China: Tesla Cuts Estimated Delivery Time Of Model 3/Model Y Again

The cars can be now delivered in just a few weeks.

By: Mark Kane

Sep 16, 2022 at 10:17am ET

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For the third time this month, we saw that Tesla reduced the estimated delivery time for its cars in China, which indicates a significant change in the demand/supply relation.

Initially, we heard about the higher availability of the entry-level Made-in-China (MIC) Model Y, which later has been joined also by other four Model 3/Model Y versions.

This week, Tesla has once again applied changes to the estimated delivery time, which now starts at just 1 week and is not expected to be longer than 10 weeks. That's a completely different situation than 12-16 or even 16-20 weeks of waiting earlier this year.

Estimated delivery times (new orders):

Tesla Model 3 RWD (LFP): 1-8 weeks (down from 6-10 weeks)
Tesla Model 3 Performance: 1-10 weeks (down from 6-10 weeks)
Tesla Model Y RWD (LFP): 1-4 weeks (no change)
Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD: 1-10 weeks (down from 10-14 weeks)
Tesla Model Y Performance: 1-10 weeks (down from 6-10 weeks)

We don't know the details, but in general, a shorter delivery time means that the supply of new cars improved over demand.

It would make sense as - according to many reports - the Tesla Giga Shanghai plant was upgraded this summer and already noted a near-record level output in August.

The main question is whether that's the main reason or if maybe something is happening also on the demand side - weakened local demand or reduced export to Europe (where the new Giga Berlin plant is ramping-up Model Y production). We might see an answer for that in the sales stats in the next few months.

What do you think?

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If there is any weakening of demand, Tesla might adjust the pricing accordingly and most likely continue production at full speed - potentially beyond a million MIC cars per year.

An interesting question is also whether estimated delivery times will soon reduce in North America too. There is a really big chance for that, especially since the Giga Texas plant is producing cars equipped with 2170-type battery cells (to not be limited by the availability of the 4680 cell type).