the reason legacy auto makers have not already agreed on such a standard is because they don’t at all want to see the EV revolution eat into their sales of gasmobiles!) China has its own separate EV charging standard, and that’s another part of… Read more »

It’s amazing that oil products caught on with Gasoline (petrol), diesel, and other incompatible fossil fuel variants like natural gas powering vehicles for 100 years.

No, we don’t need a single plug for EVs (nor will we get one).

Actually, a single standard would make innovation difficult, like the new Megacharger for Tesla Semi trucks.

Current semi trucks use diesel, and nobody is arguing that they should be gasoline compatible.

So, in 13 years time they’ll only be 5 years behind GM.

Very ambitious.

They’re all constrained by the same battery tech. Let’s be real here, the battery companies are driving this, not the auto manufacturers. They can catch up to GM easily if they want to.

When Panasonic, LG, etc. has amazingly good and reasonably affordable cells, any car company can design a good EV within the normal product dev cycle.

This only changes when a car company owns the rights to a better battery technology. I just don’t see that yet.

It’s not just how good or how bad EV batteries are, it’s the amount of production. The Ford Motor Co. built its Rouge River industrial complex, which for the time was an extreme example of “vertical integration”, so it could rapidly ramp up production of the Model T. Similarly, Tesla is building its Gigafactory One complex, also called an example of extreme vertical integration, so it can rapidly ramp up production of the Model 3. In both cases, with the Model T and the Model 3, it was and is impossible for the auto maker to rely on outside suppliers, because no supplier existed at the time which was willing to ramp up production anywhere near as fast as the auto maker needed to grow rapidly. It’s all very well to say “Well, if you give the battery makers enough years, they will respond to demand and will eventually produce enough batteries for everyone.” Yeah, that is probably true, just like independent auto parts manufacturers finally grew the parts supply chain to the point that Ford found it made more sense to largely abandon its River Rouge complex in favor of buying cheaper parts from suppliers. But during its period… Read more »

Battery production may not be infinitely elastic but it is growing. Whether Tesla sales worldwide will double in 2018 or “merely” grow by 50%, they will grow as the 3 production comes on line.
Given the shortcomings of the GM products, their production may grow by a smaller amount, but until the Bolt is more appealing and comfortable, the Bolt will be lucky to sell 4,000 a month.
Real EV production increases in the short term, i.e. next 2 to 3 years, is going to come from Tesla, BMW, Chrysler, Hyundai and Kia. GM sales of the Bolt will grow, but they self-limited it by choosing a subcompact with a bulbous Sonic-like look, thereby tainting it in the eyes of many car buyers, given Chevrolet’s history of building poor small cars, like the Chevette or the Aveo. But the Bolt is a better vehicle than most people realize.

That is true. The battery *is* the EV. It defines every operating characteristic of the car. This is why sensible people are saying that Tesla is lacking a “competitive moat” since they are just using commercial off-the-shelf stuff in their cars. The only difference is that Tesla seemingly doesn’t care that they are losing tons of money on their cars.

Comparing bottom-up to top-down approaches, which are fundamentally different, makes no sense.

Instead, consider goals. Think about how far away is GM still is to offering a variety of platforms that are affordable.

Toyota is talking about 2030, where GM has plans for 2019 & 2020. On top of that, they’ve been selling plugins since 2010. Right now, you can buy a GM BEV or PHEV. It’s well past the “planning” phase. Toyota needs to get it into gear, and sooner that “the mid 20’s”. You need real-world experience with EVs and customers. Without the products, it’s all just theory.

5.5 million represents a conversion of half their entire annual production, from guzzler to something using electricity. That “GM has plans for 2019 & 2020” does not represent anywhere near that volume, not even close.

Comments posted here about low-hanging fruit (early adopter sales) doesn’t take into consideration how much more difficult it is be successful in the next sales. It’s the tortoise & hare story playing out right before our eyes.

It appears to me that both GM and Toyota are on similar timelines. GM’s November presentation showed approximately doubling EV sales every 2 years, taking GM from 100,000 in 2018 to 1 million (10% of sales) in 2026. Extrapolating to 2030, that would be about 4-5 million in sales.

Notice the pivot john1701a always makes. Past lessons are not learned, thus Toyota will continue the path of TLTL, “too little, too late”.

Claiming “it’s all just theory” requires some serious denial.

50,000 is the expectation for Prius Prime/PHV sales worldwide this year.

It has a plug. It delivers EV miles. It is real-world experience.

Claiming that Toyota has yet to release a real EV or PHEV requires some serious denial.

Maybe they’re finally realizing what a joke they’ve become.

Heck, maybe GM will license a real PHEV system to them, like they did for the Honda Clarity!

“Claiming that Toyota has yet to release a real EV or PHEV requires some serious denial.”

Not to say you’re wrong, but it seems to be ignoring the elephant in the room to say this in response to a press release where Toyota claims “the launch of the world’s first PHEV, the Prius PHV, in 2012.”

Toyota claiming it’s belated, less-than-half-baked, tiny-ranged PHEV was the “world’s first” isn’t merely a whopper of a lie, it’s such an obvious lie that I have to wonder WTF is going on with their marketing department?!?!

My phrasing wasn’t the best there. I meant to say they have not yet released a serious PHEV or EV of their own.

John you will no doubt agree to disagree, but when the Mirai was released, the Toyota Spokesman said that “This car is MORE IMPORTANT to the future of Toyota than the Pruis”. To me, that was at once, a silly statement, and/or a strategic miscalculation. All the hydrogen people ‘rested on their laurels’ to the extent that it was always pushed ‘on the back burner’ real problems like the $3.00 / KG Dispensing operating cost, the poor lifetimes of the 10-15,000 PSI compressors, and other little ‘details’ that these BIG IDEA MEN just assume will solve themselves. So, in late 2017, we have some H2 stations in California, and precious little anywhere else in the states. Who wants to buy a car you can’t drive anywhere? Even if an ev could only plug into ‘110’ – you might have to wait a while but the fact remains that you will always be able to refuel the car (while you watch paint dry, and grass grow) anywhere in the country. Meanwhile BEV’s and PHEV’s have become so popular WORLD WIDE that countries are (to the enviable position of EV’s) LEGISLATING THEIR USE. H2 vehicles had a shot at this years ago… Read more »

Fuel-Cell is a long-term development project, never intended for any type of volume production until sometime in the next decade.

Why are so many here refusing to accept that by trying to force it into the same category as plug-in vehicles?

Notice the backtracking john1701a does here.

Just tired of the guy. Pivoting his own opinions and stretching others.

John1701A: “…Fuel-Cell is a long-term development project…”. No doubt. Trouble is – the ‘RACE’ between Utility Plug-in vehicles and Hydrogen vehicles has reached a real FORK in the road. Utility Plug-in battery vehicles (whether pure BEV or PHEV) have had 2 huge gusts of wind behind them: 1). Much Cheaper, somewhat longer-lasting batteries – thereby allowing adequately sized ‘gas tanks’. 2). China LEGISLATING utility plug-in purchases. Meanwhile, as I say, the LITTLE DETAILS all the BIG IDEA GUYS think will just solve themselves have pushed the effective price of H2 vehicles down to a small Niche market. If it weren’t for the Media, I would have no idea there even was such a thing. The one thing I really don’t understand is why CNG vehicles never took off, as they have in Italy, India, and Iran, amoungst other places. CNG vehicles have an excellent ‘wells to wheels profile’, have a lower ‘carbon footprint’ (for those who care about that), and make economic sense in places where Natural Gas is double the price it is here. Home refueling was possible 15 years ago – but I can’t believe it was a crappy PHILL branded home compressor that killed the whole idea… Read more »

It’s political. Fuel cell advancement is big with regulators in Japan and with the CARB board in California, so Toyota elected to appease them. Eventually, reason will prevail as FCV sales continue to falter year-after-year as compared to BEV sales despite massive government-funded infrastructure efforts.

Yup. And at least at one time, sales of “fool cell” cars in Japan received total incentives up to nearly USD $20,000. I don’t know if it’s still that high, but there is a very obvious incentive for Toyota and Honda and other Japanese auto makers to keep making fool cell cars, even though they will never be practical, and the non-subsidized price for H2 fuel will never be affordable.

Again, that’s established fact, not opinion.

“H2 vehicles had a shot at this years ago if all the hydrogen people stuck to their knitting…”

No, not possible. There is no technological solution to the basic impracticality and absurdly inefficient thermodynamics of trying to use H2 for an everyday transportation fuel. To claim otherwise is either a display of scientific ignorance or wishful thinking, or both.

I don’t know why we need to keep making this argument. It’s like those promoting the “hydrogen economy” hoax keep arguing the world is flat. It just isn’t, period. Fact, not opinion.

You are clueless here. Thermodynamically, H2 vehicles are higher efficiency than ICE vehicles… This fact is of no importance to me since it is a myopic view – the same as I view comparisons in efficiency between ICE cars and BEV’s myopic and wrong-headed.

Hydrogen vehicles theoretically can be made to work. I just don’t think they will ever do so – seeing as I don’t see many ‘free sources of H2’ being as prolific as promoters claim, unless there is a true technology advance which everyone there is looking for.

Crappy Nuclear Plant designs have for decades poisoned the desire amoungst the general populace for more of them, in the ‘WEST’ at least. Free Hydrogen from them will have to come from future Chinese and Russian designs. Russia, far advanced in Nuclear Technology, has the only commercial ‘fast breeder’ plants in operation.

Photosynthetic direct production of H2 also has yet to reach commercial viability.

So when Star Trek John says these are “Long Term projects”, he’s more right than he realizes. I think Jim Kirk will have been born by the time they’re practical.

Hopefully they follow through and have some solid EV/PHEV offerings. Their efforts so far have been pitiful.

Dropping development of FCVs would be a great step toward being taken seriously.

Toyota has vast resources and capabilities so when they or China makes a decision for them they can cat,h up quickly. Wouldn’t be surprised that they sell 100,000 BEV’s in 2021.

I for one am very intrested to see Chinas 2019 BEV auto sales when their EV mandate becomes enforcable for the auto companies…
Toyota is currently the number 5 brand in Chinese auto sales…

bestsellingcarsblog.com/2017/12/china-november-2017-geely-and-baojun-push-forward-with-new-records/

As many surmised, this isn’t an announcement of anything not already known.

Yes, they will have a China market EV, because they have to. In order to meet CARB-ZEV rules in the ten US states that have adopted those rules, Toyota will likely have to also sell an EV in the US (there are currently zero hydrogen stations in most of those states, and zero in the remaining 40 states). The same is likely true in Japan and Europe to lesser degrees.

So, Toyota is doing what the regulations and markets require.

Nothing more… nothing less.

As to expanding hybrids, that’s been their market all along.

Everybody knows “electrification” is merely hybrids and hydrogen cars in Toyota-speak. Yes, they have to build some EVs. Yes, they may open the secrets to more advanced (not lithium) batteries, and so will everybody else.

Ha ha!Toyota is late to the game, and now this!

I think Toyota should make cars that run on hot air.

Since they produce industrial size quantities of it.

😆 😆 😆

+ infinity

Who cares about Toyota? We already have Mercedes, Volkswagen, BMW going electric big time, also Renault/Nissan or GM. I’m asking again – who cares about Toyota? It’s their problem. The world ain’t gonna wait for them.

You’re right! Let’s move on. And for the record, I for one don’t believe they have a “secret plan”. I think they’re scrambling.

They are just playing the same game that all other major is doing. Basically releasing few “compliance+” vehicles to meet the requirement while buying time to let the others lower the cost of the technology before they leap in.

As much as I deride Toyota for its devotion to FCVs, it is difficult to say that Toyota has to play catch up when its Prius is 3rd place behind Model S and Bolt and ahead of the Volt in InsideEVs plug-in sales list.

That’s only because of marketing; in many cases, a PHEV Prius is actually less expensive than a non-plug-in Prius.

Things will be different once the market for EVs really takes off. The Prius has had its day, just like the BlackBerry did. And just like the BlackBerry after the debut of the iPhone, the Prius won’t remain an EV sales leader for long after Tesla is producing the Model 3 and the Model Y in large numbers!

Normally Toyota sells a million hybrids in 8 – 9 months, but this year it has lagged behind and that’s why even 10 months later they have not sold their 11 million’th hybrid. This is primarily because of the slowdown in the Prius sales. I observed that while the Gen-2 and Gen-3 Prius has space for storing tool boxes below the trunk mat, the Gen-4 Prius has only enough space to store just the tools and not the toolbox.

Now they have stopped selling the Prius V as well and I am wondering whether Toyota is interested in selling hybrids, let alone the plugins and electrics.

They are just giving this news to discourage people from buying Model-3.

The replacement for Prius V was spotted being tested in Germany Bach in October. It’s transforming from wagon to crossover.

Sweet. Thanks for the news. I was wondering.

Yes John, You and I agree that Toyota has Huge technology (low saturation voltage semiconductors, etc.) and Manufacturing expertise in ALL the necessary fields, except batteries, and for those it relies on other Asian high-technology leaders, in both Fuel Cell, ICE, and Hybrid (Planetary gear sets) designs.

Where We Differ is that the admittedly very Impressive Prius Prime is only currently as far as Toyota feels like going.

They could make a Stupendous car if they wanted to, but they don’t.

I’m not criticizing them since they have to make money in the real world, and don’t need any armchair quarterbacks.

Seems BMW has sold 100,000 plugins this year as promised.

Seems they are getting an upper edge over Tesla.

Hope someone in Toyota reads this.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171218-bmw.html

BMW is selling mostly relatively weak plug-ins. Their sales of strong plug-ins like the i3 don’t come close to Tesla’s sales.

Plus Model 3 is ramping up … Tesla going to blow everyone else’s plug-in sales away soon. Only other plug-in I expect might ramp up anywhere near as fast is the Prime, which Toyota seems to be aiming squarely at the mainstream car buyer simply on price compared to other Priuses.

“Seems they are getting an upper edge over Tesla.”

Please tell us you’re kidding.

Next year the Tesla Model 3 is almost certainly going to outsell all other PEVs put together, or at least all outside the China market.

Toyota’s press release reads in part:

“Toyota has been a leader in making vehicles while keeping the environment in mind. This is evident through… the launch of the world’s first PHEV, the Prius PHV, in 2012.”

I’m amazed that in ~87 comments, no one else has pointed out what a whopper of a lie this is from Toyota!

I’m sure it will come as a great surprise to many that Toyota’s 2012 Prius Plug-In was the “world’s first” PHEV!

It will come as a great surprise to BYD, whose F3DM actually was the first production PHEV, in March 2010.

It will also come as a great surprise to Chevrolet, whose Volt PHEV debuted in December 2010, and was sold in Europe as the Opel Ampera.

Toyota’s greenwashing has in the past been guilty of a very large amount of spin, exaggeration and stretching the truth, but here I think they have reached a new low.
?

This was predictable (and I think we actually did predict this several times). I also predict when Toyota finally makes their Bolt EV knockoff, they will say “The EV has FINALLY ARRIVED!”.

Wow, that is a whopper of a lie. They are seriously deluded.

Apparently most of us didn’t bother reading the press release in detail.

Pushi is disqualified from criticizing here regarding the VOLT, since he has repeatedly claimed GM LIED saying the 2011 VOLT couldn’t get 230 mpg as advertised.

My used 2012 volt (that I had for 6 months prior to swapping it for a bolt) arrived with the trip odometer at 15,000 miles and 236 MPG. Pretty good lie for a well used, USED product.

The only CONSISTENT position Pushi has Is calling others trolls, claiming they’re gaming the stock market, and in general insulting other intelligent commenters, and now companies.

Meanwhile he stomps his feet saying things are impossible when real world examples of what he claims are impossible actually exist, for instance, the Toyota Mirai- of which you at least have to hand it to Toyota – they convinced the Head of CARB that She should Drive One.

Incorrect. There was a tiny fleet of Gen-2 conversions rolled out in 2009, followed up by Gen-3 conversions in 2010.

August 2010, a number of Prius owners got to drive them, each for a few days. I got to. Recharged it in my own garage too. Took lots of pictures, like this one…

http://john1701a.com/prius/thumbnails/Prius-PHV_Summer_02.jpg

>> Toyota’s greenwashing has in the past been guilty of a very large amount of spin, exaggeration and stretching the truth, but here I think they have reached a new low.

Being poorly informed will give that impression… as confirmed in this case.

Rose colored glasses are blinding to the truth.

Know your audience. It’s quite clear that the majority here don’t recognize how vital that advice is. Applying the early-adopter perspective to a mass-market audience doesn’t work in many situations. The problem is called “innovator’s dilemma”. It’s when the formula for success in the initial stage of rollout is assumed to be what’s needed for the stage to follow. In this case, we see how GM’s upgrade of Volt to gen-2 focused on enhancement of the same traits which drew sales for gen-1. That clearly didn’t result in the much hoped for sales growth; instead, the opposite happened. We’ve been witnessing sales shrink. The reason why should be obvious. GM listened to the same audience that jumped on tax-credit savings and low-lease opportunities for Volt, who have since moved on to Bolt… because it was the next step in electrification: large-capacity batteries. Abandoning everyday consumers for the pursuit of the latest & greatest is perfectly fine, when your purpose is pushing the leading edge forward. That is a horrible mistake though, if you are trying to deliver a product for the masses. This group clearly isn’t interested in that audience. They prefer support of the innovation, the push. That’s ok,… Read more »

If you want to see a good example of nosediving sales, just take a look at the Prius. Toyota stopped innovating and wasted a bunch of time on FCVs. Now they’re paying the price and trying to catchup.

60,230 sales in 11 months is mainstream volume, a level for sustainable profit.

The goal is to transition from hybrid to plug-in, so there is an expectation of change.

It comes down to supply. There are virtually none to be purchased in the middle of the United States. When 2017 inventory on the coast sells out and 2018 models begin shipping, we should see a reflection of demand.

Yup, ignore that Prius sales are in decline. As people become more informed and more superior PHEVs/BEVs are released, Prius sales will continue to fall. Toyota’s halo won’t carry them forever. They need some real innovation, or to at least equal the leaders.

Leadership is the ability to get the masses to change, not to impress the enthusiasts.

Watch what happens when the tax-credits get used up for true leadership.

Notice how the subject is always changed, and issues dodged.

Nothing was ignored. Hybrid sales are shifting to plug-in hybrids.

As for carrying a “halo”, look up what that actually means…

Car manufactures want to keep the status quo. Just like big oil they want to keep with technology they are familiar with. Europe, Especially Chine with its mandate, and now California are forcing the car companies hands to go EV!

Here’s the video presentation of the same announcement;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9y5F-l3IyM